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is now a good time to buy PCGS MS64 and MS 65 Saint Gaudens $20 old
coinspeak
Posts: 283
is now a good time to buy $20 PCGS MS64 and MS65 $20 Gold coinns as an investment?
Ships are safe in harbor but thats not what ships were built for.
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In an unstable market you might just want to wait ans see what happens, if they go down from today's price buy, if they go up, look for something else.
If I had the cash I would put my money in quality early bust material, especially quarters. This advice is worth exactly what you paid for it.
Why they jumped up $500 I have no idea b/c gold went down. Now gold is going back up they have gone down a bit.
<< <i>is now a good time to buy $20 PCGS MS64 and MS65 $20 Gold coinns as an investment? >>
The % premium over melt are at an all time high so I would say no.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>They have been highly promoted by a very well known dealer. >>
Saintguru?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>They have been highly promoted by a very well known dealer. >>
I believe it is the many gold dealers that advertise on the radio, TV and print that are driving the bus on the big premiums.
Those buying from the telemarketing firms are sometimes paying triple what reputable mainstream coin dealers charge for coins of similar quality and grade. Someone paying triple the normal price will have to see the overall market for those coins triple again to break even.
/edit typos
> I don't think anyone can answer that
Agreed. All you will find are educated guesses. None of us know with certainty what happens next. Your time frame for holding has a lot to do with it, as does who are you buying from.
Gold: Headed For A Bubble?
The Wall Street Journal perspective. WSJ types are always bent by Gold.
I really do not like them as a value play
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Long term, if gold continues on up, they're little more than bullion. And if gold falls, they're a guaranteed loser.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
While I'm not in the market for 64/65 saints at the moment I think CAC 65's offer a decent value. So what if they are 2X the price of gold. How much do you pay for a BU wheat cent or a BU Merc dime or a Gem 1939 wash qtr? Or compare prices to an UNC 1928 SLQ, wheat cent, Merc, Buff, etc. The premiums on a gem saint are one of the lowest around to melt if you look at it. What's not to like about a truly gem coin, 80 years old, going for 2X melt value? They don't make any more of these and the supply pales in comparison to modern bullion coins which are still being cranked out. CAC premiums had been as much as 15% and are now only around 5%. This is a bargain considering that 70-90% of all top tiered MS65 Saints out there won't meet CAC standards. They are fussy. I sent in a large group of them and received 5% CAC rate. And I only brought the ones I thought would have a good chance of making it. The only reason 65 Saint prices aren't a lot higher is because of the loosening in grading that occured over the past 5-10 yrs. and the number of dealers who were playing with them to get them upgraded.
The 64's are currently bringing around 85% of the price of the MS65 which is about the highest its ever been. 3 yrs ago the 64's only brought 60% of the price of a MS65. But a lot more sloppy 65's were made during those 3 years. An added value of the MS65 is that it gets you a bit further from the "bullion" coin concept of the HSD AML plan that cites any coin that receives 50% or more of its value from bullion, is considered bullion. That means that currently all Saints from MS64 and down fall under HSD's def. of bullion. The MS65 and MS66 saints (along with the MS 63 and higher $20 Libs) currently fall out of it. And one can expect down the road that having something more removed from being called "bullion" could be less likely to fall under onerous new tax/trading laws not to mention confiscation.
I think CAC 65's offer a good value even at $2000. In many cases there is no difference from a nice CAC 65 and a lot of the generic MS66's that fetch $3000. There is a huge difference between the quality of an average MS65 sight-unseen saint and a CAC one. The last time MS65 saints hit $1650-$1800, the CAC's were still fetching $2000. So in some respects one can say they have lost ground and are better values. If prices slip, the CAC Saints will hold up better and their premiums will increase. If you go back to 1989, real gem Saints were worth $4000. Some of the CAC coins being made today are equivalent in quality while many or most of the generic 65's would be 63/64 by 1989 standards. Real gem saints aren't all that common. While ones in 65 holders are.
CAC MS65 saints might be noticeably cheaper this summer, hard to say. When gold peaked in Feb at $1007, CAC MS65's were wholesaling around $2250-$2300. Today they are at $2000 or so.
roadrunner
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
If/when the premiums shrink again I will get back into the generics.......With gold demand so high there is a possibility that the premiums will not shrink at all......
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
-joe
<< <i>didnt read what jpkinla wrote. it seems like we agree though! >>
I read "If/when"... and I knew we MAY be on the same page.
Since the man is asking about one of the most revered gold coins in the entire world , I'd say they suck as an investment right now. Stay away. Go for the generics AU50 ish as an investment.
Leave the good stuff to us little guys who enjoy collecting
MS65 Saints are probably the most overgraded "generic" coin out there. Go to any show and more than likely only 1 out of 10 pieces will be actually nice. Cut your "thousands" of coins into hundreds when you start considering quality. You can't go out there and find piles of CAC quality gem Saints. Paying $1900-$2000 for average low end 65's in holders is a terrible buy and most of these are 64's or even 63's. Finding a nice 65.5 coin at $2000 is actually a value compared to many other series. The same in generally true of MS65 $20 Libs as well. The majority of what's in 65 holders isn't of full gem quality. The only exception to that rule is probably the 1857-s ship wreck coins. But it does get better as the coins get smaller.
Here's a good example of what happened from 1998 to 2007 in comparing PCGS POP reports from those years. I did not include the no motto dates since the Wells Fargo hoard slightly skews the data since all graded 65 or higher. But since there are only about 2200 in MS65 it is still a small fraction of the total 65's around today.
Total MS65 with motto saints in 63, 64, 65 (all dates 1909-1932)
Oct 1998:....119,255.......61,931....15,953...... (all grades: 336,429)
Jul 2007:....163,405......142,737....67,623......(all grades: 541,797)
Clearly, the MS65 ratio to MS64's has gone from 4-1 to approx 2-1. And meanwhile the lower end saints in 61-62 grades are pretty steady in their ratio's. While the total # of these Saints seen at the grading services has increased by 61%, the number of 65's has increased by a whopping 320%. The 63% has only increased 37%. All the more reason why a nice CAC 65 coin is a better value than one would think. Toss out resubmits, etc. and the numbers shrink.
roadrunner