I think things might be slow right now at the West Point mint as they might have fewer things to be doing since not many blanks for bullion are left, or so they say. It seems if that is true they would have many people available to make a run of platinum coins after the site was deluged with orders from us.
Since the mint was planning to sell off all the remaining blanks, why not use them for the collector version instead of the low margin bullion ones?
Maybe they scrounged up all the plat blanks left and whalla, we get these higher sales numbers. Let's see what the new numbers are , I am guessing lower numbers too for the 1/4, but the question still remains are these just returns sent back or are they actually coins counted but never minted?
Actually, the number added to $25 sales was 23. The rest were from the 138 set sales.
The incremental adjustments to the $25 are not really relevant at this point.
In my opinion: Adding 23 at this point tells me that the $25 singles are done.
The singles numbers tend to be nice round numbers-- we saw the $10s adjusted to 2,500 singles. We'll likely see the $25s follow suit. Whether that number ends up at 2,000, or 2,100, or 2,150 I don't matters much.
Any open backorders will get filled from returns-- if there aren't enough returns, backorders will be canceled.
If the returns exceed the backorder demand, presumably sales will be reopened.
Thanks guys, I see the numbers. Looks like the 1/4 amount is higher, not lower.
"For the quarter ounce, the increase was smaller still, just 23 coins. The total stands at 2,138.
For the much-watched tenth ounce, the Mint actually reduced the total that has been sold by 38 coins to 2,500 even."
So there are more 1/4 in this report, not less. The 1/10 actually dropped instead of the 1/4.
Is this stuff unpredictable, or what?
Anyway looks like good news for the 1/10 as it is sold out and 38 coins less than last week. The 1/4 is high and not going down.
Also the 4 coin sets went up to 1,191 and moving higher, possibly to 2000. I am hoping for 1500 which will take two to three more weeks to sell off perhaps.
I think things might be slow right now at the West Point mint as they might have fewer things to be doing since not many blanks for bullion are left, or so they say. It seems if that is true they would have many people available to make a run of platinum coins after the site was deluged with orders from us.
I don't see any reason to think the Mint is continuing to make these things in small runs to fill existing orders. They've never done so in the past, and even if it were profitable for them to do so, they don't work like a normal business. Presumably there are more than 38 $25s on backorder; if the Mint was whipping out batches of 500, the backorders would be filled and we'd see the single $25 sales increase more than that.
I've more than made my opinion known on those sales numbers.
No significant deliveries of 1/4's have been made for two weeks (after going black) calls into question if there really is inventory available to fill those orders (1,500 coins).
These are the same 1,500 coins that blow out 1/4 ounce w production. I dont know why anyone would question a sub 1000 single coin option 1/4 ounce production, when they support a opinion of mintage between 06-w and 07-w levels. 06-w single coin issuance 687, 07-w issuance 1,228.
The other denoms reacting more "in-line" with expectations is not surprising, as everyone piled into 1/4's and then sat back and watched. If orders piled into those denoms, I would expect them to be skewed as well.
IMO, these numbers cant be trusted - and if i'm wrong, someone over at the USM fouled up big time with production. These coins, if in fact produced to 07 levels, will sit on the shelves forever.
Just my opinion, supported by previous trends and mintages. Time to sit back and see what happens.
Also the 4 coin sets went up to 1,191 and moving higher, possibly to 2000.
Agree that 4 coin set numbers hold the key at this point. I think that 2007 set sales were over 2700 (I have a note that sales were 2748 as of Jan. 8, 2008). Maybe someone can confirm what the 2007 set sale numbers were. Anyway, the number of 2008 sets will make a big difference to our final figures for 2008s.
I think things might be slow right now at the West Point mint as they might have fewer things to be doing since not many blanks for bullion are left, or so they say. It seems if that is true they would have many people available to make a run of platinum coins after the site was deluged with orders from us.
I don't see any reason to think the Mint is continuing to make these things in small runs to fill existing orders. They've never done so in the past, and even if it were profitable for them to do so, they don't work like a normal business.
Hmmm................I wonder if they'd have time to run about 20 of the Plat designs in 90% gold for me, while they're looking for things to do 'till the end of the year? Can Michael White help me?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
My 1/4 plat, which is still 'in process', still has my 'cancel' box up, the anticipated shipping dates seem to go deeper into November, almost daily. Ordered them on Oct 21st, #30220XXX. Starting to wonder if I'll even see a crappy one sent. Do any of you active gold/plat buyers care to share an opinion as to whether you think I get my plat or not, given they keep pushing the date back?? Thank you!
if i'm wrong, someone over at the USM fouled up big time with production. These coins, if in fact produced to 07 levels, will sit on the shelves forever.
The Mint doesn't produce based on what would make the best speculative flip, and it doesn't produce based on what the secondary market will support. Look at 2007 reverse proof numbers.
