Legend Market Report is up
Bayard1908
Posts: 4,176 ✭✭✭✭
Bayard1908
Posts: 4,176 ✭✭✭✭
Bayard1908
Posts: 4,176 ✭✭✭✭
Comments
I am somewhat surprised.
Isn't this supposed to be the Year Of The Lincoln? Isn't there a Well Managed Promotion going on?
I do understand that Legend's business and the Lincoln 1 cent are about as diametrically opposite as you can get, but I thought that there was actually interest in the lincolns.
<< <i>Right at the end of the article, under "What's not hot", are a few items. One of those items is "Lincoln 1c".
I am somewhat surprised.
Isn't this supposed to be the Year Of The Lincoln? Isn't there a Well Managed Promotion going on? >>
I thought the same thing!
Guess thats where they are coming from with that comment since I dont think they are Known as a lincoln cent specialist. They bought some gems and now cant sell them for top $$$$$ so now according to them..the market for lincolns is down.
The market for Lincolns is down because Jack Lee is no longer paying whatever price necessary to buy for his set since he has passed on.
Was a little confused by her comments regarding the lack of nice fresh coins. Isn't China producing a good supply of fresh material???
<< <i>Nice reasoning.
The market for Lincolns is down because Jack Lee is no longer paying whatever price necessary to buy for his set since he has passed on. >>
maybe i am naive, but one collector can determine the fate of high end lincolns?
i thought this was a series that had support from many different collectors across the US.
talk about a thin market for some coins, eh folks?
So Jack Lee moved an entire segment of the coin market?
<< <i><<The market for Lincolns is down because Jack Lee is no longer paying whatever price necessary to buy for his set since he has passed on.>>
So Jack Lee moved an entire segment of the coin market? >>
Yes. Him and the potted palm in the back of the room.
<< <i>
<< <i>Nice reasoning.
The market for Lincolns is down because Jack Lee is no longer paying whatever price necessary to buy for his set since he has passed on. >>
maybe i am naive, but one collector can determine the fate of high end lincolns?
i thought this was a series that had support from many different collectors across the US.
talk about a thin market for some coins, eh folks? >>
Jack was bound and determined to complete his set in a very short time. He basically played 'statue of liberty' when buying his coins. He also was less discriminate than he had been in the past when forming his other great sets. People knew both of these things and took advantage of him [IMO].
So yes, one collector in a hurry with a very deep pocketbook can move a market.
Laura could have written this in any of her market reports. It is universally relevant. However, it is useful particularly now as market futurists need to be reminded that no divining rod from reading charts (or similar) replaces knowing how individual coins are faring based on each's own merits.
I am not so sure, myself, that those "inferior" coins are going to exit the market due to pricing pressures. I believe the exact opposite is more likely. Those quality (for the grade) coins are not going to tolerate being dragged down by their inferior cousins. They'll stay off of the market much longer. Yes, that is aligned with Laura. However, I don't believe the inferior coins will go away because they are unwelcomed. And if they do pull from the market, they'll be back in a heartbeat if the quality stuff reemrges and starts bringing the numbers up again. Laura articulated the problem fine. I just don't see the solution on the horizon in any direction. The TPGs aren't going to start buying up the inferior coins flooding the market, particularly a TPG that is on a public exchange and has to deal with responsibilities to investors, many who have but one quarter attention spans.
It's going to take athe bravery of a couple strong colelctions coming to market. IMHO the catalyst for the last market slump was the Eliasberg B&M sale(s). It doesn't have to be that big. The market does need fresh and exciting material. The economy can use coins as a refuge from other instruments but only if it can demonstrate strength and class.
edit>>> TDN - Yes, I noted that with Jack (RIP). I couldn't figure out what I was missing in his Lincoln bidding at one particular Platinum session. That lack of discrimination is a good example of the market tolerance for lack of quality that led to what Laura is bemoaning.
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<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Nice reasoning.
