Oh the contrarian-- is Doug Winter reccomending San Francisco and Philly gold??
Longacre
Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
I was taking a look at Winter's recent blog. In it he reccomends certain series that can only be classified as "contrarian". I recall the very first time I spoke to him on the phone. RYK suggest that I give DW a call and discuss my gold collecting interests. During the course of our discussion, which focused on Southern gold, I mentioned about collecting San Francisco gold. On the other end of the phone, I recall Winter stating, in a quite exasperated voice (as if to say, "this country bumpkin from Connecticut just fell off a turnip truck")-- "well, if you want to be a true contrarian, I guess you can collect San Francisco gold." I immediately was embarassed for even suggesting such blasphemy, and I have never looked at a piece of San Fran gold since.
Now I see in Winter's blog he mentions SF and Philly gold. What do you think of his comments on this?
**********
February 22, 2008
There is no doubt that we are currently experiencing a very good coin market. Many areas have increased exponentially in price in the last three to five years with the top end of the market now out of reach for most collectors. And this has created a market that has proven very frustrating to long-term collectors.
Let’s say that you are a collector who has focused on early gold for the last decade. In the past, your biggest worry was probably finding coins. If you collected, say, early half eagles, you were able to find the more common issues pretty easily and had steeled yourself to waiting quietly for your chance to buy the rare issues.
But in this very strong market, there is an “X” factor. New, well-heeled collectors have come into the upper echelon of many series and made life difficult for more established collectors. The early half eagle collector who had been waiting three years to buy an 1827 in nice Uncirculated all of a sudden has a number of loose cannons to compete against who may take the attitude “I don’t care what it sells for, I want it.”
This has to be frustrating. I was speaking to a collector the other day whose area of specialization has gone crazy (price-wise) seemingly overnight. He had been able to pretty much have his way in his series for a few years but now he’s frustrated because the coins he needs are either going to sell for more than he can afford or these new Mega Collectors are going to be offered the coins privately before he is.
As I told him, this isn’t necessarily a totally bad problem to have. In theory, the rare coins he already owns should be worth more money. But he’s frustrated because he doesn’t want to sell; he’d rather complete his chosen set and then worry about what to do with it.
This tale of woe got me to thinking: what are some gold series right now that a collector whose isn’t a Zillionaire could still be the Master of His Domain and collect very high quality coins without having to pay insane prices?
One series that comes to mind is business strike Type Three gold dollars. I personally love the series and if I were a collector looking for a challenge, I’d work on a date set of Philadelphia issues from 1856 through 1889. All of these can be obtained in Uncirculated and a wide variety of collecting budgets can be accommodated. One of the real beauties of these coins is that nearly all of the dates exist in Gem Uncirculated and if you haven’t seen an MS66 or MS67 gold dollar from the 1860’s or 1870’s, you are in for an aesthetic treat.
Another series that I think would be very challenging but a lot of fun would be the San Francisco quarter eagles struck from 1856 through 1878 (I’m not including the extremely rare 1854-S in this set since I’m assuming that most collectors are not going to be able to spring for the six-figure price that it would take to procure an example). The rarest collectible issues in this series are the 1862-S and 1863-S. Neither is incredibly hard to find in nice AU grades but if this set were going to be assembled in Uncirculated, both issues are extremely rare. What really intrigues me about these coins is the fact that they are genuinely rare in Uncirculated and they seem like pretty good values in comparison to the southern branch mint coins. I’m not so certain that they will ever become popular but the good news is that if you decide to work on a high grade set, you are not likely to be confronted by the dreaded Zillionaire Collector Who Has To Have It.
If a collector with a decent-sized budget wants to have his way in the Three Dollar gold series, he has an opportunity right now to buy some pretty interesting coins. I’ve seen some interesting dates in the MS63 and MS64 range sell for approximately 20-30% less than what they were bringing a few years ago and I’ve found the grading standards of these coins to be—of late—pretty tight in comparison to a few years ago. I would contend that the Three Dollar series is more popular right now than generally believed but it is not the Darling of Telemarketers that it was for a brief and shining moment in 2005-2006.
