Final thought 'vintage' vs modern
akuracy503
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As our modern (pujols, ichiro) cards become semi vintage when our kids are grown up...how will the prices be realized?
Will our vintage Nolan Ryan rc's, Hank Aaron's, Maris, Mantle, Mays be as revered?
Interesting thought as generations pass.
As they say nothing is forever...
Will our vintage Nolan Ryan rc's, Hank Aaron's, Maris, Mantle, Mays be as revered?
Interesting thought as generations pass.
As they say nothing is forever...
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So if I were to go to a card show today the vendors should bring more cash selling vintage than selling modern?
Or is it that our generation who knew the meaning of 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's and before have the money to buy this vintage stuff today.
I for one don't know the true meaning of wanting a Pre 1950's card, i'd rather have that Willie Mays.
probably an obvious assumption but vintage is being bought and sold within a small community of collectors relative to modern collectors...what happens when our generation pass and the kids of today grow up and have the money to buy...which will they buy...what prices will be realized at that point.
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There will always be a market for vintage material in the future, since baseball is a game where the history is never forgotten.
to believe that any cards post 1969, with the exception of a few dozen here and there, will ever retain their value
over the test of time.
I'm not trying to downplay modern cards, and I respect all collectors; I just prefer the days of old when there weren't as many players
to keep track of, and a 30-game win season was attainable for some pitchers.
Collecting cards during the 50's and 60's was fun because you just about knew every player on every team; the stars
hardly ever were traded until their waning years, if then.
We opened packs; smelled the cards to get a whiff of the gum; chewed the gum; and then looked at each and every card
with anticipation of the next card being a Mantle or home town hero.
The cards were about the player, not the hype of a rare 1/1 or game-worn jersey.
Though the only player that I've ever collected is Mickey Mantle, the values of most vintage cards have certainly held value and more over time.
Yeah, modern cards can be very lucrative, but will they hold their value or wind up in landfills?
Somehow, I find it hard to believe that Pujols, Ichiros, Griffey Jrs, or Arods will ever reach Aaron, Mantle, or Mays values when they
become vintage.
I paid a nickel for each of my 5 1952 Topps Mantles in 1958. What modern card will stand the test of time like that?
These are just my humble opinions and assessments; not meant to stir up the pot or to downplay anyone else's collecting preferences.
PoppaJ
looking for low grade t205's psa 1-2
I feel it will be a whole new ballgame come 20 - 30 years from now....
Except for the few rarities I'd say the demand for our vintage of today will drop into the future...then again we may see fewer being sold..
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<< <i>I just have a hard time believing that my nephews and son will grow up enjoying the same vintage names/cards....
I feel it will be a whole new ballgame come 20 - 30 years from now....
Except for the few rarities I'd say the demand for our vintage of today will drop into the future...then again we may see fewer being sold.. >>
I felt the same way when my sons were young. Would they be still be into modern day or would they revert to
vintage like dear old dad?
Well, they are all definitely into vintage now. They tease each other about the players they collected that
were supposed to be the HOFers of tomorrow. While dad was collecting Mantles, they were collecting
Jimmy Key rookies (not necessarily JK rookies, but you get the picture!).
As our kids mature and learn to appreciate history, they'll tend to change their ways, just as we did.
I always compare it to music choice .... while you're young you listen to modern music; when you're older, you listen to
golden oldies.
One thing I always did as a father was to let my sons collect whoever they wanted ... that's really what's important; that's
what the hobby is supposed to be about.
PoppaJ
The supply of 1950s cards was once huge, now it is much less. It will take far less demand to keep the prices high
I do think high grade copies of cards produced in the boom years will also increase as companies were very lax on quality control then and many cards are simply not going to be 10s or even 8s out of the pack.
