After Baltimore...What is the Consensus?

OneCent · November 22, 2008 1:40PM

I've read almost all of the show reports here and can't seem to get a read on activity at the Baltimore show.

Was it business as usual or have things noticeably slowed down? I can't believe that after the last 6 weeks and trillions of dollars in wealth evaporating everything is hunky dory. But, maybe it is.

Has the B'more show given us a clear read on the coin market (not including bullion) or is the jury still out?

MidLifeCrisis · November 22, 2008 1:56PM

I like reading coin show reports from both collectors and dealers. However, it's very hard to form an accurate assessment of the overall market from one, or even several reports, because they reflect the writer's perspective. If the writer achieved his or her goals at the show, then it was a good show.

Coin show reports also tend to focus on one or two specific numismatic areas, depending on the writer's areas of interest.

As I've stated in other threads...I enjoyed the Baltimore show and I'm very satisfied with my results. I didn't pay too much attention to how many people were there on Friday, but I will say that it seemed like most other shows to me. I was usually able to talk with dealers or view their cases with little or no waiting. Sometimes, though, I did have to wait or circle back to a dealer because there was a lot of activity at their table.

What does this say about Baltimore? I have no idea.

Goldbully · November 22, 2008 1:59PM

The jury is still out.

My coin collection is weathering the storm far better than U.S. equities!!!

Julian Leidman said sales were definitely down at this show around 2:00pm today.

This is of course, the first major coin show after a major Dow/NASDAQ meltdown.

Keep the faith folks, good times will be back before you know it!!!!

Unknown · November 22, 2008 2:19PM

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mrearlygold · November 22, 2008 2:54PM

Slow

WTCG · November 22, 2008 3:10PM

In one line here's my opinion about the show...

Show was still decent although attendance wasn't as strong as before and dealers reported okay retail sales while wholesale was still solid.

MidLifeCrisis · November 22, 2008 3:21PM

<< <i>In one line here's my opinion about the show...

Show was still decent although attendance wasn't as strong as before and dealers reported okay retail sales while wholesale was still solid. >>

Are you comparing attendance to previous November shows in Baltimore? Or to the ANA in August and other summer shows?

I suspect the current economy has many people spooked when it comes to spending money on hobbies...but how was attendance at the show last November?

WTCG · November 22, 2008 3:26PM

<< <i>

<< <i>In one line here's my opinion about the show...

Show was still decent although attendance wasn't as strong as before and dealers reported okay retail sales while wholesale was still solid. >>

Are you comparing attendance to previous November shows in Baltimore? Or to the ANA in August and other summer shows?

I suspect the current economy has many people spooked when it comes to spending money on hobbies...but how was attendance at the show last November? >>

I guess I can say that I am comparing this show to previous March and November/ December shows. The summer shows are always the most lightly attended and the ANA is a totally different event.

I recall that attendance was quite strong at last year's winter show. Even at this show there were times during the morning hours that the bourse floor appeared busy.

pennyannie · November 22, 2008 4:13PM

I thought the local fort worth tx show 2 weeks ago was dead reguardless of any glowing reports dealers or promoters may have given. I based that on the few hours i was there walking around. I saw very little cash changing hands or material.

But then in the last 7 days i have sold in excess of 20k in coins for more money than i thought i would have gotten considering the times, If fact i got 25 percent more than i figured. Some of these coins were offered at the fort worth show and as a few examples 195 offered, ebay returned 360, 310 offered, ebay returned 580 and 500 offered returned 810 on ebay.

Unknown · November 22, 2008 4:49PM

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abitofthisabitofthat · November 22, 2008 8:39PM

I thought Baltimore was very slow - for a November Balt show. Not just my personal opinion, but from candid conversations with about a dozen dealers. Foot traffic was light for retail, with more browsers and fewer buyers. Wholesale was decent - but you had to work at it. I was there all day Thurs and Fri. Several dealers who usually have customers two deep at their tables were looking for things to do. Everyone I talked to was nervous - everyone.

Coxe · November 22, 2008 11:19PM

Wonder if things will pick up by FUN. My sense is no. If Feb Long Beach is really slow too, the market is dead. I think there is still inertia but the top, middle and bottom ends are all temporarily set back by the economy and job losses.

