A Lincoln Memorial Set in 65 or better...
OneCent
Posts: 3,561 ✭
No varieties except the 1960 and 1960-D LD/SD and the 1970-S high 7/ low 7. All coins in minimum 65 with at least half in 66 or better.
What do you think with regard to long-term potential? I say it has lots!
What do you think with regard to long-term potential? I say it has lots!
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
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a couple hundred to put together now raw. The amount of work involved would
be simply staggering and by the time you closed in on the finish it might no long-
er be doable.
It would run about $1,500 to buy it slabbed now if you can find the coins but
some of these are tough because they don't get slabbed in such low grade.
Figure hard work will actually get a slabbed set for a couple thousand but many
of these coins are quite unappreciated. The problem though is you're going to be
spending a lot of more money for slabbing fee than for coin with many dates so
it could take a while to appreciate.
I would strongly recommend that anyone attempting this set reach for higher
grades where the price difference is nominal. A lot of the zincs of pretty easy
in higher grade. Watch out for spots. This will be a growing problem with many
of these dates. Some of the highest grade zincs are so sharply struck that the
copper is pulled right off the devices and these coins will not survive.
It's a great set and deserves far more attention than it gets. Eventually the gov-
ernment will wake up and realize it's not 1965 any more and this coin will be elim-
inated. When that happens people are going to realize that some of these coins
are not as common as they thought. None is truly rare or scarce in gem but after
looking at some '79-D mint set cents you might think they are.
Sorry, Not Much. Why?
The coins are only hyped now because of the registry.
All are readily available in MS 66 and some in 67 grades.
Billions exist that could be slabbed at ANY time.
Want to talk reality, talk to Ellwood who sold his set that was about #8 and see what he has to say about the difference in price, demand, profit, and reality.
Fun to collect, yes, but increased value, NO.
WS
<< <i>What do you think with regard to long-term potential?
Sorry, Not Much. Why?
The coins are only hyped now because of the registry.
All are readily available in MS 66 and some in 67 grades.
Billions exist that could be slabbed at ANY time.
Want to talk reality, talk to Ellwood who sold his set that was about #8 and see what he has to say about the difference in price, demand, profit, and reality.
Fun to collect, yes, but increased value, NO.
WS >>
I have to believe you've never tried looking for these. There probably are literally billions
out there but do you really think people were out looking for nice cents to set aside in 1984?
Sure there were millions of most dates saved but they were mostly just random since "real"
collectors don't collect coins made after 1964. In some cases gems account for well under 1%
of production and every date wasn't heavily saved.
One of the most unappreciated coins is the '84-D. Try finding a true gem of this date.
I dare you!
Even finding rolls to check will be difficult and when you do you'll have to pay over bid ($10.50)
and odds are the coins will be corroded. If you're lucky enough to get a nice roll there still
won't be a gem in it most likely. Check out the mint sets. Half of these are corroded and
95% of the remainder have ugly surfaces. When you get the 2 or 3% that are nice in the set
they still won't often be gem.
There are tougher dates. Look at the coin if you're buying slabs and be sure it's a nice well
made examples without spots.
THe clads are a hundred times tougher in gem but there's a hundred times more demand for
the cents with the potential to be far more yet.
<< <i>I tend to think any coin struck in the billions, will have millions of gems. >>
Millions of gems of every date were made. Indeed, probably 100's of millions
of most dates. But only as few as a couple million made it out of the mint still
gem and people weren't looking for these coins. Most of the gems that did get
out of the mint went to the bank, to the store, to the consumer, and then into
the garbage stream.
Find a '68 gem. Try a '78-D or even an '80-D. Try finding a '66 that's not SMS.
None of these are great rarities but the low price ($20) is much more indicative
of demand in some cases than supply. Everyone chases the gem wheaties and
ignores the gem memorials. You can go to any coin show and come up with a
small handfull of gem '09-S VDBs but getting a fully struck and nice gem '72-D is
tougher.
How about a complete date-n-mm set, in 65. That would be an epic achievement, and costly.
<< <i>What do you think with regard to long-term potential?
Sorry, Not Much. Why?
