Legend Philly report now posted
Justacommeman
Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭
Walker Proof Digital Album
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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<< <i>We were stumped that out of the 1000+ McClaren coins we brought, we only sold 4 to the public. You certainly can't say price or the quality were factors >>
<< <i>We are not in denial >>
Legend seems to live on the five+ digit coin market.
It appears that they do not seem to do well in the low-four-digit, three-digit coin market.
To make the sort of profit you do on the big coins, you have to sell quite a bit of little coins.
If they desire to sell to the the Hoi Palloi yet the minnows are not biting... you have two choices: Reduced Prices...or...Stagnant Inventory.
Usually, dealers suffer the Stagnant Inventory thing for quite a while, hoping to avoid the ugly economic decision to reduce prices.
And then there is Legend's reputation for high end coins. That works against them; nobody believes they have 'cheap' coins.
Can Legend transition to a high volume, low cost dealer? I don't think they want to. I think this McClaren purchase has put them into a state of internal conflict.
It's at least a happy sort of conflict that involves scads of coins.
[edits] Self correcting grammatically challenged errory things.
<< <i>
<< <i>We were stumped that out of the 1000+ McClaren coins we brought, we only sold 4 to the public. You certainly can't say price or the quality were factors >>
<< <i>We are not in denial >>
Legend seems to live on the five+ digit coin market.
It appears that they do not seem to do well in the low-four-digit, three-digit coin market.
To make the sort of profit you do on the big coins, you have to sell quite a bit of little coins.
If they are not selling to the Hoi Palloi, you have two choices: Reduced Prices...or...Stagnant Inventory.
Usually, dealers suffer the Stagnant Inventory thing for quite a while, hoping to avoid the ugly economic decision to reduce prices.
And then there is Legend's reputation for high end coins. That works against them; nobody believes they have 'cheap' coins.
Can Legend transition to a high volume, low cost dealer? I don't think they want to. I think this McClaren purchase has put them into a state of internal conflict.
It's at least a happy sort of conflict that involves scads of coins. >>
It looks like the "market" views the McClaren coins as overpriced.
<< <i>Sounds like this may be the first, and last, Philly show. >>
That is an absurd comment.
<< <i>Sounds like this may be the first, and last, Philly show. >>
That's probably your wish but don't count on it.
Authorized dealer for PCGS, PCGS Currency, NGC, NCS, PMG, CAC. Member of the PNG, ANA. Member dealer of CoinPlex and CCE/FACTS as "CH5"
<< <i>that's funny, I walked every row in that show and I didn't see any legend booth, they're not a "must stop" for me, but they certainly didn't make an effort to be prominent--front-and-center.. I could be wrong. Ill have to get a map and see where they were >>
Legend was on the left as you entered in the beginning of the isles on the left... if that helps in anyway
Their table was always quite busy so you may have just moved along as it was hard to see the display cases with the hovering crowd.
I did see Laura outside walking back from Redding Terminal Market and she did not look as happy as she was inside the Convention Center...
as you needed a machete to weed out some elbow room just to cross the street.
<< <i>it definitely could have missed them then...again, they're not on my must see list. >>
I was lost many times myself looking at the layout map trying to navigate, a cookie or bread crumb trail might have helped!
<< <i>That they reported mid-day Saturday as one of the strongest times at the show seems to indicate that the working-stiff collector showed up, anyway. >>
An astute observation. Moreover, more "working-stiff" material was brought by dealers to this show than any in the recent past.
Their business seems oriented towards the high spending, wealthy collector. I never cared for her comments here.
<< <i>Sounds like this may be the first, and last, Philly show. >>
Are you laying odds?
not fresh enough I guess.... cause thats a coin that comes up every auction
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i>I saw a 1794 half dollar pcgs vf20 with a cac sticker get brought to their table but she wasnt interested. (it is the only vf20 cac coin)
not fresh enough I guess.... cause thats a coin that comes up every auction >>
But I thought coins that were CAC'd are supposed to be "all there" for the grade and not the kind of mediocre schlock that churns regularly...
<< <i>I saw a 1794 half dollar pcgs vf20 with a cac sticker get brought to their table but she wasnt interested. (it is the only vf20 cac coin)
not fresh enough I guess.... cause thats a coin that comes up every auction >>
I thought Laura was a CAC market maker.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>I saw a 1794 half dollar pcgs vf20 with a cac sticker get brought to their table but she wasnt interested. (it is the only vf20 cac coin)
not fresh enough I guess.... cause thats a coin that comes up every auction >>
But I thought coins that were CAC'd are supposed to be "all there" for the grade and not the kind of mediocre schlock that churns regularly... >>
I'm not 100% sure, but I think price also factors into the decision of whether or not to buy something.
