<< <i>I just read the Legend market report (Link), which was excellent, as usual.
The quote in the title is of someone else, not Laura. (Read the full report for context.) Could it be true and, if so, how could it be? >>
Just read it as well. The advice about selling NOW may be valid, but what does that do to your proceeds when everyone and his dog is selling the same kind of stuff?
I disagree with the following statement in the report:
The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal!
Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one...
I have no real issue with anything said in the write-up... EXCEPT for the CAC propaganda... hype... pure and simple... with the strong motivation of "self-interest"...
Re: Slabbed coins - There are some coins that LIVE within clear plastic and wear their labels with pride... while there are others that HIDE behind scratched plastic and are simply dragged along by a label. Then there are those coins that simply hang out, naked and free
"So if you see a coin you want and it’s in an inventory with NO CAC coins (because the dealer is not a CAC member), tell the dealer to get it CAC'd or you won't buy it. If they don't want too-which primarily happens with the Indian, Lincoln Cent , and Buffalo Nickel dealers, then that should be proof enough to go elsewhere."
I read it. Laura would do good to read DQB book on "Everything you wanted to know about coins", or some such title, don't remember exactly.
The other thing is 'Buy when others are selling, sell when others are buying". The thing with most humans, they are inpatient and always follow the herd. Everyone dumping will create a great buying opportunity for those that can think long term.
<< <i>Looks accurate to me, I am sure the "I do not see the sky falling" folks will chime in.
WS >>
What about the folks that are in for the L-O-N-G term. I don't care about downturns or crashes. I have what I like and will keep it through multiple cycles.
<< <i>"So if you see a coin you want and it’s in an inventory with NO CAC coins (because the dealer is not a CAC member), tell the dealer to get it CAC'd or you won't buy it. >>
In my opinion, Laura is leaving out an important element - silver and gold prices. If we see a bullish trend in PM's, it would bring new and return money into the coin market, causing prices to increase. The mint is also cutting back on their PM offerings, so that should help the generic gold.
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
Successful, problem free and pleasant transactions with: illini420, coinguy1, weather11am,wayneherndon,wondercoin,Topdollarpaid,Julian, bishdigg,seateddime, peicesofme,ajia,CoinRaritiesOnline,savoyspecial,Boom, TorinoCobra71, ModernCoinMart, WTCG, slinc, Patches, Gerard, pocketpiececommems, BigJohnD, RickMilauskas, mirabella, Smittys, LeeG, TomB, DeusExMachina, tydye
"..the coin market won't totally crash but it will be a while before the euphoria returns"
Sensibly stated that should mean that 1500 dollar coin you couldn't touch in '08 for less than 3k should settle back down to 1800-2K. We are going to pop a bubble but a pop 3 coin still isn't getting any more common. See you in 2015 for the next heathy cyclical run-up. Until then good luck but enjoy your collection....you worked hard for it.
We're all born MS70. I'm about a Fine 15 right now.
Sure it could be true. Is see lots of inventory from dealers that has been stagnant or not selling. I rarely see prices reduced on these. They might not follow the e-bay/auction markets where price trends seem to be set and right now coins are auctioning for much less than what we have gotten used to in the last couple of years.
I'm not sure I like that, but I'll bet my dealer will still wheel and deal and still get the better end of the deal when it's done. I think they know a thing or two.
<< <i>I disagree with the following statement in the report:
The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal!
Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one... >>
Wow, you could not be more dead on!! I always ask my Niece what she thinks of a coin (she is 12 going on 30) and I get a no holds barred opinion. She likes to look at my purchases and her words are usually "messy. ugly.too shiny, pretty and cool"
Like Ziggy, I don't agree with the statement about showing a coin to someone who knows nothing about coins. Most collectors can't grade or detect surface alterations. The general public will be even worse.
Also, if you have waited till now to sell your second rate coins, just who are you going to sell them to? Dealers aren't going to want them unless you are virtually giving them away. I hope you haven't been buying "market acceptable" coins because you are going to find that they are no longer "market acceptable."
