Remember, all the outstanding "backorders" will either be filled with returns or canceled. If filled with returns, the returns will decrease the "sales". If canceled, that will also decrease the "sales". I personally have orders for the the quarters that were placed on the evening of 10/21. The original confirmation emails from the mint listed a shipping date of 11/06. I then received more email from the mint on 10/23 stating a shipping date of 11/02. I received more email on 11/6 stating a shipping date of 11/21. I received more email on 11/21 stating a shipping date of 12/06. The US Mint's website now shows a shipping date of 12/15.
My point is, I highly doubt I will receive these coins...those orders will be canceled and the quantity subtracted from the total sold. And if by some stroke of luck I do get them, it will only be because someone else returned them, and their returns will be subtracted from the "sales" total.
Either way, the quantity stated as "sales" will be substantantially declining.
Guys I don't think you understand just how bad the data from the weekly (order) sales report can be.
Go look up the final weekly sales report for 2007 "w" gold eagles and then look at the final final numbers for 2007w gold
$50...18,609.......thats a 6,000 coin drop! $25...11,458 $10...12,786 $5......22,501
Every denomination shows a multi thousand coin drop!
So please explain to me how anybody can have any kind of faith in the 4000 mintage numbers that keep flying around the board for the 2008-w plats.
I am working on memory for the 2007w gold weekly sales report numbers. I cant find my copy. Somebody help me out so we can see exactly how bad the weekly sales report was off.
On eBay at the moment, I count 45 $10 1/10 ounce 2008-W burnished plats for sale, and only 16 $25 1/4 ounce burnished coins. This takes into account the multiple coins available in some of the listings.
No guarantees, but I consider this to be strong evidence that the actual population of 1/4 ounce is considerably less than the population of 1/10 ounce 2008-W burnished plats.
Edited to add: FWIW, I count only 11 2008-W burnished 4-coin sets on eBay at the moment.
If you consider the 2008 W w/ 2007 W Reverse as a sub-series, I would speculate that the 2008 W Silver now at 413,631 - 47,000 = 366K could be the 2nd lowest
1. 2008 W w/ 2007 W Reverse = 47K
2. 2008 W = 366K now maybe to 400K
3. 2006 W = 470K
4.) 2007 W = 500k+ >>
Here's where they're at: 413,631 +32,060 (annual dollar sets)=445,691 - 08/07's (46,318) = 399,373 vs. 470,000 2006W's...
All we need now is 20 times the 158 serious platinum series collectors that are currently out there and we'll all be rich beyond our wildest dreams! Until then, we'll just keep buying and selling amongst ourselves waiting for that glorious day to arrive. Then again, how many plats went into the melting pot when it broke $2K?
<< <i>You can add 171 1/4 ounce plats that were cancelled for me from 10/22 to10/30... hopefully that will put a dent in the mints population stats!! >>
<< <i>You can add 171 1/4 ounce plats that were cancelled for me from 10/22 to10/30... hopefully that will put a dent in the mints population stats!! >>
Those were canceled today, right?
FloridaBill >>
yes.. all my backorders were cancelled starting with 10/22 at 12:26pm to my last backorder on 10/30
If the Mint site is accepting 15 - 20% more than they can fulfill, what difference are the cancellations. Should we be thinking the 15 - 20% overage orders are still in play, or are they the orders that were cancelled after the return window ended, & orders were fulfilled to mintage?
Shooting the dice here, but truly think cancellations don't play a role in estimating mintage.
if the Mint site is accepting 15 - 20% more than they can fulfill, what difference are the cancellations.
Agreed!
That range is just someone's fantasy.
Pure and simple fantasy. No logic, no facts to back up the claim.
The fact is, the US Mint bid out the contract to run US Mint Product Sales and the new contractor is MORE efficient than the old contractor, PSWeb.
Weekly Sales Numbers have been updated against returns on a running basis. In fact, Final Sales and Final mintage for the bullion should come in closer than ever before because of the new point of sale system the new contractor is using.
<< <i>if the Mint site is accepting 15 - 20% more than they can fulfill, what difference are the cancellations.
Agreed!
That range is just someone's fantasy.
Pure and simple fantasy. No logic, no facts to back up the claim.
The fact is, the US Mint bid out the contract to run US Mint Product Sales and the new contractor is MORE efficient than the old contractor, PSWeb.
Weekly Sales Numbers have been updated against returns on a running basis. In fact, Final Sales and Final mintage for the bullion should come in closer than ever before because of the new point of sale system the new contractor is using. >>
The orders are still being filled by the old contractor in Memphis, not the new one in Indiana.
The sales have been stacked at least 900-1000 coins over-ordered on the 1/4 and at least 800-900 sets on the 4 coins set, as well as 500 pieces on the 1/10.
This is due to the fear of having HUGE returns of stock, as they experienced in July August timeframe.
None of the sales numbers make sense given the poor sales in July, the spot price of Pt skyrocketing early this year, the huge cost of material to the Mint, and the severe price drop in October with the USM selling for a loss.