<< <i>I'm not 100% sure, but I think price also factors into the decision of whether or not to buy something. >>
How so when you had $1.2M in sales the week before the show
<< <i>
<< <i>Sounds like this may be the first, and last, Philly show. >>
That is an absurd comment. >>
Sorry, I forgot the market is actually white hot double nuclear and can support more large shows.
I must strongly disagree with that assesment! I sold a ton of nice Indians and Lincoln's at the show. Maybe I pulled them away from the Legend table.
<< <i>
<< <i>I saw a 1794 half dollar pcgs vf20 with a cac sticker get brought to their table but she wasnt interested. (it is the only vf20 cac coin)
not fresh enough I guess.... cause thats a coin that comes up every auction >>
I thought Laura was a CAC market maker. >>
Legend retails only CAC coins [with very few exceptions], but would decline to purchase a CAC coin if it can't use it for inventory or wholesale it. CAC itself is the market maker.
<< <i>CAC is a market maker? Really now what a neat little racket for them. If this is true, where on their website are these prices posted? >>
I fail to see how you draw the conclusion that if they are a market maker it's a 'neat little racket' for them and that if they are their bids must be posted on their website.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I saw a 1794 half dollar pcgs vf20 with a cac sticker get brought to their table but she wasnt interested. (it is the only vf20 cac coin)
not fresh enough I guess.... cause thats a coin that comes up every auction >>
I thought Laura was a CAC market maker. >>
Legend retails only CAC coins [with very few exceptions], but would decline to purchase a CAC coin if it can't use it for inventory or wholesale it. CAC itself is the market maker. >>
Search through her retail archives, there's 2 XF coins that she's got there, the rest are AU+ If Legend bought that coin it might be the first VF they ever handled.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I saw a 1794 half dollar pcgs vf20 with a cac sticker get brought to their table but she wasnt interested. (it is the only vf20 cac coin)
not fresh enough I guess.... cause thats a coin that comes up every auction >>
I thought Laura was a CAC market maker. >>
Legend retails only CAC coins [with very few exceptions], but would decline to purchase a CAC coin if it can't use it for inventory or wholesale it. CAC itself is the market maker. >>
i guess i am slow today. CAC is the name of a company. Who do you
goto to get an offer for your cac stickered coins? JA only? Was a rep
at the show?
I am just curious.
Yes it does. But a definition of neat and fresh shouldn't include bargain basement price but that's usually what is meant by a fresh deal. Something that has been off the market long enough where the seller can't quite nail down the current value, and usually misses the target by a wide margin. Fresh apparently also means buying stuff off the market 5-10 yrs or more. And by that definition buying back anything a dealer has sold within 5-10 yrs would not be a fresh deal...and often something to avoid, especially if you are the bearer of bad news that the coins have lost value in that time frame.
I found the gold analysis quite interesting though questionable. Legend got generic gold wrong in previous years and either seems to be late to the party when it's moving up or bashes it at the first sign of weakness. That's how the gold market works for the majority though.
LISTEN UP GOLD BUGS!
Gold died at this show. How can it die when SPOT is moving up? Easy! The premiums are way too high and the major market makers are flooded with too much product. It appears gold is being driven up by the traders and NOT by real demand.
When the show began, two of the world's biggest market makers in generics completely stopped buying the stuff. That killed the show for many smaller dealers who rely on selling their generics to raise cash. We heard whispers of "product" dropping as much as 20% shortly. They simply ran the prices to fast and too high and now they are stuck. Too many people are sellers. Demand is weak at the moment for gold generics (all the crisis buying took place a year ago).
THIS WEEK WILL BE A RARE TIME IN THE MARKET WHEN GOLD MAY RISE, BUT YOU CAN ONLY SELL CERTAIN GENERIC GOLD FOR LESS THAN WHAT YOU"LL SEE LISTED ON MANY WHOLESALE SHEETS. AND THATS IF DEALERS ARE EVEN BUYING.
We suggest you watch GEM MS65+ generic gold. There are some exceptional "buys" these days-assuming the coin is all there (we suggest you buy these only with CAC stickers). Overgraded sloppy stuff will always be dangerous to own. We think that once gold stops its unrealistic run, prices will settle fast and trading will resume. You still can't go out and buy any quantity of MS66 Saints at show or a GEM NON 09D $5 Indian.