Liquidity is going to be a very big problem.
It's going to be interesting to see how the various pricing guides react.
The CAC bit is pure hype and detracts from the article. Learn to grade and detect surface alteration. This is not the time to be a liberal grader.
I hope everyone follows Laura's advice and quits buying, leaves more for me. It probably does relate to the widget market, but for actual rare coins I'm not sure. I've got some bids in Heritages auction in NYC next month, if I get a bargain I'll be really happy, but I'm planning on paying through the nose for a couple of pieces that only come up once every 10-20 years. To be honest the only chance I have is if some of the rich players have really gotten beaten down in the market.
Seriously, it just reads like working up to an advertisiment for CAC. I really have no problem if someone wants a fourth party opinion on a coin, but for me it has absolutely no bearing on whether, or for how much, I pay or bid on a coin. And to walk away from a coin because a dealer won't submit to CAC is just stupid. I was going to try to come up with a better word, but stupid seems to fit.
At the Houston money show I sold a couple of duplicates that I have upgraded to dealers for much more than I expected, so the market wasn't that bad a couple of weeks ago.
<< <i>In my opinion, Laura is leaving out an important element - silver and gold prices. If we see a bullish trend in PM's, it would bring new and return money into the coin market, causing prices to increase. The mint is also cutting back on their PM offerings, so that should help the generic gold. >>
There are some very good points made in this thread, and this is one of them.
Could rising precious metals prices buoy an otherwise weak coin market?
Could a drop in PM prices exacerbate an already sagging coin market?
<< <i>I disagree with the following statement in the report:
The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal!
Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one... >>
Actually, I am going to do something I rarely do and disagree with Ziggy here. Assuming that the coin is all there quality wise, I think that the typical numismatic outsider is very good at telling attractive coins from those that are not. My wife is a good example. Sometimes, as collectors, I think we have trouble seeing the forest from the trees, and I have seen numerous examples of this on our very forum.
Could rising precious metals prices buoy an otherwise weak coin market?
What does gold bullion have to do with Indian cents or Buffalo nickels, or even rare dated gold coins?
Take a read over at the PM Forum. Why would someone putting their money in gold because they think the dollar will weaken or because they fear a collapse in our finanical institutions or hyperinflation alla Zimbabwe buy rare coins instead?
Edit to add: I note that this thread is void of comments from full-time dealers.
Great article and a lot of good points. Again, not to be negative, but if I were a dealer who did $50+ million in sales each year, I would hire a secretary that would run a spell-check on my articles. All of the errors take away from the content.
I found this statement to be intriguing:
"If they don't want too-which primarily happens with the Indian, Lincoln Cent , and Buffalo Nickel dealers (mentioned because there are one or two retalers who are nothing more than fronts for the guys who doctor those coins) , then that should be proof enough to go elsewhere."
It is fairly well known that the Indian and Lincoln cent area is a little "suspect" when it comes to the doctors. However, I never knew that the Buffalo nickel area was overrun by these fleas. Has anyone heard this before?
Always took candy from strangers Didn't wanna get me no trade Never want to be like papa Working for the boss every night and day --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>It is fairly well known that the Indian and Lincoln cent area is a little "suspect" when it comes to the doctors. However, I never knew that the Buffalo nickel area was overrun by these fleas. Has anyone heard this before? >>
The doctors are everywhere! That is why you MUST have all your coins CAC certified!! If they don't have a sticker a coin doctor might have touched them. Better yet, we'll take them non stickered coins off your hands for 60% off sheet!!! Then sell you CAC stickered coins at 40% over sheet! That way you'll know a coin doctor has never touched one of your coins! The sky is falling I tell you!!!
It is not exactly cheating, I prefer to consider it creative problem solving!!!
<< <i>I disagree with the following statement in the report:
The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal!
Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one... >>
Well assuming that you have weeded out the dregs, Laura makes a valid point. Why would you ask a novice's opinion of something that you know is a turd unless you are trying to teach them something?