It was insane to make more than 10,000 of those sets when the platinum collector market is certainly much smaller than that, and yet they went full throttle on those.
While I'd be disappointed if 2008 $25s are higher than 2007 numbers, I can't fault the Mint for that... there were slightly more than 3,800 $25s sold in 2007, and that was with issue prices at $400 to $436, quite a bit higher than the $320 they are offered at now.
I doubt the Mint has any idea what the collector base is for these coins, or how severely it has been hurt by the rapid changes in bullion. If it does, it certainly doesn't care.
Do any of you active gold/plat buyers care to share an opinion as to whether you think I get my plat or not, given they keep pushing the date back?? Thank you!
I think you eventually will. If not, you can probably get what you need on the secondary market for close to issue price, maybe lower if you have one of those coupons.
I agree, although we were expecting a drop in the 1/4 and it went up. I can't see how that is possible with the returns unless they are filling existing backorders. Also I didn't mean to imply they make small batches but could have minted all the remaining blanks in both sizes at once. Whatever that amount was, say 1500 1/4 and 500 1/10 all at ounce.
There may be many that held out the 1/4 and didn't return them due to the 30 day window, so until the 30 days are up like we said earlier the numbers may not drop at all now.
The good news is the 1/10 seems finished and i think those are the right numbers. 2500 even plus the 4 coin sets, if 1500 then it ends at 4000, a very low number. Even if 2000 sets it ends at 4500 which is still low but not nearly as low at 2006.
For these coins to end in less than 2007 is good as this may be the second lowest mintage of the series for a long time. The 1/4 may still end higher than 2007 as 2138 plus 2000 sets is 4138 and this is over both 2006 and 2007.
Anyway it still seems these will end up higher than 2006 And so the flip for that chance appears to be gone.
It was insane to make more than 10,000 of those sets when the platinum collector market is certainly much smaller than that, and yet they went full throttle on those.
They didn't even make them "to demand". They just let 'er rip and cranked out the whole 30,000 at once. Argh.
I doubt the Mint has any idea what the collector base is for these coins
As I've stated before, there are 23 of us.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
As I recall, there was a HUGE profit margin built into those 07 Anniversary Sets.....much more than would be built into W Unc Sets.
You cant compare the two. Rediculous comparison.
Anniversary Sets generally draw HUGE demand, much more than supported by previous non "special" finish coins. That seems like a more reasonable assessment of why the USM produced so many PLAT Anniversary Sets.
Just explain the 1500 + orders on backorder for 1/4 w unc coins that havent been filled. When those customers actually get coins, then we can believe the number before us.
If anyone wants a backordered plat you may have to wait as long as for the 30 day window to expire, then another couple days for returns to arrive at the mint to be sure before canceling.
Just explain the 1500 + orders on backorder for 1/4 w unc coins that havent been filled. When those customers actually get coins, then we can believe the number before us.
What do you base the 1500+ number on?
Do you believe the reported sales figures include backorders? If so, why?
Sales numbers provided as of Tuesday afternoon, 10/21, just before the 1/4 went backorder was 615 coins.
The next reported sales number was 2,115 - a growth of 1,500 coins.
As far as I am aware, most customers including some I know personally that have orders placed but not received coins yet(some as many as 50+ coins each) - have not received any coins to date and have thier orders pushed day to day, now out to 11/18 or so.
There have been some receipts of single coins since then, however, the date of order and placement time has not been confirmed. It is expected that single and small orders can be filled with incoming returns, but that takes time to process.
As I recall, there was a HUGE profit margin built into those 07 Anniversary Sets.....much more than would be built into W Unc Sets. You cant compare the two. Rediculous comparison.
Anniversary Sets generally draw HUGE demand, much more than supported by previous non "special" finish coins. That seems like a more reasonable assessment of why the USM produced so many PLAT Anniversary Sets.
I'm not comparing anniversary sets to 2008 w uncirculateds, other than to show that the Mint regularly makes decisions that show it has no understanding or regard for the size of the collector base.
You seem to believe that it would be impossible for the 2008s to have mintage numbers at, or perhaps even above, 2007 levels.
I personally agree with that, although it looks like the $25s are going to give 2007 a run for the money. Unlike a lot of what the Mint does, I actually think it would not have been unreasonable for them to have produced these coins in quantities based on 2007 sales. I don't expect the final numbers will get us to 2007 numbers for the most part. The $10s are done, and the sales of $100 and $50 aren't still well below the 2006 w numbers so far.
<< <i><< What was platinum in February of this year? $1800? Today its at $800+ and dropping.
Anyone making this argument should never buy anything from the Mint. >>
Really now?
Does this comment include Clad Proof Sets?
Presidential Proofs?
Maybe Direct Ship Mint Rolls?
How about Silver Proof Sets? Can I buy those?
Or perhaps this means I should never buy "Platinum" Bullion from the US Mint at their inflated prices?
The comment applies to all Mint products.