Sunnywood · November 22, 2008 11:46PM

Cassandra speaks again ... you're all dreaming if you think the plunging stock, bond and real estate markets are irrelevant to coins. By Thursday afternoon, the stock market was down 25% just since the election, and that's after an horrendous October in which it was already down 20%. How many people are going to take time off work, jump in a car and drive to a coin show to spend serious money under those circumstances? The middle to high end of the coin market is in for a bumpy ride. I was planning to drive to Baltimore Thursday afternoon or Friday morning, but the freshly plunging markets put an end to that plan. (Thank Goodness there was a final hour bounce on Friday, but that is a drop in the bucket after the declines we've had.)

By some measures, stocks are now down 50% since their October 2007 peak, and have retraced back to 1997 levels. Have coin prices retraced back to 1997 levels like the S&P500? Absolutely not. That retracement has barely begun in coins. At the high end, many coins are selling for 5x 1997 levels, even moreso if you consider how many coins get upgraded and "made." That goes for "Modern Crap" too. Even more are selling for 2x to 3x; wide swaths of the market are substantially elevated. It is unsustainable.

Oh sure, you can point two one or two lots that did spectacularly well at auction ... it only takes a few very wealthy and determined collectors to produce a result like that. But many lots went unsold, failing to meet unrealistic reserves just as homes with unrealistic asking prices are creating an inventory overhang in the housing market. Others sold without reserve at puny levels. So the weakness is beginning to show up - but the coin market still hasn't gotten its needed dose of reality.

Best (?),
Sunnywood

ScarsdaleCoin · November 23, 2008 12:01AM

Baltimore was way off.... most dealers who are being honest will tell you they did not have a wonderful busy show..... traffic was way light....(maybe a parade on Sat hurt since people could not attend easily) all in all dealer to dealer sales have also slowed as dealers just are not sure what they should be doing.... bright spot was a heavy rise of bullion gold jumping $50 dollars / oz approx which spurred some movement..... FUN will be better indication...next

tradedollarnut · November 23, 2008 12:06AM

There's still a lot of money available for the right coins - some of that is because people are afraid to put it in the stock market. But the coin market is going to get very very weak when people en masse decide the time is right to jump back into stocks. Seems to me after it all unwinds it will be a once in a lifetime buying opportunity.

slumlord98 · November 23, 2008 12:15AM

Stacks and B+M auctions of bust halves were way, way down. Combine very low sell throughs with significantly lower prices and you can say that the market for early halves is in a sudden tail spin.

In the B+M sale, lot 2234 sold for $6038 vs. $8050 at the summer ANA; lot 2238 sold for $4025 vs. $5463 at FUN; lot 2245 for $3680 vs. $5750 at the Reiver sale in Jan. '06.

RYK · November 23, 2008 12:17AM

Sunnywood, despite your apparent unexplainable love affair with Morgans

, I agree with you completely. Having seen my nest egg decimated over the last few months, I have canceled my plans to attend FUN, for example, as well as a winter break vacation for my family and scaled down our spring break vacation substantially. I have also stalled my wife from buying some extra home furnishings that she believes we absolutely, positively need, much to her chagrin. With that sort of mindset, how can I justify continuing to spend money on coins? Well, somehow, I still do, but on a smaller scale than a year ago.

There's no way that the coin market (at least the mid market in which I participate) cannot see some erosion of pricing and reduction in activity, as I am confident that there are a lot of collectors who share my sentiments.

SilverBaron · November 23, 2008 12:33AM

RYK...... I agree 101% ........ I to have decided not to attend the FUN show in Jan.

Better prices for buyers in 2010.

nicknut12 · November 23, 2008 12:55AM

"Seems to me after it all unwinds it will be a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. "

This is problem right now.
Obama and the rich white liberals won big time
in the elections

But nobody really knows what they are going to do.
They did not campaign on any substance.

Are they going to destroy the economy like
Jimmy Carter did?

Are they going to lower the capital gains tax
to create growth like was done by
Bill Clinton & the republicans in the late 90's?

What are they going to do? Nobody knows, most
especially the people who voted for them.

Regards, Steve K.

oreville · November 23, 2008 12:56AM

This was the first show I was able to sit with Mr. Angel Dee Coins for more than 10 minutes (actually over 1/2 hour) without ANY INTERRUPTIONS and in doing so a friend of mine was able to procure a lovely 1055 DDO cent in NGC AU-58 for $2000.

Indeed Baltimore was slower than last year and slow.

But it was good for buyers.

Julian · November 23, 2008 1:25AM

I posted on Yaha's thread a minute ago.

