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The oncoming coin crunch, is near at hand
Bear
Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
More and more dealers seem to be shying away
from purchase of expensive coins over 5,000 except
in consignment. The sense of fear is just beginning to
run thru dealers like Cr*p thru a goose. With the renewed
weakness in the banking and financial institutions as well as
tighter limits on lines of creditand short term loans we may well
be seeing a wave of conservation of cash among dealers. Coins
under 1000 are still moving but the antsy feeling among collectors
and dealers is becoming palpable and is seeming to be increasing.
While I am sure some specialty dealers are still buying and selling the
big coins, there is the sense that the financial world is closing in all
businesses requiring a steady flow of money. 2009 is crunch time and
the pocket books and wallets are starting to slam shut. I remember a few
months ago when the CEOs of all the financial Institutions were telling stock
holders how everything was hunky dory and that they all had sufficient reserves
to weather any storm. Well they were lying thru their teeth then and they are
still lying. Assurances of financial strength, are all suspect. As a case in point, bail bond
companies are laying off staffs and going out of business.....why. People have no money
to pay the 10% of the Bond amount and If they have homes the equity is negative and so can
not be used for collateral on large bonds over $ 50,000.Like a pebble dropped in a pool of water,
the ripples are expanding and encompassing more and more of the pond.
from purchase of expensive coins over 5,000 except
in consignment. The sense of fear is just beginning to
run thru dealers like Cr*p thru a goose. With the renewed
weakness in the banking and financial institutions as well as
tighter limits on lines of creditand short term loans we may well
be seeing a wave of conservation of cash among dealers. Coins
under 1000 are still moving but the antsy feeling among collectors
and dealers is becoming palpable and is seeming to be increasing.
While I am sure some specialty dealers are still buying and selling the
big coins, there is the sense that the financial world is closing in all
businesses requiring a steady flow of money. 2009 is crunch time and
the pocket books and wallets are starting to slam shut. I remember a few
months ago when the CEOs of all the financial Institutions were telling stock
holders how everything was hunky dory and that they all had sufficient reserves
to weather any storm. Well they were lying thru their teeth then and they are
still lying. Assurances of financial strength, are all suspect. As a case in point, bail bond
companies are laying off staffs and going out of business.....why. People have no money
to pay the 10% of the Bond amount and If they have homes the equity is negative and so can
not be used for collateral on large bonds over $ 50,000.Like a pebble dropped in a pool of water,
the ripples are expanding and encompassing more and more of the pond.
There once was a place called
Camelot
Camelot
0
Comments
the bigger problem at this moment.
Camelot
<< <i>I have bigger problems than all that. I need to find Super Bowl tickets! >>
Just go to Tampa with a wad of C-notes in hand and you should do just fine.
I don't suppose you could trade Cabbage Patch dolls for Super Bowl tickets, which people were doing for Super Bowl XVIII.
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
<< <i>I have bigger problems than all that. I need to find Super Bowl tickets! >>
GOOD LUCK !!!
<< <i>More and more dealers seem to be shying away
from purchase of expensive coins over 5,000 except
in consignment. >>
So, have you tried selling to collectors then?
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Camelot
<< <i>Bayard.....try selling instead of buying. >>
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
<< <i>Bayard.....try selling instead of buying. >>
Duplicates from my collection still sell rather easily, even my proof Mercury dime widgets.
Widgets and coins under 5K are doing alright
but the Heavy stuff (in some cases) are going
for a fraction of what they should be going for.
Trim the fat and batten down the hatches, boys.
<< <i>I have bigger problems than all that. I need to find Super Bowl tickets! >>
I hope you didn't go last time the Steelers made it. That was a stinker of a game.
Anyone know what the over/under is? It will be a high scoring game. I am going to wager 10oz's of Gold Bullion with my private Bookie, on the over.
Boldin/Fizt are not like my Ravens receiver they will score and I know that Big Ben will throw up some floater to Heinz (Wish he was a top Receiver) Ward. Should be a great game to stay at home in this economic time.
As I can't stand the Steelers I have to root for them because I bleed the AFC and hope beating my Ravens 3 times in year we were only suppose to win 6 games I will cross me fangers.
Good Luck!
Hoard the keys.
<< <i>TextMore and more dealers seem to be shying away from purchase of expensive coins over 5,000 except in consignment. The sense of fear is just beginning to run thru dealers like Cr*p thru a goose. With the renewed weakness in the banking and financial institutions as well as tighter limits on lines of creditand short term loans we may well be seeing a wave of conservation of cash among dealers. Coins under 1000 are still moving but the antsy feeling among collectors and dealers is becoming palpable and is seeming to be increasing. >>
Is this your opinion based on your observation, or is this based on a survey or what? You seem to be stating this as fact. I am not necessarily disputing your finding but wonder about how you came up with these finding.
Camelot
of always losing his head over things.
I did not say that the world was coming to an
end. Just that a Coin crunch was coming. Some
of us will survive.
Camelot
How about coins under $5000 are they in the same boat?
Camelot
And the rest of us where warned that we should hoard our cash and we shouldn't make any major purchases for now.
both large and small. Thus from those
contacts come my observations. No I will
not a name them.Further , I follow the coin news,
the shows and the auctions. From all these sources
one get a feel for what is and what is to be.
Camelot
It does seem that dealers are begining to lower some prices. I just keep plugging along building my collection. Lower prices are OK with me, as I am not in the market to sell anytime soon.