The Mint charges a big premium over melt/actual value for pretty much every coin and product it sells.
The complaint you make about inflated prices for platinum may be your opinion, but it is not out of line compared to any Mint product. The current 4 coin set issue price on platinums amounts to about $1200/ounce when bullion is at about $800.
This is not only well within the ratio of other Mint products, it's actually less than what the same coins sold for in 2004 when melt was in the same range it is now.
The issue prices from 2004: 1oz: $1,345, 1/2: $735, 1/4: $410, 1/10: $210, set: $2,495
As for the other coins you listed:
The issue price of a 4 coin Presidential Proof Set: $14.95. Melt value? basically $0. Dollar value?: $4. Markup over base value: about 300%
The issue price of a Silver Eagle Unc or Proof Coin: $24.95 - 31.95. Melt value? about $10. Markup over melt: about 200%
Issue price of a 4 coin platinum set: $2220. Melt value at current spot $830/oz: $1535. Premium to melt: 45% Issue price of a 4 coin gold unc set: $2040. Melt value at current spot $750/oz: $1388. premium to melt: 47%
So if you're complaining about an issue price 50% higher than melt for platinums, yes, my comment is that you should avoid buying anything from the Mint, since almost anything they sell comes at a premium to melt much higher than that. >>
Except for the simple fact that I am not buying clad proofs sets, presidential proof sets or silver proof sets for their "bullion content".
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
Assumptions made that the USM take sales only to extent of inventory has never been confirmed. Many PLAT experts on this forum have stated that it is "probable" that orders are taken in excess of coins available, they have done ths on issues such as 20th Anniv Gold and Silver Sets.
"Unlike a lot of what the Mint does, I actually think it would not have been unreasonable for them to have produced these coins in quantities based on 2007 sales"
If you are in the camp that the entire production run of 08-w uncs would not have been completed at once, given the huge increase in metals prices ......
Even if the USM intended to produce at 07 levels,
The first run would have been a fraction of the total run,
After horrible first few weeks sales were recorded in July, and the ensuing returns, why would the USM produce more? That seems illogical.
Therefore, IMO, numbers south of 07 levels. How far south? That is the million dollar question.
Assumptions made that the USM take sales only to extent of inventory has never been confirmed. Many PLAT experts have stated that it is "probable" that orders are taken in excess of coins available, they have done ths on issues such as 20th Anniv Gold and Silver Sets. >>
Don't you find it odd though that if this was the case it would have also been done to the 1/10? The 1/10 now seems done at 2500 and finished, no more adjustments.
It seems the 1/4 should be done as well but the number went up.
I could see some kind of crazy error but from the way this played out it seems they should have made the change this week. Anyway I am happy with the 1/10 numbers, it will be the second lowest mintage coin and the others probably will be as well. The 2006 are most likely safe as the low.
<< <i>After horrible first few weeks sales were recorded in July, and the ensuing returns, why would the USM produce more? That seems illogical.
>>
I think the mint may have lost a lot of money on the plats this year and were desperate to make some of it back up. Perhaps they ordered more blanks at lower plat prices just before they went back up to try and recoup some of the losses.
it is interesting yesterday we had auto sales numbers and they were dreadful but the plat price is up today with the stock market. If the market keeps rising there is a chance the plat price follows and we get back to $1000 an ounce where the rest of the plats should sell out IMO.
Sales numbers provided as of Monday afternoon, 10/20, just before the 1/4 went backorder was 615 coins.
The next reported sales number was 2,115 - a growth of 1,500 coins.
As far as I am aware, most customers including some I know personally that have orders placed but not received coins yet(some as many as 50+ coins each) - have not received any coins to date and have thier orders pushed day to day, now out to 11/18 or so.
There have been some receipts of single coins since then, however, the date of order and placement time has not been confirmed. It is expected that single and small orders can be filled with incoming returns, but that takes time to process.
The first sales numbers reported sales as of October 20. The next sales number reported sales as of October 26.
I don't know when orders first started showing as backordered.
I do know that I placed an order on October 21 at 9:17am, and it was shipped on October 24.
I might be disappointed if 1500 were sold in the day or two after October 20 and the $10s went dark, but that doesn't seem a shockingly high number for a $320 coin with speculative interest. Anyway, if your use of 1500 as the backorder quantity is based on the difference between Oct. 20 and Oct. 26 sales figures, my order from October 21, which I received (nice coins), would suggest it's wrong to do so.
Again, I'm not saying that the 2,115 number couldn't be subject to adjustment. But the next report it creeped up, not down (even though the $10s were adjusted slightly down). $25 coins WERE sold after the 615 number came out. We are told by the people who's job it is to track that there were 1,500 sold. Also, if we are speculating on mistaken sales numbers, it seems equally likely that the 1st reported sales number, 615 may have been lower than actual, and the next reported sales of 2,115 simply included the revision upwards.
