Gold Fever!! . . . has the Rush started yet??
jimmymac
Posts: 505 ✭
with common Gold Libs and Saints (MS60-62) going for $1200+ and spot around $1000/oz, has the general population caught on yet?? - if not, what will it take for an all out Gold Rush to happen??
currently putting together a EF/AU/BU 18th & 19th Century Type Set; and CC Morgan Set
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
0
Comments
Web: www.tonyharmer.org
<< <i>Nope and there might not be a rush this time around since most people are so indebt they must pay all there bills they incured over the last several years and buy rising food, medical, and energy cost. Joe Public is broke. >>
According to this article, the Joe Blows are selling because it's "ridiculously high".
the 200billion "release" of obligation to create liquidity was absorbed in a day, now it's (DOW) back to even below that. yes there has been some news and financial reports coming in now and EOM that all point to the recession....
<< <i>Nope and there might not be a rush this time around since most people are so indebt they must pay all there bills they incured over the last several years and buy rising food, medical, and energy cost. Joe Public is broke. >>
agree. the speculative bubble may be very brief and short.
my neighbors have eyes on the old tables and chairs i plan to
throw away due to being old.. wanting them out of the trash...
let alone buying gold or silver.
it seems gold and silver have risen in price to a new trading level
but to see a 50% increase in the next years to 1500 may be asking
for something that will never occur.
but it is just my guess. i think silver and gold rose to these levels
because it was undervalued. now it is priced more appropriately for
these times.
<< <i>
<< <i>Nope and there might not be a rush this time around since most people are so indebt they must pay all there bills they incured over the last several years and buy rising food, medical, and energy cost. Joe Public is broke. >>
agree. the speculative bubble may be very brief and short.
my neighbors have eyes on the old tables and chairs i plan to
throw away due to being old.. wanting them out of the trash...
let alone buying gold or silver.
it seems gold and silver have risen in price to a new trading level
but to see a 50% increase in the next years to 1500 may be asking
for something that will never occur.
but it is just my guess. i think silver and gold rose to these levels
because it was undervalued. now it is priced more appropriately for
these times. >>
good point - the PM's have lingered for a long time and now are at levels dictated by the times - IMO, dont believe we will ever see $500 gold or $15 silver again - with China's & India's industrial base increasing daily, how can any commodities see lower prices ever again!!
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
<< <i>Nope and there might not be a rush this time around since most people are so indebt they must pay all there bills they incured over the last several years and buy rising food, medical, and energy cost. Joe Public is broke. >>
... and becoming financially desperate.
The US auto industry is now transitioning to much lower paid workers. They make about a third of what their predecessors made. They are not going to be able to afford the products they build, let alone have the luxury of speculating in precious metals.
After this November's elections, which I think will result in a Democratic sweep on the scale of 1932, look for much higher taxes on the very wealthy. That will put a damper on the bullion boom.
Owning a home in the Bay Area is murder.
Ren
<< <i>
Owning a home in the Bay Area is murder. >>
more like buying one in the past two years and using whatever the bank would "give"/lend you as equity and using that as your personal ATM....and refinancing every three months to squeeeze every every last $1k.....and floating credit cards.....that's more like suicide, now.
to think that Joe LunchBox is going to buy gold is silly...he's running to SELL whatever junk/jewelry he has
<< <i>I know I can't afford to stockpile the stuff.
Owning a home in the Bay Area is murder. >>
Whereabouts in the bay? I too am a bay-ite
<< <i>No, absolutely not. No one is talking about gold. I've searched all over this forum and can't find it.
Ziggy made a funny! I laughed!
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
The average Joe doesn't understand the basics of gold vs. the dollar and will be a seller to the end. The average Joe though typically has little to no PMs and, as previously mentioned, nothing to save right now anyway.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>Midge Elias watched prices rise for months until she finally gave in to the temptation and walked into a Manhattan coin shop with two mounted Liberty Walking gold pieces that she had once worn on long chains. She left with a check for $1,150. >>
What the heck is a Liberty Walking gold piece? If they are referring to a St Gauden's Double Eagle, then Midge got taken badly!
<< <i>I have been in a couple B&Ms lately and the activity in bullion was quite high. Saw a lot of folks selling on up days but also apparently familiar customers on the phone trying to locate this and that.
The average Joe doesn't understand the basics of gold vs. the dollar and will be a seller to the end. The average Joe though typically has little to no PMs and, as previously mentioned, nothing to save right now anyway. >>
not talking about the average Joe, but investors on Wall St who are tired of the downswing and continued fall of the US dollar - taking money out of stocks etc and putting it in bullion and rare coins - would seem a logical move, considering what's happening in the markets these days.