The coins are only hyped now because of the registry.
All are readily available in MS 66 and some in 67 grades.
Billions exist that could be slabbed at ANY time.
Want to talk reality, talk to Ellwood who sold his set that was about #8 and see what he has to say about the difference in price, demand, profit, and reality.
Fun to collect, yes, but increased value, NO.
WS >>
I here ya WS, and your comments were my initial thoughts as well. However, in thinking about it further, of those billions and billions minted how many really survived in true gem state or even superb gem state? Probably only a small fraction of the billions minted. Granted a small fraction is still in the millions. Of those millions there has been and will continue to be attrition as not many really care so much about modern Lincolns. With all that said, long-term say 20 -30 years my belief is that a set in true gem mint state and better will be worth a good deal as compared to what it now.
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
<< <i> "real" collectors don't collect coins made after 1964. >>
Wow! That could've hurt...if I'd had let it!
<< <i>I will admit, I never have tried to do this set in anything other than a generic choice BU. Maybe time to start picking them out........... >>
Don't get exuberant with the prices. More than half really are common in gem.
The trick to this set is to buy them in the right grade. Where a gem in $20 and
an MS-67 can be had for $40 then buy the nicer coin but don't pay big multiples
unless that's what you really want.
You also have to look at the coins. There aren't a lot overgraded but some dates
do come with problems and a gem should not have carbon spots or ugly surfaces.
A nice gem set is doable and can be assembled raw at this time. I don't believe
this will last even long enough to finish the set though since it will take years.
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
Now since nobody asked, if you want my opinion on a set to watch that will double your money...IHC. They are still dirt cheap. The keys are available for the price of a 63 D and you will still have a BIGGER audience to buy them should you want to sell in 20 years. JMHO.
WS
<< <i>Hey, I am one of those who says "wait till 2009". Plus, I hate the term "investment" for coin collecting. So for the shear challenge of collecting those few scarce gem memorials, have at it. And yes, the recent sale may NOT say anything about post 2009 expectations of return. Your also talking to a person who gets sick at the price of a MS 66 63-D! (thats why I refuse to buy one) look at what that kind of cent you can buy for that money!!! Hell man, you can almost buy a MPL!!But the question was about long term potential. And I am saying it is not in that set. MPLs, early high grade 50 proofs, pre 34 red wheats, yes, Memorials, no. In fact any shake in the collecting market (which I still say IS going to happen) the Memorials will be the first to go. But for the shear challenge of collecting a MS 65 Memorial set, its there. And there are those who are going after toned sets, R&B sets too. GREAT!, have fun, but I still say you will be kicking yourself if you think you would cash in a Memorial set to put your kids through college in 20 years. As the thread stated, no big varieties. Heck, go look at the BV chart, that means you need to go from 2007 - 1977 (30 years) to even find a coin worth $35. Their is a reason why a complete MS 65 set is only going to cost $1400+ add what ever historic inflationary values to that number and see what you come up with. then like today, divide it in half, and that is what its going to be worth at market.
Now since nobody asked, if you want my opinion on a set to watch that will double your money...IHC. They are still dirt cheap. The keys are available for the price of a 63 D and you will still have a BIGGER audience to buy them should you want to sell in 20 years. JMHO.
>>
I couldn't agree more about "investing" in coins. It's always a losing proposition since you could have had fun and a much better chance of making a profit.
But I strongly disagree about the potential future value of the memorial set compared to the wheats. First off if you're just going to look at MS-65 you might not be far wrong. As I said before some of these coins are pretty common so you'll be spending nearly as much for slabbing as for your cent collection. You shouldn't count on getting this back and even if you do you'll still have to wait for the coin to increase. Some of these coins are so common they're really worth only 50c or a dollar in gem and the rest is grading costs.
So, if you're talking about "investing" in MS-65 memorials then yes, you'll probably be a loser for some time to come. But a collector should know better than buying an unslabbable coin that's worth 50c for $10 just because it's in a good holder. A real collector will seek quality coins at prices he knows are commensurate to the current market and the grade.