Gold just died at the Philly show? You mean like like coins died in April 1980 at Central States? Gold stocks got weaker the past 2 weeks as the price of gold moved up. They peaked before the bullion gold did. Leveraged items like gold stocks and generic gold coin MS62-MS66 tend to do that. No surprise there. Heritage for example was probably still trying to sell off inventory that had bought at Long Beach. Why would anyone expect Philly to demnstrate any strength in generics? Typically generics get weak for a few weeks or a month after a major show until the excess is skimmed off. Generics were extremely weak following the 2009 FUN show. It took almost a month to even get them off the ground and then within 2-3 additional weeks they went up 20-30%. Promotions tend to come to a screeching halt when the price of gold stops increasing. The enthusiasm has to be worked off first. Generic gold coins if you check prices in the fall of 2007 are basically at similar levels now then when gold was in the $700's and $800's. You can even go back to the first run to $730 in early 2006 and see many generic gold coins priced much higher than they are today at $995 gold. MS65 $3 Indians and $5 Indians were $24K to $30K coins at that time....today more like $15K. Even common stuff like MS64 $2-1/2 Libs were higher in price. About the only exceptions might be MS62-MS64 $20 Libs and some of the Saints. I don't know how one concludes that the premiums are way too high at $1000 gold when they are for the most part down from 2006-2007. Maybe a fresh look at the 8 year gold chart might be of some help.
Someone has been buying all those PF $50 AGE's at $1700+retail. I doubt they are being bought by traders. The same goes with MS65 and MS66 Saints. When/if gold breaks the $1033 and moves up higher, watch the excess generic gold get siphoned off within days. You won't be able to find it. Expecting most generics to fall back to November 2008 pricing (equivalent to 2005 levels) is hoping for a lot. Gold stocks fell off 65-75% on average in 2008. The fact that they have doubled and tripled since doesn't necessarily imply that premiums are now absurd. No different with generic gold.
Gold on an unrealistic run? It already hit $1000 18 months ago and twice since. It has spent all but 2 months or so in 2009 above $900. In 2008 it spent less than 110 days above $900. Maybe it's more unrealistic to figure McClaren coins are priced properly if only 4 retail sales occured. J6P just may think that $200-$1000 per coin is a formidable purchase, especially in this economy where he is saving his money for future expenses in the event of job loss or a cutback in hours or pay. I do agree that CAC MS65 gold if nice can be great buys considering many are far nicer than the typical quality encountered. This is esp. true with MS65/66 Saints where the pass rate is very small. But I would be careful about getting one's gold market advice from coin dealers who don't deal in bullion, don't follow the PM markets and may have no idea of all the factors that influence the price of gold. It's so much more than $1,000 being just a round number. Gold can fall back another 35% from here, it's not out of the question....neither is a 10% rise.
As far as not being able to sell generics at wholesale gold sheet levels try that same game with gem type and CDN bid, or with MS65-67 post 1930 coinage. "Bid" means nothing right now....well except for fresh and neat coins that have been off the market for ages. And in that case, they're usually way too low.
roadrunner
I'll have to respectfully differ on this too. A fresh deal is exciting because it has not been picked over and may have some coins that you would not typically encounter. Price is secondary to the opportunity to buy a truly great coin. Getting first shot at a neat collection rarely comes with visons of getting a bargain.
Excuse me? Laura has been eerily accurate with her short term generic calls. I defy you to find just ONE instance here where she called it wrong. I can point to several where she called it right. And just in case you missed it, WTCG said the exact same thing about generics in another thread. Come on, roadrunner - you're usually more accurate than this!
As far as price goes, Legend is one of the strongest buyers out there - Laura has proved it time and time again. They just don't deal in VF material. If you want a strong price for your coins, it pays to go to those who specialize in it. You have gem type coins, you go to Legend. You have later date or circulated material, you go elsewhere. That's basic numismatic business, folks.
It is true that trading of generic gold was one major dissapointment. Of the four largest buyers of generic gold, two companies stopped buying gold altogether and two would only buy smaller quantities after some persuasion. For some denominations the bids were off by as much as $200 per coin from the Long Beach levels.