SeaEagleCoins · November 23, 2008 2:43AM

I posted this in another "Report" that slid off the radar... so I'll just copy/paste it to this thread...cause I'm too lazy on a Sunday to rewrite it...

I went to the show with Halfhunter and another friend of ours from our coin clubs we belong to. It certainly was nice not having to drive and just be the passenger... D)

Met up with Wei/WTCG before the doors opened and he had a coin for me that I had already bought off the BST... a nice toned Lib Nickel in PCGS 64... a good start to the day...

We split up to persue our personal interests once we got inside.

My day was a good one... was able to sell a number of pieces although I did encounter a bit of resistance across the floor...as I just read in another thread... unless you wanted real high end or total dreck...there was little to find in my area of interest for the day... Barber, Seated & Bust...and when I did find dates/grades I was seeking, there was either a problem (even in TPG holders) or they wanted moon money.

Encountered many tables with the "I do not have enough time to even acknowledge you" folks behind them...with cases filled with shiny, dipped coins in PCGS plastic...all lined up like a dept store... very boring!!!!!

Did meet a few nice folks but found nothing that really caught my eye. One coin I did want to find was a nice AU 1812 Bust Half...saw one in NGC but it was a 40 but took a look anyway... yeesh... hairlines and scratches under toning and just not appealing...oh well...

Ended up spending most of my time with folks I knew from other shows here where I usually set up in NJ and ended up doing all my buying from a good friend who I usually do business with in the shows up by me... we have almost identical "eyes" for coins and he had been one busy beaver the day before... saved me alot of hunting and was able to pick up a bunch of nice collector coins... nice type... and all raw... a neat little lot of 3c silvers, a few barbers and busties...some better date circ Morgans... a partial set of mercs to refill my "basic" stock... a real cool AU Barber dime in the original ANACS "packet" with the split grade and photo (no slab)...and a real nice choice AU 1810 Bust Half...the common one with the great die cracks...

Was able to make one more large sale on the way out the door and all in all had a good day...

Some observations... floor traffic was light in comparison to my last time there...and dealers all seemed to agree that the traffic was lighter than usual for the entire show...

Also... the market IS changing... big time... a number of dealers may find themselves sitting on alot of over dipped, over priced and over leveraged coins in the very near future. The trend I am seeing is a continuation and growth of what we have already been seeing for a while... I heard it alot today... 5 figure coins, unless they are exceptional (and not over priced) are moveable...the rest are now dead weight...

Alot more folks are looking for nice VF-AU collector coins... and they do not have to be in plastic...

One thing was very obvious though...and good news for our hosts... out of all the coins I brought to sell ONLY the PCGS coins got attention... a few of the dealers contemplated my NGC or ANACS coins but I only was able to sell PCGS (except for two GSA/NGC DPL 63's)...

Hang on to your "halos" folks because I really think the Bear is awake... and already had it's first cup of coffee...

pennyannie · November 23, 2008 3:49AM

Realone- I had a few pcgs and ngc coins with me at the last local show, I had a few dealers offer anywhere from 150 to 195 on one coin. I listed it last week on ebay and it sold for 360 dollars. Basicly all the dealers i tried to deal with were at least 50 percent back of grey sheet bid. I was actually a little concerned that i held too long. Now i think i jumped the gun and left some money on the table but feel lucky to get out of them. All of the coins i sold were my "profit coins" I had sold alot of my collection over the last 18 months and parked the profit in these coins. I did not re coup all my money on some of the more recent purchases but did not lose as much as i feared. I have not lived thru a big coin cycle until now

. I totally plan on jumping back in with both feet at some point. I kept the coins i felt that i could not replace and let the others fly. I think in the long run i will be a lot better off. 1 year on this site has helped me out 5 on the learning curve. (well maybe not, i took the money and bought a new ford powerstroke) If coins are hurting, car dealers are beyond dead. It was irratating have to deal with them. You had the few out looking for a major rip and then a few that were deperate for a sale and slashing prices lower that i thought they could possibly go.

keets · November 23, 2008 4:28AM

i think it's time to stop all the rationalizing which starts with "right" coins, "fresh" material or anything else which seeks to seperate the overall hobby market to say things are OK. those kind of coins/collectors are such a small percentage of what's available/affordable for every collector that they don't present a balanced perspective. heck, if choice $5k coins are doing fine it means nothing to me, but if choice $500 coins are struggling it tells me a lot.

with thinking like that it's been very hesitant for quite some time time with collectors watching what's going on in the economy, the job market and especially their own personal circumstances. bullion price fluctuation have also caused apprehension, primarily from sellers going to dealers. i have watched with interest as show attendance has dwindled, am i the only one who thinks it's time to stop whistling past the graveyard??? the past eight years have been fun but we knew it wouldn't last forever...............................

remember, back in January of '08 many tried to state plainly that the country was in a recession, but those who were doing OK thought nothing was wrong.