<< <i>to walk away from a coin because a dealer won't submit to CAC is just stupid. >>
I don't believe that a coin that is worth the asking price is aware of the presence or absence of what's on the label, much less if there's a sticker over the label. Pure chicanery.
Good deals with: goldman86 mkman123 Wingsrule wondercoin segoja Tccuga OKCC LindeDad and others.
<< <i>The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal! >>
wow, alot of whizzed coins sure got some eye appeal!
<<<Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one...>>>
Well, I was not as impressed as most. Maybe the wording was a bit more flashy, but it is the same thing I have heard for 2 years: "Widgets are taking a beating, but good stuff is still selling at premiums". Nothing new there. I had to giggle with the statement "The market may have already crashed, but dealers don't know it yet". The only thing I could think of is was this: If the market has indeed crashed, then it is only uphill from here (last I checked, crash meant bottom). So why all the negative talk about the future, if we have already seen the crash? If you are a dealer, wanting to buy right now, why scare everyone? Go with a positive. Something along the lines of: If you took a bad hit in the stock market and have losses, this might be a good time to sell coins you hold that have a profit. That way you may be able to offset the capital gains and avoid some taxes that you would have to pay if you sold later. That kind of advice may actually benefit someone. Did not read a thing about that. Of course I have never listened to a stock brokers advise either.....thank goodness.
Edit: Just a little added note: I have the utmost respect for Legend and Laura. They have done more positive things for this hobby than I could ever hope to in 2 lifetimes. I just did not agree with this particular article on several points.
I am happy lately when i get a low ball offer on coins i have listed on ebay.
In a way nothing will change except the prices. Dealers will get even more greedy with low ball offers. The consumer will still not have the upper hand. Hopefully the one thing we will not see alot of anymore is blantant coin rips from dealers. Earilier this year a mpl sold at a major auction for 9k. Lots of dealers and coin collectors look at this coin. They decided it was worth 9k that day. 30 days or so later the very same coin shows up on a different dealers site for 15k. (my numbers are not 100 percent accurate but you get the drift) Stuff like this ruins the market and somebody takes a bath in the end big time. Hyper inflation with nothing to back up the value.
I did a few pm exchanges with 291fifth a little more than 30 days ago. He helped me make up my mind to sell some of my coins. I sold 25k in less than 10 days at what i consider fair prices.
30 days later (now) i can not even get a decent offer on what i call good coins. I have sold a few bags of Lincoln wheat cents for 325 and 535 a bag, other than those nothing seems to move.
The last few shows i have been to have been DEAD, no matter what others have said. I do not see wads of 100's changing hands and even bullion is slow at shows due to the greed factor.
I am happy where i am sitting but i am going to go slow on rebuying for a while. I want to see where I THINK this is heading since it is MY money.
Legend is just blowing smoke,they are in trouble themselves. They are the suppose top of the food chain and they were having major price discounts a few weeks ago. Laura made a u tube video spraying out coin propaganda to try to keep her company afloat. She stated they were going to carry 25 percent fewer coins in 2009, the real number will be much less. They (legend) will adapt to the market. Reguardless Legend will survive due to the simple fact Laura could make a living in any field she choses to enter. The bonus checks will just be lower.
Mark NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!! working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
Legend is just blowing smoke,they are in trouble themselves. They are the suppose top of the food chain and they were having major price discounts a few weeks ago. Laura made a u tube video spraying out coin propaganda to try to keep her company afloat. She stated they were going to carry 25 percent fewer coins in 2009, the real number will be much less. They (legend) will adapt to the market. Reguardless Legend will survive due to the simple fact Laura could make a living in any field she choses to enter. The bonus checks will just be lower.
I suggest you stick to things you know something about - rather than pulling wild conjecture out of thin air.
I don't think it takes much insight into the coin market to figure out the second half of this year has adversely affected EVERYONE'S cash flow, including dealers and collectors. Couple that with an absolutely HUGE FUN Heritage auction and you have to wonder where all the money is going to come from to absorb all this stuff...