It's there. Go back into some of the older market reports more than a year ago. Since I follow this market very closely and have owned a decent amount of the stuff for over 5 yrs, I know when major calls were dead wrong. She may be on the generic gold bandwagon these days but she was an early basher of it just before it realized some very big gains on major gold moves. In fact I was wondering when the day would come when she would actually become bullish on gold and gold generics. And I can understand her logic at the time, but it didn't pan out. I don't recall if that was the 2005-2006 move or the 2007-2008 move. The basic call was to avoid generic gold at all costs, esp. the saints, because of the poor grading standards and how "common" they were. That never really materialized as the escalating prices just blew away any concerns about grading. I don't forget really bad calls on gold, esp. when they are written by major coin dealers.
As I've said it's not usual to have the major buyers drop all their bids after a big show once they aer stuffed with coins. I recall a number of FUN shows where Heritage basically closed up shop and just didn't want any more gold. This past Long Beach was no exception. As big as these guys are they are tiny compared to the size of the rare coin gold market, and miniscule compared to the entire coin market. Everyone can't sell at once, or even a fraction of everyone, and not expect prices to drop sharply. It's no different in stocks. All us baby boomers can't retire at the same time off of our 5-8% per year stock gains (lol). It's no different if everyone wanted their savings/checking accounts emptied as cash at the same time. The banks couldn't begin to handle it. They'd have to close the doors and refuse redemptions. The generic coin market is particularly thin and illiquid, esp when it comes to generic gold since so much of it can show up in such a short time. It also tends to turn on a dime as soon as gold strengthens to any exent. NGE dropping out hasn't helped, but in time others will replace them as more and more dealers are branching out into gold coins just to be able to sell something for a profit.
Gold is a very volatile compared to tried and true US coins that don't rely on their bullion for additional demand. The volatility is only increasing. What occured this past week is nothing to what is coming down the road as far as price movements when gold moves $100 or greater in a single day. If you sign up for gold one has to realize that it comes with that volatility. Getting caught up in the daily or weekly swings will not only drive you nuts but probably will eventually get you out of the market for good.
roadrunner
dollars, but they will have to be in extraordinary high condition and of unusual
beauty. Even a CAC sticker will not necessarily do it in substituting for real pizzaz!
They do tend to cater to the high end rare type of coins, but lately, I have been able
to pick up some wonderful mid range coins from them, that are really the cat's whiskers.
Camelot
<< <i>In case you missed it:
It is true that trading of generic gold was one major dissapointment. Of the four largest buyers of generic gold, two companies stopped buying gold altogether and two would only buy smaller quantities after some persuasion. For some denominations the bids were off by as much as $200 per coin from the Long Beach levels. >>
That some people pulled the plug on marketing gold recently is of course not earth shattering nor terribly timely news.
Really? I'm assuming that's based on hard cash offers. When I tried to sell some coins that I thought had similar gains, I found out they were in fact imaginery paper profits since there were no real buyers at levels even close to posted bids.
Anyone who bought gold or gold stocks fall of last year is sitting very pretty. It's about buying weakness and selling strength. Anyone buying into peaks has no business buying stocks or coins.
Should you continue to hold those stocks for another 1-3 yrs. You will undoubtedly wish you have bought gold. And if you bought those stocks or coins 18 months ago you'd be buried right now. The average Joe6P who bought stocks 18-24 months ago is hopelessly buried. It would be interesting to know what winners you picked that are at higher levels today than they were 18 months ago. It's a very short list. A lot of people are up around 50% in their stocks over the past 6 months. They are probably also down 30% over the past 2 years and even at best (w/o regards to inflation) over the past 10 years. Inflation would have taken a 30% additional bite on any profits in that time, not to mention paying taxes on those inflationary/imaginary "gains."
It's funny with gold. You can never get anyone who is anti-gold to look at the most relevant picture. My stock brokerage shows a graph of gold vs S&P from 1981-2009 on their latest newsletter. Stocks won 15-1. Now the point of reference has become March 2008: Gold even, stocks down 20-30%. A small win for gold. Odd that no one mentions that one that really counts. Since 2002: Gold up 300% stocks treading water (and down after inflation).
roadrunner
roadrunner
<< <i>Excuse me? Laura has been eerily accurate with her short term generic calls. I defy you to find just ONE instance here where she called it wrong. >>
It's amazing she still has to work for a living...
Every once in a while gold is ok to own, but really it's only done well for two or three streaks over the past 35 years. Other than those streaks - who'd want to hold it? As far as gold stocks go, my broker put me into that after the crash and it's gone up about 11% whereas all my other stocks have more than doubled.