The market for Lincolns is down because Jack Lee is no longer paying whatever price necessary to buy for his set since he has passed on. >>
maybe i am naive, but one collector can determine the fate of high end lincolns?
i thought this was a series that had support from many different collectors across the US.
talk about a thin market for some coins, eh folks? >>
Jack was bound and determined to complete his set in a very short time. He basically played 'statue of liberty' when buying his coins. He also was less discriminate than he had been in the past when forming his other great sets. People knew both of these things and took advantage of him [IMO].
So yes, one collector in a hurry with a very deep pocketbook can move a market. >>
I agree one person can change things. There are a couple series where the high end buyers are rather ill or have passed and it will change how things are priced and sold.
Another good report though, and it seems as though, for the most part, spell check was working!
<< <i>
<< <i><<The market for Lincolns is down because Jack Lee is no longer paying whatever price necessary to buy for his set since he has passed on.>>
So Jack Lee moved an entire segment of the coin market? >>
Yes. Him and the potted palm in the back of the room.
Hey,,,I didn't think anyone noticed me in that palm!
R.I.P. Bear
<< <i>There are a couple series where the high end buyers are rather ill or have passed and it will change how things are priced and sold. >>
Yes, in some niches, just having one or two underbidders dropping out for a while can change the whole game remarkably.
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That will help.
<< <i>When the schlop starts going cheap enough, it becomes profitable to buy it, un fix it &/or downgrade it and return it to the market w/ a more reasonable label.
That will help. >>
I agree.
Good to hear about "the strong hands" holding theory as it bodes well for systematic rises in prices.
Miles
THE CSNS SHOW 2009
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OUR MARKET REPORT IS COMPRISED OF LEGENDS OBSERVATIONS AND EXPERIENCES AT THE SHOW. KEEP IN MIND, OTHER DEALERS WILL HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS AND EXPERIENCES.
We applaud The CSNS organization for putting on a fine show. They did everything possible to make it a "must attend" event.
THE SHOW
Legend did not meet our sales target, but we still managed to do very well. Wholesale was clearly stronger than retail at this show. We must point out, Cincinnati has never been a huge coin town. Sure there are a few collectors who live there (at least three of them we deal with or know of have world class collections and own at least one coin valued over $1 million dollars) but there is no serious group who can fill even 10% of the floor. Plus, the show was not easy for anyone to get to. There were only limited flights (we had to take a 6 AM flight) and they fly regional jets which limits what a dealer can bring. So attendance was not strong. Several major dealers also skipped the show because of sales tax issues.
We came to the show with some gold-and of course sold it all immediately. The usual "crackout" dealers were scrambling for first shot-but due to the new world order (the grading services were holding the line hard), they would only even consider a coin that had at least a 90% shot to upgrade (yeah they wanted "lock" upgrades-imagine that). They used to buy coins if they had even a 10% shot. Since the grading services got tighter, the middle layer of WHOLESALE dealers have dramatically cut down their buying.
Those dealers buying for Want Lists (like us) were extremely frustrated.
Unlike many other dealers, we expected this show to be weak. Historically, it is always a strong show, but we felt there were many factors in place to make it what we think will be the low point of the year.
DOES ANYONE NOT HAVE RETREADS FOR SALE???
Nice fresh coins are clearly still selling and are bringing super strong money. The biggest problem-actually our biggest problem, nice coins can NOT be replaced and we do not see any where enough of them to make money with.
All we saw on the floor were the same coins we have seen at the last few shows. We saw one small fresh group of quarter eagles sell WHOLESALE and that was it. We are very much "in the loop", so its not that the stuff was there and we didn't get offered any.
THIS WAS LEGENDS WORST BUYING SHOW EVER! We are talking about BOTH buying on the floor and from the auction. On the floor, we spent just $68,000.00 (at least years CSNS we spent $1 million). After the first walk around, we knew we were doomed. And for the auction, lets just say we only bought a small fraction of what we normally would for a sale of that size. Fortunately, we were able to buy some fresh deals back home before we even left for the show.
Bad coins are still lingering all over. These coins are now dragging down the good coins and the entire market. Until either these coins get bought back by the grading services or they get so cheap they have to leave the market this problem will exist. We said before the off quality coins are down by at least 60%. At this show, they clearly took another bump down (we'd guess they are now fully off by 65-75%). In most cases, dealers wouldn't even make offers.
