Options
IM THINKING ABOUT AN INVESTMENT PROJECT
MBMiller25
Posts: 6,056 ✭✭
I am thinking about embarking on a little research project and wanted to involve the CU Boards. I wanted to take $1750-$1800 that I typically put in a investment account for my kids education each month and see if I could get a better rate of return investing it in the sports collectibles market over the next 12-24 months than I have with their investment account. Some of the ground rules on this project are these.
1. I will not purchase cards that will fill holes in either my Musial Basic Set or my Post War HOF'ers set as it might become hard to part with those cards in 12-24 months.
2. I am going to use Boeing as the baseline for the investment as it a stock I currently like at $30.10 a share. So I will use 60 shares of Boeing and its performance as the barometer I use to judge success or failure over the next 12-24 months.
Before I commit to doing this, I would love to hear some thoughts of fellow board members as to whether or not this is something worthwhile, and some ideas on what cards/collectibles you think I should invest this money in. This will be tricky, as I will need to look at purchasing and selling what I acquire rather quickly, so it will be important to purchase cards that will see a rather quick spike in demand, I.E. Jordan RC prior to his HOF induction, etc.
1. I will not purchase cards that will fill holes in either my Musial Basic Set or my Post War HOF'ers set as it might become hard to part with those cards in 12-24 months.
2. I am going to use Boeing as the baseline for the investment as it a stock I currently like at $30.10 a share. So I will use 60 shares of Boeing and its performance as the barometer I use to judge success or failure over the next 12-24 months.
Before I commit to doing this, I would love to hear some thoughts of fellow board members as to whether or not this is something worthwhile, and some ideas on what cards/collectibles you think I should invest this money in. This will be tricky, as I will need to look at purchasing and selling what I acquire rather quickly, so it will be important to purchase cards that will see a rather quick spike in demand, I.E. Jordan RC prior to his HOF induction, etc.
0
Comments
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
is guaranteed to cost my associates their jobs after
I have lost my investment capital.
Luckily for me - and them - my associates have handcuffs
and hammers that they use to restrain and disable me
until my hairbrain ideas pass away.
If necessary, and on your request, I will send one of my
associates over to your house with the cuffs and hammers.
............
BA is an awful "barometer," at this time. It is near a 52-week
low and could easily disadvantage your basket of cards.
Like-kind comparisons need equal relationships at the start
of the "experiment," in order to yield reliable info.
.....................
I have made a "nice" living picking between about 1000
different companies.
Suppose I had 1,000,000+ "possibilities" to chose from. Could
I EVER pick a winner? DOUBTFUL!
Picking wins in the collectibles market is an errand in search
of luck. There are just too many variables; MOST of which are
UNKOWN at the front end.
An "investment" that relies so heavily on lucky picks is NOT
an investment.
...........
The economy is in the toilet and it IS going to get MUCH worse
before it gets better.
The time to buy collectibles for future appreciation is when prices
tank radically-below historic levels. We are not there yet.
.............
Reliance on VCP or other "historic price" refs is NOT safe. It ONLY
takes TWO bidders to force an item to a high price-point. It also
ONLY takes the same TWO to prop-up the price of a worthless piece
of cardboard.
What happens to that price when ONE of the TWO bidders vanishes?
Gravity happens, and your "investment" turns to caca.
ANYTHING that is thinly traded is in SERIOUS jeopardy at this time.
...........
BA may fall much lower. Or, it may bounce and keep going. I dunno.
But, history has shown me that there is a MUCH greater chance to
do well in the stock-market than there is in the buy/hold collectibles
market.
In 2007, AA had a near $50 buyout offer that they declined. Last
week, AA dipped below $5. Maybe it is headed to $2. I dunno.
If you can find collectibles that have been beaten down like that,
it may be safe to buy them as longterm "investments." Otherwise,
not safe.
............
If you insist on having the entertainment value of your "experiment,"
buy some 50s and 60s Mantle cards in PSA slabs and pray/hope for
the best.
You might get most of your money back, in time to send the kids to
college.
......
You've got as much chance at 5-10% per annum on your short horizon with a couple of high grade cards as with any single stock issue, and with vintage HOFers your downside risk is probably safer.
I'd say buy 2 or 3 PSA 9 HOFers per month and see where it goes. You are obviously diversified in the stock market -- you won't miss much even if it jumps.
Bosox1976
I also just bought a bit of stock in Whiskey distiller, people like to drink when times are tough. And some distilleries are rock solid as far as contracts and financial independence. And right now their stock is dirt cheap, as is all stocks. Almost everything is a gamble these days.
Traditionally, Boeing has had the highest wages in Wichita and they always cry the loudest they don't make enough. I don't feel sorry for them.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
Have you considered just putting it in savings for the time being? Right now in such turbulent times, liquidity seems important.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Gambling on the next Hot Rookie = day trading
But both business plans are incredibly volatile right now!