At some point, this back and forth is a little silly. You think the numbers for $25s are wrong, I'm open to that possibility but don't see any reason to believe that's the case. The actual numbers will be known in time. For now, I think it would be a mistake to speculate as if 2008 w $25 numbers will be lower than 2006 w $25 numbers.
Except for the simple fact that I am not buying clad proofs sets, presidential proof sets or silver proof sets for their "bullion content".
Exactly my point. Platinum collectors aren't buying platinum coins for their bullion content either; they never have been.
Platinum proofs and w-uncirculateds have ALWAYS been priced at a substantial premium to melt.
If you want to buy platinum at spot, or gold at spot, or silver at spot, you're better off not buying from the Mint. We're all buying coins, not bullion.
<< <i> Why does 2,500 look right? As I recall, that number jumped approx 500 after being "sold out".
I don't know of any more deliveries of those either.
>>
I am only guessing but it looks right as it was an even 500 numbers. That would probably be an order amount from the mint or an amount they still had left in blanks. It seems all the numbers end up in even numbers like that so I don't think it is hard for them to know how many they made.
Could they adjust these numbers? Sure, I don't believe it until five years have passed perhaps. But for now this is all we have as to what these coins will trade on.
Why does 2,500 look right? As I recall, that number jumped approx 500 after being "sold out".
It looks right because it's a nice round number.
The "facts" are the best information we have available to us, which is the sales numbers. You have to base your guess on something, and it's logical to base it on the best available information, understanding that the best available information could prove to be inaccurate. It's not perfect, but it's a lot better than basing your expectations on what you hope could be true, and then arguing that the "facts" must be wrong because they don't support your reality.
Look, maybe you're right. Maybe there were only 1,000 $25s sold and the reported figure of 2,115 is just some huge uncorrected mistake, recording orders as sales. And maybe the mistake was not caught or corrected, even though they tweaked the $10 sales downwards this week. And maybe only 38 additional individual $25 orders were placed since 10/26 numbers came out despite being available on backorder.
Shall we recall the 2006-W UNC $100 PLAT........ >>
I thought they understated the amount though, it wasn't a case where they added backorders to the total coins minted and then adjusted downward later. They initially claimed the 1 ounce was the lowest mintage of all 4 coins but later revised it higher over the 1/2 and 1/4. {I remember because I fell for it.]
Anyway looking at the 1/10 coins it now looks tied with 2006 so whatever they sell in the 4 coins sets will be what is over 2006 levels. Still that could be as low at 350 more sets perhaps, I still think that coin was a steal at the mint prices going forward regardless of 1500 sets or 2000 sets or even {gulp] 2500 sets.
2000 is a nice round number. Just as round as 2500.
I just interpret what I see differently than you do. You take the numbers as fact, I take them as one "input" to form my opinion, along with what also happened during those days all those sales were recorded. Things like "Were they SOLD OUT", "Were they on BACKORDER", "Has anyone else received any", "Are current BACKORDERED coins being pushed in a rolling two week delivery"
I base my opinion on a pool of data, not just one piece of data.
Later in 2007 they revised up the 1 ounce numbers from 500 to 1100 I think. The total shown now is 3068 or 1068 more as the final number.
Also on the 1/10 I should clarify it is already over 2006 by a couple hundred so it is only the 4 coin sets that will change things, but it is over not tied.
7over8 I have the exact mint stat photo in my records, what date are you using for yours? I can post the exact stat listing if you like, but it was clearly under according to December 29th 2006.
If they allow attachments here I would be happy to post it.
This may be a silly question...and I don't have prior year mintages in front of me...
But does the Mint usually produce 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 ounce coins in relatively orderly decreasing quantities...or do they produce more or less of each denom based mostly on demand...resulting in unpredictable spikes?
At work, I handle both financial and marketing projections...and unless I'm misunderstanding things here...if I was the Mint projecting sales for 2008 in an extremely volatile market, my entire run of 2008 UNCs would have looked something like this:
7over8 my attachment worked so you should be able to see what the numbers were back then. They never showed the numbers you have I am fairly certain.
We were expecting the one ounce to be the lowest mintage of all the coins but weeks after this stat came out they revised the one ounce upward to 1100. Anyway hard to see how they could understate it by over 50% but they did, I agree though it may take a few months past the end of sales for us to get final numbers that are really close.
i ordered another 1/4 plat on 10/21 at 3:26PM CST. i got my coin yesterday. based on theories on this thread, my order was close to the cutoff. anyone else order later than me and also get their coins?
<< <i>At work, I handle both financial and marketing projections...and unless I'm misunderstanding things here...if I was the Mint projecting sales for 2008 in an extremely volatile market, my entire run of 2008 UNCs would have looked something like this:
The one-ounce "W" plats typically have a higher mintage than the half ounce and quarter ounce coins, so that could potentially be the case for 2008 also.