I believe real collectors will clean up in memorials because as time goes on there will be more and more people who don't care when a coin was minted. There will be more collectors who will want a 1969-S penny just as much as any '09-S. As this comes to pass you'll see relatively higher demand for all these later dates and relatively higher prices.
However, people love them (I'm not sure why).
They will always be popular.
They will always be in high demand.
Therefore as far as long term potential is concerned they are worth they're weight in gold (not copper.)
Edited to say: Ooops! I thought you were talking about all of the Lincoln cents not just the memorial ones. In that case a lot of them are made of zinc too.
The Lincoln Memorial Cents are in general far more difficult in nice condition than the late date wheats. The mint seemed to make the nicest coins in the 1930's and then until at least 1982 there was just a steady downhill trend (and many 1982 and after zinc dates are prone to spotting).
Right now the market is very very thin for high grade memorials. One problem is not enough collectors are educated, as to how to grade and as to what's rare and what's not. Most collectors don't appreciate the difference between a very tough to find gem and a very common lower grade coin of the same date. For these to be widely collected people will need to understand and appreciate the difference. Also, consistent grading standard need to be developed. You have plenty of dealers who advertise Gem BU but in reality the coin is any okay looking coin out of a roll. Then you have pcgs, who early on put some very high grades on some very low quality coins, but now has drastically changed their standards making a top graded coin virtually impossible to find.
So maybe over time people will become more educated and the popularity of these will grow, or maybe not. Who really knows.
<< <i>Watersport, you don't understand the rarity of a true 66rd 63-d. If you did the price wouldn't make you sick. ). >>
What are you talking about? I have 20 in my change today.
what I'm doing and will volunteer my own experience:
Last Fall I submitted 100 of the best 63-D 1c from several hundred BU 63-D cent rolls to PCGS via prescreen
(requesting minimum grade of MS66RD) and only three coins (3/100) were slabbed as such. Later on, after
finding several exceptional BU rolls of 63-D, I submitted another 150 coins via bulk and was shutout - 0/150!
What a blow to my ego (and checkbook). I still think a few of those coins were nice enough for PCGS MS66RD designations (no one would have complained.)
This date is the condition scarcity of the L.M. cent set. Can you imagine a PCGS MS67RD 63-D cent that
you actually liked???
<< <i>If you're talking true MS-65 with nice strikes and no spots I believe it will cost
a couple hundred to put together now raw. The amount of work involved would
be simply staggering and by the time you closed in on the finish it might no long-
er be doable. >>
I'd say that's accurate, lots of people (including myself) really didn't pay much attention to the quality of the Memorial cents for some time, so many sets aren't particularly high quality. It's possible to pull together a nice 65/66 set from raw coins now, with the exception of a few dates, but would take some effort to find the nice ones.
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
<< <i>How about a complete date-n-mm set, in 65. That would be an epic achievement, and costly. >>
I suppose it would be possible to complete this set quickly if one had the financial resources and only cared what number was on the label.
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
<< <i>Thats it, I'm on a mission. I will do my best to assemble a RAW gem set of these, heck, it's only a very small cost NOW with room to move up alot or down a little. Not a bad idea. >>
Relatively cheap to do so, but be prepared to look at lots of coins to find really nice ones!
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
<< <i>If you're talking true MS-65 with nice strikes and no spots I believe it will cost a couple hundred to put together now raw. The amount of work involved would be simply staggering and by the time you closed in on the finish it might no longer be doable. >>
i definitely do not agree. there are literally tens of 1000s of original, untampered rolls out there FOR EACH DATE. i think it would be no big deal to put together a complete ROLL set of gem red memorials, if someone were so inclined.
K S
If you are asking if the set as a whole has potential, my opinion is NO. It also depends on what you mean by long-term potential. Do you mean, will the set go up in value by 10%, 30% or 50%? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?
Some of the key coins within the memorial set might have long term potential (63-D in 66RD, 70-S SD in 66RD, etc.) but you are not going to be talking about huge gains. As WS mentioned in an earlier post on this thread, I sold off my entire PCGS memorial set several months ago...with every single coin being 66RD or higher. With that said, I took a beating on some of the memorials and it was not because I paid too much for them on the front end. It was because the pops have gone up in the interim. A majority of my coins were gems (66.6 or higher) and I can only think of maybe 2 or 3 that were ok for the grade. So, did I turn any sort of a "profit" on the memorials? Nope. In fact, I lost a little bit of money but I gained it all back and then some with the sale of my wheats (34-58 all 66RD or higher).
