So, PMs are falling! Time to buy, stand still - OR?

Boom · April 7, 2009 11:33PM

What do the big boys, the Pros and efficianado have to say about it?

How are you boys reading this? Opportunity to buy or???

Coll3ctor · April 8, 2009 2:57AM

Who the hell knows anymore

I say BUY BUY BUY !!!

1jester · April 8, 2009 5:32AM

<<

I say BUY BUY BUY !!! >>

X 2

OPA · April 8, 2009 11:07PM

Buy now? Never ... wait for the bounce of the oncoming bottom & then buy.

jmski52 · April 9, 2009 12:13AM

Nothing is as it appears these days.

PerryHall · April 9, 2009 12:21AM

<< Buy now? Never ... wait for the bounce of the oncoming bottom & then buy. >>

Agree. Better buying opportunities are yet to come.

Coll3ctor · April 9, 2009 12:33AM

<< 

<< Buy now? Never ... wait for the bounce of the oncoming bottom & then buy. >>

Agree. Better buying opportunities are yet to come. >>

Some were saying this months ago when silver was at $8.50 an ounce

roadrunner · April 9, 2009 2:37AM

I'd say it's a buying opportunity for gold/silver and selling opportunity for the general stock market. A correction in each has just occured or seems likely to occur. This sure beats buying gold or silver at the $950+/$13+ levels. This doesn't mean the metals can't move lower. In fact a number of the best gold analysts are sitting on the fence right now thinking that gold can tank from $680-$840 or can take back off. Very tenous to say the least.

I see many more positive signs right now than negative ones. And if most everyone is calling for additional downside, which is what I think hear and read, then upside is in the cards. For what it's worth the gold/silver ratio has decreased from 72.5 to 71.5 over the last 2 days which is a small sign of probable short term higher prices in the metals. A move to under 71 would be bullish.

roadrunner

coasterfan · April 9, 2009 11:23AM

Platinum hasn't been this high since last September. I wouldn't call that falling.

silvergoldnut · April 9, 2009 12:14PM

sell all your proof gold and your common ms63- 64 double eagles now, its never been this high !!!!

THEN buy more bullion coins with the extra cash !!!!

Example:

i sold a 2008w proof buffalo 50.00 for $2750.00 !!!!

then bought 2 buffalos at 1125.00 each.

by the way i paid 1299 for the pf70uc ngc last year.

i'm selling all my higher end stuff and buying more common stuff.
so for i have ended up with 6 FREE buffalos or 6 more oz's of gold !!!

when i'm done i hoping to double the amount of gold i have.

OneCent · April 9, 2009 2:26PM

<< I'd say it's a buying opportunity for gold/silver and selling opportunity for the general stock market. A correction in each has just occured or seems likely to occur. This sure beats buying gold or silver at the $950+/$13+ levels. This doesn't mean the metals can't move lower. In fact a number of the best gold analysts are sitting on the fence right now thinking that gold can tank from $680-$840 or can take back off. Very tenous to say the least.

I see many more positive signs right now than negative ones. And if most everyone is calling for additional downside, which is what I think hear and read, then upside is in the cards. For what it's worth the gold/silver ratio has decreased from 72.5 to 71.5 over the last 2 days which is a small sign of probable short term higher prices in the metals. A move to under 71 would be bullish.

roadrunner >>

Hey RR, throw your charts away and buy stocks. You'll be better off in the long run. Gold is, well, not very mainstream and just gold. Unless of course you are waiting for the apocalypse.

;

coynclecter · April 9, 2009 3:16PM

<< Hey RR, throw your charts away and buy stocks >>

Thats right give the Walls Street crowd another crack at what they didnt steal last time. they're repentent, they'll play fair from now on. No more short sales, manipulations, back dating sales or pump and dump. Trust them with your cash and don't worry cuz the SEC is looking out for you.

Coll3ctor · April 10, 2009 12:14AM

DIVERSIFY

roadrunner · April 10, 2009 12:30AM

It seems that timely cash infusions to the banks saved the SM from a nice correction this week. No wonder WFC was profitable this quarter after receiving billions in cash via various FED programs plus funneled cash from AIG.