Comments
The new platinum numbers were released by the Mint. Drum roll please.
1 oz: 393 (1584)
1/2 oz: 802 (1993)
1/4 oz: 2,138 (3329)
1/10 oz: 2,500 (adjusted downwards) (3691)
4 coin set: 1191
<< <i> from Numismatic Newslink
The new platinum numbers were released by the Mint. Drum roll please.
1 oz: 393 (1584)
1/2 oz: 802 (1993)
1/4 oz: 2,138 (3329)
1/10 oz: 2,500 (adjusted downwards) (3691)
4 coin set: 1191 >>
Last week 1/4oz. was 3168......only 161 added!!!!
Since the mint was planning to sell off all the remaining blanks, why not use them for the collector version instead of the low margin bullion ones?
Maybe they scrounged up all the plat blanks left and whalla, we get these higher sales numbers. Let's see what the new numbers are , I am guessing lower numbers too for the 1/4, but the question still remains are these just returns sent back or are they actually coins counted but never minted?
Actually, the number added to $25 sales was 23. The rest were from the 138 set sales.
The incremental adjustments to the $25 are not really relevant at this point.
In my opinion: Adding 23 at this point tells me that the $25 singles are done.
The singles numbers tend to be nice round numbers-- we saw the $10s adjusted to 2,500 singles. We'll likely see the $25s follow suit. Whether that number ends up at 2,000, or 2,100, or 2,150 I don't matters much.
Any open backorders will get filled from returns-- if there aren't enough returns, backorders will be canceled.
If the returns exceed the backorder demand, presumably sales will be reopened.
Further adjustments will only reflect set sales.
"For the quarter ounce, the increase was smaller still, just 23 coins. The total stands at 2,138.
For the much-watched tenth ounce, the Mint actually reduced the total that has been sold by 38 coins to 2,500 even."
So there are more 1/4 in this report, not less. The 1/10 actually dropped instead of the 1/4.
Is this stuff unpredictable, or what?
Anyway looks like good news for the 1/10 as it is sold out and 38 coins less than last week. The 1/4 is high and not going down.
Also the 4 coin sets went up to 1,191 and moving higher, possibly to 2000. I am hoping for 1500 which will take two to three more weeks to sell off perhaps.
I don't see any reason to think the Mint is continuing to make these things in small runs to fill existing orders. They've never done so in the past, and even if it were profitable for them to do so, they don't work like a normal business. Presumably there are more than 38 $25s on backorder; if the Mint was whipping out batches of 500, the backorders would be filled and we'd see the single $25 sales increase more than that.
I've more than made my opinion known on those sales numbers.
No significant deliveries of 1/4's have been made for two weeks (after going black) calls into question if there really is inventory available to fill those orders (1,500 coins).
These are the same 1,500 coins that blow out 1/4 ounce w production. I dont know why anyone would question a sub 1000 single coin option 1/4 ounce production, when they support a opinion of mintage between 06-w and 07-w levels. 06-w single coin issuance 687, 07-w issuance 1,228.
The other denoms reacting more "in-line" with expectations is not surprising, as everyone piled into 1/4's and then sat back and watched. If orders piled into those denoms, I would expect them to be skewed as well.
IMO, these numbers cant be trusted - and if i'm wrong, someone over at the USM fouled up big time with production. These coins, if in fact produced to 07 levels, will sit on the shelves forever.
Just my opinion, supported by previous trends and mintages. Time to sit back and see what happens.
Rgds
7over8
Agree that 4 coin set numbers hold the key at this point. I think that 2007 set sales were over 2700 (I have a note that sales were 2748 as of Jan. 8, 2008). Maybe someone can confirm what the 2007 set sale numbers were. Anyway, the number of 2008 sets will make a big difference to our final figures for 2008s.
I don't see any reason to think the Mint is continuing to make these things in small runs to fill existing orders. They've never done so in the past, and even if it were profitable for them to do so, they don't work like a normal business.
Hmmm................I wonder if they'd have time to run about 20 of the Plat designs in 90% gold for me, while they're looking for things to do 'till the end of the year? Can Michael White help me?
I knew it would happen.
The Mint doesn't produce based on what would make the best speculative flip, and it doesn't produce based on what the secondary market will support. Look at 2007 reverse proof numbers.
It was insane to make more than 10,000 of those sets when the platinum collector market is certainly much smaller than that, and yet they went full throttle on those.
While I'd be disappointed if 2008 $25s are higher than 2007 numbers, I can't fault the Mint for that... there were slightly more than 3,800 $25s sold in 2007, and that was with issue prices at $400 to $436, quite a bit higher than the $320 they are offered at now.
I doubt the Mint has any idea what the collector base is for these coins, or how severely it has been hurt by the rapid changes in bullion. If it does, it certainly doesn't care.
I think you eventually will. If not, you can probably get what you need on the secondary market for close to issue price, maybe lower if you have one of those coupons.
