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submitting multiple, identical cards

thehallmarkthehallmark Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭
in Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum
Using all of the data/hunches you've gathered over the years, what is your feeling about submitting a lot of the same card to PSA in the same order versus spreading them out over multiple orders?

For instance, if you have 10 1989 UD Griffeys and they all objectively have great chance at PSA 10 - in your opinion, will it matter if you submit them all at once? Will your success rate go up if you hold some of them back?

Does the population of that card factor in?

If we were talking about a vintage card, would that change this equation? For better or worse?

Comments

  • lsutigers1973lsutigers1973 Posts: 11,093 ✭
    Two recent experiences:

    Subbed a bunch of 76 Topps baseball in awesome condition but spread them out over 3 orders. First order was all 9's and 10's. Second and third orders were 8's, 9's and EOT's.

    Subbed a handfull of 94 UD Arods on one order. All received OC qualifiers.
  • pswebauctionspswebauctions Posts: 177 ✭
    I had three LaDainian Tomlinson rookie cards which were real good candidates for 10s. I added one to each of my subs earlier this year. They all came back 9's even though two were perfectly centered and had perfect corners. I wonder what would have happened if I subbed them all together.

    I read on these boards that some have had some luck when they sub all of the like cards together but to put a solid 9 on the top or the minty 10s. After the grader sees and grades the 9, the 10s will look really good. The only downside I see to this tactic is that the solid 9 must be a 9. If it is a 8 or 8.5 then all of the rest may be doomed to 9s.

    Good luck and may you get all 10s
    WANTLIST
    1992 Topps FB Golds (72% complete)
    1997 Topps FB Minted in Canton (10% complete)
    1999 Topps FB Record Numbers Gold (80% complete)
    2001 Topps FB MVP Promotion (35% complete)
  • CNoteCNote Posts: 2,070 ✭
    Here's what I happened when I subbed multiples on the Group Sub:

    CNote
    274 1 15713834 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. Card US
    275 1 15713835 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. Card US
    276 1 15713836 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. Card US
    277 1 15713837 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. REFRACTOR Card US
    278 1 15713838 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. REFRACTOR Card US
    279 1 15713839 MINT 9 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. REFRACTOR Card US
    280 1 15713840 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. BLUE REFRACTOR Card US
    281 1 15713841 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. BLUE REFRACTOR Card US
    282 1 15713842 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. BLUE REFRACTOR Card US
    283 1 15713843 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. BLUE REFRACTOR Card US
    284 1 15713844 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. GREEN REFRACTOR Card US
    285 1 15713845 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. GREEN REFRACTOR Card US
    286 1 15713846 MINT 9 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. GOLD REFRACTOR Card US
    287 1 15713847 GEM MINT 10 2009 FINEST 17 KEN GRIFFEY JR. GOLD REFRACTOR Card US
  • CDsNutsCDsNuts Posts: 10,092 ✭
    It doesn't really matter in the way that you're thinking. The graders are "trained" to judge each card based on its own merits and not on any outside factors like the other cards on the sub, or the pop report. This is why trimmers get cards through when half the sub is eot, and why people have subs with 9 out of 10 of the same card hitting PSA 10.

    Looking at it from an odds perspective, it makes sense to spread them out a little. Since graders are not consistent across the board, you'll want several shots at hitting the most lenient grader, especially with cards that sell for a ridiculous premium in PSA 10.
  • TomGshotputTomGshotput Posts: 1,358


    << <i>Looking at it from an odds perspective, it makes sense to spread them out a little. Since graders are not consistent across the board, you'll want several shots at hitting the most lenient grader, especially with cards that sell for a ridiculous premium in PSA 10 >>



    A better way to phrase it would be that it doesn't change the odds, it changes the risk. If you submit them all at once, they could all be seen by an easy grader, tough grader, inconsistent grader, second grader, etc.