The stock market has been rigged for years but it doesn't mean you can't profit from the swings. Anyone who has stayed invested in it (ie buy and hold) over the past 10 years has lost money to fiat and 2-3X to someone holding gold. It's an inconvenient truth that precious metals like gold and silver have been one of the best performers over the past 10 years, better than any generic class of growth stock. But, I have no problem buying reputable companies that make money in a product/asset the world will continue to need (precious and industrial metals, agri-products, energy, water, lumber, etc.). The difference in stocks today is that everyone has to be a trader (daily, weekly, monthly) not to lose. The casino is now that difficult. The 1929-1932 market had 7 sharp downswings before it finally bottomed in 1932. The first downswing was the largest with it's recovery leg also the largest. But that didn't prevent the market from continuing down 6 more times. One advantage we have today is that we're pumping trillions of liquidity into the system. But one great anchor we have that 1930 didn't was an totally insolvent banking system with $684 TRILLION in mostly worthless derivatives to unwind. Those 2 factors just might be a draw. And no long term correction ends in optimism as this one supposedly has on 3/9/09. There is always a bounce back followed by another strong down leg. Long term bottoms are always retested. No such thing has yet happened to the Dow level of 6600. We'll be back.

PM's are sort of walking a tightrope right now between wanting to stay in a $870-888 bank or maybe test $850 or lower. The bankers game of manipulating the paper and metal's markets is slowly being uncovered and disseminated piece by piece. They are having to take more aggressive and riskier action to keep things from totally unraveling. The insolvent bankers will make a pile of cash on this market bounce but it will still pale in comparison to the tens of TRILLIONS that JPM, Citi, BoA, and GS carry on their books. Marked to Myth accounting will now say that those banks had a great 1st quarter esp those who took over insolvent banks who dealt heavily in credit cards. Those guys like WFC are counting 90 day delinquent c/c accounts as assets! Yeah, and by my accounting estimates my house tripled in value 1st quarter.

roadrunner

OPA · April 12, 2009 8:41AM

My feeling is:

“If someone says he knows whether it’s a good or bad time to buy gold – run away, because if he knew that answer, he wouldn’t be working for a living, or posting on this forum or publicizing it.”

roadrunner · April 12, 2009 10:20AM

The only thing wrong with that reasoning is that you'll be ignoring a significant % of opinions that are correct, regardless of what market you are interested in: stocks, bonds, PM's, commodities, etc., etc. And this is especially true when information is presented to substantiate said opinions. Just saying, X is going to go up or down is meaningless with no analysis. Frankly, I've been more than impressed with the accuracy of any number of posters here who have a good knack of calling the market moves in advance in all the above areas. And sure enough, they do post here even in spite of the above attitudes. Moreover, I follow a couple of posters on other sites whose market timing is exceptional and they typically get the vast majority of the commodity/PM market turns to within a day or a few days. They obviously do it for a living but are willing to share their knowledge for free on a public forum. What's the big deal about publicizing it when most people like yourself ignore it any ways?

Watch the gold/silver ratio ($gold:$silver) for gold's intermediate and short term direction. It has continued to fall since last week from a peak of almost 74 and as of Sunday night is down to 71.1. Continued lowering of this index usually supports short term rising gold and silver prices. However in the multi-week or monthly trends it is still showing momentum towards weakening metal prices. The Slow stoch and RSI momentum indicators also generally mirror this ratio with Slow Stoch being the closest.

roadrunner

lope208 · April 13, 2009 12:37AM

There's absolutely nothing wrong with increasing your stake in silver
heading into a bottom-- IF you think that silver will still go lower.
Personally, buying silver at this level doesn't bother me even if it does
go down some more. The reason? Because it's going to end up higher
than $12 or $13 in the future.

Why not consistently add to your holdings while it's still a great bargain?

OPA · April 16, 2009 5:13AM

<< I see many more positive signs right now than negative ones. >>

check your crystal ball please...it's been a downward movement since you made that statement.

coinsarefun · April 16, 2009 11:45AM

Picked up these today

Stefanie

storm888 · April 16, 2009 12:45PM

<< There's absolutely nothing wrong with increasing your stake in silver
heading into a bottom-- IF you think that silver will still go lower.
Personally, buying silver at this level doesn't bother me even if it does
go down some more. The reason? Because it's going to end up higher
than $12 or $13 in the future.

Why not consistently add to your holdings while it's still a great bargain? >>

//////////////////////////////////////////////

If you already have a comfortable amount of PMs, it is
prolly a safe idea to wait a bit to buy more.

....................
........................
............................

Apr 16, 2009 22:30 NY Time

Bid/Ask 874.30 - 875.30

Low/High 870.90 - 894.30

30daychg -40.60 -4.44%

1yearchg -71.20 -7.53%

Bear · April 16, 2009 4:57PM

I am gonna take my coins, my jelly donuts and

go hide in a cave until all of this financial nonsense

is over. I would say that the process will take till

sometime in 2010. As for manipulation of markets

earnings and financial institutions..........It is so bad

and pervasive, it is really difficult for one to believe

anything any more. I will just stand aside and wait

thing out.