This particular sentence in the Legend Market Report really hit home with me: "It’s ridiculous to think that coins would not be affected any further by all the turmoil [in the financial markets]".
It is ridiculous to think that the coin market is immune to the massive downturn in the global economy. The destruction of trillions of dollars of wealth cannot not have an impact. The impact will trickle or flood into the coin market in varying degrees over the course of the next year. I agree with Legend that the downturn has already begun. Whether dealers want to admit to it or not is up to them, but at some point there will be no denying it.
If you are in it for the long-haul, no worries. Although I will admit that I have similar concerns as fc, except maybe with a little different spin. My expereince at coin shows (mostly local, 50 tables) has been that not only is the majority of the patrons older, but they tend to be of the same type (white, males). There is very little diversity to the gender or ethnic base at these shows and this should be concerning. The fact of the matter is that the country is getting more and more diverse each year. Within the next 20 -30 years this will be a problem for US coins if not addressed soon by the collecting community.
- this collector's thoughts and opinions
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage. ANA Member R-3147111
I don't sell coins from my collection unless I simply lose interest in the series.
Lately, I have place many many bids that I thought were a little too high for coins that I really wanted. I lost those bids, sometimes to much much higher ones. At present, I have little interest in coin purchasing or winning auction lots. I would say that I am simply worn out.
IF, the coin market starts dropping, I will be hesitant to buy until I am confident the market has hit bottom.
I collect Capped Bust series by variety in PCGS AU/MS grades.
- Great coins go quietly off the market and will not be available. They don't get cheaper.
Rick - This was not in the least bit true in the crashes of 1980 or 1991. (I have the scars to prove it!) Why would you expect it to be different this time?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Rick - This was not in the least bit true in the crashes of 1980 or 1991. (I have the scars to prove it!) Why would you expect it to be different this time?
It may not be different. But then again, it might. I don't think over-promotion of prices in the bid market plays as big a role as it did in 1991. I don't think overgrading and overpricing is as severe as it was in 1980. However to the effect the outside forces have an influence, yes, we don't know.
During the periods after a downturn or crash, most of the best coins were held back as long as possible. The Eliasberg gold was sold in a poor market and did ok for the time (and in hindsight very well for those who bought). My point is if they are in strong hands they get put away. Most dealers are not strong hands - they need to sell to stay in business. BTW, got any Stellas?
<< <i> In a market downturn this seems to be be true:
- Great coins go quietly off the market and will not be available. They don't get cheaper.
Rick - This was not in the least bit true in the crashes of 1980 or 1991. (I have the scars to prove it!) Why would you expect it to be different this time? >>
Generally, the psychology of markets dictates that in the early stages of a downturn, the most valuable assets are not sold. When those assets finally do start to appear, it's a good sign that a bottom is near.
"...the coin market may have already crashed, dealers just don't know it. "
Crash may be too strong a word, but that assertion is not too far off the mark. A lot of people, dealers and collectors alike, are going to need to seriously adjust their expectations.
Comments
<< <i>I just read the Legend market report (Link), which was excellent, as usual.
The quote in the title is of someone else, not Laura. (Read the full report for context.) Could it be true and, if so, how could it be? >>
Just read it as well. The advice about selling NOW may be valid, but what does that do to your proceeds when everyone and his dog is selling the same kind of stuff?
The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal!
Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one...
WS
I'm glad I'm a collector.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
I read it. Laura would do good to read DQB book on "Everything you wanted to know about coins", or some such title, don't remember exactly.
The other thing is 'Buy when others are selling, sell when others are buying". The thing with most humans, they are inpatient and always follow the herd. Everyone dumping will create a great buying opportunity for those that can think long term.
<< <i>Looks accurate to me, I am sure the "I do not see the sky falling" folks will chime in.
WS >>
What about the folks that are in for the L-O-N-G term. I don't care about downturns or crashes. I have what I like and will keep it through multiple cycles.