    If you are willing to submit them multiple times, then never hold back, just keep sending in everything together. If not, spread them out and at least some of them will be graded favorably
    Tom
  • CDsNutsCDsNuts Posts: 10,092 ✭
    A better way to phrase it would be that it doesn't change the odds, it changes the risk. If you submit them all at once, they could all be seen by an easy grader, tough grader, inconsistent grader, second grader, etc.


    Agreed. I was trying to explain keeping the variance lower in laymans terms and fell a little short.
  • SOMSOM Posts: 1,555 ✭✭✭
    "Laymans terms"? On a Hobby message board? To a Senior Member's question?

    Isn't that a bit arrogant?

    Nick
  • RonBurgundyRonBurgundy Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭
    I don't like this approach, I.e., submitting dupes of the same cards on the same order.
    Ron Burgundy

    Buying Vintage, all sports.
    Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
  • billwaltonsbeardbillwaltonsbeard Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭✭
    So you guys think I should spread my 100 ct lot of 87 Topps Jose Cruz cards over several subs?

    It's a very low pop 10, and this lot is super minty fresh!! I plan to make about a million dollars.
    My cards on COMC
  • CDsNutsCDsNuts Posts: 10,092 ✭
    "Laymans terms"? On a Hobby message board? To a Senior Member's question?

    Isn't that a bit arrogant?

    Nick



    Sorry that I don't think the average baseball card hobbyist has a strong understanding of variance as it relates to odds and gambling. I should have more faith in people I guess.
  • hammeredhammered Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭
    I sub a lot of 71 Topps and those are the only cards I try to spread out.
    Reason is, seems I hit either all 8/8.5/9 on a '71 sub or nearly all EOT.
    Even if they all come from same source. Different graders see those differently.
    Other years from 72-80 I've seen a lot more consistency grader to grader so I don't spread those out.
    If you got high $ cards, I'd spread em out.
  • jeffcbayjeffcbay Posts: 8,951 ✭✭✭✭
    If you sub them all together you could end up having results like this:

    1 1 15948354 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 2 15948355 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 3 15948356 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 4 15948357 VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT 4 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 5 15948358 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 6 15948359 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 7 15948360 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 8 15948361 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 9 15948362 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 10 15948363 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 11 15948364 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 12 15948365 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 OC 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 13 15948366 EXCELLENT 5 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 14 15948367 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 15 15948368 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 16 15948369 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    1 17 15948370 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 401 MARK McGWIRE 1984 USA BASEBALL TEAM Card US
    2 1 15948371 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 2 15948372 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 3 15948373 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 4 15948374 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 5 15948375 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 6 15948376 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 7 15948377 NEAR MINT+ 7.5 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 8 15948378 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 9 15948379 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 10 15948380 EXCELLENT-MINT+ 6.5 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 11 15948381 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 12 15948382 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 13 15948383 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 14 15948384 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 15 15948385 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 16 15948386 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    2 17 15948387 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 181 ROGER CLEMENS Card US
    3 1 15948388 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 2 15948389 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 3 15948390 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 4 15948391 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 5 15948392 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 6 15948393 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 7 15948394 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 8 15948395 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 9 15948396 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 10 15948397 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 11 15948398 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 12 15948399 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 13 15948400 NEAR MINT 7 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 14 15948401 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 OC 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 15 15948402 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US
    3 16 15948403 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 OC 1985 TOPPS 536 KIRBY PUCKETT Card US

    This one is my own sub (back in 2005):

    1 1 31078581 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 2 31078582 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 3 31078583 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 4 31078584 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 5 31078585 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 6 31078586 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 7 31078587 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 8 31078588 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 9 31078589 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 10 31078590 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 11 31078591 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 12 31078592 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 13 31078593 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 14 31078594 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 15 31078595 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 16 31078596 MINT 9 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 17 31078597 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
    1 18 31078598 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1987 TOPPS 320 BARRY BONDS Card US
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