The positive to all this is the good coins are in strong hands. So at some point, prices MUST go up (after the junk is gone).
THE HERITAGE SALE
The most famous highlight was the purchase by our good friend John Albanese of the famous 1804 $1 for $2,300,000.00 (Ex Amon Carter and Phil Flannagan-Legend). We know for a fact he did not have the coin sold when he purchased it. Of course this made heavy national news.
All along we considered this a retread sale. The majority of coins were purchased by the biggest consignor over the past 2-3 years. We still remember bidding on some of them. It was hard for us or many other dealers we know to get excited. Still overall, Heritage did an outstanding job of promoting and marketing the sale and helped the consignor face a only small loss.
Some people (dealers included) thought they were getting bargains because many of the coins sold for BELOW what the consignor had paid. That does NOT mean a coin is bargain. We bought the famous 1941S PCGS MS67 that sold for close to $90,000.00 in an auction about a year and half ago. We paid $27,600.00 for the coin. Does that mean its a steal? NO! It means the person who bought it paid way too much (remember, the past two years investors started to pour in and sent the market up like a rocket ship). What about the underbidders from that sale? Obviously they have moved on and can not be counted on to buy this coin. We can't see this coin being resold for even half of what it brought originally. To us, its worth what we paid and thats it.
The clearly fresh and great coins did exceptionally well. Here are two that stand out. BOTH inspired major bidding wars.
20C 1875CC NGC MS67 $80,500.00
$1 1934D PCGS MS67 $86,250.00
On the other hand, the 5C 1918/7 PCGS MS65 was apparently abandoned by a major phone bidder allowing it to sell for $230,000.00 vs the $350,000.00 the seller paid a year ago.
Overall, the auction had a huge sell through at very decent money-something that is critical for market watchers to note. You really have to be VERY careful in how you interpret the results from this sale. Unless you saw the quality of each coin, do not make assumptions.
OUR COMMENTS ABOUT GOLD
Sure, we see the big money players buying gold and we tell you about them. Then sure as can be, BAMM! Gold falls and generics take a moderate hit (about 10%). We still stand by our previous comments that the really sharp Wall Street players and general "smart money" people have and are still buying gold. We ourselves are still bullish on gold. You can only buy this commodity (in any form) knowing there will always be tremendous risk.
THE WEEKS AHEAD
We are fully convinced the CSNS Show was the weak point of the market. We cannot really see prices for inferior coins going down much more. They have hit the point dealers will not even make offers. We believe now these coins have to leave the market. We predict the public will wake up overnight and one day realize there are NO fresh, nice, and really eye appealing coins available. At that point, prices have to go up. Remember, the government printed trillions of dollars an also borrowed more than ever. At sometime, someone has to pay for all that. Watch gold, this price drop may just very well be a hiccup. Ditto for all hard assets and collectables.
The next major show is Long Beach at the end of the month. Due to the fact it has been a slowly dying show we do not expect much. In between, we do expect to see collectors thawing out from winter and starting to buy again at the new levels (it takes a while for the real skeptics to believe prices are back to where they should be).
The market in general is slower, but is NOT dead. Get us the right coins and we can sell $10,000,000.00 right now. That’s the ONLY thing hurting us today.
WHATS HOT?
Even though generics came down, gold was still the strongest point in the market. Bust coins. Proof Gold.
WHATS NOT?
ANY INFERIOR COINS. Lincoln 1C. All PR/MS 67/68 Type
<< <i>Isn't this supposed to be the Year Of The Lincoln? Isn't there a Well Managed Promotion going on? >>
Well, yeah, but then the economy tanked. And there's also the pump and dump (or "buy the rumor, sell the news") aspect...
Still, no surprises here. People who don't need the money don't want to sell the good stuff into this market.
<< <i>Jack was bound and determined to complete his set in a very short time. He basically played 'statue of liberty' when buying his coins. He also was less discriminate than he had been in the past when forming his other great sets. People knew both of these things and took advantage of him [IMO].
