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Counting 2008W SAE 07 rev RAWs
Wighty44
Posts: 77
One persistent question on this coin forum is how many 2008 W SAE 07 rev. errors were actually produced. Although the Mint has offered their “guestimate” (~47K), the credibility of that number is questionable and some of us believe (for various reasons) the true count is lower.
It is reasonable to assume the Mint will not be making any more of these errors as they identified the cause and corrected it. This leaves two variables:
1) Did the Mint retrieve and destroy any of the error coins they produced?
2) How many raw error coins were shipped to customers?
We may never know if the mint retrieved any of the error coins before shipments began. One forum member (lope208) filed a FOIA request asking for the number of error coins that were actually shipped from the Memphis facility. It would be great if that request were actually (truthfully) answered.
Yet, one could attempt to work backwards to infer the number of raw error coins shipped as the whole of this population consists of coins that fall into three possible groups – coins being graded by TPGs, coins that have been graded, & raw coins that are being held (for whatever the reason).
Factually, we know how many of the 07 rev errors have been graded by the 3 major TPGs (PCGS, NGC, & ANACS) as they provide us their population reports by coin grade. These reports are periodically updated, which in turn will account for the coins that are somewhere within the grading process. That leaves the more nebulous group – raws coins being held.
Granted, it is virtually impossible to determine the number of raw coins being held by so many unknown owners. However, with a bit of cooperation, a general idea of this population can be made.
Based on forum comments, it is evident that many forum members have some of these raw coins. If they were willing to simply state how many raw 07 rev errors they owned, I would compile the data and report the results. I would also start a similar topic in the NGC forum.
So what will all this information yield? Certainly not the real Mint error shipping count, but just a bit more information that might provide some insight into the meaningfulness of the Mint’s 47K estimate.
I’m willing to do the work, if the forum members are willing to share the information…
It is reasonable to assume the Mint will not be making any more of these errors as they identified the cause and corrected it. This leaves two variables:
1) Did the Mint retrieve and destroy any of the error coins they produced?
2) How many raw error coins were shipped to customers?
We may never know if the mint retrieved any of the error coins before shipments began. One forum member (lope208) filed a FOIA request asking for the number of error coins that were actually shipped from the Memphis facility. It would be great if that request were actually (truthfully) answered.
Yet, one could attempt to work backwards to infer the number of raw error coins shipped as the whole of this population consists of coins that fall into three possible groups – coins being graded by TPGs, coins that have been graded, & raw coins that are being held (for whatever the reason).
Factually, we know how many of the 07 rev errors have been graded by the 3 major TPGs (PCGS, NGC, & ANACS) as they provide us their population reports by coin grade. These reports are periodically updated, which in turn will account for the coins that are somewhere within the grading process. That leaves the more nebulous group – raws coins being held.
Granted, it is virtually impossible to determine the number of raw coins being held by so many unknown owners. However, with a bit of cooperation, a general idea of this population can be made.
Based on forum comments, it is evident that many forum members have some of these raw coins. If they were willing to simply state how many raw 07 rev errors they owned, I would compile the data and report the results. I would also start a similar topic in the NGC forum.
So what will all this information yield? Certainly not the real Mint error shipping count, but just a bit more information that might provide some insight into the meaningfulness of the Mint’s 47K estimate.
I’m willing to do the work, if the forum members are willing to share the information…
0
Comments
Bobby Dees
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
I think because so many have reported "tampered-with" boxing that an assumption the Mint was able to keep some from being released is made. Of course, as the OP mentioned, it could simply be a lot of pipeline folks (truck drivers, warehouse folks, etc.) grabbed 'em while they could...
At least it's an attempt at some kind of count. But, in all likelihood, the 47,000 will remain the published number and prices should respond accordingly. Only time will tell, and perhaps the efforts of several on this forum (and I'm sure, others) will be successful in further defining the population.
As for me, I'm going conservative and guessing the eventual values will be somewhere in-between the 2006 Reverse Proof prices and the 95-W proof prices...with a range of 5.3 x Reverse proof prices (250,0000 Reverse proof population divided by 47,000 08 w/07 reverse population) and .64x the 95-W prices (30,000 divided by 47,000).
Dunno, but gotta guess somewhere so I can determine am I stupid to sell now, or wait for the price to climb into the low thousands...
<< <i>Hi, Bajjerfan.
