Do you think an increase in Chinese counterfiets could undermine the US Coin market?
Barry
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What can be done to stop it?
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US collectors will have to adapt as well. Collect slabs or become a numismatist in your speciality.
The age of collecting raw US coins is over. Anything of value needs to be slabbed by a trusted TPG.
I haven't seen any indication that the Treasury Dept. could care less about stopping these counterfeits.
I really do not feel these fakes will make it into the slabs I have chosen.
As for the fake slabs now that is a different problem that I do not at this time have a answer for.
The slab copies get better with each year and the smaller slab companies would seem to have close to no chance against the onslaught. Take ANACS with three to five slightly different versions of their new holder during the past two years. Even dealers would be hard pressed to say which is a real ANACS holder and what is a fake, when they are changing every few months, and they are maybe 1% of slabs offered.
Personally, I've stopped buying certain kinds of coins online, and that list is getting longer with each new report (add early copper to the list, all kinds, slabbed and raw over a certain value). Soon the online barrier that won't mean much as a defense, when local American dealers get duped willingly or unwillingly by high quality fakes. When that moat is crossed in force, all heck breaks loose, and it isn't a good thing. Coin collecting could go down the same road that other hobbies have seen where 10%, 50% or even 90% of items offered for sale are fakes. What that does to prices is clear enough.
Reputable dealers will become more valued. Perhaps someone will come up with a way to document the chain of ownership on more coins, increasing confidence. Current collectors could get their coins "on record" now, with high-resolution photos, so that 10 years from now there would be certainty that the coins weren't made last week.
Actually, I think the fake slabs are a bigger concern than the fake coins. It's easier to spot a fake coin in an MS68 slab than it is to spot an genuine MS67 coin in an MS68 slab. Think of what would happen to the MS70/PR70 modern market if people could not be certain they weren't repackaged MS69s.
What could be done? Using a technology that would not only capture the image of a coin in detail, but also how the coin reacts to a particular light source. This could act as a fingerprint and even a counterfeit which might appear to be identical would not react to the light source the same way. Something like that might work for more valuable coins since it could not affordably be done for every coin.
And ebay could put a stop to allowing people to sell fakes (other than those "tribute" coins which would not fool even the most casual of numismatists). It's shameful that they let it go on. Take away the market, and the threat would be greatly diminished.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
I believe my prediction still holds true now, six months later.
peacockcoins
<< <i>I'd say the US coin market is now going through what the ancient coin market went through 40 years ago regarding high quality fakes. The ancient market survived but you must be much more of a numismatist to participate or you'll get burned.
US collectors will have to adapt as well. Collect slabs or become a numismatist in your speciality. >>
Exactly. You must become a numismatist and know your field.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'd say the US coin market is now going through what the ancient coin market went through 40 years ago regarding high quality fakes. The ancient market survived but you must be much more of a numismatist to participate or you'll get burned.
US collectors will have to adapt as well. Collect slabs or become a numismatist in your speciality. >>
Exactly. You must become a numismatist and know your field. >>
While I agree that is very important, most collectors do not have expert knowledge. And if that's a requirement to avoid being fooled by counterfeits, it will indeed affect the overall market.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
-Randy Newman
<< <i>Kranky is right about having to become an expert in the field that you collect. The problem the fakes cause is deterring new blood from entering the hobby. With our short attention spans, how many new collectors will be willing to invest the time/money/etc. into doing this? I think most will decide to pursue another hobby! >>
I don't think this is realistic. For the best fakes, less than 1% of current collectors have the expertise to authenticate, and I doubt it will ever get to more than 5%. That means that I believe 99% of current collectors buying on Ebay have a good chance to be fooled. There are fake coins, fake slabs, and possibly real coins in fake slabs at a better grade, how much time is a person supposed to spend on each transaction? How much fun is the hobby with that kind of suspicion on most transactions?
Look at other hobbies and what fakes have done to them. Tiffany, in their law suit, says 90% of the items sampled on Ebay with their trademark are fake. What happens to the coin hobby, if 90% of coins being offered are fakes? Or even 10%, or 25%? Right now it is more like 0.5% if that much, but the trickle looks like it is going to turn into a tidal wave soon enough.
I have yet to see any reasonable proposals that would make a big dent in the problem. Banning entire countries from selling, only means more middlemen that will get the fakes through back channels and resell. Buying certified, means more demand for fake slabs. Photo ID of slabs is a nice idea, but who pays for that, and what is to prevent the counterfeiters from sending in their fakes as legacy slabs to get into the photo database? How much time will it take to verify every legacy slab out there? How much money?