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Why should the price of exceptional coins drop?
Pushkin
Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭
Exceptional coins are coins that have outstanding eye appeal, are often PQ for the grade, usually scarce to very rare, and difficult to locate - IMO. They may also be an especially interesting variety like a 1873 DDO IHC in AU or above with lots of eye appeal. They may simply be a coin that you love.
Are collectors suddenly going to rush to sell because millions of overpriced moderns are suddenly falling in price, or because 1909-S VDB 1 ¢s in Fine - AU aren't commanding moon money? Real collectors collect coins; speculators, investors, wannabe dealers, and bullion players get in and out of the market, often with little knowledge, following whatever fad happens to be in favor.
Collector coins don't have to be expensive, they don't have to be rare, but they must be appreciated for what they are and not for what the price sheets or the plastic says they are.
Collectors never stop learning about, never stop appreciating, and never stop loving coins. They may have to sell because of unforeseen economic emergencies or the desire to upgrade, or to switch to a new series, but I doubt if they sell, or even care that the price guides are going south.
I will happily pay strong money for great coins. I don't care what some red ink on paper in the PCGS price guide or numbers in the Grey Sheet say - I am concerned about that peanut butter sandwich I ate today.
Buy from outstanding dealers like Andy Skrabalak or Mark Feld.
Acquire the "eye" - even some of the top dealers don't have it - really, they don't. Learn as much about your coins as you can learn, and I doubt if bubbles and markets will bother you much (they may bother your heirs
)
If you are trading coins like tulip bulbs than perhaps you deserve to learn some lessons?
Collectors love coins, they love learning about them, and they love the hobby - fiscal appreciation is an extra - don't count on it and you will spend a lot less time whining about coin markets and a lot more time enjoying numismatics.
Just my opinion.
Are collectors suddenly going to rush to sell because millions of overpriced moderns are suddenly falling in price, or because 1909-S VDB 1 ¢s in Fine - AU aren't commanding moon money? Real collectors collect coins; speculators, investors, wannabe dealers, and bullion players get in and out of the market, often with little knowledge, following whatever fad happens to be in favor.
Collector coins don't have to be expensive, they don't have to be rare, but they must be appreciated for what they are and not for what the price sheets or the plastic says they are.
Collectors never stop learning about, never stop appreciating, and never stop loving coins. They may have to sell because of unforeseen economic emergencies or the desire to upgrade, or to switch to a new series, but I doubt if they sell, or even care that the price guides are going south.
I will happily pay strong money for great coins. I don't care what some red ink on paper in the PCGS price guide or numbers in the Grey Sheet say - I am concerned about that peanut butter sandwich I ate today.
Buy from outstanding dealers like Andy Skrabalak or Mark Feld.
Acquire the "eye" - even some of the top dealers don't have it - really, they don't. Learn as much about your coins as you can learn, and I doubt if bubbles and markets will bother you much (they may bother your heirs
)If you are trading coins like tulip bulbs than perhaps you deserve to learn some lessons?
Collectors love coins, they love learning about them, and they love the hobby - fiscal appreciation is an extra - don't count on it and you will spend a lot less time whining about coin markets and a lot more time enjoying numismatics.
Just my opinion.
0
Comments
The reason is the same....demand. If people have discretionary income at a higher level, and multiple people want the same thing, then the price goes up.
Right now, there are those that still have that money, but there are plenty that are watching what they spend on. Overall, even if demand on really high priced coins decrease, there are still a couple of folks that have the money to push each other and the supply is very limited.
For coins that have more of a supply, odds are prices will decline a little bit.
Remember, it is all about the demand.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>Remember, it is all about the demand. >>
Only if you reduce the joy and art of collecting to economic dogma. I think there is more to numismatics than that.
<< <i>So I can afford them? >>
He didn't say "drop to face value"
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>Only if you reduce the joy and art of collecting to economic dogma. I think there is more to numismatics than that. >>
The most beautiful, breathtaking, rare, wonderful coin known to man is worth exactly $0 if no one wants it. Demand is key no matter what the issue.