One other area that the prudent gold coin collector could do some serious damage in right now is No Motto half eagles and eagles from Philadelphia. You don’t see a ton of these on the market but when you do they generally do not incite Auction Frenzy like some of the Seated Liberty silver coins from this era. I have bought some really interesting No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s in the last 90 days for less than $20,000 and even some very pleasing pieces in the $2,500-5,000 range. I’ll let you in on a little secret: these are some of the final gold coins of this era that have not been destroyed by coin doctors and if you like pretty, original pieces you are far likely to see a great looking 1847 Philadelphia half eagle than one from the branch mints.
So if you are being driven crazy by Insane Zillionaire Collectors who are making the top end of your series go nuts don’t despair. I’m guessing that 90% of these guys will go away in a few years and your series will go back to less frothy days when they leave. In the meantime, look at this as a good time to take a break, find a new series and once again become The Man.
Doug Winter
2/22/08
www.raregoldcoins.com
For more information on U.S. gold coins please contact me via email at dwn@ont.com
Now I see in Winter's blog he mentions SF and Philly gold. What do you think of his comments on this?
**********
February 22, 2008
There is no doubt that we are currently experiencing a very good coin market. Many areas have increased exponentially in price in the last three to five years with the top end of the market now out of reach for most collectors. And this has created a market that has proven very frustrating to long-term collectors.
Let’s say that you are a collector who has focused on early gold for the last decade. In the past, your biggest worry was probably finding coins. If you collected, say, early half eagles, you were able to find the more common issues pretty easily and had steeled yourself to waiting quietly for your chance to buy the rare issues.
But in this very strong market, there is an “X” factor. New, well-heeled collectors have come into the upper echelon of many series and made life difficult for more established collectors. The early half eagle collector who had been waiting three years to buy an 1827 in nice Uncirculated all of a sudden has a number of loose cannons to compete against who may take the attitude “I don’t care what it sells for, I want it.”
This has to be frustrating. I was speaking to a collector the other day whose area of specialization has gone crazy (price-wise) seemingly overnight. He had been able to pretty much have his way in his series for a few years but now he’s frustrated because the coins he needs are either going to sell for more than he can afford or these new Mega Collectors are going to be offered the coins privately before he is.
As I told him, this isn’t necessarily a totally bad problem to have. In theory, the rare coins he already owns should be worth more money. But he’s frustrated because he doesn’t want to sell; he’d rather complete his chosen set and then worry about what to do with it.
This tale of woe got me to thinking: what are some gold series right now that a collector whose isn’t a Zillionaire could still be the Master of His Domain and collect very high quality coins without having to pay insane prices?
One series that comes to mind is business strike Type Three gold dollars. I personally love the series and if I were a collector looking for a challenge, I’d work on a date set of Philadelphia issues from 1856 through 1889. All of these can be obtained in Uncirculated and a wide variety of collecting budgets can be accommodated. One of the real beauties of these coins is that nearly all of the dates exist in Gem Uncirculated and if you haven’t seen an MS66 or MS67 gold dollar from the 1860’s or 1870’s, you are in for an aesthetic treat.
Another series that I think would be very challenging but a lot of fun would be the San Francisco quarter eagles struck from 1856 through 1878 (I’m not including the extremely rare 1854-S in this set since I’m assuming that most collectors are not going to be able to spring for the six-figure price that it would take to procure an example). The rarest collectible issues in this series are the 1862-S and 1863-S. Neither is incredibly hard to find in nice AU grades but if this set were going to be assembled in Uncirculated, both issues are extremely rare. What really intrigues me about these coins is the fact that they are genuinely rare in Uncirculated and they seem like pretty good values in comparison to the southern branch mint coins. I’m not so certain that they will ever become popular but the good news is that if you decide to work on a high grade set, you are not likely to be confronted by the dreaded Zillionaire Collector Who Has To Have It.
If a collector with a decent-sized budget wants to have his way in the Three Dollar gold series, he has an opportunity right now to buy some pretty interesting coins. I’ve seen some interesting dates in the MS63 and MS64 range sell for approximately 20-30% less than what they were bringing a few years ago and I’ve found the grading standards of these coins to be—of late—pretty tight in comparison to a few years ago. I would contend that the Three Dollar series is more popular right now than generally believed but it is not the Darling of Telemarketers that it was for a brief and shining moment in 2005-2006.