They NEVER would have even produced on par with 2007 given those conditions. Any marketing dept knows better than that.....
But you sit back and state that a number of 2115 pieces on the 1/4 unc stacks up "just fine" against last years (2007) single coin issue of 1228?
Wake up, smell the coffee, the ordering system and vendor could be the best in the known world - that doesnt change the fact that the floodgates for orders was wide open - accepting as many orders as possible to ensure sellout....
cancellations DO MATTER when the sales report is REALLY and ORDERS TAKEN report.
this has been confirmed earlier in other threads by no other than the USM.....
they take orders far in excess of inventory, when coins are returned, they dont bump the order count UP one, they bump it DOWN one -
why?? because the order to accept the returned good was already counted in their sales.
the order returned is cancelled upon return, dropping the sales/orders by 1.
outside of returns, eventually the USM has to believe that they will not be receiving as many returns needed to fill orders taken, so,
they cancel the orders taken in excess of stock, from some point, to ensure enough still exist in the possibility other returns are placed with new customers (if this should happen)
this is happening now by confirmed reports that orders placed very late in the evening of 10/21 EST and on have been cancelled. Large orders placed at sellout or just after still remain UNFILLED.
the cancellations will decrease the number of sales on the sales report next week......I think they were a little late for this weeks report, but we will see.
Comments
At least with the Moderns, we don't have to worry about the fake coins too much!
After reading the Part 2 CoinWorld Article, I feel like swearing off all coins dated before 1948!
<< <i>I'm a little unnerved by that too.
The 1/4 being the closest in size to the beloved Buffalo Nickel, big enough to see and appreciate the design. The 1/4 prf should be gone.
The 1/2 in the set or alone is a dog too. The prosperity set blows that coin.
The 1/10 is too damn small. >>
Have you seen the Prosperity Set #s reported, or do they simply include the .5s in the Pros. Set w/the .5 Unc #s?
My point is, I highly doubt I will receive these coins...those orders will be canceled and the quantity subtracted from the total sold. And if by some stroke of luck I do get them, it will only be because someone else returned them, and their returns will be subtracted from the "sales" total.
Either way, the quantity stated as "sales" will be substantantially declining.
FloridaBill
I guess someone could file a freedom of information request.......
Go look up the final weekly sales report for 2007 "w" gold eagles and then look at the final final numbers for 2007w gold
$50...18,609.......thats a 6,000 coin drop!
$25...11,458
$10...12,786
$5......22,501
Every denomination shows a multi thousand coin drop!
So please explain to me how anybody can have any kind of faith in the 4000 mintage numbers that keep flying around the board for the 2008-w plats.
I am working on memory for the 2007w gold weekly sales report numbers. I cant find my copy. Somebody help me out so we can see exactly how bad the weekly sales report was off.
The fact that they took 2165 orders for the plats shows tremendous speculation, and with that amount the number can be anywhere.
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
We don't know.
And yet with all that speculation the 2008 W coins today on Ebay sell like a cold virus.
No guarantees, but I consider this to be strong evidence that the actual population of 1/4 ounce is considerably less than the population of 1/10 ounce 2008-W burnished plats.
Edited to add: FWIW, I count only 11 2008-W burnished 4-coin sets on eBay at the moment.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Thought that the W-SAE would be a key.
If you consider the 2008 W w/ 2007 W Reverse as a sub-series, I would speculate that the 2008 W Silver now at 413,631 - 47,000 = 366K could be the 2nd lowest
1. 2008 W w/ 2007 W Reverse = 47K
2. 2008 W = 366K now maybe to 400K
3. 2006 W = 470K
4.) 2007 W = 500k+ >>
Here's where they're at: 413,631 +32,060 (annual dollar sets)=445,691 - 08/07's (46,318) = 399,373 vs. 470,000 2006W's...
Difference of 70,627....
<< <i>I love the back n forth, too, Groht.
At least with the Moderns, we don't have to worry about the fake coins too much!
After reading the Part 2 CoinWorld Article, I feel like swearing off all coins dated before 1948! >>
Well it is going to get interesting to say the least...all bets are on....on which way it will turn out.
I know of 2 - 50pc orders cancelled for 1/4's.....in addition to what has been reported on the forum
Next weeks sales numbers (not tomorrow) will show big decreases.....
<< <i>Cancellations of backorders for orders placed on Oct 21 and Oct 22 now starting to roll in......
I know of 2 - 50pc orders cancelled for 1/4's.....in addition to what has been reported on the forum
Next weeks sales numbers (not tomorrow) will show big decreases..... >>
You can add 171 1/4 ounce plats that were cancelled for me from 10/22 to10/30... hopefully that will put a dent in the mints population stats!!
<< <i>You can add 171 1/4 ounce plats that were cancelled for me from 10/22 to10/30... hopefully that will put a dent in the mints population stats!! >>
Those were canceled today, right?
FloridaBill
<< <i>
<< <i>Cancellations of backorders for orders placed on Oct 21 and Oct 22 now starting to roll in......