<< <i>The most beautiful, breathtaking, rare, wonderful coin known to man is worth exactly $0 if no one wants it. Demand is key no matter what the issue. >>
The very statement is contradictory. How can something that is described in terms of basic human desires not be desired?
Once again, economic dogma seems to be predicating responses. If the price of Maine Coon cats doubles, do anyone think I'm going to feel fundamentally different about my cat? The same is true if the price of Maine Coons falls by 50%.
Reducing numismatics to economic dogma is the cause much of the grief being posted on the boards these days, IMO.
Maybe most folks' coins aren't as exceptional as your cat.
<< <i>Not just moderns are dropping... most US series are dropping >>
Does this mean the graders are seeing a lot more ring dings?
<< <i>Collectors love coins, they love learning about them, and they love the hobby - fiscal appreciation is an extra - don't count on it and you will spend a lot less time whining about coin markets and a lot more time enjoying numismatics. >>
Either thru concern or a reduction in the amount
of that money available, resources are moved to
more critical areas. As demand falls, even for nice
coins, prices fall. The coin is still nice , rare and
desirable, but there is less competition for the coin.
We are no longer in a cyclic recession, we are headed
into a world wide depression. As such, conditions will
continue to get worse before any corrective action is
able to begin the recovery.
Many people can feel that nothing is amiss as long as they
continue to hold their job. However, as the depression
continues to spread, more and more portions of the economy
begin to deteriorate. In time, few people will be uneffected by
the economic implosion.
Camelot
<< <i>Exceptional coins are coins that have outstanding eye appeal, are often PQ for the grade, usually scarce to very rare, and difficult to locate - IMO. They may also be an especially interesting variety like a 1873 DDO IHC in AU or above with lots of eye appeal. They may simply be a coin that you love.
Are collectors suddenly going to rush to sell because millions of overpriced moderns are suddenly falling in price, or because 1909-S VDB 1 ¢s in Fine - AU aren't commanding moon money? Real collectors collect coins; speculators, investors, wannabe dealers, and bullion players get in and out of the market, often with little knowledge, following whatever fad happens to be in favor.
Collector coins don't have to be expensive, they don't have to be rare, but they must be appreciated for what they are and not for what the price sheets or the plastic says they are.
Collectors never stop learning about, never stop appreciating, and never stop loving coins. They may have to sell because of unforeseen economic emergencies or the desire to upgrade, or to switch to a new series, but I doubt if they sell, or even care that the price guides are going south.
I will happily pay strong money for great coins. I don't care what some red ink on paper in the PCGS price guide or numbers in the Grey Sheet say - I am concerned about that peanut butter sandwich I ate today.
Buy from outstanding dealers like Andy Skrabalak or Mark Feld.
Acquire the "eye" - even some of the top dealers don't have it - really, they don't. Learn as much about your coins as you can learn, and I doubt if bubbles and markets will bother you much (they may bother your heirs
If you are trading coins like tulip bulbs than perhaps you deserve to learn some lessons?
Collectors love coins, they love learning about them, and they love the hobby - fiscal appreciation is an extra - don't count on it and you will spend a lot less time whining about coin markets and a lot more time enjoying numismatics.
Just my opinion.
I basically agree I think, but you could have a little sympathy for
people who are losing money in this market. It's not only spec-
ulators and wheeler dealers getting burned but collectors who
have taken beatings in their other investments or have lost their
jobs.
Circulating moderns, by the way, are steady to sharply higher
at the current time. This may well not last but they've been pro-
nounced dead by modern bashers so many times that it will be
quite an anticlimax when a drop does finally come.
Please ignore my sigline for this particular post only.
I am really concerned about what type of air you put in those balloons. Dingleberrys not worried about but always wonder as a bear.
<< <i>
<< <i>The most beautiful, breathtaking, rare, wonderful coin known to man is worth exactly $0 if no one wants it. Demand is key no matter what the issue. >>
The very statement is contradictory. How can something that is described in terms of basic human desires not be desired?