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
just curious as i have seen $1650 as a gold plateau and think silver should be over $25 at least.
oil as a commodity is bought and sold in world market with USD currency and is also affected by supply/demand
I don't know any Joe Publics who have bought gold. The investor world is totally different. At some point, Joe is gonna move some of
that 401K money into commodities.
roadrunner
<< <i>it's hard to compare gold to DOW (IMO) because the DOW components(?) change over the years. what compelling evidence was given for the ratios? and why aren't they there NOW?
just curious as i have seen $1650 as a gold plateau and think silver should be over $25 at least.
oil as a commodity is bought and sold in world market with USD currency and is also affected by supply/demand >>
If gold go as high as $1600/oz within the next 12 months, I'll put 100% of my 401K to GLD shares.
In my work department of around 16 individuals, 3 appear to be hurting despite having decent paying jobs for the area. One of these was involved in 'flipping' houses, and appears to have got caught in the end holding one that they cannot now afford (they were making good money for several years doing this). Another bought a house at the peak of the market... and now is having trouble making repairs that need to be done, along with being squeezed with medical bills. Another just had a new oversized house built, in which they just moved in at the height of the market.... and now cannot sell their old home. Three others want to sell their houses, but cannot for anywhere near what they have in them.... and on it goes. And this is just in my immediate work group in an area with a lower cost of living.....
I can only imagine what is taking place (or about to take place ) in the rest of the country....
<< <i>
agree. the speculative bubble may be very brief and short.
my neighbors have eyes on the old tables and chairs i plan to
throw away due to being old.. wanting them out of the trash...
let alone buying gold or silver.
it seems gold and silver have risen in price to a new trading level
but to see a 50% increase in the next years to 1500 may be asking
for something that will never occur.
but it is just my guess. i think silver and gold rose to these levels
because it was undervalued. now it is priced more appropriately for
these times. >>
Oh, I so much to want to save this quote and repost it in a year or so................ but that wouldn't be fair. No need to single any one person out as so many are going to be wrong. It will even look worse in two years.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>After this November's elections, which I think will result in a Democratic sweep on the scale of 1932, look for much higher taxes on the very wealthy. That will put a damper on the bullion boom. >>
With all due respect, I think you are in for quite a shock this coming November.
BTW, the Dems think that if you make 70K a year, then you are the very wealthy.
If the Dems do win, which a doubt very strongly, I'll simply defer my income for a few years.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>If gold go as high as $1600/oz within the next 12 months, I'll put 100% of my 401K to GLD shares. >>
It probably will, but that's the worst way to invest in it.
Read up on the threadzilla regarding gold, silver and world economics and you'll learn why.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Why wait until gold is up another 50% (and the Dow/S&P down a proportional amount) to make that move? $1600 gold is about a sure a bet as I can see in the financial world. The only other sure fire bets are how low long time favorites will fall to.
For those thinking that $1500 gold is almost unthinkable, you have to wonder how they got by the concept of a Dow greater than say 5000 in the mid-1990's. But invest they did all the way to 12,000.
The logic is always the same: stocks are an investment and gold is not. Amen brothers. If everyone believed in gold, the game would already be over. Call gold a mania if you will. But manias (and runaway markets) always go well past the point that common sense would dictate. When we do hit $1500, then we'll be around the point that common sense begins. From then on, it's a crap shoot how high it will go.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>No, absolutely not. No one is talking about gold. I've searched all over this forum and can't find it.
Ziggy made a funny! I laughed!
Ziggy made me laugh when I watched Lavern and Shirley a longtime ago. He was one ugly dude.
<< <i>
<< <i>If gold go as high as $1600/oz within the next 12 months, I'll put 100% of my 401K to GLD shares. >>
It probably will, but that's the worst way to invest in it.
Read up on the threadzilla regarding gold, silver and world economics and you'll learn why. >>
Can you just give us the "Readers Digest's condensed version?
I've, also, been thinking of buying GLD.
<< <i>
<< <i>
agree. the speculative bubble may be very brief and short.
my neighbors have eyes on the old tables and chairs i plan to
throw away due to being old.. wanting them out of the trash...
let alone buying gold or silver.
it seems gold and silver have risen in price to a new trading level
but to see a 50% increase in the next years to 1500 may be asking
for something that will never occur.
but it is just my guess. i think silver and gold rose to these levels
because it was undervalued. now it is priced more appropriately for
these times. >>
Oh, I so much to want to save this quote and repost it in a year or so................ but that wouldn't be fair. No need to single any one person out as so many are going to be wrong. It will even look worse in two years. >>
deadhorse, i know what you are thinking. it is easy for me to be wrong. at some point though metals will peak for the short term.
nothing can go up forever without finding a normal trading range.
if you have gold at 1200 for the next year mines will come online
to dig it out and sell it.
equilibrium has to be reached at some point in time.
what is that level i have no idea. i always was in the same boat as
ricko. i thought 1000 gold was a very reasonable price today to be
trading in.
everyone says gold was 800 and something in the 80s. well for one day right? the average price was something like 600ish?
well gold at 1000-1200 seems very reasonable as a trading range
for the short term future.. while 1800 seems to be fantasy land, to me, personally.
you have done well with the metals. i admit it. very well. eventually
you will sell when you wish to do something with the money.
do you have a personal goal to sell at?
