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It's a waste of time bidding early on TT
GFourDriver
Posts: 2,366 ✭
TT always places the opening bid well below the buy back price then waits until about 7pm before the buyback price kicks in. Why don't they just open bids at the sellers buy back price and be done with it?
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Wondercoin
For example: I placed a reasonable bid at say...4pm and, although TT accepted the bid, it wasn't the high bid due to a previous reserve. Since my bid wasn't the high bid, the system ignored my bid but still took an hour to move up to a price over my bid. In this case, there were 6 equivelent coins up for auction so I waited an hour until the price surpassed my bid, and moved to the next coin. Same thing happened again. So I waited until 9pm and placed my bid on the coin with the lowest reserve. The rest of the day was a waste of my time. All in all only 2 of the 6 coins actually sold.
Snapdragon
I will never bid on TT again before 9PM!
Snapdragon
<< <i>Actually make that the LAST hour. Teletrade sellers are allowed to bid up to the last hour and Teletrade considers that the same as a buyer's reserve on eBay. That's why you can see the same coin over and over hitting moon money before the end but somehow still available the next week. >>
Absolutely not true. You misunderstand how TT handles the buybacks (reserves). They are eased in over the auction until around 3:30PM PST when they are fully priced in. If you bid after that time and the bid goes up, it is another real buying bidder going against you. Also other bidders are processed in the same way, except to the very end of an auction. TT leap-frogs the bids increment-by-increment. If the bid is $500 at 2 minutes before the close and two competing bidders try to sort-of snipe the lot with $1000 and $1100 bids, they will go up and it might appear to the $1000 max bid guy that he is winning right before the lights go out at 07:00:59 PM PST. But that isn't the case and the other bidder will win it at $1050.
I have sold many times on TT. A seller is absolutely forbidden to bid on his own lots. He can enter a buyback/reserve up until 1 hour prior to the open of the auction. As was pointed out though, you can get screwed if a bidder puts in a max prior to the buyback if that is higher than the buyback. Happened to me once and the lot went for far below what my buyback would have been.
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WC has it right about locking up a bid early. But that really only works if the coin is not owned by the house and has a fair reserve.
House owned coins seem to be the ones that always realize 5-10% over current trading levels. You can never lock up a trading level on TT gold coins as a rule. If say a $20 Saint in MS64 was usually trading at $1200-1250, you will usually see that coin having a reserve set at $1250, and hence needing another increment to beat it. The house is guaranteed to win should the coin sell. If the house owns the above coin, then obviously all jumps in bidding increments toward the reserve are just for "play."
Using the above coin, a good increment to lock in would be at $1100.
With the 10% seller's juice, that's $1210, which is right in the desireable trading range. The next bidder will have to pay $1260 or more which is unlikely to happen....unless the house owns the coin and already has the $1100 bid locked up (or the one after it).
The coin is unlikely to sell for a bid of $1050, but $1100 is very realistic. Locking it in early on a truly consigned coin sometimes works.
roadrunner
What RR said.
But, again, IMHO, it is not terribly relevant what "the house" is doing (assuming they are doing it). The key is to enter the max bid YOU are happy owning the coin at (just as RR points out $1100 in the example). On many of the coins I consign to TT, there is ample price history on similar coins selling. So, as I mentioned, bidding early actually can (and does) save you money. I generally have a handful of coins per auction where someone has beat me to the level I want to reserve a coin at and where if I sell at one increment below that level I am a bit under where I want to be. But, as I mentioned, in virtually every case, I do reserve the coin 1 increment lower to respect the early bid and to figure a "sold bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush".
My reserves must be completed 1 hour before the auction begins - not 1 hour prior to it ending.
Wondercoin
RR Teletrade hasn't had 10% juice for a while now. They are at 12% juice.
<< <i>GFD- Actually, quite the contrary. Let's say you bid 5 days early and place a max bid of $1000 on a coin you would be happy to own at $1,000 hammer. Now, a couple days before the auction, let's say I come around and want to reserve a coin at $1,000 as the min. amount I would accept for my coin. Well - I can't because YOU locked in that level with your prior max bid. So, about 98% of the time (if not higher), I will accept $975 as my reserve on the coin in this particular case. The result - you captured a coin at your level that you would have had to pay more for had you waited to bid during the auction. >>
I have to confess I don't understand this logic. If a bidder places a max bid of $1000 and the reserve is $975, and no one else bids, the bidder gets the coin for $975. If the coin had no reserve and the next highest bid was $950, the bidder gets the coin for $975. Whether or not the bidder locks in the bid early or not, with a max bid of $1000 and a reserve of $975, the bidder might get the coin at $975, $1000 or some number in between, but won't get it if it hammers over $1000. So does your last sentence say the bidder would save $25 by locking in a high bid? Or is there something I'm missing?