Once again, economic dogma seems to be predicating responses. If the price of Maine Coon cats doubles, do anyone think I'm going to feel fundamentally different about my cat? The same is true if the price of Maine Coons falls by 50%.
Reducing numismatics to economic dogma is the cause much of the grief being posted on the boards these days, IMO. >>
I would say that most people value food and shelter more than they do coins.
<< <i>I basically agree I think, but you could have a little sympathy for
people who are losing money in this market.
This may well not last but they've been pro-
nounced dead by modern bashers so many times that it will be
quite an anticlimax when a drop does finally come >>
.
Personally, I have great sympathy for the people who are hurting terribly, and I fear their numbers are only going to increase. However, concerning coins, the majority of my sympathies are for the collectors who are hurting not because their coins may drop in value, but because they may be losing everything because of forces largely beyond their control - not those who are primarily speculators and investors who were chasing the fast profit. And by collectors, I don't distinguish between any coin types or period. I don't like moderns, but so what, if people love them then it's not for me to pass judgment on their preferences.
As for those here predicting the future, I say to you if you are so good at predicting the future why didn't you sell the many six and seven and eight figure coins you acquired from your predicting and go live on the coast of France, or Tahiti, or Somalia?
It's difficult to have much sympathy for the obsessively greedy and the stupidly arrogant - I think their time is over for a while.
Because they can.
Just as why they went up in the first place.
<< <i>
As for those here predicting the future, I say to you if you are so good at predicting the future why didn't you sell the many six and seven and eight figure coins you acquired from your predicting and go live on the coast of France, or Tahiti, or Somalia?
>>
I never claimed to be able to predict anything much better than mere chance might provide.
But I can tell you with great certainty that even when you're right you can still be entirely wrong.
Coins are a hobby and a hoot. Some people earn their income from them because they're also
an industry. It's impossible to invest in them only to speculate. I think it's possible to have fun
and to make money in both up and down markets and I wish everyone here the best.
<< <i>I only know a little about the rare coin market, but every guy that I know who was able to afford them last year is still able to afford them this year. If a rare coin that they are interested comes up they will buy it of course within reason as they have always acted, however maybe due to the economy their will be less competition and lowered expectations so that instead of paying moon money for some things as they might have had to do last year, this year it will be much more reasonable ie a good deal comparatively speaking. >>
How many people is that? Everyone that I know, and I mean everyone, that has an expensive hobby, has been hit hard by the stock market and real estate market declines. What kind of protective bubble do you live in where all your friends and acquaintances are shielded from the economic storm? Almost all wealthy Americans have mucho money in stocks and/or real estate. Do all your friends have all their money in CDs and bonds? It is true, that in my circle, most can still "afford" to spend on their hobbies, but most are cutting way back. Cutting back is a natural response when your net worth is down 20% or 30% or 40% from what it was last year, and your future income seems uncertain.
How many working folks can be sure they will have a job next year? 40% and even that group probably wonders and worries about major changes to their job or income? It used to be that at certain companies, or in certain jobs, the road was always up, or at least steady. Not anymore. Does anyone think that folks will stretch to buy luxury items when they are uncertain they will have a job? Sales of luxury goods the world over are down. Top end coins are luxury items and will follow the tide lower.
It is easier to be objective by de-personalizing the question. Think in terms of foreign countries and their coin collecting markets. A foreign country with a growing economy, a large middle class with disposable income, and a bright future is obviously going to have a better coin collecting market than a foreign country with a shrinking economy, a shrinking middle class, and an uncertain future. There was a time when the U. S. was the first case, and is now most would say it looks more like the second case. What the future holds no one knows.
Coins haven't gone down much in price--yet. However, it would not surprise me to see an absolute slaughter on the coins that have run up the most in price. Personally, I believe a good deal of the run up has been caused by a very small group of hoarders and a big increase in the number of full time dealers. If the overall coin collector base hasn't grown, as I suspect it has not, the price gains may be built on a foundation of sand. What goes up in price, often comes down twice as fast. Again, I'm not predicting a slaughter, but it would not surprise me. Lower prices beget lower prices. As people learn to wait, instead of buy now, prices naturally erode. Why would anyone buy today, if it will be 20% cheaper next year? It will take a while for the bull market conditioning to wear off, but once it does, it will take a similarly long while for the bull market mentality of buy now to return.
