oil slides under $70/bbl, gold hangs around $750/oz...the euro is down to $1.28US...what will the co

Comments

• bluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭

  October 21, 2008 8:39PM

  I don't know you, but I'm sorry to hear about your health issues. I have known many people that have beaten that damn disease and I wish all the best to you and your family.
  BTW, indian quarter eagles will be a very nice collection to have, and they seem to have become a little more affordable lately, good luck on the set
  

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• MrEureka Posts: 24,419 ✭✭✭✭✭

  October 21, 2008 11:32PM

  I think that for the next couple of years, we'll be very lucky just to tread water. After that, I expect inflation to kick in with a vengeance. So if you believe I'm right and you're nimble enough to move in and out of the markets without incurring significant transaction costs, it makes sense to dump anything you're holding as an investment and then buy back in in a year or two. Otherwise, best to hold on through the downturn and look forward to better times ahead.

  Andy Lustig
  
  Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
  
  Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.

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• RedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭

  October 22, 2008 12:15AM

  One key barometer is the reported unemployment rate. As unemployment goes up, the collector coin market is likely to go down. The crash in silver might translate into very bad news for a small group of dealers caught with significant inventory. What can crash the coin market is a mass exodus of dealers that can no longer make a living. With tight credit and sliding prices, remaining dealers won't want to buy the inventory and it could get dumped at the market for whatever it will bring. As prices slide further more dealers go underwater and it feeds on itself.
  
  Who knows how bad it will get this cycle? If this is a bear market for coins, it is only the first inning. Very few dealers have been forced out of business. Only in hindsight will we be able to see if this is a minor correction or a bear market. It is already a confirmed bear market for silver bullion, with a 55% decline off the high. It is a time to be a collector, not an investor. If this turns out to be a bear market, those that buy aggressively on the first dip will lose the most money. Those that aggressively bought silver on the first dip from $20 to $18 have now lost about half their money. Those that aggressively bought gold on the first dip to $1030 from $930 have now lost about 20%. Same with stocks, same with real estate, those that burned all their dry powder on the first dip are way underwater. In bull markets, buying dips makes money. In a bear market, doing so might mean losing your shirt. Markets are mostly the same all over, governed by the same human factors of fear and greed.
  
  The near unanimous sentiment on the forum that key dates and early type will do well, when they have run up so much, means the odds of an all out crash are middling to high. At the top, no one thinks prices will go down. When prices have gone up like a rocketship, there is a lot of air underneath, and a chance that the rocket explodes into pieces.
  
  I hope your health improves. Coins and coin values are trivial matters compared to a person's health.
  

  Investment blog: gold, stocks and more

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• SmallEagle Posts: 736

  October 22, 2008 12:25AM

  
  
  << <i>The near unanimous sentiment on the forum that key dates and early type will do well, when they have run up so much, means the odds of an all out crash are middling to high. At the top, no one thinks prices will go down. When prices have gone up like a rocketship, there is a lot of air underneath, and a chance that the rocket explodes into pieces. >>
  
  
  
  There's a lot of wisdom here. Unfortunately.

  
  Who is John Galt?

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• Res Posts: 1,086

  October 22, 2008 12:45AM

  Oil/gas is low for now. Wait until the cartel cuts production. It's gonna be above 100 barrel in no time.

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• roadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭

  October 22, 2008 12:46AM

  I would agree with Mr. Eureka and table all of your collecting thoughts until you come out of your operation and recover. Good luck. Things will look much more clear then. Whatever you buy for your set in the immediate future will probably be cheaper in the coming years. The only thing that might hold up well in coindom will be "investor" coins...and that's far from a sure thing. Key dates will not keep up in the near future, there are just too many of them even if they are key. And way too many dealers and collectors speculated by putting multiples away for themselves. Those are now returning to market in quantity while the number of set collectors is dropping.
  
  Those that aggressively bought silver on the first dip from $20 to $18 have now lost about half their money.
  
  True for those that bought paper silver ONLY.
  
  The concept of buying on the dip is correct, but real silver in smaller format is trading at $15 depending on the type...still a 20% drop. ASE's are bringing far more as are other nation's onza's and maples. In the event you bought SLV at the peak, yeah, you lost 50%. Nice racket that SLV.
  
  roadrunner

  Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold

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• maibockaddict Posts: 1,759 ✭

  October 22, 2008 4:28AM

  Try buying gold and silver at those levels (physical). You can't. Those are paper trade levels. The gold coin portion of my collection ($10 and 20 libs) are at levels that are above where they were when gold was at $1000. Anything paper right now has been clobbered. Tangible assets are doing well. Coin collections, at least higher grade (XF and up) early type, are doing well. The lower grades look like they are tailing off as lower income people are slowing down purchases.
  
  Just my observations...

  You may call me Dave
  BHNC member # 184!
  
  http://www.busthalfaddict.com

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