I think because so many have reported "tampered-with" boxing that an assumption the Mint was able to keep some from being released is made. Of course, as the OP mentioned, it could simply be a lot of pipeline folks (truck drivers, warehouse folks, etc.) grabbed 'em while they could...
At least it's an attempt at some kind of count. But, in all likelihood, the 47,000 will remain the published number and prices should respond accordingly. Only time will tell, and perhaps the efforts of several on this forum (and I'm sure, others) will be successful in further defining the population.
As for me, I'm going conservative and guessing the eventual values will be somewhere in-between the 2006 Reverse Proof prices and the 95-W proof prices...with a range of 5.3 x Reverse proof prices (250,0000 Reverse proof population divided by 47,000 08 w/07 reverse population) and .64x the 95-W prices (30,000 divided by 47,000).
Dunno, but gotta guess somewhere so I can determine am I stupid to sell now, or wait for the price to climb into the low thousands... >>
I happened to get one of those packages, but I assumed that it was more a matter of poor packaging [5 little boxes and a little airbag in an oversized box] than it was rifling. People have reported this same situation with other issues [I think the 3 piece ASE set was one] in the past. As I said if it was a Mint directed search, the error coins would have simply been replaced. Are we led to believe that any coins lost to the pipeline folks should not be considered as part of those released by the Mint?
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
2 pcgs 69
2 ngc ms70
<< <i>3 ngc 69 er
2 pcgs 69
2 ngc ms70 >>
He is only trying to count the raw or ungraded coins.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Either way, I still feel using the 47,000 is the best way to plan for the eventual value of this coin. Until a better number comes along (perhaps through the efforts of this particular thread, perhaps not), I'm stuck with my earlier equation.
Of course, the other nagging issue I have with my equation: The 95-W proof was the only "W" proof coin that year (I think)...I'm a bit worried that because the 08' rev of 07 is just a variant the pricing won't be quite as strong. But I keep hoping (and I'm certainly not an expert!).
Thx,
<< <i>
<< <i>
I happened to get one of those packages, but I assumed that it was more a matter of poor packaging [5 little boxes and a little airbag in an oversized box] than it was rifling. People have reported this same situation with other issues [I think the 3 piece ASE set was one] in the past. As I said if it was a Mint directed search, the error coins would have simply been replaced. Are we led to believe that any coins lost to the pipeline folks should not be considered as part of those released by the Mint? >>
Saturday at the coin show I was at (100 or so tables) I saw 1 NGC-69 for sale and one sign with "we are buying these at $425". Did not see any others.
I see no reason to conclude that less than the stated 47,000 escaped especially since the US Mint had no idea that these had been produced in the first place until questioned by Coin World near the middle of April which was 6 weeks after their release. I also have no reason to conclude that the US Mint "retrieved" any of these from being shipped given the late notification of their existance and the resulting an slaught of orders from folks wanting a piece of that pie me included. The high number purchased by forum members on both sides of the street between mid April & early May could certainly have been the remaining stockpile at the Fulfillment Center based on a First in Last out basis.
I wish you luck in your quest to come up with a count but I think your number will come in way under the 47,000 mark as the PCGS and NGC forums do not give a good cross section of the folks that typically purchase these pieces on a regular basis. I'm sure we'd like to believe otherwise.
For me, add 3 raw's to the list.
The name is LEE!
61 raw
<< <i>Wighty44, I applaud you in your quest to derive a realistic tally for the number of 2008/07 ASE coins that the Mint truly minted and released. .... These numbers represent alot of effort and simply a trend at best. Years will be needed to determine an accurate count. ... >>
Thank you... While I recognize my this effort is not a short-time endeavor, I applaude the PGCS forum members who have particiapted.
In contrast, my post in the NGC coin forum has been met with a nay-sayer's attitude. Fortunately it is presently only one person who persistently criticizes those who feel this error has value. I believe he's made his point and should leave it at that...
<< <i>I have 46,000 raw. >>
Great - a comedian...
<< <i>THE LAST SHIPPMENT I GOT BACK IN MID MAY IT APPEARED THE MEMPHIS PEOPLE WENT THRU THE BOXES.....ALL THE COINS WERE LOOSE IN THEIR BOXES. IF THEY WEREN'T IN THEIR BOXES THEY WERE LYING LOOSE IN THE BOTTOM OF THE BOX. TWO OF THE COINS WERE NOT EVEN IN THEIR PLASTIC CAPSULES BUT WERE LYING LOOSE ON THE BOTTOM OF THE BOX. >>
I seriously doubt the shipments were "gone thru" as the Fulfillment Centers history with the packaging of SAE's is one big rant after another beginning in 2006 with the Anniversary Sets.