As far as other cards I think Rube said it best.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
A: Enough for them to be worth no more than $1
http://cgi.ebay.com/2004-ALBERT-PUJOLS-STUDIO-SPIRIT-OF-THE-GAME-057-500_W0QQitemZ290257348765QQcmdZViewItem?_trksid=p3286.m20.l1116
<< <i>Q: How many Pujols cards have been numbered to 500?
A: Enough for them to be worth no more than $1 >>
I will note, $1 plus $3 shipping, does not equal $1, as 98% of the buyers will see that auction.
With modern cards it will be more of a hit and miss. Some issues numbered to a 1000 or more will go for $100's, while others as you have noted, will barely sell. This is somewhat true on vintage. Popular issues, regardless of print run, command good money. Some rare issues, do not.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
<< <i>Q: How many Pujols cards have been numbered to 500?
A: Enough for them to be worth no more than $1
http://cgi.ebay.com/2004-ALBERT-PUJOLS-STUDIO-SPIRIT-OF-THE-GAME-057-500_W0QQitemZ290257348765QQcmdZViewItem?_trksid=p3286.m20.l1116 >>
Difference I was refering to his rookies. I think the Bowman Chrome not only is numbered, but many went unredeemed.
We are already seeing an upswing on cards from the late 70s and early 80s this trend will continue deeper into the 80s and 90s as was pointed out. While many of these cards may never be worth hundreds of dollars even an increase to 10 to 50 dollars is a large increase.
<< <i>I just have a hard time believing that my nephews and son will grow up enjoying the same vintage names/cards....
I feel it will be a whole new ballgame come 20 - 30 years from now....
Except for the few rarities I'd say the demand for our vintage of today will drop into the future...then again we may see fewer being sold.. >>
Vintage cards are like vintage cars or whatever.. I don't think they'll ever lose their appeal. They're unique timeless designs, what they've been through over the years, more of a challenge to collect, from a far better time period then now... and on and on... I'm 27 years old and never saw the likes of Mickey Mantle, Joe Louis, Gordie Howe, Orr, Chamberlin etc.. I didn't even grow up around any sports enthusiasts either. I excelled in sports and took interest in the past greats. I think any kid that gets into collecting modern stuff at any point like I did at eight years old will start to notice the unique qualities/mystique of vintage cards sooner than later. Movies that come out here and there like Field of Dreams, The Rocket, Cobb, Cinderella Man.. etc.. bring these legends back to life and generate interest in collecting. Awards are named after the legends, banners are hanging with their retired numbers/names on them..
The vintage designs of heritage.. ginter.. are always the most popular sets to collect modern wise.
There's only so much the card companies can do today to keep the collectability going within the hobby. They've almost done everything but higher me
- Garret
<< <i>As a general collectible rule, when men are in their 40s, they go through a mid-life crisis, and revert to things they enjoyed as a kid or teen. >>
As an absolute rule, if someone does well at predicting future values they are already a multi-millionare. Why do you think the next generation want Griffey rookies and not 1980s video game systems?
The biggest difference is in 1955 there was no one thought baseball cards could ever be worth more than a few pennies. In 1988 everyone knew baseball cards had the potential to reach huge value
Further, isn't this sort of speculation already built into the current price?
<< <i>We are already seeing an upswing on cards from the late 70s and early 80s >>
Has the cost of a 1976 Nolan Ryan or 83 Boggs really had a huge upswing? What were these cards selling for 5, 10 and 15 years ago?
<< <i>Q: How many Pujols cards have been numbered to 500?
A: Enough for them to be worth no more than $1
http://cgi.ebay.com/2004-ALBERT-PUJOLS-STUDIO-SPIRIT-OF-THE-GAME-057-500_W0QQitemZ290257348765QQcmdZViewItem?_trksid=p3286.m20.l1116 >>
I think this is an excellent point. Well, at least it's what I was itching to say while I made my way through this thread. I dabble in modern cards mainly just out of boredom. It's always a disappointing experience for me. The "thrill" of pulling a special card out of a pack is completely non-existent now. I don't care when a card is serial numbered to 500 anymore because I know it's probably just a parallel to another 6 subsets of serial numbered cards and no one cares enough to keep up a high demand for all these cards.