So yes, one collector in a hurry with a very deep pocketbook can move a market. >>
John Jay Pittman was the first collector to pull the Statue of Liberty routine standing at the front of the room in front of the auction podium and holding his paddle up at all bids.
Guess TDN is saying that these true collectors are unable to continue to move the market from the after life
<< <i>
<< <i>When the schlop starts going cheap enough, it becomes profitable to buy it, un fix it &/or downgrade it and return it to the market w/ a more reasonable label.
That will help. >>
I agree. >>
I guess in a way I have been doing this, I have had some NGC AU58 coins crossed to PCGS AU50 with little or no loss in value from the purchase price and are now correctly graded.
And I appreciate Laura's recent view of the market conditions, in the areas that her firm trades. She is accurately feeling the pulse, and showing us the inside dealer viewpoint, quite well.
<< <i>I guess in a way I have been doing this, I have had some NGC AU58 coins crossed to PCGS AU50 with little or no loss in value from the purchase price and are now correctly graded. >>
But that only takes care of non-PCGS loosely graded stuff. Because of market perceptions, crackouts tend to be toward PCGS, so the overgraded PCGS coins are in their final resting places in many cases unless they are purchased by a raw collector for crackout (at the appropriate price for the coin) or eaten by PCGS.
What coins are they refering to? and I thought Lincoln cents were doing quite well. I guess I was mistaken
I do not see how anyone thinks this is going to turn around fast. While i have never collected in a slow periord until now, there is nothing to show me that buyers are willing to part with cash on a large scale. I want the market to tank more so i can get in and ride it back to the top. I got on when it was already 50 percent there during this last round.
I can see how a few collectors can drive the prices sky high, that happens in most circles.
I do not buy into this buy side or sale side crap. I do not know one person that likes to lose money. The 1941 S that sold for 90k and now only brought 27k, i find it hard to believe only 2 bidders drove that up 60k a year ago. Same with the 18/17. I was not there so i am speculating ( a legend no-no) I am sure that some in the know saw this coming on a few coins.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i>Laura says Bust coins are hot. Then, why were there so many Bust Halves selling for far less than 6 months ago? The MS examples dropped the most. Thank goodness I cannot afford to buy MS Busties. >>
i read that as older gold coins with the appropriate liberty (bust).
"bust gold coins".
i could be wrong!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>OUR MARKET REPORT IS COMPRISED OF LEGENDS OBSERVATIONS AND EXPERIENCES AT THE SHOW. KEEP IN MIND, OTHER DEALERS WILL HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS AND EXPERIENCES. >>
Very wise and good statement to make.
I think this was a very informative report.
Thanks, Laura.
<< <i>The 1941 S that sold for 90k and now only brought 27k, i find it hard to believe only 2 bidders drove that up 60k a year ago.
<< <i>
That's all it takes is two heavy hitters who want it to drive it to that level.
john
<< <i>MS and Proof MS 67 type not hot???? >>
The point about CSNS being a "retread" sale that couldn't really get most dealers interested is an interesting comment. Does this mean that unless all buyers plan to put their auction newps away for 5-10 years or more, that they will not be perceived as worthy of interest by future bidders, esp. dealers? Is this now what really matters....how long a particular coin was put away for rather than how the coin's own merits are presented? Seems to me that a worthy coin should still be worthy 2-3 years later. So anyone who has bought coins in the past 2-3 years from auctions or public price lists and is considering selling them today, you just have uninteresting retreads for sale. Still, it's another thing entirely to see dealer retreads appearing in auction after auction until they finally sell or the dealer just gives up. Now what's not fresh is multiple appearances of dealer retreads at auction to the point where a coin's "image" is ruined for a minimum of 5-10 yrs.