Coxe · November 23, 2008 4:34AM

<< <i>There's still a lot of money available for the right coins - some of that is because people are afraid to put it in the stock market. But the coin market is going to get very very weak when people en masse decide the time is right to jump back into stocks. Seems to me after it all unwinds it will be a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. >>

TDN, this applies to stocks and real estate as well. Buying opportunities for the right stuff right now.

Fountainhead · November 23, 2008 5:13AM

Something seemed wrong at the Stack's auction, because a number of the lots which didn't sell had spirited bidding. Meaning that the reserves were set too high. I think reserve sellers generally have to pay a fee even if their lots don't sell - unless their name is Stack.

roadrunner · November 23, 2008 5:37AM

Seems to me after it all unwinds it will be a once in a lifetime buying opportunity.

I agree 100%. But the unwinding is not going to be done for another 3-5 years. For those that can wait that long patiently, it works out fine. Major 20-25 year stock market bottoms don't occur until there is hatred for stocks in general such as in 1932, 1974, and 1982. We have had nothing like that yet. Big shocks, yes, but complete hand wringing and disdain? No. Dead cat bounces will occur (probably right now in fact), but the final tossing out of the baby and its bathwater is years away. The financial system is dead broken and it will take more than a few bail outs, some kind words and band aids over 12 months to fix it. This is a multi-year project where a course has not even been set yet. The extra pumping by the FED from 2002-2006 ensured that the resulting correction from the 1982-2001 bull was only going to be far worse and longer than had we just taken our medicine earlier.

roadrunner

Amigo · November 23, 2008 5:42AM

think it's time to stop all the rationalizing which starts with "right" coins, "fresh" material or anything else which seeks to seperate the overall hobby market to say things are OK. those kind of coins/collectors are such a small percentage of what's available/affordable for every collector that they don't present a balanced perspective. heck, if choice $5k coins are doing fine it means nothing to me, but if choice $500 coins are struggling it tells me a lot.

I generally agree with this statement, but not much else of keets post.

I've been an investor of all sorts since Carter was in the white house. I've seen various cycles. I have several real estate investments. I knew it was all getting overpriced back in 2003, insane in 2005. I could've sold, but made a rational decision. If I sold, there would've been a huge tax bite. Then the bigger question. What to do with the profits ? That's always the final question. I chose to keep all my real estate and continue to collect the positive cash flows thru the years and ignore what the newbie investors were doing.

Coins. I could've sold my coins/currency last summer when I knew the economy was going to take a big hit. What to do with the profit ? I had no good alternatives knowing the stock market has been over valued. Never a good idea to put too many eggs into one basket.

I can still put food on the table, I have no looming foreclosures, my son's tuition will still be paid on time, my wife still enjoys her hobbies etc etc. In the end, for me, I choose to keep the majority of my coins/currency because I don't see a better place to put the money. I will continue to cull my collections and add to it. My Real Estate and Brokerage accts will continue to shrink along with everyone else's, but until I retire and need cash - I'm not going to sell anything. I have plenty of company. It's all very scary for sure, but again, what else would I do with the profits ? Blue chips stocks on sale !!!! ha ha. Stocks are based upon earnings, thanks to Jimmy Carter, I have a good feel for what long deep recessions feel like. Stocks will recover, but not for years. If they do, it'll just be a short halo effect. There is now nothing to drive our economy. No looming "Industrial Age","Information Age" or anything else. The tech bubble will never return in our lifetime. The rest of the world will never again buy all of our mortgage derivatives that allowed Americans to live off their bloated Real Estate, not in our lifetimes anyway. At this point my friends, the economy will have to revert back to the basics. Money earned the old fashioned way. Hard work. Our Hobby is and will remain to be one of the better places to place your money. Prices may come down, but on a relative basis to all other investments, you and I will be just fine in the long run.

After Baltimore...What is the Consensus?

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