There may be many that held out the 1/4 and didn't return them due to the 30 day window, so until the 30 days are up like we said earlier the numbers may not drop at all now.
The good news is the 1/10 seems finished and i think those are the right numbers. 2500 even plus the 4 coin sets, if 1500 then it ends at 4000, a very low number. Even if 2000 sets it ends at 4500 which is still low but not nearly as low at 2006.
For these coins to end in less than 2007 is good as this may be the second lowest mintage of the series for a long time. The 1/4 may still end higher than 2007 as 2138 plus 2000 sets is 4138 and this is over both 2006 and 2007.
Anyway it still seems these will end up higher than 2006
And so the flip for that chance appears to be gone.
They didn't even make them "to demand". They just let 'er rip and cranked out the whole 30,000 at once. Argh.
I doubt the Mint has any idea what the collector base is for these coins
As I've stated before, there are 23 of us.
I knew it would happen.
You cant compare the two. Rediculous comparison.
Anniversary Sets generally draw HUGE demand, much more than supported by previous non "special" finish coins. That seems like a more reasonable assessment of why the USM produced so many PLAT Anniversary Sets.
Just explain the 1500 + orders on backorder for 1/4 w unc coins that havent been filled. When those customers actually get coins, then we can believe the number before us.
What do you base the 1500+ number on?
Do you believe the reported sales figures include backorders? If so, why?
The next reported sales number was 2,115 - a growth of 1,500 coins.
As far as I am aware, most customers including some I know personally that have orders placed but not received coins yet(some as many as 50+ coins each) - have not received any coins to date and have thier orders pushed day to day, now out to 11/18 or so.
There have been some receipts of single coins since then, however, the date of order and placement time has not been confirmed. It is expected that single and small orders can be filled with incoming returns, but that takes time to process.
Anniversary Sets generally draw HUGE demand, much more than supported by previous non "special" finish coins. That seems like a more reasonable assessment of why the USM produced so many PLAT Anniversary Sets.
I'm not comparing anniversary sets to 2008 w uncirculateds, other than to show that the Mint regularly makes decisions that show it has no understanding or regard for the size of the collector base.
You seem to believe that it would be impossible for the 2008s to have mintage numbers at, or perhaps even above, 2007 levels.
I personally agree with that, although it looks like the $25s are going to give 2007 a run for the money. Unlike a lot of what the Mint does, I actually think it would not have been unreasonable for them to have produced these coins in quantities based on 2007 sales. I don't expect the final numbers will get us to 2007 numbers for the most part. The $10s are done, and the sales of $100 and $50 aren't still well below the 2006 w numbers so far.
<< <i><< What was platinum in February of this year? $1800? Today its at $800+ and dropping.
Anyone making this argument should never buy anything from the Mint. >>
Really now?
Does this comment include Clad Proof Sets?
Presidential Proofs?
Maybe Direct Ship Mint Rolls?
How about Silver Proof Sets? Can I buy those?
Or perhaps this means I should never buy "Platinum" Bullion from the US Mint at their inflated prices?
The comment applies to all Mint products.
The Mint charges a big premium over melt/actual value for pretty much every coin and product it sells.
The complaint you make about inflated prices for platinum may be your opinion, but it is not out of line compared to any Mint product. The current 4 coin set issue price on platinums amounts to about $1200/ounce when bullion is at about $800.
This is not only well within the ratio of other Mint products, it's actually less than what the same coins sold for in 2004 when melt was in the same range it is now.
The issue prices from 2004: 1oz: $1,345, 1/2: $735, 1/4: $410, 1/10: $210, set: $2,495
As for the other coins you listed:
The issue price of a 4 coin Presidential Proof Set: $14.95. Melt value? basically $0. Dollar value?: $4. Markup over base value: about 300%
The issue price of a Silver Eagle Unc or Proof Coin: $24.95 - 31.95. Melt value? about $10. Markup over melt: about 200%
Issue price of a 4 coin platinum set: $2220. Melt value at current spot $830/oz: $1535. Premium to melt: 45%
Issue price of a 4 coin gold unc set: $2040. Melt value at current spot $750/oz: $1388. premium to melt: 47%
So if you're complaining about an issue price 50% higher than melt for platinums, yes, my comment is that you should avoid buying anything from the Mint, since almost anything they sell comes at a premium to melt much higher than that. >>
Except for the simple fact that I am not buying clad proofs sets, presidential proof sets or silver proof sets for their "bullion content".
The name is LEE!
Assumptions made that the USM take sales only to extent of inventory has never been confirmed. Many PLAT experts on this forum have stated that it is "probable" that orders are taken in excess of coins available, they have done ths on issues such as 20th Anniv Gold and Silver Sets.
If you are in the camp that the entire production run of 08-w uncs would not have been completed at once, given the huge increase in metals prices ......