One other area that the prudent gold coin collector could do some serious damage in right now is No Motto half eagles and eagles from Philadelphia. You don’t see a ton of these on the market but when you do they generally do not incite Auction Frenzy like some of the Seated Liberty silver coins from this era. I have bought some really interesting No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s in the last 90 days for less than $20,000 and even some very pleasing pieces in the $2,500-5,000 range. I’ll let you in on a little secret: these are some of the final gold coins of this era that have not been destroyed by coin doctors and if you like pretty, original pieces you are far likely to see a great looking 1847 Philadelphia half eagle than one from the branch mints.
So if you are being driven crazy by Insane Zillionaire Collectors who are making the top end of your series go nuts don’t despair. I’m guessing that 90% of these guys will go away in a few years and your series will go back to less frothy days when they leave. In the meantime, look at this as a good time to take a break, find a new series and once again become The Man.
Doug Winter
2/22/08
www.raregoldcoins.com
For more information on U.S. gold coins please contact me via email at dwn@ont.com
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
0
Comments
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
the stage for his regular customers to make purchases outside their
norm.
an 1847 half eagle is so dirt common i am shocked he mentioned it.
I have bought some really interesting No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s in the last 90 days for less than $20,000 and even some very pleasing pieces in the $2,500-5,000 range.
I will tell you right now, 20,000 for a P half eagle in that date range
must be a finest known. 2500-5000 also will pick up high end MS
if not the finest known models.
Now if you have that kind of dough to spend on a high end common half
eagle, you really should have no problem collecting whatever interests you as long as you are not competing for the finest known
of every date.
rather self serving setup blog if you ask me and has no value to me.
plus he did not answer my email. i must not be a player asking to
blow my large wad.
so in summary, the guy just wishes to make money off rich folks. his
advice strikes me as next to useless. a collector with an ounce of
brain power can figure out this for themself and they do not require
a dealer like him to figure it out.
<< <i>so in summary, the guy just wishes to make money off rich folks. his
advice strikes me as next to useless. a collector with an ounce of
brain power can figure out this for themself and they do not require
a dealer like him to figure it out. >>
About a week ago you posted that Doug Winter was your favorite online coin dealer here, which I thought was shocking since most of the time you seem to be ripping him like you are in the current thread.
<< <i>an 1847 half eagle is so dirt common i am shocked he mentioned it.
I have bought some really interesting No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s in the last 90 days for less than $20,000 and even some very pleasing pieces in the $2,500-5,000 range.q]
Sure, 1847 half eagles are common as dirt. How about original pieces? I spent hours wandering around the Long Beach show last week. I can tell you for a fact that I was disappointed by what I saw. Most old gold these days are dipped to death. Next time you are at a show, take a look around. I think you will be surprised by how many old, bright gold coins you run into...
<< <i>
<< <i>so in summary, the guy just wishes to make money off rich folks. his
advice strikes me as next to useless. a collector with an ounce of
brain power can figure out this for themself and they do not require
a dealer like him to figure it out. >>
About a week ago you posted that Doug Winter was your favorite online coin dealer here, which I thought was shocking since most of the time you seem to be ripping him like you are in the current thread. >>
nice try. he is well known for selling high quality gold coins. i have never
bought from him. is there some rule that i cannot debate his blog posts
and yet recommend him as a trust worthy dealer if a person decides
for themself if they wish to buy?
so saying he is my favorite coin dealer is stretching it a bit considering
i have never spent a dime with him eh?
also i rip on him due to the hero worship he seems to get which i find
quite amusing. yet i cannot deny he has some amazing coins for sale. drool!
<< <i>BTW, some Philly gold is rare - sometimes more so than branch mint gold.
when it comes to half eagles and rare, P and S are they keys.