I don't understand this one either:
<< <i>I have sold many times on TT. A seller is absolutely forbidden to bid on his own lots. He can enter a buyback/reserve up until 1 hour prior to the open of the auction. As was pointed out though, you can get screwed if a bidder puts in a max prior to the buyback if that is higher than the buyback. Happened to me once and the lot went for far below what my buyback would have been. >>
OK, let me try this one out. Bidder puts in a max prior to the buyback that is higher than the buyback. Let's say bidder's max is $2,000 and buyback is $1,000. Wouldn't the lot sell for $1,000 which is the amount of the reserve? And if a lot sells "well below what my buyback (i.e. reserve) would have been", why didn't you enter a reserve on the lot? Let's say in that situation, your buyback would have been $1,000 but the bidder has already entered a max bid of $2,000. Can't you still enter your reserve at $1,000? Or am I missing something?
Please note, I'm not being critical, I just am not understanding the facts of these situations, and I have had a lot of questions about TT bidding and I'm trying to resolve them.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Rich - Here is what you are missing...
when I reserve a coin at $975 (after the $1,000 level has already been taken) means that I own the $975 level (not that the coin sells at $975 - unlike other auctions). In other words, a $975 reserve by me means that no one can buy the coin for less than a $1,000 bid.
Wondercoin
I don't understand why people are irritated? Just put your max down and wait.
Garrow
<< <i>I don't understand this one either:
<< <i>I have sold many times on TT. A seller is absolutely forbidden to bid on his own lots. He can enter a buyback/reserve up until 1 hour prior to the open of the auction. As was pointed out though, you can get screwed if a bidder puts in a max prior to the buyback if that is higher than the buyback. Happened to me once and the lot went for far below what my buyback would have been. >>
OK, let me try this one out. Bidder puts in a max prior to the buyback that is higher than the buyback. Let's say bidder's max is $2,000 and buyback is $1,000. Wouldn't the lot sell for $1,000 which is the amount of the reserve? And if a lot sells "well below what my buyback (i.e. reserve) would have been", why didn't you enter a reserve on the lot? Let's say in that situation, your buyback would have been $1,000 but the bidder has already entered a max bid of $2,000. Can't you still enter your reserve at $1,000? Or am I missing something?
Please note, I'm not being critical, I just am not understanding the facts of these situations, and I have had a lot of questions about TT bidding and I'm trying to resolve them. >>
Itis a matter of timing. If I go to enter my buyback (Teletrade's reserve), usually it is no problem. It goes in just fine as long as I do it sometime between when the lot is listed at their site and 1 hour before the auction starts. However, during that same period, any bidder can enter their own max bid (before the auction begins). This has always been the case at Teletrade. Now, if a bidder enters a max bid that is higher than what I later try to enter as my reserve, Teletrade's system tells me there is already a bid higher than my reserve and rejects it completely. It is not processed and the lot opens with the normal starting bid not one increment above my intended reserve. (TT could make more dough if they did process reserves to do just that though!)
So, if I consign a coin and want to do a $1000 reserve/buback on it but before I try to enter that someone has already put in a $1400 max bid, I am rejected when I try to do the buyback. The lot does not open at $1000, but at $6 (or whatever is their current start). Theoretically, if no other bidders come around, it could sell to that bidder for $6 and the juice.
A couple ways to handle this. The obvious one is to check often for the lots to list and get your reserves in before anyone else sees them. In the days of sniping, we forget that there are people who still do those advance bids. The other approach when you've already been bid is to fish for the bidder's max but incrementally trying successively higher buybacks until one takes. The downside there is that if the bidder doesn't come back, and these sorts often don't (they just leave the most they'd pay and wait for a winner notification), you will possibly be paying a buyback fee on the lot. Of course, if they return and outbid by taking the next increment or if another bidder shows up, you do well. The downside of just forgetting about it and throwing it to the wind is the lot might sell for considerably less than what your intended reserve would have been. On an issue of limited appeal, this could easily be the case. It's a matter of balanced risks. The best is to always do your reserves ASAP.
edited to add>> It isn't all that bad though. In the case where, you leapfrogged the bidder with the $1500 (actually, I think it would be $1450) bid in fishing him out, you'll pay about 50% more than expected in your buyback. HOWEVER, now you know his max bid was $1400. You can recapture the difference if you assume he returns and bids similarly on the next auction appearance of your unsold lot. Instead of $1000, put a $1200 buyback rightaway. He comes in and puts a $1400 or so bid again before the auction and he'll be paying $1250 if no other bidders show up. Your percentage of the $250 additional (over the $1000) is surely more than the buyback on the extra $500 reserve you had to set to escape the risk.
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ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Now to your theory, Real knowledgable coin collectors know what a coin is worth before the bidding even starts, so on that note if you want a deal or a bargain, try ebay. Do the research and buy the coin at the right price, don't expect Teletrade or any other clearing house to see things your way or they too will fall victim to societys woes.