<< <i>"So if you see a coin you want and it’s in an inventory with NO CAC coins (because the dealer is not a CAC member), tell the dealer to get it CAC'd or you won't buy it. >>
Yep. There's a new flavor of Kool-Aid in town.
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
Successful, problem free and pleasant transactions with: illini420, coinguy1, weather11am,wayneherndon,wondercoin,Topdollarpaid,Julian, bishdigg,seateddime, peicesofme,ajia,CoinRaritiesOnline,savoyspecial,Boom, TorinoCobra71, ModernCoinMart, WTCG, slinc, Patches, Gerard, pocketpiececommems, BigJohnD, RickMilauskas, mirabella, Smittys, LeeG, TomB, DeusExMachina, tydye
Sensibly stated that should mean that 1500 dollar coin you couldn't touch in '08 for less than 3k should settle back down to 1800-2K. We are going to pop a bubble but a pop 3 coin still isn't getting any more common. See you in 2015 for the next heathy cyclical run-up. Until then good luck but enjoy your collection....you worked hard for it.
I'm not sure I like that, but I'll bet my dealer will still wheel and deal and still get the better end of the deal when it's done. I think they know a thing or two.
<< <i>I disagree with the following statement in the report:
The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal!
Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one... >>
Wow, you could not be more dead on!! I always ask my Niece what she thinks of a coin (she is 12 going on 30) and I get a no holds barred opinion. She likes to look at my purchases and her words are usually "messy. ugly.too shiny, pretty and cool"
Like Ziggy, I don't agree with the statement about showing a coin to someone who knows nothing about coins. Most collectors can't grade or detect surface alterations. The general public will be even worse.
Also, if you have waited till now to sell your second rate coins, just who are you going to sell them to? Dealers aren't going to want them unless you are virtually giving them away. I hope you haven't been buying "market acceptable" coins because you are going to find that they are no longer "market acceptable."
Liquidity is going to be a very big problem.
It's going to be interesting to see how the various pricing guides react.
The CAC bit is pure hype and detracts from the article. Learn to grade and detect surface alteration. This is not the time to be a liberal grader.
Seriously, it just reads like working up to an advertisiment for CAC. I really have no problem if someone wants a fourth party opinion on a coin, but for me it has absolutely no bearing on whether, or for how much, I pay or bid on a coin. And to walk away from a coin because a dealer won't submit to CAC is just stupid. I was going to try to come up with a better word, but stupid seems to fit.
At the Houston money show I sold a couple of duplicates that I have upgraded to dealers for much more than I expected, so the market wasn't that bad a couple of weeks ago.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>In my opinion, Laura is leaving out an important element - silver and gold prices. If we see a bullish trend in PM's, it would bring new and return money into the coin market, causing prices to increase. The mint is also cutting back on their PM offerings, so that should help the generic gold. >>
There are some very good points made in this thread, and this is one of them.
Could rising precious metals prices buoy an otherwise weak coin market?
Could a drop in PM prices exacerbate an already sagging coin market?
the major worry should be if the hobby stagnates over the next
several years
as most collectors are older... will fresh young faces will the gaps?
I have my doubts.
<< <i>natural cycle of expensive hobbies.
the major worry should be if the hobby stagnates over the next
several years
as most collectors are older... will fresh young faces will the gaps?
I have my doubts. >>
You are just saying all that negative stuff to try to get me to sell you my 61-D $5 for pennies on the dollar.
<< <i>
<< <i>natural cycle of expensive hobbies.
the major worry should be if the hobby stagnates over the next
several years
as most collectors are older... will fresh young faces will the gaps?
I have my doubts. >>
You are just saying all that negative stuff to try to get me to sell you my 61-D $5 for pennies on the dollar.
it would fit my collection nicely! keep me in mind ;-)
i will sell my soul to get it.
Ray
<< <i>I disagree with the following statement in the report:
The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal!
Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one... >>
Actually, I am going to do something I rarely do and disagree with Ziggy here. Assuming that the coin is all there quality wise, I think that the typical numismatic outsider is very good at telling attractive coins from those that are not. My wife is a good example. Sometimes, as collectors, I think we have trouble seeing the forest from the trees, and I have seen numerous examples of this on our very forum.