If the coins were prepackaged in one, two, three, four, five, ten, fifteen, twentyfive, fifty and hundred unit boxes as subscriptions, those would have been shipped first as mine were on 3/17/2008. This was a month prior to the mint even knowing these existed yet my shipment had opened boxes rattling around inside the shipping container. I hardly think these were "gone through".
If the coins had been gone through as some would suggest, I hardly expect that the Fulfillment Center would leave coins laying in the bottom of a shipping container anyway. IMO, all the opened SAE box/loose coin stories are simply poor packaging standards by the US Mint and the Fulfillment Center. Who knows, perhaps the coins are packaged in their blue boxes at order fulfillment time? Only a Fulfillment Employee knows for sure!
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
<< <i>Wighty44, I applaud you in your quest to derive a realistic tally for the number of 2008/07 ASE coins that the Mint truly minted and released. .... These numbers represent alot of effort and simply a trend at best. Years will be needed to determine an accurate count. ... >>
Thank you... While I recognize my this effort is not a short-time endeavor, I applaude the PGCS forum members who have particiapted.
In contrast, my post in the NGC coin forum has been met with a nay-sayer's attitude. Fortunately it is presently only one person who persistently criticizes those who feel this error has value. I believe he's made his point and should leave it at that...
Don't know if this is me, but I don't ever recall saying the error doesn't have value. BTW I have zero raw and 2 certified. It seems to me that the Mint has given some an unintended gift for which they should thankful, but now they want frosting on their cake too in terms of investment advice; that is holdem or foldem based on mintage numbers.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
<< <i> Don't know if this is me, but I don't ever recall saying the error doesn't have value. .... >>
No, I was not referring to anyone in the PGCS forums. If I had this type of concern with someone here, I would have discussed it with them via PM.
I only openly voiced the issue here because I was trying to show the vast difference between the two forums. ATS, the reception to my idea was met with a singular negative attitude. Whereas, in this forum some saw some merit in it - although it is not without certain inherent flaws.
It's an independant effort to see if anything meaningful comes of it. If not, then I alone have expended my time and effort. At least it's worth a try...
commoncents123, JrGMan2004, Coll3ctor (2), Dabigkahuna, BAJJERFAN, Boom, GRANDAM, newsman, cohodk, kklambo, seateddime, ajia, mirabela, Weather11am, keepdachange, gsa1fan, cone10
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Thanx Lope.
<< <i>I don't think you can get a decent count of the total population of raw rev 07s out there by counting replies in a thread. What percentage to you think board members hold? 1% 2% 3%? >>
I can't honestly say. I'll let the numbers fall out as they will. In the end, that value may suggest the answer your question.
I figured it's better to ask the question than to guess at an estimate - it can't hurt to try...
BTW, if any member is uncomfortable share their RAW count publically, feel feel to use a PM. And for the record, all member ID information I compile will be safeguarded. It is only used to ensure the RAW counts are not duplicated.
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CoinsAreFun Toned Silver Eagle Proof Album
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Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
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More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC
I had contemplated ordering a dozen, but I'm just an amateur. Small time. Rookie. Who knew? Since half what I ordered were the 07 reverse, I might have had me a windfall. Well, a collector's windfall anyway...
A Truth That's Told With Bad Intent
Beats All The Lies You Can Invent
Hey, that leads me to ask....would it be deceiving if I were to crack that out, put it in a capsule, and mint packaging and calling it raw? Besides messing up the pops even more, is there any issue with ethics, in regard to doing this and selling it (should I decide to) down the road? What say you?
Oh, so, in a direct answer, I have 2, both NGC 69's, one ER, one brown label.
I had 5 delivered to me a while ago on a subscription from the US Mint. Oh well.
Are any error coins still being shipping from the US Mint? Or has that stopped?
Box of 20
Here there has been a general support for this arduous task, whereas ATS it has been met with a negative attitude and virtual lack of support. Over the first day, 20 members here have identified 111 RAW 07 rev errors for my compilation effort. Yet, ATS a similar post has seen only 1 meaningful reply (0 RAW). The forum view/reply stats were: PGCS - Not Shown/39; NGC - 90/4
I'd like to thank the forum members here for your support. Notwithstanding the comedians, you are good people!
Immediately went and bought lottery ticket, no winner
Regards, John
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
Herb