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Another Baltimore Show Report and Market Opinion
Shortgapbob
Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭
I have read many of the Baltimore show reports and have read some conflicting reports on the show and on the state of the coin market. I thought I would share my experiences and views from the Whitman Show this weekend.
Show attendance was pretty decent in my opinion, better than the June convention (which is to be expected) but a bit below average for a Fall Baltimore show. This may be due to the present economy, the fact that there was a parade in downtown Baltimore on Saturday, or due to this being the fourth Baltimore show of the year. Also to consider when gauging local attendance is that there is now a coin show within an hour of Baltimore nearly every weekend. I tend to believe that there are a few too many coin shows out there at present.
However, there were plenty of collectors in attendance looking to add to their collections. Neat coins, key date pieces, early U.S. Type, and of course bullion were all selling. Many, though, have reduced there collecting budget, whether it is from $200 to $100 or from $20,000 to $10,000. Collectors have also become very price and value conscious, and price is generally everything in selling a coin at present. Collectors are passing on coins that they normally would have jumped at if the price doesn’t quite make sense. This price sensitivity spills over into the wholesale market, as dealers filling want lists must be much more price conscious. Dealers are also less likely to simply speculate on coins and add them to inventory without specific customers for them, as they seem somewhat uncertain of a coins current true market value.
The view among many seems to be that a price correction is due to occur (or is already occurring). This has led to an impasse of sorts over the past month or so among sellers who are unwilling to adjust prices downward and buyers who only feel comfortable purchasing coins at discounted levels. If coins don’t sell because of this impasse, it will lead (and already has) to cash flow problems among dealers who are heavy on inventory and in leveraged positions.
The good news in all of this is that collector interest in coins seems to remain strong. If dealers were willing to work on short profits or sell into the present market, then they sold plenty of coins. We had a busy show and sold lots of both inexpensive and expensive coins. Profit margins may not have been much to write home about, but there was plenty of business to be had. Those in good cash positions will see plenty of opportunity to buy at lower levels, then have inventory costed at a lower level. However, the coin market must first make it through the impasse between sellers who are unwilling to adjust prices downward and buyers who wish to buy at lower levels.
So, in general, the coin market is far from rosy. But there is still a strong collector base who wishes to purchase coins, even if it is at lower levels and on reduced budgets. The F.U.N. show in January will tell us a lot.
Show attendance was pretty decent in my opinion, better than the June convention (which is to be expected) but a bit below average for a Fall Baltimore show. This may be due to the present economy, the fact that there was a parade in downtown Baltimore on Saturday, or due to this being the fourth Baltimore show of the year. Also to consider when gauging local attendance is that there is now a coin show within an hour of Baltimore nearly every weekend. I tend to believe that there are a few too many coin shows out there at present.
However, there were plenty of collectors in attendance looking to add to their collections. Neat coins, key date pieces, early U.S. Type, and of course bullion were all selling. Many, though, have reduced there collecting budget, whether it is from $200 to $100 or from $20,000 to $10,000. Collectors have also become very price and value conscious, and price is generally everything in selling a coin at present. Collectors are passing on coins that they normally would have jumped at if the price doesn’t quite make sense. This price sensitivity spills over into the wholesale market, as dealers filling want lists must be much more price conscious. Dealers are also less likely to simply speculate on coins and add them to inventory without specific customers for them, as they seem somewhat uncertain of a coins current true market value.
The view among many seems to be that a price correction is due to occur (or is already occurring). This has led to an impasse of sorts over the past month or so among sellers who are unwilling to adjust prices downward and buyers who only feel comfortable purchasing coins at discounted levels. If coins don’t sell because of this impasse, it will lead (and already has) to cash flow problems among dealers who are heavy on inventory and in leveraged positions.
The good news in all of this is that collector interest in coins seems to remain strong. If dealers were willing to work on short profits or sell into the present market, then they sold plenty of coins. We had a busy show and sold lots of both inexpensive and expensive coins. Profit margins may not have been much to write home about, but there was plenty of business to be had. Those in good cash positions will see plenty of opportunity to buy at lower levels, then have inventory costed at a lower level. However, the coin market must first make it through the impasse between sellers who are unwilling to adjust prices downward and buyers who wish to buy at lower levels.
So, in general, the coin market is far from rosy. But there is still a strong collector base who wishes to purchase coins, even if it is at lower levels and on reduced budgets. The F.U.N. show in January will tell us a lot.
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." -- Aristotle
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
The Reeded Edge
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
The Reeded Edge
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Comments
As always, it was good to see you at the Baltimore show. Sorry your Terps got beat up so bad Saturday. I have been attending the Baltimore fall and spring shows since November, 1992. It's a great venue with lots of wonderful area restaurants. My take on the show was many of the dealers had a substantially reduced volume of sales. Dealers who specialize in certain areas were much more reluctant to make purchases than they were last year, or even last spring. There has been a lot of speculation about how the market is really doing. My take is wait until the Heritage mega-sale at FUN. If the prices realized are way down from the past few years you will know the coin market is in trouble.
So something is wrong with the hobby right now, maybe there are some dealers that post on here will offer their true opinions of the market and coins sales at Baltimore. Again JMHO.
Tense people in this hobby means tense dealings. It's a shame I couldn't find one NGC 70 slabbed or PCGS 70 slabbed Hawaii statehood quarter in clad cam. One or two dealers told me that they don't have time or money to deal in moderns. I totally understand this. But don't you think other than Gold, frankies,walkers and morgans they should be more Ase's and Statehood quarters.
Oh lastly I did see a dealer selling Morgan commons in Ngc and PCgs 65's with some nice toning at a great price of $130.00 a coin, he had a boxe of many 30. Not bad, I just don't need any at this time.
<< <i>As your opinion is well received. I totally disagree anything you have stated after 12:00pm yesterday afternoon. It was boring, not many dealers there and most we packing up. >>
What aisle were you in?
I think that some dealers who have been resistant to lower prices will have to do so in order to improve their cash flow.
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
The Reeded Edge
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)