Excellent Doug Winter blog today on the state of the rare coin market
RYK
Posts: 35,800 ✭✭✭✭✭
Link to blog
This is my personal favorite line:
I have read on a few dealers’ websites that they are still selling lots of rare coins and that they have people calling from out of the blue purchasing items from their inventory. I think this is a crock.
I only wish I had listened to Doug's advice more.
This is my personal favorite line:
I have read on a few dealers’ websites that they are still selling lots of rare coins and that they have people calling from out of the blue purchasing items from their inventory. I think this is a crock.
I only wish I had listened to Doug's advice more.
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Comments
Of all the gold coins, it would have to be that one that gets action. (*)
(*) Not that I sell coins, mind you. It's only a 'dammit' of empathy for others. Sort of. Oh, boy, i've got some issues.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
The market has no top!
You must believe!
I do disagree with the following:
"Hopefully you'll also listen to me when I tell you that selling anything now that isn't totally top quality might not be the best idea."
IMHO, it's better to sell second-rate material ASAP when the market turns south. It will only get worse, and very possibly for years.
Consider the real estate market. When it turned south, many "experts" expected the slump to last no more than a year or two. Considering the long run up, that struck me as - and proved to be - overly optimistic. The same could easily be said of the rare coin market. The only wild card is the raging bullion market, which could end up saving our collective hide. But for now, I would not want to fight the trend.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Sounds like I should have sold the whole shebang.
<< <i>-- "The last year or two was a good time to prune your collection and to get rid of mistakes, duplicates, widgets, etc." --
Sounds like I should have sold the whole shebang.
Good point! When you take out mistakes, duplicates, and widgets, what's left?
[edit] Singular.
<< <i>NO! NO! NO!
The market has no top!
You must believe!
i believe and will stretch for the best coins i can afford. i rest peacefully
at night knowing my coins will gain in value and always be a good
investment.
ooh. another shiny shiny. let me spend 1500 on it. even though i know
4 years ago it was 650 that does not bother me in the least!
score! another newp.
<< <i>
<< <i>NO! NO! NO!
The market has no top!
You must believe!
i believe and will stretch for the best coins i can afford. i rest peacefully
at night knowing my coins will gain in value and always be a good
investment.
ooh. another shiny shiny. let me spend 1500 on it. even though i know
4 years ago it was 650 that does not bother me in the least!
score! another newp. >>
PICTURES! T.T.I.W.W.P.
Oh, you were being cynical. Right.
("ooh another shiny shiny"
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
6. If prices do begin to drop and you have the assets available to allocate on coins, it might be a great time to buy. I heard lots of collectors complain that they’ve been priced out of their end of the market in the last few years by Nouveau Riche Accumulators. What if the majority of these NRA’s go away and you can suddenly afford to collect nice coins again?
Assuming I still have my job when these coins come back down to sane levels, anyway.
<< <i>I'm really hoping his final point is true:
6. If prices do begin to drop and you have the assets available to allocate on coins, it might be a great time to buy. I heard lots of collectors complain that they’ve been priced out of their end of the market in the last few years by Nouveau Riche Accumulators. What if the majority of these NRA’s go away and you can suddenly afford to collect nice coins again?
Assuming I still have my job when these coins come back down to sane levels, anyway. >>
Good point, I had better start spending less time here and more time working hard.
<< <i>I'm really hoping his final point is true:
6. If prices do begin to drop and you have the assets available to allocate on coins, it might be a great time to buy. I heard lots of collectors complain that they’ve been priced out of their end of the market in the last few years by Nouveau Riche Accumulators. What if the majority of these NRA’s go away and you can suddenly afford to collect nice coins again?
Assuming I still have my job when these coins come back down to sane levels, anyway. >>
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
Notice that Winter left an out in this market......the price of gold. I still believe gold will drag a good portion of the coin market along with it during the 2009-2012 time frame. I don't know the exact time or how well the coins will hold up. But gold will help once inflation hits us again much worse during round two. The tens of TRILLIONs being pumped into the world today will show up in asset prices in a couple of years. What happens in between is anyone's guess. I don't think gold can do well and leave nearly all coins in the dust. It's not done such a thing since we went fiat in 1971.
Winter:
As recently as a few weeks ago, I commented that the generic gold market was very weak and that premiums for $20 Libs and Saints were as low as at any time I could remember. You literally could not give away double eagles. Three weeks later and the world of generics is a very, very different place. As I write this, gold has a spot price of around $863 but Brilliant Uncirculated (MS60 to MS61) double eagles are worth between $1250 and $1300 each.
The “wild card” effect of the current economic chaos is that we may see a dramatic upward movement in gold, a wild run away from anything resembling stocks or bonds and even the return of rampant inflation. Any of these factors would have a significant impact on the rare coin market.
Ok, so much for numismatic gold being a poor play. What's out yesterday can be the "in" thing today.
