<< <i>You're not really understanding what I'm getting at here. I'm lumping all high grade cards that sell for an insane premium (10x the previous grade or more) together, whether they are key rookies or commons. What I'm saying is that the high grade market as a whole has either hit its ceiling or is close to it. "Low pop" is a concept that is being used by sellers to create and artificial rarity. A PSA 9 Clemente RC sells for $36,000. A PSA 8 sells for $5,000. I'd guess a PSA 8.5 would sell for around $9,000 or so. Let's say hypothetically you have 10 Clemente RCs: 5 PSA 8s, 4 PSA 8.5s and 1 PSA 9. Taking the cards out of the slabs, you have an assortment of Clemente RCs in anywhere from NM-MT to MINT. Lay them out on a table and try to pick out the one that sells for $36,000. You probably would be able to do it, but you'll have to look closely and you'll start to realize that the one that would grade PSA 9 is not worth $20,000-$30,000 more to you than the others. But put them in slabs and create the registry and people start going nuts and paying ridiculous premiums for flips rather than cards.
The novelty of owning a 1/1 or the highest grade of a card will wear off as people grow tired of the registry and graded cards in general. Whether we're talking about key RCs or low pop 10s, it's simply impossible for these cards to maintain the artificial premiums that are placed on them. Clemente RCs and Mantle cards and Jordan cards and Manning cards will always be in demand, but that doesn't mean that people will always be throwing money at them because of the slab they're in. Simply put, the concepts of PSA 9, PSA 10 and Low Pop will not mean as much to people in the future as they do now. Condition will always be important, but people will not be willing to spend up to 20x more for a card because centering is 2 degrees better or the corners are sharp under 10x magnification. >>
Again, I am not disagreeing with your logic, whether a 9 is really worth 5 times the price of an 8. What you are not getting is that the people that have the budget to buy $50K cards don't care what you or I think. To them, it is like spending $50 or $200, and they have no desire in owning 1 of 100 psa 8's for their collection, they want 1 of 10 psa 9's in their collection. The high value cards will realize the greater profits, as always, regardless of what you or I think is logical. This was the case yesterday, today, and tomorrow...and always will be.
Take this scenario. To many kids, they don't understand paying $40 for a psa 10 fleer piazza, when they can own an ungraded version for $5. Based on my budget, I would rather own a BGS 9.5 for $40, than an ungraded version for $5. TO the kids it just isn't logical, and you know what...i don't care what the kids think. $30K for a psa 9 clemente rookie is PEANUTS to a multi-millionaire, and they have no desire for a 5K psa 8.
Those kind of collectors only follow suit with what the market is pushing. Right now it's pushing PSA 9s and 10s. 5 Years ago it was pushing Tiger RCs and Jordan PSA 10s. Before that it was pushing refractors and Elite cards. Before that it was pushing error cards. Before that it was pushing 5,000 ct lots of Kurt Stillwell and Pete Incaviglia RCs.
These whale collectors aren't making the market, they're following suit with what's happening. If a PSA 10 Dwight Stephenson RC is selling for $2,500 then of course a PSA 9 Unitas RC will sell for $30,000. These people are buying what they think they should. And when the market finally decides that PSA 9s are not worth 10x PSA 8s, then the whales will find whatever the next big thing is to sink their money into.
<< <i>Those kind of collectors only follow suit with what the market is pushing. Right now it's pushing PSA 9s and 10s. 5 Years ago it was pushing Tiger RCs and Jordan PSA 10s. Before that it was pushing refractors and Elite cards. Before that it was pushing error cards. Before that it was pushing 5,000 ct lots of Kurt Stillwell and Pete Incaviglia RCs. >>
I tend to disagree with you, and unless you can provide a chart of the year to year prices of psa 7,8,9,10 of each of the key cards i mentioned, we will continue to disagree.
I suggest that the key cards have always had an upswing market, and the higher the grade, and the scarcer the higher the grade, the greater the profit margins have been on each of the cards I proposed...
I tend to agree with both points being made, somewhat (how's that for riding the fence!) But, I happily pursue items such as CDsnuts describes, as it much better suits my budget.
<< <i>I tend to agree with both points being made, somewhat (how's that for riding the fence!) But, I happily pursue items such as CDsnuts describes, as it much better suits my budget. >>
I am not sure how someone can be on both sides of the fence on the issue if key cards in high grade will always be worth much more than the same card in lower grades, based on supply and demand....where supply is determined by the pop report of each grade. Obviously key cards of the legends will have the most broad demand.
...and the logic behind this is that the high end collectors have what appear to be bottomless pockets to the common collectors like most of us on this board.
where supply is determined by the pop report of each grade
Here's where I'm disagreeing with your logic. My argument is that the market will not care at all about the pop report or registry, therefore the number on the slab will only indicate the condition of the card without any outside influences (the registry, pop report, etc..) affecting the price. I'm saying that no one will care what the supply of PSA 9 Clemente RCs compared to the supply of PSA 8s is. They will just care that one is in slightly better condition than the other.
I'm on both sides of the issue because, while there may be a period of time where multi-gazillionaires will pay multi-gazillion multiples for a "perfect" grade, as soon as they smarten up per CDSNUTS' example (crack out 15 "8"s, 4 "9"s and 2 "10"s and easily tell the difference and agree that 2 are worth 20x the others), then the super-grades won't be so super-priced. Does that help you?
Here's where I'm disagreeing with your logic. .... I'm saying that no one will care what the supply of PSA 9 Clemente RCs compared to the supply of PSA 8s is. They will just care that one is in slightly better condition than the other. >>
I guess we can just continue to agree to disagree.... A psa 9 clemente will ALWAYS sell for MUCH more than an 8....and that difference will be based on both "supply and demand", and by the bottomless pockets of those that can afford to buy $50k cards. It will not be determined by those of us that quibble on message boards as to what is, and what is not logical.
