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"Stocks are now down 50% since their October 2007 peak, and have retraced back to 1997 levels.
RYK
Posts: 35,801 ✭✭✭✭✭
In another thread, Sunnywood states:
"By some measures, stocks are now down 50% since their October 2007 peak, and have retraced back to 1997 levels. Have coin prices retraced back to 1997 levels like the S&P500? Absolutely not."
While some coins and series have had tremendous gains since 1997, many coins have had gains that were far more modest. I owned an 1890 quarter eagle that was purchased for me by my father in 1977 and sold by me around 2005 that rose in value about 40% over nearly 30 years, as an example. There are lots of collector coins that did not participate significantly in this great bull market run, and I am sure that we all can think of some of these.
Do you think that the coins that rose the most in value will also likely fall the most? Or will all coins generally suffer to the same degree?
"By some measures, stocks are now down 50% since their October 2007 peak, and have retraced back to 1997 levels. Have coin prices retraced back to 1997 levels like the S&P500? Absolutely not."
While some coins and series have had tremendous gains since 1997, many coins have had gains that were far more modest. I owned an 1890 quarter eagle that was purchased for me by my father in 1977 and sold by me around 2005 that rose in value about 40% over nearly 30 years, as an example. There are lots of collector coins that did not participate significantly in this great bull market run, and I am sure that we all can think of some of these.
Do you think that the coins that rose the most in value will also likely fall the most? Or will all coins generally suffer to the same degree?
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Comments
Please call when we get to those levels.
<< <i>In July 1997, a nice Higley copper in the Bowers auction sold for $10,450.
Please call when we get to those levels. >>
Better yet, please call ME when they get to those levels.
Many "big money" coins are going to take a hit as well. The truly rare pieces will hold their own but hyped rarity pieces will likely fall ... and they have a long way to fall.
I contend that it is now difficult to determine the value of most collector coins. The price guides don't function well in down markets.
Liquidity is now what is important. Are the coins you own able to garner serious cash offers these days?
<< <i>In July 1997, a nice Higley copper in the Bowers auction sold for $10,450. >>
Man, whatever I was doing in '97...I shoulda been buying colonials!
roadrunner
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I purchased over 40% of my Barber halves in 1997(from another collector) and the upgrades and regular price increases have been substantial. Imagine buying the 1905 in MS 67(pop 2) for 6800. Selling it in 2002 for $15,000, and the last sale was mid 20,000.
That increase is similar to almost all the keys and semi-keys in Gem or better.
In 1997, a very dull time for coins, I bought the 1885 lib nickel in PCGS 67 for $9,000. It sold in 2005 for $75,000. That coin will never return to the previous level.
But, generic lib nickels in MS 65, and Proof 65/66 have seen very little increase for 11 years. The next 11 will probably be the same.
There will be a retraction for many series, for dates in less than highest grades, but the rare and pq for grade coins will still be in demand.
I think the lesson for me, which has been reinforced elsewhere, is that the special dates for most widely collected series will always be special, and the boring dates will always be boring. If you are interested in financial performance, focus on the special dates within these series.
Also the market prior to 1995 was different from now in that the sight unseen market was highly promoted and had pumped and dumped coins during the 1989-1993 time frame.
edited, sad face because it would be much easier to collect my variety set at the older prices.
patience is the key. hobbies always die a very slow death when it
comes to price drops. sometimes it takes many years before bargain
basement prices become available again. right now we are only seeing
the odd ball ones taking 50 percent drops due to their fast run ups.
<< <i>It will take another year before we see the drops in coin prices.
patience is the key. hobbies always die a very slow death when it
comes to price drops. sometimes it takes many years before bargain
basement prices become available again. right now we are only seeing
the odd ball ones taking 50 percent drops due to their fast run ups. >>
I hope you are right, I also hope some collections with stuff I need open up.
<< <i>Most coins are lower now than than they were 20 years ago. >>
I sure wish the above statement was true about Mercury dimes. After photobucket lets me log on I will attach a photo of part of the Mercury dime price guide that was in Numismatic News on August 4 1987. Basically this was about the time I got out of collecting for about 10 years. Everything was sold and the hobby was in the back of the mind because of high pricing. What a stupid move.
Back then MS65 was the top of the line for most dealers that were selling in my area. If foresight would have been used one hell of a collection could have been put together for a relative small amount compared to todays pricing. Most of the coins that you see on the attached price guide in MS65FB are three to ten times more at this time. Oddly enough some of the prices in the MS65 section are spot on at this time. The straight MS65 pricing has taken almost 20 years to rebound. The MS65FB prices started coming back about five years ago and have just soared.
The later date coins, 40 thru 45, probably never will hit the 1987 prices that were showing for MS65 or MS65FB. Of course quite likely a bunch of the 65 coins that sold back then were todays MS67 coins. Looking at it that way the prices then and now are almost dead even over the past twenty years.
Ken
<< <i>It will take another year before we see the drops in coin prices.
patience is the key. hobbies always die a very slow death when it
comes to price drops. sometimes it takes many years before bargain
basement prices become available again. right now we are only seeing
the odd ball ones taking 50 percent drops due to their fast run ups. >>
It also depends on what type of show you are attending. If you go to a typical Sunday bourse a year from now you will probably see the same coins at the same prices as today. Many of these dealers simply never sell a coin at a loss so they just sit there forever. I recall one such dealer who bought most of his stock during the late-70's price run up. When the market crashed nothing changed at this table. The coins just sat there year after year until he died. For him, the Sunday coin shows were more social than business.
<< <i>Hey Ryk relax and take a deep breath this is not the end of the world. Jesus 3 threads and all doom and gloom concerning the economy,
all coming from someone 2 weeks ago who proudly mentioned he was in a recession proof industry. Some folks are worried about losing
their jobs and homes. Your concern is this silly hobby and how is going to be affected. >>
Dude, go tone some more coins for ebay and leave me alone.
<< <i>I see your still on here like 16 hours a day. Your kids must admire you. On second thought maybe they are better off
You have made quite a name for yourself on this forum. Keep it up.
<< <i>
<< <i>Hey Ryk relax and take a deep breath this is not the end of the world. Jesus 3 threads and all doom and gloom concerning the economy,
all coming from someone 2 weeks ago who proudly mentioned he was in a recession proof industry. Some folks are worried about losing
their jobs and homes. Your concern is this silly hobby and how is going to be affected. >>
Dude, go tone some more coins for ebay and leave me alone. >>
This is going to get good.
Hoard the keys.
I'd say it's true for real common coins like MS Morgans, MS Mercs and later date Walkers, commems, common type coins like Barber dimes, etc. But there are many areas of the market that are much higher, esp better bust, seated, Barber and gold. One also has to factor in the 1-2 point gradflation that has occurred on many coins. While it was impossible to get a Barber quarter or half to grade MS65 with a facial hairline, today that coin could go MS67 if the rest of it is dazzling. So the real answer is that common stuff has stayed common and the prices have not recovered, unless they happened to fit into a REGISTRY set fever model. 1802 halves in VF were not common in 1989 and are much higher today. Neither were bust halves in true gem. But 1944-D Merc dimes in MS66 back in 1989 will never recover those prices.
roadrunner
Also to the crap that started in this thread. Knock it OFF. A thread with good information finally and two people want to fight. Go to the testing forum to fight.
Ken