I know of 2 - 50pc orders cancelled for 1/4's.....in addition to what has been reported on the forum
Next weeks sales numbers (not tomorrow) will show big decreases..... >>
You can add 171 1/4 ounce plats that were cancelled for me from 10/22 to10/30... hopefully that will put a dent in the mints population stats!! >>
Hmmmmm...
<< <i>
<< <i>You can add 171 1/4 ounce plats that were cancelled for me from 10/22 to10/30... hopefully that will put a dent in the mints population stats!! >>
Those were canceled today, right?
FloridaBill >>
yes.. all my backorders were cancelled starting with 10/22 at 12:26pm to my last backorder on 10/30
I know of 100 more
=271
1938-271=1668 and going south.........
<<I know of 100 more>>
<<=271>>
<<1938-271=1668 and going south......... >>
You can also add my 2...also cancelled today...to the tally.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Any large orders of 4-coin sets being canceled? >>
Yeah I bummed, the mint just canceled my order for 900 sets.
<< <i>guys we have forum members saying that 171+40=211 1/4 oz plat uncs cancelled today (previously backordered)
I know of 100 more
=271
1938-271=1668 and going south......... >>
ADD 8 more.
San Diego, CA
Shooting the dice here, but truly think cancellations don't play a role in estimating mintage.
Agreed!
That range is just someone's fantasy.
Pure and simple fantasy. No logic, no facts to back up the claim.
The fact is, the US Mint bid out the contract to run US Mint Product Sales and the new contractor is MORE efficient than the old contractor, PSWeb.
Weekly Sales Numbers have been updated against returns on a running basis. In fact, Final Sales and Final mintage for the bullion should come in closer than ever before because of the new point of sale system the new contractor is using.
<< <i>if the Mint site is accepting 15 - 20% more than they can fulfill, what difference are the cancellations.
Agreed!
That range is just someone's fantasy.
Pure and simple fantasy. No logic, no facts to back up the claim.
The fact is, the US Mint bid out the contract to run US Mint Product Sales and the new contractor is MORE efficient than the old contractor, PSWeb.
Weekly Sales Numbers have been updated against returns on a running basis. In fact, Final Sales and Final mintage for the bullion should come in closer than ever before because of the new point of sale system the new contractor is using. >>
The orders are still being filled by the old contractor in Memphis, not the new one in Indiana.
The sales have been stacked at least 900-1000 coins over-ordered on the 1/4 and at least 800-900 sets on the 4 coins set, as well as 500 pieces on the 1/10.
This is due to the fear of having HUGE returns of stock, as they experienced in July August timeframe.
None of the sales numbers make sense given the poor sales in July, the spot price of Pt skyrocketing early this year, the huge cost of material to the Mint, and the severe price drop in October with the USM selling for a loss.
They NEVER would have even produced on par with 2007 given those conditions. Any marketing dept knows better than that.....
But you sit back and state that a number of 2115 pieces on the 1/4 unc stacks up "just fine" against last years (2007) single coin issue of 1228?
Wake up, smell the coffee, the ordering system and vendor could be the best in the known world - that doesnt change the fact that the floodgates for orders was wide open - accepting as many orders as possible to ensure sellout....
cancellations DO MATTER when the sales report is REALLY and ORDERS TAKEN report.
this has been confirmed earlier in other threads by no other than the USM.....
they take orders far in excess of inventory, when coins are returned, they dont bump the order count UP one, they bump it DOWN one -
why?? because the order to accept the returned good was already counted in their sales.
the order returned is cancelled upon return, dropping the sales/orders by 1.
outside of returns, eventually the USM has to believe that they will not be receiving as many returns needed to fill orders taken, so,
they cancel the orders taken in excess of stock, from some point, to ensure enough still exist in the possibility other returns are placed with new customers (if this should happen)
this is happening now by confirmed reports that orders placed very late in the evening of 10/21 EST and on have been cancelled. Large orders placed at sellout or just after still remain UNFILLED.
the cancellations will decrease the number of sales on the sales report next week......I think they were a little late for this weeks report, but we will see.
? what % MS69 vs. MS70??
I was very disappointed over quality and I wonder if there will be a below average % grading MS70??
12-04-2008 mINT sTATS
Old Sales New Sales Unit Change % Increase Notes
1 ounce 980 1,522 542 55.3% Sold Out
1/2 ounce 1,257 1,257 0 0.0% Sold Out
1/4 ounce 1,923 1,905 (18) -0.9% Sold Out
1/10 ounce 2,485 2,485 0 0.0% Sold Out
4 coin set 2,158 2,158 0 0.0% Sold Out
<< <i>Anyone have a break down on how the 2008-W uncirculated plats are grading out at PCGS
? what % MS69 vs. MS70??
I was very disappointed over quality and I wonder if there will be a below average % grading MS70?? >>
Nothing listed for the 1 oz yet for the W's, the pop report for the 1/2 oz W's is at MS69-75, MS70-140