There might be exceptions to this, like with rookie cards, but if Bowman, Bowman Chrome, Upper Deck, A&G et al all have serial numbered cards of players in their first year are these cards ever going to be considered rare or desireable? I just don't see 12-year-old kids plopping down $100 to buy a David Price rookie card. I'm sure older guys would - but 30 years from now when kids are in their 40s are they going to have any fond memories of pulling their favorite players out of packs or are they just going to remember that they couldn't afford any of this junk?
And I realize that I'm probably mistaken about the way modern cards are serial numbered and therefore I don't understand the appeal. But that's kind of my point. There are so many subsets, parallels, redemptions, refractors, sticker autos, autos, etc. that your casual collector can't keep it all straight. And if you're a good investor you don't invest in what you don't understand.
<< <i>
And I realize that I'm probably mistaken about the way modern cards are serial numbered and therefore I don't understand the appeal. But that's kind of my point. There are so many subsets, parallels, redemptions, refractors, sticker autos, autos, etc. that your casual collector can't keep it all straight. And if you're a good investor you don't invest in what you don't understand. >>
With that last sentence how many people that invested in mortage backed secruties really knew what they were buying inside of them?? Do you think someone really would have bought one if they knew that they were buying $800,000 worth of mortages from someone that only made $25,000 a year??
Collecting:
Brett Favre Master Set
Favre Ticket Stubs
Favre TD Reciever Autos
Football HOF Player/etc. Auto Set
Football HOF Rc's
If the "Hobby" part starts to fade then it will devolve into speculators buying and flipping cards and no one ever really holding onto them for memories. That is when the vintage market will die as people can't buy a pack for 50 bucks and flip the RCs and autos. To me it would take at least 50 years of continued hobbiests quitting before the market would start crash for vintage. I am only talking about post war vintage however as I don't think pre war could ever crash as they would be thought of more like fine art or antiques at that point.
Remember back in the 1950s most of the boys who collected baseball cards had never seen the players play. They heard games on the transistor radio, and if they were lucky enough to live near a stadium they could see the players. It was a big deal to even go a couple hundred miles back then, and for lots of kids that card was the only link to the player.
Also you got one or 2 or sometimes 3 cards of a player per season.
Now with cable and satellite you can see any game you want, and you can see the players all the time. Maybe it's still a big deal to go to a game but it was easier for me to go to Yankee Stadium (500 miles away) this summer than it was for my dad to go see the Pirates in the 1950s (100 miles away).
There are hundreds of cards of most stars each season.
Newer cards aren't the link to the player that the vintage cards were. I can see cards like signature cuts holding their value, since they have some autographs that you just can't get, and autographs again are a link to that person.
If I buy a 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth card, it doesn't link me to Ruth, because I never saw him play. But at one time, that card was somebody's link to Ruth. Somebody treasured that card, whether it's perfect because they kept in it a book to preserve it, or if it's trashed because it was in their pocket every day.
I buy vintage cards of the Pirates and Packers, the teams I liked then and now. I'll gladly buy a Clarke Hinkle card even though I never saw him play, because I learn and enjoy more of the Packers team history that I couldn't see back in 1935. I'll buy a Don Hutson or Max McGee for the same reason.
Sometimes I see things that pique my interest. I saw a movie about Dizzy Dean, liked the movie, and bought some of his cards. I read a book about the Duluth Eskimos and started collecting Ernie Nevers stuff. I think in the future, as people are exposed to sports history, some will want to buy a link to that history.
To answer the original question - I don't see how anybody can choose which card they "need" to buy to remember that player. Does it really matter if it's a 1998 topps finest superfractor psa 10, or could it be a 1998 bowman superfractor? Does it have to be numbered 1/1 to bring back the memory?