1854-S and 1875P.
if you have the money you can complete a set of D half eagles in a
year or three.
trying it with S or P you may find yourself stuck finding a few pieces
longer then you think.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>so in summary, the guy just wishes to make money off rich folks. his
advice strikes me as next to useless. a collector with an ounce of
brain power can figure out this for themself and they do not require
a dealer like him to figure it out. >>
About a week ago you posted that Doug Winter was your favorite online coin dealer here, which I thought was shocking since most of the time you seem to be ripping him like you are in the current thread. >>
nice try. he is well known for selling high quality gold coins. i have never
bought from him. is there some rule that i cannot debate his blog posts
and yet recommend him as a trust worthy dealer if a person decides
for themself if they wish to buy?
so saying he is my favorite coin dealer is stretching it a bit considering
i have never spent a dime with him eh?
also i rip on him due to the hero worship he seems to get which i find
quite amusing. yet i cannot deny he has some amazing coins for sale. drool! >>
OK Matt.
<< <i>an 1847 half eagle is so dirt common i am shocked he mentioned it.
I have bought some really interesting No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s in the last 90 days for less than $20,000 and even some very pleasing pieces in the $2,500-5,000 range.
Sure, 1847 half eagles are common as dirt. How about original pieces? I spent hours wandering around the Long Beach show last week. I can tell you for a fact that I was disappointed by what I saw. Most old gold these days are dipped to death. Next time you are at a show, take a look around. I think you will be surprised by how many old, bright gold coins you run into... >>
are you referring to lower grade coins because i was not really discussing them. there was nearly 1 million minted of that date and
you can find examples all the way up to MS66! I really do not expect
my lowly MS64-65 to have dirt in the cracks do you?
<< <i>To me, the most interesting part of that blog is use of words like "frothy" and "The Man."
Supposedly Winter does not read the threads here. I find that hard to believe.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>To me, the most interesting part of that blog is use of words like "frothy" and "The Man."
I think it was ghost-written.
The only problem I have with the blog is the suggestion for those who are priced out of their preferred rare date gold niche to venture into three areas that are not the least bit interesting to me. Of course, if Philly Type III gold dollars float your boat, by all means go for out. I could be happy with but one Type III gold dollar in my collection.
Edit: I have always liked $3's. It is an area that I always find very tempting.
<< <i>
<< <i>BTW, some Philly gold is rare - sometimes more so than branch mint gold.
when it comes to half eagles and rare, P and S are they keys.
1854-S and 1875P.
if you have the money you can complete a set of D half eagles in a
year or three.
trying it with S or P you may find yourself stuck finding a few pieces
longer then you think. >>
I'm not sure you could complete a Dahlonega set of half eagles in 1 year but I'll humor you. I'll bet the vast majority of that set looks like cr@p.
If you are talking Denver, then sure.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>BTW, some Philly gold is rare - sometimes more so than branch mint gold.
when it comes to half eagles and rare, P and S are they keys.
1854-S and 1875P.
if you have the money you can complete a set of D half eagles in a
year or three.
trying it with S or P you may find yourself stuck finding a few pieces
longer then you think. >>
I'm not sure you could complete a Dahlonega set of half eagles in 1 year but I'll humor you. I'll bet the vast majority of that set looks like cr@p.
If you are talking Denver, then sure. >>
yea, one year is stretching it a bit but we have a forum member who
assembled one in quite a rapid manner and his coins were nice looking.
<< <i>
<< <i>an 1847 half eagle is so dirt common i am shocked he mentioned it.
I have bought some really interesting No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s in the last 90 days for less than $20,000 and even some very pleasing pieces in the $2,500-5,000 range.
Sure, 1847 half eagles are common as dirt. How about original pieces? I spent hours wandering around the Long Beach show last week. I can tell you for a fact that I was disappointed by what I saw. Most old gold these days are dipped to death. Next time you are at a show, take a look around. I think you will be surprised by how many old, bright gold coins you run into... >>
are you referring to lower grade coins because i was not really discussing them. there was nearly 1 million minted of that date and
you can find examples all the way up to MS66! I really do not expect
my lowly MS64-65 to have dirt in the cracks do you? >>
Yes, you can find examples (emphasis on plural) of 1847-P half eagles up to MS66. PCGS has graded 2.