OnlyGoldIsMoney · April 17, 2009 9:14AM

I am still buying but too many sellers on ebay think gold is still around $1,000 an ounce.

RedTiger · April 17, 2009 10:46AM

<< I am still buying but too many sellers on ebay think gold is still around $1,000 an ounce.

>>

I blame the cashback promotion for that.

I was looking at seasonal cycles in gold and concluded that unless some unexpected news hits, June/July will likely be at least as good a time to buy gold as today, probably a bit better. The caveat is that seasonality is among the least reliable of indicators. I still look at it though.

As always, for the average person, timing the markets is a losing proposition. The average person is far better off getting an average price, than trying to be too clever and timing every dip and blip. Especially so for those accumulating precious metals for the long term. Those trading for the short term, doesn't need any advice. If a short term trader does need advice, they are probably in way over their heads, and are likely going to be gone from the game soon enough.

/edit typos

roadrunner · April 18, 2009 12:22AM

check your crystal ball please...it's been a downward movement since you made that statement.

Hardly OPA. You need to read more closely.

My call on the short term movement of the gold/silver ratio (and hence gold) was dead on as gold went up for several trading sessions. The ratio started moving down over several days last week and early this week, hitting a bottom just under 70.0. Gold peaked in the 890's. I also said that the intermediate trend of gold:silver ratio was still showing an upward bias (ie further weakness to come). And sure enough, it has swung back incredibly fast into the 73 range to push gold down...mostly on the weakness in silver. The intermediate trend is still in place. The ratio has been forming a distinct rising triangle with a flat top since gold peaked on Feb 20th. The ratio has touched the top of the triangle (73.5-73.8) 4 times since. The latest touch on Friday. Since the ratio has been range bound on the top end I'd estimate that it will again fall within the week, pushing gold up a small amount. The trend potentially could last 8 more weeks (mid-June) until the triangle formation runs out of room.

Before gold's last fall back under $890 support, the signs for gold were more positive than negative. Obviously now that we have tested the precise bottom from April 4th ($863-$864) and dropped under the 100dma things look different. The 200 dma is still offering support at $860. For now I'd say the negatives overpower the positives. Also lots of negative sentiment exists out there in the newsletters, forums, etc. Per Ron Rosen's "delta turning points" gold was looking for an intermediate top in the April 22 - May 6th window. Now I have to begin to wonder if all that data calling for an intermediate top may in fact be the inverse situation, an intermediate bottom. Other Gann timers have been calling for a lower gold top as well in that time frame. It would be surprising if all of them got that wrong. For wave counters the worst case situation is that we just began a 5th wave down from the Feb 20th high.

There is lots of data out there but going in all different directions. The only reliable longer term trend imo is the gold/silver ratio which is staying on course, meaning continued weakness in PM prices. It's interesting though that the ratio cannot seem to break above 74.0. If that occurs, and with RSI and SS strengthening it seems more and more likely, we could see a much deeper pullback. But the drone of current negative sentiment is at odds with this.

roadrunner

OPA · April 18, 2009 12:30AM

>

RR So now you are guessing that the opposite may prevail?

roadrunner · April 18, 2009 1:20AM

Things can change OPA. I guess that's the price one pays for offering some original thought on a thread, while others can sit back and toss stones when things do change, while offering little to no insight themselves. I'm certainly less bullish than I was on April 9th. Banks came out with great reports on all the billions they are earning (lol). All this with home foreclosures and c/c defaults rising. It's all in how the banks massage their balance sheets.

To offer something new, I trended gold:silver back 3 years. The only thing that jumps out at me is that the current triangle formation that began on Feb 20th has within it a shorter term rising wedge formation that began in mid-March. We've been at these elevated gold:silver ratios for nearly a year....basically too long. And the past 3 years seems to indicate that a leveling off of the g:s ratio as we've seen over the past few months, typically moves in the direction away from the last top/bottom. Considering we had a huge blow-off top last summer, there is more long term trimming to be done on the ratio. I would predict that the current wandering and excessive volatility in the G:S ratio will resolve itself downwards by mid-June (ie increasing metal prices by June). I tend to think we should see something more in the line of the April 22- May 6 window that Rosen, Armstrong and others have been forecasting.

roadrunner

mhammerman · April 18, 2009 4:34AM

Well, nobody here needs much advice about investing or accumulating but it's always nice to step back a little and look at the bigger picture, particularly from individual perspectives. For those of us observers that would be classified as fundamentalists, I would offer that gold is behaving very rationally of late and operating with a very healthy range. The price goes up and down with little spikey runs every then just for accent but generally it operates within a pretty well defined range when it is behaving properly, as it is now.