Even if the USM intended to produce at 07 levels,
The first run would have been a fraction of the total run,
After horrible first few weeks sales were recorded in July, and the ensuing returns, why would the USM produce more? That seems illogical.
Therefore, IMO, numbers south of 07 levels. How far south? That is the million dollar question.
<< <i>As for sales including backorders, why not?
Assumptions made that the USM take sales only to extent of inventory has never been confirmed. Many PLAT experts have stated that it is "probable" that orders are taken in excess of coins available, they have done ths on issues such as 20th Anniv Gold and Silver Sets. >>
Don't you find it odd though that if this was the case it would have also been done to the 1/10? The 1/10 now seems done at 2500 and finished, no more adjustments.
It seems the 1/4 should be done as well but the number went up.
I could see some kind of crazy error but from the way this played out it seems they should have made the change this week. Anyway I am happy with the 1/10 numbers, it will be the second lowest mintage coin and the others probably will be as well. The 2006 are most likely safe as the low.
Why does 2,500 look right? As I recall, that number jumped approx 500 after being "sold out".
I don't know of any more deliveries of those either.
Is 500 coins on the tenth - the backed up orders to alleviate possible returns?
Do we have confirmation of those placing orders for tenths AFTER SELLOUT receiving coins?
<< <i>After horrible first few weeks sales were recorded in July, and the ensuing returns, why would the USM produce more? That seems illogical.
>>
I think the mint may have lost a lot of money on the plats this year and were desperate to make some of it back up. Perhaps they ordered more blanks at lower plat prices just before they went back up to try and recoup some of the losses.
it is interesting yesterday we had auto sales numbers and they were dreadful but the plat price is up today with the stock market. If the market keeps rising there is a chance the plat price follows and we get back to $1000 an ounce where the rest of the plats should sell out IMO.
The next reported sales number was 2,115 - a growth of 1,500 coins.
As far as I am aware, most customers including some I know personally that have orders placed but not received coins yet(some as many as 50+ coins each) - have not received any coins to date and have thier orders pushed day to day, now out to 11/18 or so.
There have been some receipts of single coins since then, however, the date of order and placement time has not been confirmed. It is expected that single and small orders can be filled with incoming returns, but that takes time to process.
The first sales numbers reported sales as of October 20. The next sales number reported sales as of October 26.
I don't know when orders first started showing as backordered.
I do know that I placed an order on October 21 at 9:17am, and it was shipped on October 24.
I might be disappointed if 1500 were sold in the day or two after October 20 and the $10s went dark, but that doesn't seem a shockingly high number for a $320 coin with speculative interest. Anyway, if your use of 1500 as the backorder quantity is based on the difference between Oct. 20 and Oct. 26 sales figures, my order from October 21, which I received (nice coins), would suggest it's wrong to do so.
Again, I'm not saying that the 2,115 number couldn't be subject to adjustment. But the next report it creeped up, not down (even though the $10s were adjusted slightly down). $25 coins WERE sold after the 615 number came out. We are told by the people who's job it is to track that there were 1,500 sold. Also, if we are speculating on mistaken sales numbers, it seems equally likely that the 1st reported sales number, 615 may have been lower than actual, and the next reported sales of 2,115 simply included the revision upwards.
At some point, this back and forth is a little silly. You think the numbers for $25s are wrong, I'm open to that possibility but don't see any reason to believe that's the case. The actual numbers will be known in time. For now, I think it would be a mistake to speculate as if 2008 w $25 numbers will be lower than 2006 w $25 numbers.
No worries, as we all have another 16 or so days left to mull over the data and make our decisions.
Exactly my point. Platinum collectors aren't buying platinum coins for their bullion content either; they never have been.
Platinum proofs and w-uncirculateds have ALWAYS been priced at a substantial premium to melt.
If you want to buy platinum at spot, or gold at spot, or silver at spot, you're better off not buying from the Mint. We're all buying coins, not bullion.
<< <i>
Why does 2,500 look right? As I recall, that number jumped approx 500 after being "sold out".
I don't know of any more deliveries of those either.
>>
I am only guessing but it looks right as it was an even 500 numbers. That would probably be an order amount from the mint or an amount they still had left in blanks. It seems all the numbers end up in even numbers like that so I don't think it is hard for them to know how many they made.
Could they adjust these numbers? Sure, I don't believe it until five years have passed perhaps. But for now this is all we have as to what these coins will trade on.
It was Tuesday afternoon, October 21, late in the day EST. I believe between 5-6pm EST - no earlier than that.
I recall I was at my son's football game and just looked at his schedule.
So NYC - your order was in before backorder status.
Shall we recall the 2006-W UNC $100 PLAT........
USM reported sales of 4100+ coins, actually 3100 at final tally.......
Sets reported as high in 2775 in 2006, to eventually come in at 2000 (just shy of that).
So there is history behind us of BAD USM sales numbers.....
It looks right because it's a nice round number.