<< <i>Bad idea in my opinion. Might it work? Of course. Might it not work? More likely. The only reason the card "investment" would produce better is you put in TIME along with the "investment" dollars. Cards are fun and financial instruments are "investments." >>
I think you make a very valid point that it is the "time value" of a long-term investment that makes it a true "investment." The short term 12-24 months doesn't exactly make this apples to apples.
That said, over the next 1-2 years I think you have a better chance making a profit buying and selling cards than you will in the stock market, unless you're fully/actively participating (not just taking a long position but shorting, etc.). And in my opinion, cards are a hell of a lot more fun.
KO, Coca Cola,
JNJ, Johnson & Johnson (pharmaceutical, health and beauty products)
ORCL, Oracle, software
Nke, NIKE shoes, apparel
XOM, exxon mobil
IBM, International Business Machines. IT, support technology
AMGN, Amgen, bio-tech, cancer research
AAPL, Apple, computers, tech, Ipods, Iphones, Laptops.
<< <i>honestly i think that while the market may continue to stumble there are very very good companies, name brands with good balance sheets that will far outperform any investment you make in sportscards.
KO, Coca Cola,
JNJ, Johnson & Johnson (pharmaceutical, health and beauty products)
ORCL, Oracle, software
Nke, NIKE shoes, apparel
XOM, exxon mobil
IBM, International Business Machines. IT, support technology
AMGN, Amgen, bio-tech, cancer research
AAPL, Apple, computers, tech, Ipods, Iphones, Laptops. >>
There is no slowdown for IBM. They're an amazing money making company. I don't have any, but will if it drops a little more in price. My favorite stocks I own are
ADM- grain processor
Verizon- great dividend yield
MMM- conglomerate, price came down to an attractive buy level. good dividend
Kroger- grocer
Nucor- steel, favorite also of Jim Cramer. good dividend
I see both going lower after next bear rally. That rally is close.
I like MMM at $30 or less.
I like ADM inside of MOO, but not stand alone.
I like NUE and X, but think they may both go lower after the next run.
XLB has a little NUE in it.
I like AA and X, but think they can go a good bit lower.
.........
The sector ETFs are safer and have the same potential to double
from here that the free-standing cos do.
<< <i>I like MMM at $30 or less. >>
I have been keeping my eye on MMM as well. I like their performance. I own some Apple in the investment account for my kids that I bought years ago, so I am in Apple at a great price, I am not looking to add Apple at its current price. As for IBM, Its throughout so many mutual funds I own, that I dont want to double up on it, by purchasing additional shares.
I am going to continue to research some stock plays on this project, as well as research the card side of this project. Right now, the best option I see in the card market for a quick flip would be to purchase 2-PSA 9 Jordan RC for about $925-$950 (VCP AVG) and look to flip them right at the time of his HOF inductions. Not sure if this is a play I want to make or not. Right now, I am leaning back towards sticking the money in some Blue Chip stocks with companies that show strong P/E and strong dividends.
My fear is that I will not be able to find enough on the card market to readily flip frequently enough to make this worthwhile.
IMO, I would put classified ads in several major newspapers around the country. "looking to buy baseball and other sportscard collections",
If you can accumulate a bunch of collections, "dirt cheap", you should do well, otherwise, pass and,
continue to invest in you roth. 401K, education plan, etc.,
....and reap the rewards of huge possible upside gains over the next decade, for your newly invested dollars!
rd
my 2 cents! (but if you only have a 12-24 time horizon, that sucks!)
Quicksilver Messenger Service - Smokestack Lightning (Live) 1968
Quicksilver Messenger Service - The Hat (Live) 1971
<< <i>IMO, I would put classified ads in several major newspapers around the country. "looking to buy baseball and other sportscard collections",
If you can accumulate a bunch of collections, "dirt cheap", you should do well, otherwise, pass and,
continue to invest in you roth. 401K, education plan, etc.,
....and reap the rewards of huge possible upside gains over the next decade, for your newly invested dollars!
rd
my 2 cents! (but if you only have a 12-24 time horizon, that sucks!) >>
very unlikely..after the crash of 1927, it took 36 years for stocks to make it back, an entire generation.....we may be looking at the same thing....
there are no NEW investors waiting to plunk sown money into the market...there is not a lot of money "on the sidelines" it has been lost....
there is nothing that will bring back stocks anytime soon....we may never see dow 12000 in our lifetime....
when they were valuing an interent start up company more than GE, you knew we were in for a catastrophe....
put your money in fixed bonds (city municipal zero coupon bonds is a good start)
a loss on an investment usually takes 10 years to gain it back.....now it may be more like 40 years to gain it back....
havent seen 1914 CJ's or E90-1 american caramels slow down yet...
Then like now it was more of a global crisis as England came off the gold standard.
It basically took a World War to get the economy back.
This time I think it may be different as the economies of the world are basically tied together and
with trading being done 24 hrs a day things can change rapidly.
I do agree with those that say for the OP to continue putting money in his (529)?
Steve