Gold rested around 850 for a good while and that 850 seems to have given way to 890 or 900 and it is sensible for it to be this way; over all gold has been a very sound investment during this period of financial evolution. In looking at the DJIA a 200 point move either way, not so uncommon recently, is about a 2.5% swing after losing it's index value from 14K to 8K. Gold has been steady and rising throughout all of this sillyness. Gold seems to be moving 30 dollars or so against an 890 or so base and that gives a 3.3% swing, not much different than the DJIA unless you count a .8% difference in movement from day to day as something significant. Sure, this swing number could be more precise but after all, this is the broader view. As peole would say the DJIA needs to be at 10K there are hordes of believers in 1K gold...10K and 1K, seemingly believable, achievable numbers and at the same time an easy way to tell at a glance where things are. Generalizing...sure but that's what a broad view does even if the broad view can anticipate no further than the near future.

In the broader sense, opinions are always appreciated. Gold will move day to day but will trend much like moving averages (duh), it is nowhere near as volitile as the heads would have you think. Now, if you want to play peaks and valleys to accumulate or sell then you're playing on a daily basis and as mentioned in the previous post, you don't need any advice, you're the shooter. If you are playing nest egg then this is just as good a time to buy or sell as any other. It's like a great pool of water, when you're thirsty then drink, when it rains then there will be water for the future.

The gold market seems to be behaving very rationally. The thing to consider here is that we are talking paper when we talk about the DJIA or the NY spot. That $890 is for paper, there is still a premium to buy physical and that actual number is different than the paper number by maybe that same ol 3% or so we see in movement. It's almost like that 3% swing on gold spot every week is about the same as the premium on buying physical (spot+30)...in the broader view, so maybe that's an easy way to tell where things are? When physical premium deviates radically from paper spot then something is up, ears to the ground...but we already know that. If that 3% turns into 8% then we know which way the wind blows and the physical holders are gonna howl. If it goes to 1% then maybe it's a good time to look at something else for the portfolio.

It is never good to chase gold, like folk seem to do when it spikes up and people rush for it at $1000 because they have to be part of the play just to ditch it at $890 and take the loss, having enjoyed their stupidity with comments like, "I'll never chase gold again.". It is good to accumulate physical gold and just have a bit of a stash. So gold spikes and you sell 20% of it back into the market..."good for you" as Bongo Bongo would say. But when it settles back down, and it always does, then maybe grab a little more. It seems to this fundamentalist that gold is still good and cash is still king...nothing's changed; better question might be "What will change" and the follow-up question, for the money: "When will it change?".

JMHO

roadrunner · April 19, 2009 5:13AM

The problem with buying anything on the way down is buying it way too soon. Then again, who really knows when that falling knife stops falling.

Gold and silver are resting on a dangerous precipice right now. While gold has not given up the bullish card yet, it has just touched the same bottom from early April at precisely the 200 day moving average plus nearly all the momentum and strength indicators are generally pointing down. The dollar has just touched the 86.0 resistance level again and could break out to challenge the .88-.90 point once again. The last few weeks of the dollar follow the same rising triangle formation that the gold:silver ratio is following. In the intermediate term this says they both go higher which means lower PM prices. Unless the dollar and g:s ratio stall right here, PM's go lower.

Early next week should resolve which way metals go. I'd say it's a generally even bet with a negative bias since that's the way the chart indicators are pointing.

roadrunner

roadrunner · April 20, 2009 3:52AM

Based on Monday am, the stock market (ie the bank stocks) are showing the way for gold, at least for a short while. I've seen some posts at other blogs/forums that indicated bank stress test results have been leaked. Then again the govt is leaking "good" results so no surprise other people are leaking "bad" results. Whether it's true information or not it seems to have tanked the banks for the time being. I guess it's no different in the end than bashing gold miners in Barron's. One thread I read indicated 16 out of 19 banks in the stress test are insolvent right now (well, no surprise there, I thought it would be all 19). And none of those 16 banks could withstand any type of cash flow upset.

With gold's 3 legged jump from 870 into the 888 resistance point the next question is will it continue up. Gold, USD, and Long Bonds are all playing the safe haven role right now as banks lead the stock market into a pull back. The USD has broken short term resistance at 86.1 and looks ripe to be able to continue all the way up to .88-.90. The gold:silver ratio came down some but is now right back in the 73's, but with gold now at $886. That would tend to indicate it will oscillate lower over the next few days and bring gold and silver up with it.

Yesterday marked the Armstrong economic confidence turn date (ie 8.6 yr peak to peak confidence cycles). This leg heads down until June 2011. For a comparison, this would be similar to the down leg seen from July 2000 to Sept. 2002.

roadrunner

So, PMs are falling! Time to buy, stand still - OR?

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