Dirt in devices is only one of several indicators of originality.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>BTW, some Philly gold is rare - sometimes more so than branch mint gold.
when it comes to half eagles and rare, P and S are they keys.
1854-S and 1875P.
if you have the money you can complete a set of D half eagles in a
year or three.
trying it with S or P you may find yourself stuck finding a few pieces
longer then you think. >>
I'm not sure you could complete a Dahlonega set of half eagles in 1 year but I'll humor you. I'll bet the vast majority of that set looks like cr@p.
If you are talking Denver, then sure. >>
It took me about four years, and there were still a few coins that needed to be upgraded. It is very difficult to find decent 38-D's and 39-D's, and 42-D LD's and 61-D's have become very hard to buy. Could you fill all the holes within a year? Of course. Could you fill the holes with coins I would want to own in a year or two? No chance.
I like my 39-D and I agree, they are becoming tougher to locate.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>an 1847 half eagle is so dirt common i am shocked he mentioned it.
I have bought some really interesting No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s in the last 90 days for less than $20,000 and even some very pleasing pieces in the $2,500-5,000 range.
Sure, 1847 half eagles are common as dirt. How about original pieces? I spent hours wandering around the Long Beach show last week. I can tell you for a fact that I was disappointed by what I saw. Most old gold these days are dipped to death. Next time you are at a show, take a look around. I think you will be surprised by how many old, bright gold coins you run into... >>
are you referring to lower grade coins because i was not really discussing them. there was nearly 1 million minted of that date and
you can find examples all the way up to MS66! I really do not expect
my lowly MS64-65 to have dirt in the cracks do you? >>
Yes, you can find examples (emphasis on plural) of 1847-P half eagles up to MS66. PCGS has graded 2.
Dirt in devices is only one of several indicators of originality. >>
surely you do not think an uncirculated mint state half eagle should
have dirt in the cracks do you? that is a sign of circulation. if you mean
a nice patina, copper toned areas, or etc.. i can agree with that but
not dirt. i do not ever recall seeing a MS64 or higher half eagle with
actual dirt stuck to it.
And please don't call me Shirley.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>BTW, some Philly gold is rare - sometimes more so than branch mint gold.
when it comes to half eagles and rare, P and S are they keys.
1854-S and 1875P.
if you have the money you can complete a set of D half eagles in a
year or three.
trying it with S or P you may find yourself stuck finding a few pieces
longer then you think. >>
I'm not sure you could complete a Dahlonega set of half eagles in 1 year but I'll humor you. I'll bet the vast majority of that set looks like cr@p.
If you are talking Denver, then sure. >>
It took me about four years, and there were still a few coins that needed to be upgraded. It is very difficult to find decent 38-D's and 39-D's, and 42-D LD's and 61-D's have become very hard to buy. Could you fill all the holes within a year? Of course. Could you fill the holes with coins I would want to own in a year or two? No chance. >>
my point is that trying to complete a run of S half eagles, for example,
not including the 54-S you will find tougher coins to aquire then almost
any D half eagle.
1859-S half eagle has appeared at heritage 15 times versus the 1861-D, 26 times. (dupes included).
with some half eagles from P and S you may not even have a choice
to include an ugly coin in your set let alone a pretty one.
edited to add:
another good example of true rarity is the 1864-S. heritage has auctioned a measily seven pieces.
lol. and what do i find in the description?
"Even though the average collector probably wouldn't pick it out in a lineup of scarce No Motto Fives, the 1864-S is one of the most important rarities within the Liberty half eagle series. It is exceeded in scarcity only by the 1842 Large Letters, 1843-O Small Letters, 1875 (with a mintage of just 200 pieces), and the legendary 1854-S. The various C and D mint Half Eagles, for all their popularity and difficulty, do not even come close to the 1864-S. We doubt that more than two dozen pieces exist from a paltry mintage of 3,888 coins. "
<< <i>
I like my 39-D and I agree, they are becoming tougher to locate. >>
drool! nice coin. you have to love any 1839 half eagle. i have been
searching for a lowly nice 1839P let alone that baby!