Gold used to be a hedge against a falling dollar, but personally I'd rather own oil stocks as a similar hedge. As a bonsu they pay dividends along the way.
<< <i>All I know is that in the past 18 months I've added 50% to my net worth in coins and stocks and gold is still where it started - zippo appreciation.
Let's break this down as you lumped this all together. You choose gold 18 month's ago to compare for some reason. Why? I bought physical gold and gold futures WITHIN that 18 month period and made a lot of money. Also, did you buy your stock(s) 18 months ago that you realized these type of gains on? I think more likely it's been in the last six months. Not to many stocks are up over the past 18 months. Next to none actually. Your statement above read like a typical brokers report. Pick the weakest spot on the chart and begin your thesis from there : ). I've done it myself. All the best and enjoy your fortune and gains. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Camelot
This statement is where I got the 18 months from. I don't remember exactly when it was, but I do believe that it was about 18 months ago that I went out on a limb and said gold was dead. IIRC, it was around $940 at the time, now it's $990. Not much appreciation over 18 months.
Let's break this down as you lumped this all together.
See the post just before yours.
<< <i>Seems to me it's all about asset allocation and catching the wave. 12 months ago, I moved out of my non core coins into cash, then after the crash in October I moved into stocks. Now it's time to move out of stocks into real estate.
Every once in a while gold is ok to own, but really it's only done well for two or three streaks over the past 35 years. Other than those streaks - who'd want to hold it? As far as gold stocks go, my broker put me into that after the crash and it's gone up about 11% whereas all my other stocks have more than doubled.
Gold used to be a hedge against a falling dollar, but personally I'd rather own oil stocks as a similar hedge. As a bonsu they pay dividends along the way. >>
My preferred method is foreign currencies. Real, CAD$, AUD%, NZ$....these are are up 25 to 45% against the dollar this year. Your broker put you in the wrong gold stocks apparently. I had a couple of 100% winners (AEM and GOLD-randgold)
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I suggest a new broker for starters. Lemme guess, he got you into Barrick and other heavyweights like Newmont? Most of the more nimble intermediates and smaller majors got absolutely hammered by November 2008. They fell 65-75% on average. The most beaten down fell to 10% of their previous highs. Since then I'd say the majority of unhedged goldies have TRIPLED in price. The best of breed have quadrupled. The worst of the breed like Barrick only doubled. If your broker got you a 11% gain, he should be fired. I can't even think of any decent gold or silver stock that since November hasn't doubled to quadrupled. He must have really gone out of his way to find some losers. A simple investment in GDX or one of the top 3 or 4 major gold funds which are almost too heavily diversified and therefore bulky realized no less than a double. Don't feel bad, another coin dealer friend of mine has a Merrill broker and he got him into Barrick as the only choice. While Barrick moved up to a quick double in later November, it has since done almost nothing. And with 9.5 million ounces in hedged gold pre-sold at around $350/ounce, it's no surprise.
Gold has only had 2 streaks - both about a decade....and one still running. Actually if you count the real start of inflation in the 1960's gold actually started causing problems around 1966-1968 when the London Gold pool was trying to keep the market price down. The gold boom was really from 1966-1980. If just went ballistic once Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971. Had the US not maintained a paper price of gold it would have risen long before 1971 in USDollars.
roadrunner
<< <i>You take your yellow gold, I'll take my black gold.
I for one like both
Please don't make me choose
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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My goal in the market was to put my money into the safest companies that I could find that stood a very good chance of doubling within a year and paid in excess of 10% dividend along the way. No gold fund or gold stock or precious metal met that criteria.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I piled my clients money into bonds in the 4th quarter of 2008 thru the first 5 months of 2009..........locked in some great yields for years to come.
I hadn't seen yields like that for 9 to 10 years. All due to the credit crunch and fears of credit implosion.
Began making a move in stocks in April. Trimming now but holding the bonds.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Didn't anyone buy bonds?
I piled my clients money into bonds in the 4th quarter of 2008 thru the first 5 months of 2009..........locked in some great yields for years to come.
I hadn't seen yields like that for 9 to 10 years. All due to the credit crunch and fears of credit implosion.
Began making a move in stocks in April. Trimming now but holding the bonds. >>
My guys are all getting called out of their bond positions. I've never seen such debt issuance as in the last 6 months. Companies are issuing new debt at historically low yields and paying off old debt at higher yields. This is great for the companies, but now I cant find any good yield.
And I'll take green--as in greenbacks--over black or yellow gold.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear