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Another "What, me worry: thread!
Realone
Posts: 18,519 ✭✭✭✭✭
Ok so lets talk about this great predictor of sorts, the up and coming FUN Show, and how it will foretell the future of the rare coin numismatic market during these troubling and scary economic times.
First, remember I am only discussing the the rare coin market, nothing else, so don't even go there.
Second, again only rare classic coins capeesh!
Third, remember the 1st and second rules mentioned above because someone always starts bringing up bullion and moderns and I am not talking about those, ok I will go on
From the stand point of pure collectors, not flippers, not speculators, I am talking collectors, those that collect to own because they are acquiring a coin that they gotta have for their collection, they have been looking for it for some time, that want to have possession of it for ever, go it!
Well these collectors are generally astute at what they collect, they have seen prices move over a length of time, they know what they want, they are prudent and conservative with their hard earned money, the money that they have to use has been put aside for the intended and anticipated purchase, they don't want to lose an opportunity when it crosses their path, they realize that there is a limit to what they will spend but they sometime rationalize when they go over their limit in those few cases that they will hang onto that one a little longer. They read the paper, they know what is going on in the world and if they can take advantage of the tough economic times they will, if they have to
wait they also will do that, but they are aware, very aware of all the issues surrounding the acquisition of something that they want.
Therefore for the rare coin market, it ain't going to crash, it may slow down, it may soften, the demand may be reduced and prices may drop a bit depending on how bad the seller wants to sell but there is no way in heck there will be a crash akin to real estate, stocks and discount rate. There is no reason, the seller will either pull his coin from the auction or lower it a bit but there are too many collectors who are looking for too few rare coins, things will just adjust, slow down but not fall hard and long. Since there was am buying exuberance on the part of buyers as of recent and the sellers stepped in to meet that demand now there will be the reverse but I look at it as an evening out as a worse case and not a plummet as described 30 years ago, just no reason for it. It would help though if the sellers adjust their just recent over exuberance downward in anticipation of this situation and go with the flow and then there will be a real soft landing. For if the sellers think that thy can get MORE and or don't loosen up they could make it worse.
First, remember I am only discussing the the rare coin market, nothing else, so don't even go there.
Second, again only rare classic coins capeesh!
Third, remember the 1st and second rules mentioned above because someone always starts bringing up bullion and moderns and I am not talking about those, ok I will go on
From the stand point of pure collectors, not flippers, not speculators, I am talking collectors, those that collect to own because they are acquiring a coin that they gotta have for their collection, they have been looking for it for some time, that want to have possession of it for ever, go it!
Well these collectors are generally astute at what they collect, they have seen prices move over a length of time, they know what they want, they are prudent and conservative with their hard earned money, the money that they have to use has been put aside for the intended and anticipated purchase, they don't want to lose an opportunity when it crosses their path, they realize that there is a limit to what they will spend but they sometime rationalize when they go over their limit in those few cases that they will hang onto that one a little longer. They read the paper, they know what is going on in the world and if they can take advantage of the tough economic times they will, if they have to
wait they also will do that, but they are aware, very aware of all the issues surrounding the acquisition of something that they want.
Therefore for the rare coin market, it ain't going to crash, it may slow down, it may soften, the demand may be reduced and prices may drop a bit depending on how bad the seller wants to sell but there is no way in heck there will be a crash akin to real estate, stocks and discount rate. There is no reason, the seller will either pull his coin from the auction or lower it a bit but there are too many collectors who are looking for too few rare coins, things will just adjust, slow down but not fall hard and long. Since there was am buying exuberance on the part of buyers as of recent and the sellers stepped in to meet that demand now there will be the reverse but I look at it as an evening out as a worse case and not a plummet as described 30 years ago, just no reason for it. It would help though if the sellers adjust their just recent over exuberance downward in anticipation of this situation and go with the flow and then there will be a real soft landing. For if the sellers think that thy can get MORE and or don't loosen up they could make it worse.
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<< <i>Well these collectors are generally astute at what they collect, they have seen prices move over a length of time, they know what they want, they are prudent and conservative with their hard earned money, the money that they have to use has been put aside for the intended and anticipated purchase, they don't want to lose an opportunity when it crosses their path, they realize that there is a limit to what they will spend but they sometime rationalize when they go over their limit in those few cases that they will hang onto that one a little longer. They read the paper, they know what is going on in the world and if they can take advantage of the tough economic times they will, if they have to wait they also will do that, but they are aware, very aware of all the issues surrounding the acquisition of something that they want. >>
I don't believe there is any correlation between the qualities listed above and the fact that someone might be a long time collector. Many long time collectors have no clue about the hobby-industry other than they sometimes spend their money within the arena.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I pointed out in an earlier thread that most of the coins on my watch list in the Heritage sale are already receiving some fairly strong bids (not patterns), not so in the few I'm watching in the other auctions. What will happen on the bourse floor is anyone's guess at this point, but I doubt we are going to see anything remotely like a crash. Just as a side note, the "other" market did pretty well for the closing day of '08, now that all the tax selling is over we can move forward there in '09 too. Happy new year!
john
Might I suggest that you dip them, so no one will ever be able to remake the connection in the future?
Nice, desirable coins will still sell for too much money at FUN, and the schlock, well, who cares?
HNY!
I do know from speaking to several dealers at shows in the area that many regret buying higher priced inventory as it isn't moving at any reasonable price. I am not sure how this translates across a broader spectrum.
You don't have to go back 30 years but only 15 years to show that many areas of collector coins took 50-90% losses in the 1990-1999 down turn. If you happened to be a collector of decent or solidly graded gem coins, or choice or gem Morgans, Peace Dollars, Classic Commems for example, you experienced a bath of large proportions. This does not apply to those who may have collected the pop tops of the above coins. Those have always been somewhat stronger. Hey, but if you owned a gem 1867-s seated quarter (finest known) for example during this period, you saw a 40-50% drop in value if you thought of selling. And those were some of the best performers in the gem 19th century arena. If you collected say gem proof seated halves you lost 50-75% as a rule...same for choice or gem bust type. If you owned the finest known 1794 dollar (now graded SP66) you lost 66% of it's former high value. For collectors of moderns, key dates, nice circ material, early bust material, VAMs, key varieties, future REG set mania coins, tokens, colonials, G-VG indian cents and XF wheat cents, and other such items, you were somewhat insulated during the 1990's downturn.
Of course this is not to say that we're going to experience a mind-numbing downturn in 2009-2011. That jury is still out on what happens from here. I agree with Jhdfla that FUN 2009 will be stronger than most think, including most solid or better coins in the auctions, esp in the $2K to $25K range. There are still aren't that many nice coins out on the market. And from my purusal, the Heritage auction has a large number of nice type and dated coinage from 1793-1933...more than I've seen in the last few sales. Too bad this wasn't 2002-2004 when this stuff was more easily picked off.
roadrunner
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.