Without that "need" I think demand isn't as specialized and therefore not as strong. Without that demand, the value can't hold.
Just my opinion but I don't see how manufactured scarcity can possibly hold it's value.
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Jim makes all great points except for one, the transistor radio was invented in 1959 by some Japanese company. We did not really start seeing them here until the 60's.
With that said he is correct we heard them on the radio, and if lucky saw them on black and white TV.
Steve
<< <i>
<< <i>As a general collectible rule, when men are in their 40s, they go through a mid-life crisis, and revert to things they enjoyed as a kid or teen. >>
As an absolute rule, if someone does well at predicting future values they are already a multi-millionare. Why do you think the next generation want Griffey rookies and not 1980s video game systems?
The biggest difference is in 1955 there was no one thought baseball cards could ever be worth more than a few pennies. In 1988 everyone knew baseball cards had the potential to reach huge value
Further, isn't this sort of speculation already built into the current price? >>
I was not referring to the next generation. I do not think they will likely want either. I was referring to the guys my age in 10 years, we are not the next generation. The guys my age will definitely be wanting the old 80s game systems. They are already gaining steam now.
"The biggest difference is in 1955 there was no one thought baseball cards could ever be worth more than a few pennies. In 1988 everyone knew baseball cards had the potential to reach huge value."
I will agree to that, but I fail to see how that defers that a good share of men go through a mid-life crisis and make attempts to regain their youth, which is my comment your are responding to. Some will buy that 80s game system, some will go for a 1985 Corvette or like car....but due to sheer numbers, some will come back to sport cards.
"As an absolute rule, if someone does well at predicting future values they are already a multi-millionare." I imagine you mean millionaire, however I don't think that is an absolute rule. If you want to assume everyone is out to make money...then that would be a good rule.. But as you have likely seen on this board, that is not always the case.
Take the Sabo collector's collection or say my Saberhagen PSA collection. I understand completely that I would likely loose at least 50% if I tried to sell them on eBay. I am alright with that.
Also, when considering modern cards. Production dropped to 1/4 it was since 2000, compared to the late 80s early 90s. As the high end market (pack wise) continues to increase, print runs are continuing to drop. Am I saying everyone should invest in modern cards? Absolutely not. You should never invest in cards, unless it is something like a Mantle or Namath RC. Or better yet, invest in gold, as the economy continues to crash, gold will continue to rise.
However, I do think the assumption that all modern cards will be worthless or like, is completely wrong.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
My Podcast - Now FEATURED on iTunes
<< <i>I don't think that is an absolute rule. >>
It is most certainly is absolute. Most people aren't out to make money, because they know they are not better than the market and it is likely to be a losing proposition in some way
How much did those $400 cards sell for 10 years ago? Did you buy them then? If not was it really because you don't care about making money, or was it because you weren't able to predict that they would become so valuable?
<< <i>In a related note, we should see a boom in 80s cards in about 10 years from now. This is following the trend of pretty much every other collectible. >>
If the '80s were to boom I believe they would've already done so.
I don't want to bump up the nerd factor on these threads but look at what happened with Vintage Mint on Card Star Wars figures have done over the last 10 years....they boomed and then crashed...crashed back to their old prices and fewer in auction circulation...These will one day be forgotten for the most part...a new collectible toy will surface 20 years from now and take over as the king of vintage toys.
30 years from now....Sadly I think our vintage will be traded within a smaller community of die hards...while the heap of the pack will be concentrating their efforts on a different vintage..
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<< <i>
<< <i>In a related note, we should see a boom in 80s cards in about 10 years from now. This is following the trend of pretty much every other collectible. >>
If the '80s were to boom I believe they would've already done so.
I don't want to bump up the nerd factor on these threads but look at what happened with Vintage Mint on Card Star Wars figures have done over the last 10 years....they boomed and then crashed...crashed back to their old prices and fewer in auction circulation...These will one day be forgotten for the most part...a new collectible toy will surface 20 years from now and take over as the king of vintage toys.