What does gold bullion have to do with Indian cents or Buffalo nickels, or even rare dated gold coins?
Take a read over at the PM Forum. Why would someone putting their money in gold because they think the dollar will weaken or because they fear a collapse in our finanical institutions or hyperinflation alla Zimbabwe buy rare coins instead?
Edit to add: I note that this thread is void of comments from full-time dealers.
CG
I found this statement to be intriguing:
"If they don't want too-which primarily happens with the Indian, Lincoln Cent , and Buffalo Nickel dealers (mentioned because there are one or two retalers who are nothing more than fronts for the guys who doctor those coins) , then that should be proof enough to go elsewhere."
It is fairly well known that the Indian and Lincoln cent area is a little "suspect" when it comes to the doctors. However, I never knew that the Buffalo nickel area was overrun by these fleas. Has anyone heard this before?
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>It is fairly well known that the Indian and Lincoln cent area is a little "suspect" when it comes to the doctors. However, I never knew that the Buffalo nickel area was overrun by these fleas. Has anyone heard this before? >>
The doctors are everywhere! That is why you MUST have all your coins CAC certified!! If they don't have a sticker a coin doctor might have touched them. Better yet, we'll take them non stickered coins off your hands for 60% off sheet!!! Then sell you CAC stickered coins at 40% over sheet! That way you'll know a coin doctor has never touched one of your coins!
<< <i>I disagree with the following statement in the report:
The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal!
Many people who know nothing about coins think they need to be cleaned up and shiny to look their best. So someone who knows nothing about coins is likely to "ooh" and "ahh" over a cleaned/whizzed coin than an original one... >>
Well assuming that you have weeded out the dregs, Laura makes a valid point. Why would you ask a novice's opinion of something that you know is a turd unless you are trying to teach them something?
<< <i>to walk away from a coin because a dealer won't submit to CAC is just stupid. >>
I don't believe that a coin that is worth the asking price is aware of the presence or absence of what's on the label, much less if there's a sticker over the label. Pure chicanery.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
<< <i>The best test to determine if a coin has good eye appeal (if you can't tell)-show it to someone who knows nothing about coins. If they immediately say its pretty, bang! You have eye appeal! >>
wow, alot of whizzed coins sure got some eye appeal!
K S
- Great coins go quietly off the market and will not be available. They don't get cheaper.
- The junk will come out of the woodwork looking for buyers.
- buyers will pass rather than counter-offer on junk, or if the do buy it is for a flop.
The bottom line is the great coins hold up for the long term. Junk is, well, junk.
I had to giggle with the statement "The market may have already crashed, but dealers don't know it yet". The only thing I could think of is was this: If the market has indeed crashed, then it is only uphill from here (last I checked, crash meant bottom). So why all the negative talk about the future, if we have already seen the crash?
If you are a dealer, wanting to buy right now, why scare everyone? Go with a positive. Something along the lines of: If you took a bad hit in the stock market and have losses, this might be a good time to sell coins you hold that have a profit. That way you may be able to offset the capital gains and avoid some taxes that you would have to pay if you sold later. That kind of advice may actually benefit someone. Did not read a thing about that.
Of course I have never listened to a stock brokers advise either.....thank goodness.
Edit: Just a little added note: I have the utmost respect for Legend and Laura. They have done more positive things for this hobby than I could ever hope to in 2 lifetimes. I just did not agree with this particular article on several points.
In a way nothing will change except the prices. Dealers will get even more greedy with low ball offers. The consumer will still not have the upper hand. Hopefully the one thing we will not see alot of anymore is blantant coin rips from dealers. Earilier this year a mpl sold at a major auction for 9k. Lots of dealers and coin collectors look at this coin. They decided it was worth 9k that day. 30 days or so later the very same coin shows up on a different dealers site for 15k. (my numbers are not 100 percent accurate but you get the drift) Stuff like this ruins the market and somebody takes a bath in the end big time. Hyper inflation with nothing to back up the value.