As for the original question, I don't get it. The explanation is simple, and common sense. Any justification for ever higher coin prices sounds suspiciously similar to a song-and-dance routine being put on by a coin dealer with inventory to move. Substitute coin dealer with real estate agent with a house to sell, or a stock broker with a commission to make, and the picture becomes clear. Stay objective, don't let your love of the hobby cloud the picture.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
absolutely true , exceptional coins do not go down in value ...... ever........: sometimes there are just no current buyers
Are collectors suddenly going to rush to sell because millions of overpriced moderns are suddenly falling in price, or because 1909-S VDB 1 ¢s in Fine - AU aren't commanding moon money?
I believe some moderns can be exceptional, and some are coins I love. The price coins command has little to do with what they're worth. Real modern collectors and world coin collectors have known that longer than the rest of the coin world. In a down market, I search raw mid-20th century coins for condition rarities I can buy near melt. I know them very well, and know what they are worth to me. I don't mind "investing" at that level in ANY market. Maybe you "exceptional" classic guys are smart enough to beat the bear, but posts like this one certainly indicate your concern. JMO
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>
<< <i>I only know a little about the rare coin market, but every guy that I know who was able to afford them last year is still able to afford them this year. If a rare coin that they are interested comes up they will buy it of course within reason as they have always acted, however maybe due to the economy their will be less competition and lowered expectations so that instead of paying moon money for some things as they might have had to do last year, this year it will be much more reasonable ie a good deal comparatively speaking. >>
How many people is that? Everyone that I know, and I mean everyone, that has an expensive hobby, has been hit hard by the stock market and real estate market declines. What kind of protective bubble do you live in where all your friends and acquaintances are shielded from the economic storm? Almost all wealthy Americans have mucho money in stocks and/or real estate. Do all your friends have all their money in CDs and bonds? It is true, that in my circle, most can still "afford" to spend on their hobbies, but most are cutting way back. Cutting back is a natural response when your net worth is down 20% or 30% or 40% from what it was last year, and your future income seems uncertain.
How many working folks can be sure they will have a job next year? 40% and even that group probably wonders and worries about major changes to their job or income? It used to be that at certain companies, or in certain jobs, the road was always up, or at least steady. Not anymore. Does anyone think that folks will stretch to buy luxury items when they are uncertain they will have a job? Sales of luxury goods the world over are down. Top end coins are luxury items and will follow the tide lower.
It is easier to be objective by de-personalizing the question. Think in terms of foreign countries and their coin collecting markets. A foreign country with a growing economy, a large middle class with disposable income, and a bright future is obviously going to have a better coin collecting market than a foreign country with a shrinking economy, a shrinking middle class, and an uncertain future. There was a time when the U. S. was the first case, and is now most would say it looks more like the second case. What the future holds no one knows.
Coins haven't gone down much in price--yet. However, it would not surprise me to see an absolute slaughter on the coins that have run up the most in price. Personally, I believe a good deal of the run up has been caused by a very small group of hoarders and a big increase in the number of full time dealers. If the overall coin collector base hasn't grown, as I suspect it has not, the price gains may be built on a foundation of sand. What goes up in price, often comes down twice as fast. Again, I'm not predicting a slaughter, but it would not surprise me. Lower prices beget lower prices. As people learn to wait, instead of buy now, prices naturally erode. Why would anyone buy today, if it will be 20% cheaper next year? It will take a while for the bull market conditioning to wear off, but once it does, it will take a similarly long while for the bull market mentality of buy now to return.
As for the original question, I don't get it. The explanation is simple, and common sense. Any justification for ever higher coin prices sounds suspiciously similar to a song-and-dance routine being put on by a coin dealer with inventory to move. Substitute coin dealer with real estate agent with a house to sell, or a stock broker with a commission to make, and the picture becomes clear. Stay objective, don't let your love of the hobby cloud the picture. >>