I'm convinced the Winter's "wild card" will come to fruition.
roadrunner
Ok, so much for numismatic gold being a poor play. What's out yesterday can be the "in" thing today.
roadrunner >>
The herd mentality runs deep... when gold ran up to 800. the last go round everyone and his brother jumped on board bought Kruggerands and double eagles, when it crashed out gold languished again for many years until only just recently. You could go to any show and see guys with rolls of hacked up $20.'s sitting in their cases. For years. These coins are not rare, there's a ton of them out there, the only thing they have going for them is the appeal of bullion at the moment. I'm not talking about Libs in 64 and above and Saints in 65 and above... you guys know the kind of coins I mean. The current financial situation is considered by most to be far more dire than what we went thru in the 70's, but who knows, maybe they'll patch things up and stop the bleeding. When the pizza delivery guy starts expousing the virtue of gold the way the parking lot attendent did circa 2000 with internet stocks, you know it might be time to unload your gold. I don't think we've reached that point yet...
john
We should also remember that $20's in grades of 64 or higher did not "sleep" since the 1980 gold high of $875. In fact they went up considerably during the 1989-90 bull run with gold at much lower levels. MS65 Saints were well over $3000 at one point, something I didn't really track. Like most everything else at the time, they came back to earth with a thud. It's not surprising that they will be touted at various points during the current bull run as well. Let's not put all the blame on gold either. The rare coin market in general took an awful thumping in 1980-1982 and then from 1990-1996. Gold coins went along for the "downward" ride.
roadrunner
<< <i>I have read on a few dealers’ websites that they are still selling lots of rare coins and that they have people calling from out of the blue purchasing items from their inventory. I think this is a crock. >>
I received the following email from a dealer that typically pumps up "quality" . All has been well in la la land for this dealer recently. By the tone of the email, I'm getting a hint that things may be turning, quickly. Asking for payment in GOLD, versus cash, checks, or Credit Cards? Strange man, really, strange.
BUY COINS WITHOUT WRITING A CHECK
&
GET A 10% DISCOUNT!
Gold is stronger than ever and people are loading up via bars and coins. The
push into rare coins hasn't quite happened yet.
During this time, rare coins have remained stable even correcting a little.
It is our strong opinion that as economic issues settles down, all the cash that has been sitting on the sidelines will seek a place to go. Thus, we believe there will be a heavy push of people seeking to buy "hard assets". This opens the potential for significant immediate price increases in rare coins.
Why wait and follow the herd? Rare coins currently are not in the bullseye
of investors like gold is. The opportunity to us seems tremendous.
Trade us your duplicates, bullion, or generic gold for top dollar. You can upgrade to coins to with more potential or fill some holes. The best part of this deal: you can save 10% on most coins listed on our site!
TERMS:
GENERIC GOLD coins will be considered. ALL COINS MUST BE NON-SPOTTED.
We will quote approximate prices on generic coins and bullion-all subject to
change. ONLY when the coins are physically in our offices we will confirm a
price.
ALL Xxxxxx coins shipped out during this time will have return privileges of
48 hours with out exception.
These are good until Wed Oct. 15th
By the tone of the email, I'm getting a hint that things may be turning, quickly.
Are you DW in disguise? What are the odds that both of you are soooo wrong?
<< <i>You literally could not give away double eagles. >>
I'll have to let him know I'm available to take these off his hands any time during the future
Prices at the Goldberg pre-Long Beach sale were insane. $345,000 for a Fine+ 1796 no pole, nearly $700,000 for the finest known 1796 Liberty cap, etc etc etc.
The reason MS65 Saints fell from $3000 in 1990 to $750 a few years ago it that they were much commoner than previously believed. Same for MS65 Morgans (once bid at over $500). The longer the TPGs were around, the more common these coins became.
Actually, I've been buying the "tough" dates for my XF Charlotte set. I hope that over time I will be able to buy the more "common" dates at better prices. I'm not sure that will happen but that is the plan. I've found that original (I know that terms gets thrown around a ton) properly graded XF Charlotte half eagles have remained stable over the past 5+ years.
*My first comment was a lame attempt at humor. I bought this coin and could not be happier.
<< <i>Great I just purchased a coin from Doug.
Actually, I've been buying the "tough" dates for my XF Charlotte set. I hope that over time I will be able to buy the more "common" dates at better prices. I'm not sure that will happen but that is the plan. I've found that original (I know that terms gets thrown around a ton) properly graded XF Charlotte half eagles have remained stable over the past 5+ years.
*My first comment was a lame attempt at humor. I bought this coin and could not be happier.
I like yours very much. I had to hit a lower price point.
Your '38-C rocks, I love that coin.
<< <i>Ben, don't you own a 45 $5 1838-D?
Your '38-C rocks, I love that coin.
Yep, they are all in the gallery section of my website. Someday I will own the second variety of the '38C which has a cool die crack on the reverse. Unfortunately it has to wait until a few bills are paid.
Lucky for me there is only one variety of the '38D known.
<< <i>The reason MS65 Saints fell from $3000 in 1990 to $750 a few years ago it that they were much commoner than previously believed. >>
I sure don't remember MS65 Saints ever being anywhere that cheap after 1990.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>The reason MS65 Saints fell from $3000 in 1990 to $750 a few years ago it that they were much commoner than previously believed. >>
I sure don't remember MS65 Saints ever being anywhere that cheap after 1990. >>
They were. This example, and many more, sold at Heritage 2001 for $664.70.