The general public will not buy gold as long as it fluctuates wildly like a commodity and while there are too few market makers. If banks came in and reduced the spreads, the public might start buying.
Tyler
<< <i>Gold is still too illiquid relatively speaking to be bought and sold in physical form by the general public. Where else does a person buy and sell the stuff, a coin shop or pawnbroker? Gold can be easily bought and converted back into fiat, but it requires the good will of a coin shop broker who may (or may not) buy it from you if the owner finds himself in the mood. Generally, large operators are consistent in price, but small shops can fluctuate too much between the buy and sell (just read the thread on the buy prices quoted for Silver eagles). Secondly, few of us live right next door to a large bullion broker. The market makers can suck too much spread in the buy sell process making the transaction a losing propostion for short term holders.
The general public will not buy gold as long as it fluctuates wildly like a commodity and while there are too few market makers. If banks came in and reduced the spreads, the public might start buying.
Tyler >>
Buyers such as coin shops tend to "read" the sellers of bullion and offer as little as they can get away with. I've been in shops many times when ma & pa bumpkin came in and sold way, way too cheap.
to dig it out and sell it.
What mines are coming on line with any significant production? The answer is none. And since it takes up to 10 yrs to bring a mine in (assuming it ever becomes a real producer) don't expect gold supply to be anything but in deficit for years to come. This is the net result of the gold miners playing the gold carry trade in the 1990's. Little to no money was put into the miner's infrastructure. And why they should they when they were making easy money on interest rate spreads all the while hedging their forward production. The biggest miners of the past 15 years were the central bankers after having dumped up to 15,000 tons on the market (lol)....and their "mining" operations are essentially shutdown now.
I've seen some local shops buy or sell $1 MILL in gold at one shot and make 1% on the transaction. So much for illiquidity and high margins.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>No, absolutely not. No one is talking about gold. I've searched all over this forum and can't find it.
Ziggy made a funny! I laughed!
Ziggy made me laugh when I watched Lavern and Shirley a longtime ago. He was one ugly dude.
I think you mean "Squiggy" form Laverne and Shirley, Yaha.
<< <i>what will it take for an all out Gold Rush to happen?? >>
Cramer
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
<< <i> if you have gold at 1200 for the next year mines will come online
to dig it out and sell it.
What mines are coming on line with any significant production? The answer is none. And since it takes up to 10 yrs to bring a mine in (assuming it ever becomes a real producer) don't expect gold supply to be anything but in deficit for years to come. This is the net result of the gold miners playing the gold carry trade in the 1990's. Little to no money was put into the miner's infrastructure. And why they should they when they were making easy money on interest rate spreads all the while hedging their forward production. The biggest miners of the past 15 years were the central bankers after having dumped up to 15,000 tons on the market (lol)....and their "mining" operations are essentially shutdown now.
I've seen some local shops buy or sell $1 MILL in gold at one shot and make 1% on the transaction. So much for illiquidity and high margins.
roadrunner >>
roadrunner, even a quick google shows many mines claiming things like this:
High River has brought two new open-pit gold mines into production this year, the Taparko-Bouroum Gold Mine in Burkina Faso (July) and the Berezitovy Gold Mine in Russia (August). Annual gold production from Taparko-Bouroum is planned at 100,000 ounces for the first 12 months increasing to over 140,000 ounces in the third year of operation, and annual production from Berezitovy is expected to exceed 100,000 ounces. Combined with gold production from High River's 85%-owned Russian subsidiary, OJSC Buryatzoloto, High River's attributable unhedged gold production is expected to be approximately 175,000 ounces in 2007, and to exceed 300,000 ounces in 2008. In addition, the Company has two advanced exploration projects, the Bissa Gold Project in Burkina Faso and the world-class Prognoz Silver Project in Russia.
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does it not make sense that 100 dollar oil will result in other drilling
techniques becoming viable? well the same must go for gold/silver
mining companies. 1000 dollar gold is quite an incentive for new mines
to open.
i am just going on common sense and what i read online.