My belief is that due to the continually rising pops of 66RD and 65RD memorials, you are not EVER going to be able to put this set as a "gainer" or a set with long term potential for gains. I think acquiring some of the key coins in the series with low pops (especially a gem 63-D that I used to own) might be a smart thing. If I could buy back my 63-D that I sold to RegistryNut, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
One Cent, put together a 65/66 set in PCGS holders and then let's look at it again in 5 or 6 years. It would be very interesting to see how much, if any, it's market value changed. Most likely you will see that many of the values of "average population" memorials will have gone down...and as CladKing stated...those sporatic tough 66RD coins scattered throughout the 60's, 70's and 80's will hold their value and maybe gain a little as long as the pops don't go up. Remember, all it takes is one GEM ROLL to spoil the pops on a particular year and the values of that date go plummeting. I saw that happen last year with a board member who made a slew of 66RDs in a particular date in the 60's. So many that they had to go to Heritage and be auctioned off in bulk! I still believe there are a lot more rolls out there than people really think. Whether or not they ever surface and continue to be submitted remains to be seen.
I can think of many other coins that would have "long term potential" before lincolns. I collected lincolns because I truly love the coin...not because I was in it for the money! JMHO.
rolls of these back in'74. If memory serves, the coins were mixed with BU 74-D cents due to the possible
hoarding by speculators (ooh, the gov't hates speculators.) Many 74-S cents have drab lustered surfaces
similar to 72-S & 73-S. Many have fingerprints due to sorting out mixed BU 74-D&S rolls. And then the usual
contact marks keep coins out of the gem BU grade.
It wouldn't surprise me if this coin proves to be more elusive in the long term than the 1973-S cent since
the available supply of unsearched 74-S cents is much lower.
WS
Just a few excerpts:
All pages in my set #1 are similar of better. Lousy photos through the plastic slides though.
<< <i>
My belief is that due to the continually rising pops of 66RD and 65RD memorials, you are not EVER going to be able to put this set as a "gainer" or a set with long term potential for gains. I think acquiring some of the key coins in the series with low pops (especially a gem 63-D that I used to own) might be a smart thing. If I could buy back my 63-D that I sold to RegistryNut, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
>>
Generally these pops are much lower than the pops for the older coins. While
it's obviously true that rising pops are detrimental to prices ultimately all that
will matter are absolute numbers.
In absolute numbers almost every memorial is more common than the wheats in
MS-60. Even in MS-63 the memorials are more common for 95% of the dates.
But in gem there are lots of dates that are scarcer than the older coins and this
same thing is more pronounced in the higher grades.
In the long term there should be just as much demand for memorials as for the
wheat cents and this will result in the prices going higher. Yes, as prices rise there
will be more getting graded since that's what it takes to get them sent in but so
long as they are absolutely scarcer then this puts a cap on the numbers graded.
There's also reason to believe that the demand for memorials might even exceed
the demand for wheats in the future. For most individuals the cost of assembling
a gem or even a choice set of wheats is far too great while a gem set of memorials
will always be much lower. Indeed, since the memorials are extremely common in
MS-60 it will be possible to put together a set of these very cheaply for many de-
cades to come and then work on upgrades. One can't even get the wheats in poc-
ket change.
For $2000 one can put together a pretty spectacular set of memorials today with
all gems and many coins up to MS-68. For the same amount you'd have to settle
for a VG/F set of wheats.
Actually "making a new' ms66 ms67 or ms68 memorial may be fairly expensive with what I think are tougher grading standards that apply to later date lincolns. If you read the standards of the Lincoln Cent, it is actually impossible to get some higher grades with ANY coin of a certain year, the quality of the strikes and dies were so poor. The detail required to meet the standards just dosent exsist so all you have is absence of wear and lustur.