The "facts" are the best information we have available to us, which is the sales numbers. You have to base your guess on something, and it's logical to base it on the best available information, understanding that the best available information could prove to be inaccurate. It's not perfect, but it's a lot better than basing your expectations on what you hope could be true, and then arguing that the "facts" must be wrong because they don't support your reality.
Look, maybe you're right. Maybe there were only 1,000 $25s sold and the reported figure of 2,115 is just some huge uncorrected mistake, recording orders as sales. And maybe the mistake was not caught or corrected, even though they tweaked the $10 sales downwards this week. And maybe only 38 additional individual $25 orders were placed since 10/26 numbers came out despite being available on backorder.
<< <i>As for numbers being mis-stated -
Shall we recall the 2006-W UNC $100 PLAT........ >>
I thought they understated the amount though, it wasn't a case where they added backorders to the total coins minted and then adjusted downward later. They initially claimed the 1 ounce was the lowest mintage of all 4 coins but later revised it higher over the 1/2 and 1/4. {I remember because I fell for it.]
Anyway looking at the 1/10 coins it now looks tied with 2006 so whatever they sell in the 4 coins sets will be what is over 2006 levels. Still that could be as low at 350 more sets perhaps, I still think that coin was a steal at the mint prices going forward regardless of 1500 sets or 2000 sets or even {gulp] 2500 sets.
2000 is a nice round number. Just as round as 2500.
I just interpret what I see differently than you do. You take the numbers as fact, I take them as one "input" to form my opinion, along with what also happened during those days all those sales were recorded. Things like "Were they SOLD OUT", "Were they on BACKORDER", "Has anyone else received any", "Are current BACKORDERED coins being pushed in a rolling two week delivery"
I base my opinion on a pool of data, not just one piece of data.
<< <i>Nope, it was overstated. >>
This is what I have in my records for December 29, 2006 mint stats
1 ounce 500
1/2 ounce 650
1/4 ounce 700
4 coin set 2000
All showing sold out status.
Later in 2007 they revised up the 1 ounce numbers from 500 to 1100 I think. The total shown now is 3068 or 1068 more as the final number.
Also on the 1/10 I should clarify it is already over 2006 by a couple hundred so it is only the 4 coin sets that will change things, but it is over not tied.
Later revised to 1100 single issue and 2000 sets.
Read some old threads. You'll see the data and the dispute raised by yours truly and EricJ on the side of the numbers being misstated and incorrect.
We were proven correct.
If they allow attachments here I would be happy to post it.
But does the Mint usually produce 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 ounce coins in relatively orderly decreasing quantities...or do they produce more or less of each denom based mostly on demand...resulting in unpredictable spikes?
Dont know if this helps........
ORDERS PLACED:
10/21/08 8:02 am I ordered (16) 1/10th oz unc. plats. #30217770.........order not filled, no longer avail.
10/22/08 8:09 am I ordered several 1/4 oz unc. plats. # xxxx2084 all orders show in progress ship date 11/19/08
1/10 - 4,000 (2,500 singles + 1,500 4-coin sets)
1/4 - 3,500 (2,000 singles + 1,500 4-coin sets)
1/2 - 2,500 (1,000 singles + 1,500 4-coin sets)
1 - 2,000 (500 singles + 1,500 4-coin sets)
Let's see if I'm close when the smoke ultimately clears...and if I am...any thoughts on these potential final mintages???
We were expecting the one ounce to be the lowest mintage of all the coins but weeks after this stat came out they revised the one ounce upward to 1100. Anyway hard to see how they could understate it by over 50% but they did, I agree though it may take a few months past the end of sales for us to get final numbers that are really close.
San Diego, CA
C
<< <i>At work, I handle both financial and marketing projections...and unless I'm misunderstanding things here...if I was the Mint projecting sales for 2008 in an extremely volatile market, my entire run of 2008 UNCs would have looked something like this:
1/10 - 4,000 (2,500 singles + 1,500 4-coin sets)
1/4 - 3,500 (2,000 singles + 1,500 4-coin sets)
1/2 - 2,500 (1,000 singles + 1,500 4-coin sets)
1 - 2,000 (500 singles + 1,500 4-coin sets)
Let's see if I'm close when the smoke ultimately clears...and if I am...any thoughts on these potential final mintages??? >>
This is my guess as there are lots more to sell I think:
1/10 - 4,500 (2,500 singles + 2000 4-coin sets)
1/4 - 4,100 (2,100 singles + 2000 4-coin sets)
1/2 - 3200 (1,200 singles + 2000 4-coin sets)
1 -3500 (1500 singles + 2000 4-coin sets)
This would put all 4 over 2006 levels but who knows where it ends up.
added. Thanks overdate i adjusted my one ounce, I agree.
The one-ounce "W" plats typically have a higher mintage than the half ounce and quarter ounce coins, so that could potentially be the case for 2008 also.
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