As a buyer, I don't think we'll see prices move much lower if any.
Years in the stock market taught me that the "Pros" are generally months late calling a downturn and likely to still be "forecasting" it for months after the recovery is in full swing. They are much better at "forecasting" history.
--Jerry
my best months, on ebay and dealing with personal customers!
I tend to agree with you about the prognosticators.
The value of things depends on supply, not so much the supply available for purchase, but the supply of buyers. Certainly, the decline of the world's economy will reduce the supply of buyers, and coins that have been overpromoted stand to lose value. But if you own something nice that you don't have to sell, keep it. You can only lose if you sell something, and accept less money than you paid for it.
I've been around a long time, and remember a saying from years ago that has validity today: "Sell in haste, repent at leisure." Don't be a lemming, and jump off a cliff.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
All I can say right now is.....rough road ahead...
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
Take some coins to your local dealer and try and sell them for cash.
I don't know how you will do since I'm not presently interested in selling anything.
Choice collector coins may still be reasonably solid, but anything else, watch out.
I'd like to hear about recent attempts to sell (not buy) choice collector coins from local dealers.
more and more buyers and esp. a newer generation of coin collectors set their sights to ebay. Shows will be a dead issue in the coming years.
And jerry.. quite true about the market. On that note i just bought 2000 shares of citigroup
If it ain't about the money lord knows i've gone insane
<< <i>Do you want to know how the market is?
Take some coins to your local dealer and try and sell them for cash. >>
Even in the best of markets, this approach usually resulted in outcomes that dismayed the seller and inevitably lead to posts here in the chatroom about how evil dealers are. So I doubt that's a good test of anything.
Those dealers that need the cash will obviously at some point have to lower their prices. At this point I don't have a feel how much even that will affect their sales. I can only add that I wouldn't want to be sitting on a lot of inventory with flat demand.
Coins I could of sold a year ago at the show got no offers.
<< <i>a newer generation of coin collectors set their sights to ebay. Shows will be a dead issue in the coming years. >>
eBay has been run into the ground for years, and will itself be a dead issue. It's a cesspool, populated by shysters, and overloaded with junk and fakes. Good riddance to it, in advance.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
Over/Under 47
<< <i>
<< <i>Do you want to know how the market is?
Take some coins to your local dealer and try and sell them for cash. >>
Even in the best of markets, this approach usually resulted in outcomes that dismayed the seller and inevitably lead to posts here in the chatroom about how evil dealers are. So I doubt that's a good test of anything. >>
How right you are. Unfortunately, most collectors aren't able to attend shows in distant cities where the "big boys" who pay "top dollar" set up.
But nearly all collectors could easily place their coins into the hands of more local dealers traveling to the big shows who could then show them to the 'big boys." In fact I'm sure this happens quite often for shows such as FUN, summer ANA and Long Beach. And in the case where a collector might live in a more isolated area where coin dealers and coin shows are quite sparse, they could easily ship a package of coins to a dealer of their choice attending the show.
roadrunner
<< <i>How right you are. Unfortunately, most collectors aren't able to attend shows in distant cities where the "big boys" who pay "top dollar" set up
But nearly all collectors could easily place their coins into the hands of more local dealers traveling to the big shows who could then show them to the 'big boys." In fact I'm sure this happens quite often for shows such as FUN, summer ANA and Long Beach. And in the case where a collector might live in a more isolated area where coin dealers and coin shows are quite sparse, they could easily ship a package of coins to a dealer of their choice attending the show.
roadrunner >>
The national dealers are very accessible. They will often pay for you to ship coins to them for offers and are generally more professional and pay higher prices than the local dealers or shops. (At least I can say that about the ones I work with.)
If you think you are going to get top dollar for better numismatic material from the typcial local coin shop, you are kidding yourself--and that was true five years ago and remains so today.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
"Do you want to know how the market is?
Take some coins to your local dealer and try and sell them for cash."
At the fun show, I offered a very nice pcgs au58 bust half (common date) to two bust half dealers.
dealer 1 was not interested.
dealer 2 offered $400. Dealer 2 had the same date coin (pcgs au58) in his show case, asking $1050 for it.
Nice spread, I thought.
It's been true as well for the 35+ years I've been buying higher quality coins.
Bear and others as well have been telling all those here that would listen to start weeding out any lower quality or problem coins as far back as 2004 when it seemed quite apparent that our economic bubble would burst within a few years.
roadrunner
<< <i>More and more dealers seem to be shying away
from purchase of expensive coins over 5,000 except
in consignment. >>
And this has been going on for quite some time. And for less expensive coins as well. I myself have written about it. Many dealers that would have made strong buy prices, or buyback prices before have been pushing for consignment. Can't blame them really. BUT, many collectors are indeed doing this, which means they want their price, and
the dealer has to make a profit as well. So, at least the coins I'm interested in have not gone down in price whatsoever.
<< <i>All valid points with one exception. I have followed the advice, cleaned out the closet so to speak, and put myself in a much better cash position. However, while the auction prices have come down, the dealer prices have remained the same if not gone higher! Checking numerous web sites, I see no evidence of lower prices. I guess I'll have to save my money for the auctions.... >>
Assuming the OP is correct, dealers will need to get flexible with prices or be faced with stagnant inventory. I am looking forward to bargain hunting in auctions.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907/publishedset/15628
March of Time - 27 Centuries in Gold
https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/WCM/CoinCustomSetView.aspx?s=36590