<< <i>Heres a real factor.........almost any date memorial in 64rd or 65rd can be had on ebay for less than the combined sub fee plus shipping. Its much cheaper and easier to just shuffle around this fairly large number of already made coins between the collectors who feel the need to have an average date memorial cent in nice condiition wrapped in PCGS plastic.
. >>
This is what I've been trying to say. It's a mistake to try to put this set together as an
investment because you are going to get burned coming and going. Prices are insanely
cheap. You might look at a $13,000 cent and think prices are crazy but this is the high
end of the market (even above the high end).In the lower grades you're paying for en-
capsulation, shipping, handling and just about everything but coins.
But it makes a great collection in or out of the plastic if you pay attention and demand
value for your money.
I don't believe you can go wrong and when the demand increases a couple hundred fold
you'll really have a bonanza.
Lincoln's Rule - I believe that I bought both the 1981 and the 1981-D from you.
Ok, here is the premise behind my post. I am quietly putting together a raw set of Memorials in true gem grade or better. Some I pick-up raw, some I find in OBW roll's and other's I purchase holdered (PCGS, NGC or ICG) on e-bay and crack them out. My goal is to put together a Dansco album (#7102) of raw true gem grade Memorials. Let me define true gem grade...think PCGS back in 1986 when a 65 was a 66 or 67 now. No carbon spotting allowed whatsoever. No distracting or significant cuts. All Red with no meaningful toning.
I've been at it for over a year now and let me tell you it is not an easy task...only 16 pre-ZLincoln's are in the Dansco and 3 of them are marginal true gems (60-P sd, 61-d, 63-d). Many rolls that I purchase are all crap...spotted, cuts and generally unappealing. Some of the Memorials in holders that I buy graded 65 are crap...cuts, small carbon spots visible with the naked eye...these are rejected and not cracked. Many of the Memorials sitting in the B&M dealer's cheapie Binder's in 2x2's labeled as Gem BU are crap...same thing ...spotted, cuts, major toning. So based upon my experience, putting together a true gem (raw or holdered) set of Lincoln Memorials (especially pre-ZLinc's) is no easy task. When all is said and done it will probably have cost me $2K+.
Why am I doing this you may ask. Certainly not with expectations that I am going to "cash-in" in 2010 or 2020. First, I love Lincoln Cents. Second, I enjoy the challenge of finding examples for this collection that satisfy MY criteria of a true gem...the thrill of the hunt to a certain extent. Finally, my boy has no interest in coin collecting whatsoever. This set, when completed, will be a gift to him at some point with the instructions that it is to be handed down to his kids. So, assuming that the coins stay intact (don't turn or spot in the album), in 2050 or 2060 my hope is that they are still cherished as a gift from the old man or they can be sold for a healthy amount. Either way, a piece of numismatic history will be carried into the future.
Keep on Truckin'!
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
<< <i>If you're talking true MS-65 with nice strikes and no spots I believe it will cost
a couple hundred to put together now raw. The amount of work involved would
be simply staggering and by the time you closed in on the finish it might no long-
er be doable.
It would run about $1,500 to buy it slabbed now if you can find the coins but
some of these are tough because they don't get slabbed in such low grade.
Figure hard work will actually get a slabbed set for a couple thousand but many
of these coins are quite unappreciated. The problem though is you're going to be
spending a lot of more money for slabbing fee than for coin with many dates so
it could take a while to appreciate.
I would strongly recommend that anyone attempting this set reach for higher
grades where the price difference is nominal. A lot of the zincs of pretty easy
in higher grade. Watch out for spots. This will be a growing problem with many
of these dates. Some of the highest grade zincs are so sharply struck that the
copper is pulled right off the devices and these coins will not survive.
It's a great set and deserves far more attention than it gets. Eventually the gov-
ernment will wake up and realize it's not 1965 any more and this coin will be elim-
inated. When that happens people are going to realize that some of these coins
are not as common as they thought. None is truly rare or scarce in gem but after
looking at some '79-D mint set cents you might think they are. >>
I don't collect or follow moderns, but love reading what cladking has to say. Expertise is always appreciated!