Comments
<< <i>You're not really understanding what I'm getting at here. I'm lumping all high grade cards that sell for an insane premium (10x the previous grade or more) together, whether they are key rookies or commons. What I'm saying is that the high grade market as a whole has either hit its ceiling or is close to it. "Low pop" is a concept that is being used by sellers to create and artificial rarity. A PSA 9 Clemente RC sells for $36,000. A PSA 8 sells for $5,000. I'd guess a PSA 8.5 would sell for around $9,000 or so. Let's say hypothetically you have 10 Clemente RCs: 5 PSA 8s, 4 PSA 8.5s and 1 PSA 9. Taking the cards out of the slabs, you have an assortment of Clemente RCs in anywhere from NM-MT to MINT. Lay them out on a table and try to pick out the one that sells for $36,000. You probably would be able to do it, but you'll have to look closely and you'll start to realize that the one that would grade PSA 9 is not worth $20,000-$30,000 more to you than the others. But put them in slabs and create the registry and people start going nuts and paying ridiculous premiums for flips rather than cards.
The novelty of owning a 1/1 or the highest grade of a card will wear off as people grow tired of the registry and graded cards in general. Whether we're talking about key RCs or low pop 10s, it's simply impossible for these cards to maintain the artificial premiums that are placed on them. Clemente RCs and Mantle cards and Jordan cards and Manning cards will always be in demand, but that doesn't mean that people will always be throwing money at them because of the slab they're in. Simply put, the concepts of PSA 9, PSA 10 and Low Pop will not mean as much to people in the future as they do now. Condition will always be important, but people will not be willing to spend up to 20x more for a card because centering is 2 degrees better or the corners are sharp under 10x magnification. >>
Again, I am not disagreeing with your logic, whether a 9 is really worth 5 times the price of an 8. What you are not getting is that the people that have the budget to buy $50K cards don't care what you or I think. To them, it is like spending $50 or $200, and they have no desire in owning 1 of 100 psa 8's for their collection, they want 1 of 10 psa 9's in their collection. The high value cards will realize the greater profits, as always, regardless of what you or I think is logical. This was the case yesterday, today, and tomorrow...and always will be.
Take this scenario. To many kids, they don't understand paying $40 for a psa 10 fleer piazza, when they can own an ungraded version for $5. Based on my budget, I would rather own a BGS 9.5 for $40, than an ungraded version for $5. TO the kids it just isn't logical, and you know what...i don't care what the kids think. $30K for a psa 9 clemente rookie is PEANUTS to a multi-millionaire, and they have no desire for a 5K psa 8.
These whale collectors aren't making the market, they're following suit with what's happening. If a PSA 10 Dwight Stephenson RC is selling for $2,500 then of course a PSA 9 Unitas RC will sell for $30,000. These people are buying what they think they should. And when the market finally decides that PSA 9s are not worth 10x PSA 8s, then the whales will find whatever the next big thing is to sink their money into.
<< <i>Those kind of collectors only follow suit with what the market is pushing. Right now it's pushing PSA 9s and 10s. 5 Years ago it was pushing Tiger RCs and Jordan PSA 10s. Before that it was pushing refractors and Elite cards. Before that it was pushing error cards. Before that it was pushing 5,000 ct lots of Kurt Stillwell and Pete Incaviglia RCs. >>
I tend to disagree with you, and unless you can provide a chart of the year to year prices of psa 7,8,9,10 of each of the key cards i mentioned, we will continue to disagree.
I suggest that the key cards have always had an upswing market, and the higher the grade, and the scarcer the higher the grade, the greater the profit margins have been on each of the cards I proposed...
T206 cobb,johnson,cy,christy
33 ruth
34 gehrig
39 teddie/dimaggio/musial
48 leaf jackie
52 mantle/mays
54 aaron
55 clemente
55 koufax
57 frank robinson
<< <i>I tend to agree with both points being made, somewhat (how's that for riding the fence!) But, I happily pursue items such as CDsnuts describes, as it much better suits my budget. >>
I am not sure how someone can be on both sides of the fence on the issue if key cards in high grade will always be worth much more than the same card in lower grades, based on supply and demand....where supply is determined by the pop report of each grade. Obviously key cards of the legends will have the most broad demand.
...and the logic behind this is that the high end collectors have what appear to be bottomless pockets to the common collectors like most of us on this board.
Here's where I'm disagreeing with your logic. My argument is that the market will not care at all about the pop report or registry, therefore the number on the slab will only indicate the condition of the card without any outside influences (the registry, pop report, etc..) affecting the price. I'm saying that no one will care what the supply of PSA 9 Clemente RCs compared to the supply of PSA 8s is. They will just care that one is in slightly better condition than the other.
They display nice also.
mike
<< <i>Sweet card Mike! New one added to your stash? >>
no actually - I had the card in a 6 which I picked up raw.
I traded it for this 5 and a PSA 4 Rhoades which is one of the toughest cards in the set.
Thanx for asking tho.
mike
<< <i>
Here's where I'm disagreeing with your logic. .... I'm saying that no one will care what the supply of PSA 9 Clemente RCs compared to the supply of PSA 8s is. They will just care that one is in slightly better condition than the other. >>
I guess we can just continue to agree to disagree....
A psa 9 clemente will ALWAYS sell for MUCH more than an 8....and that difference will be based on both "supply and demand", and by the bottomless pockets of those that can afford to buy $50k cards. It will not be determined by those of us that quibble on message boards as to what is, and what is not logical.