30 years from now....Sadly I think our vintage will be traded within a smaller community of die hards...while the heap of the pack will be concentrating their efforts on a different vintage.. >>
I think you provided a great example that the cards will see a boom. The Star Wars craze is 10 years ahead, time wise late 70s to early 80s, then the baseball card craze, late 80s to early 90s. Also, from my major nerd days of running a comic shop, the comic/toy crowd is much younger then the card crowd. Average age likely around 25. Adding these factors means we are about 10-15 years from my "predicted" boom.
You should also note, I said boom in collectors, which may not mean a boom in price, as I noted. Using your example here, by the time the ROTJ figures came out, collecting them was well established and most collectors preferred them on card. As such, they experienced a much less to not noticeable boom when compared to the older figures, as many can be found in MOT. (I really wish I would have used a different word then boom). However, this does not mean there was no boom in the market.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
Imo being 35 Im thinking if and when a rise in say 77-85 will come is when our kids start collecting with us so i'd say 5-15 years we might see some more jumping in. Like mark when we reach 40-50 many will drag kids into it with them (I hope). I hope some will pass on some values of collecting and preservation. Also Id like to think the non steroid issue era will become a little more desirable though in this day in age one tends to think who cares. Im one that does ALOT. In the terms of value who knows but if history repeats itself the money will be in mint commons when i was 15 i still remember scouring 68-69 common-minor 5ks pullin them and paying a nickel. Years I think that are sleepers in terms of upside 77's without a doubt for various reasons, centered 79's, tough 25% of 81's, and 82's for the reason just a chocked full set with stars, ia, as, and ldrs cards with a pretty cool design.
The difference is back then we had few choices, now oh so many. After my dad sold off his mantle collection ive grown pretty fond of the 96 finest mantles and have a great start already to a complete run of 10's though the refractors are giving me some fits. Its my pet project to give to him for christmas.
Thats my 2cents
Gator
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Like others said (or should have said), you cant compare Modern (post 1970) cards to Vintage.
Vintage cards were worthless when first included with the original product or service.
All were played with, used and abused, and 99.5% destroyed over time (WWII paper drives, rubber bands, scrapbooks, bike spokes, flipping, doodle, closet cleaning, etc.).
Modern cards are not even true cards in the way Jefferson Burdick first described a card in the ACC. A true card ALWAYS was issued FREE with a product or service of some kind. Modern "cards" have a preperceived value even before the productless/gumless pack is opened, then 99.5% are kept in NRMT+/MINT condition and hoarded away. This will guarantee that in the future they will go the same route as the Beanie Baby, Collector Plate, Starting Lineup, Franklin Mint Collectors Edition garbage.
Supply and Demand!
A collectible needs to have a high % thrown away over time to become naturally rare. Not intentionally shortprinted, 1/1 hyped pseudo-rare limited edition stuff like most all collectibles today.
You only need to look at older collectibles that bring good $$...
ie. 1955-60s era Pez dispensers, Tootsie Toys and early Hot Wheels toy cars, Steiff Teddy Bears, Old Comics, Stamps, Early Barbies, 1930 era Halloween items, Theater Wall Movie Posters, Rock Posters, Beer Cans, etc. etc. naturally rare because most were Trashed!!!
example...
$20K Beer Can
(I used to live across the street from this brewery in SR)
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Here are just a few of the classics post 1980 that will always have a place in the history of baseball cards, and as new heros are identified, their classic cards will too!
1993 FINEST REFRACTORS
1994 SP DIE CUT AROD HOLOVIEW
1995 VLADIMIR GUERRERO BOWMANS BEST REFRACTOR
1998 DONRUSS CRUSADES
2001 ULTIMATE ICHIRO SUZUKI AUTO
2001 BOWMAN CHROME PUJOLS