I did a few pm exchanges with 291fifth a little more than 30 days ago. He helped me make up my mind to sell some of my coins. I sold 25k in less than 10 days at what i consider fair prices.
30 days later (now) i can not even get a decent offer on what i call good coins. I have sold a few bags of Lincoln wheat cents for 325 and 535 a bag, other than those nothing seems to move.
The last few shows i have been to have been DEAD, no matter what others have said. I do not see wads of 100's changing hands and even bullion is slow at shows due to the greed factor.
I am happy where i am sitting but i am going to go slow on rebuying for a while. I want to see where I THINK this is heading since it is MY money.
Legend is just blowing smoke,they are in trouble themselves. They are the suppose top of the food chain and they were having major price discounts a few weeks ago. Laura made a u tube video spraying out coin propaganda to try to keep her company afloat. She stated they were going to carry 25 percent fewer coins in 2009, the real number will be much less. They (legend) will adapt to the market. Reguardless Legend will survive due to the simple fact Laura could make a living in any field she choses to enter. The bonus checks will just be lower.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
I know for a fact that Laura is vacationing in Hawaii right now with not a care in the world...
I suggest you stick to things you know something about - rather than pulling wild conjecture out of thin air.
john
It is ridiculous to think that the coin market is immune to the massive downturn in the global economy. The destruction of trillions of dollars of wealth cannot not have an impact. The impact will trickle or flood into the coin market in varying degrees over the course of the next year. I agree with Legend that the downturn has already begun. Whether dealers want to admit to it or not is up to them, but at some point there will be no denying it.
If you are in it for the long-haul, no worries. Although I will admit that I have similar concerns as fc, except maybe with a little different spin. My expereince at coin shows (mostly local, 50 tables) has been that not only is the majority of the patrons older, but they tend to be of the same type (white, males). There is very little diversity to the gender or ethnic base at these shows and this should be concerning. The fact of the matter is that the country is getting more and more diverse each year. Within the next 20 -30 years this will be a problem for US coins if not addressed soon by the collecting community.
- this collector's thoughts and opinions
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
Lately, I have place many many bids that I thought were a little too high for coins that I really wanted. I lost those bids, sometimes to much much higher ones. At present, I have little interest in coin purchasing or winning auction lots. I would say that I am simply worn out.
IF, the coin market starts dropping, I will be hesitant to buy until I am confident the market has hit bottom.
In a market downturn this seems to be be true:
- Great coins go quietly off the market and will not be available. They don't get cheaper.
Rick - This was not in the least bit true in the crashes of 1980 or 1991. (I have the scars to prove it!) Why would you expect it to be different this time?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I suggest you stick to things you know something about - rather than pulling wild conjecture out of thin air.
Bruce - That's pretty blunt. I'm sure there are some other things Laura could do.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
It may not be different. But then again, it might. I don't think over-promotion of prices in the bid market plays as big a role as it did in 1991. I don't think overgrading and overpricing is as severe as it was in 1980. However to the effect the outside forces have an influence, yes, we don't know.
During the periods after a downturn or crash, most of the best coins were held back as long as possible. The Eliasberg gold was sold in a poor market and did ok for the time (and in hindsight very well for those who bought). My point is if they are in strong hands they get put away. Most dealers are not strong hands - they need to sell to stay in business. BTW, got any Stellas?
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In a market downturn this seems to be be true:
- Great coins go quietly off the market and will not be available. They don't get cheaper.
Rick - This was not in the least bit true in the crashes of 1980 or 1991. (I have the scars to prove it!) Why would you expect it to be different this time? >>
Generally, the psychology of markets dictates that in the early stages of a downturn, the most valuable
assets are not sold. When those assets finally do start to appear, it's a good sign that a bottom is near.
Crash may be too strong a word, but that assertion is not too far off the mark. A lot of people, dealers and collectors alike, are going to need to seriously adjust their expectations.
Russ, NCNE