The public did realize from 2004-2006 that fresh coins were rarely coming to market. I think the post-Eliasberg/Pittman sale type of "fresh" coins stopped coming by 2003. For example solid MS65 bust halves were rarely found on the market in top tier 65 holders back in 2004 and that was still the case in 2007-2008. This was true across some other series and multiple grades. I don't know if this meant that only fresh supplies of unmessed with coins/holders from the "old days" could satisfy fussy buyers, but it's probably a good starting point for answering this question. Possibly anything good never made it to auction or to a bourse showcase before it was sold.
roadrunner
<< <i>There's probably way too much overgraded material out there to conceivably "work it off." One could make an assumption that 20-40% of the coins in holders are either weak for the grade or just plain overgraded. Considering that well over a million coins have been graded by each service, we're talking hundreds of millions of dollars worth of coins to mop up. It's one thing to clean up the stuff floating in the immediate marketplace, but it's much different to go out and get it all. It will just keep on filtering in over many years. It's really no different than the toxic financial assets our bankers have helped to bury away. That stuff just won't go away overnight, there's just too much of it. It will take years, just like coins. You can try and forget about it and put it out of sight, but it will still be there and will eventually make its way to market. Even during the "good" coin market years of 2004-2006 Legend was saying that the junk was holding back the good stuff, either in the price guides, the actual market or both. And in many respects prices are still being held back only we aren't in Oz anymore (ie 2004-2007). The only logical way I could see in fixing the total problem short term would be to revamp the entire grading system and start over, possibly with new TPG's, less TPG's, etc. In essence, all coins would be raw again and would have to stand on their own merits. The old holders would still provide a basis of value much like what a revaluated currency goes through. But, the odds of changing our "currency" at this point with so much invested in it, is highly improbable.
The point about CSNS being a "retread" sale that couldn't really get most dealers interested is an interesting comment. Does this mean that unless all buyers plan to put their auction newps away for 5-10 years or more, that they will not be perceived as worthy of interest by future bidders, esp. dealers? Is this now what really matters....how long a particular coin was put away for rather than how the coin's own merits are presented? Seems to me that a worthy coin should still be worthy 2-3 years later. So anyone who has bought coins in the past 2-3 years from auctions or public price lists and is considering selling them today, you just have uninteresting retreads for sale. Still, it's another thing entirely to see dealer retreads appearing in auction after auction until they finally sell or the dealer just gives up. Now what's not fresh is multiple appearances of dealer retreads at auction to the point where a coin's "image" is ruined for a minimum of 5-10 yrs.
I guess another way to interpret the Legend Report is that unless Legend (or a few other select dealers) have (or have had) the coin in their inventory it is junk.
<< <i>maybe i am naive, but one collector can determine the fate of high end lincolns? >>
Many people collect Lincolns, but only a few are interested in having a top-ranked registry set. If one major "whale" has passed on and others are standing pat, the high-end market becomes thin real quick.
I'm a strong buyer in the low-to-mid MS ranges (well, maybe not so strong, but you get the idea). But I'm not in the market for condition rarities.
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
<< <i>[After lambasting all the "junk" one can only assume that in Laura's opinion Proof MS 67 type is all erroneously graded??? Elsewise wouldn't such coins be the cream of the crop? >>
Possibly these coins have "maxed out" on their pricing given the substantially lower prices to be paid for 65s and 66s. I may want a 67 but I might be just as happy with several 65s for the same cost.
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
If it's gold, it's hot. This is where the coin market money is flowing.
Before Central States: The upper 1% of the numismatic coin market was on solid ground.
After Central States: The upper 1/10 of 1% of the numismatic coin market was on solid ground.
With the stock market seemingly coming back, money is going to start flowing out of the numismatic coin market.
Long Beach ...
<< <i>My take:
If it's gold, it's hot. This is where the coin market money is flowing.
Before Central States: The upper 1% of the numismatic coin market was on solid ground.
After Central States: The upper 1/10 of 1% of the numismatic coin market was on solid ground.
With the stock market seemingly coming back, money is going to start flowing out of the numismatic coin market.
Long Beach ... >>
RE: Stock Market seemingly coming back. Of course we could be caught in the eye of the Hurricane, lull of the storm, or a major dead cat bounce. I understand at least one major brokerage house is anticipating at least one more low in the not too distant future.