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OLD THREAD-Collector/numismatic gold & silver coins have dropped nearly 50% in price in the last
oreville
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Collector/numismatic gold and silver coins have dropped nearly 50% in price in the last 2+ years & are now bargains.
Think about it. With the price of gold and silver essentially doubling in value over the past few years, the numismatic premium of gold and silver coins have dropped tremendously.
This translates to much more modest numismatic add-on costs for coins with real collector value.
Even scarce BU rolls and even collectible and very scarce obw silver rolls are seeing a return to little or no premium to bullion value.
The collector will be thrilled and yet challenged not to succumb to the allure of playing the bullion game and instead seek out the numismatic items that are nearly "free" for the asking.
This also has the effect of a market crash for the naysayers of the coin hobby's health in the area of inexpensive collector coins and will provide impetus for some of them to return back to the market as buyers in a serious and furious way.
The Parsippany show in NJ was as strong I have seen in 10 years. I suspect that the FUN show will be as stong with it getting very close to extremely bullish.
Comments?
Think about it. With the price of gold and silver essentially doubling in value over the past few years, the numismatic premium of gold and silver coins have dropped tremendously.
This translates to much more modest numismatic add-on costs for coins with real collector value.
Even scarce BU rolls and even collectible and very scarce obw silver rolls are seeing a return to little or no premium to bullion value.
The collector will be thrilled and yet challenged not to succumb to the allure of playing the bullion game and instead seek out the numismatic items that are nearly "free" for the asking.
This also has the effect of a market crash for the naysayers of the coin hobby's health in the area of inexpensive collector coins and will provide impetus for some of them to return back to the market as buyers in a serious and furious way.
The Parsippany show in NJ was as strong I have seen in 10 years. I suspect that the FUN show will be as stong with it getting very close to extremely bullish.
Comments?
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any cooling off in the last two years.
oh sure, some sliders have not been selling for MS62 money anymore
but that is a different animal.
for example a Bass MS61 1894 half eagle sold for 300. Which was
normal in my mind because it was really AU58.
If it was truly MS61 more then one person would have bid on it
and it would have sold for 400+.
What realm of gold coins are you talking about? Even the ugliest
half eagle in AG03 has increased in price due to gold going up. What
I used to buy for 145 is now 220.
C and D half eagles properly graded still fetch multi thousands of
dollars. Even the ugly ones sell for 1500+
sigh ;-) i am still waiting for these bargains you are mentioning?
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This translates to much more modest numismatic add-on costs for coins with real collector value.
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I think i know what you mean by this but I do not see it happening
for desirable half eagles. Prices are either steady or up for the stuff
that interests me. Not down.
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the numismatic premium of gold and silver coins
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after pondering your post for a bit longer i see your point. A low
grade CC half eagle, when gold was 600, you paid a lot more for
the coin itself. Maybe gold was 150 for a 1/4 ounce.. and the coin
cost 250. Thus you paid 100 for the coin on top of the gold value.
Now that 1/4 ounce of gold is 210 lets say and the coin is still 250.
Now you only paid 40 dollars for the coin and that is a lot less risk
if you think about it the way you are suggesting.
I guess I do not think like that now days and it allowed me to
miss your point.
Indeed the collector/numismatic gold and silver coins I am speaking of are the more common and easily obtained coins that are usually sought after for a type set, a starting set or a non advanced collector set.
Gold coins you seek are generally advanced collector coins and rarely would ever fall prey to bullion pricing (except foreign coins).
Gold coin examples I am speaking of:
(1) $20 Liberties in type I in grades below EF. There were some out there for less than $900. Bullion was $830.
(2) $20 Liberties in type II in grades through AU-58. Prices have risen so fast on the bullion that some dealers have not yet repriced some of their coins above $850-$900.
(3) $20 Liberties such as the 1873 open 3 (also a type II) . I have seen mint state examples still fetching $950.
(4) $20 Liberties in mint state, even up to MS-61/62 are fetching $800 to $850.
(5) $20 Saints up to MS-62/63 are fetching $800 to $850.
(6) $10 Libs up to MS-61 are fetching around $400 to $425.
(7) some rare foreign gold and even platinum coins have been selling for pennies above bullion.
Many other examples of gold coins that were surprisingly scarce and yet sold for essentially bullion.
first post. i am a bit slow today. no coffee left at the office. need lunch ;0)
your examples explain what you mean nicely. thanks.
i was thinking at first since gold has gone up, it does not change
what i have paying for the coins i like. you are looking at it in
a different way.
i am not sure i like your way of thinking when it comes to this hobby.
if gold goes down, these coins will also fall in value due to the lack
of interest in them. the market is at a peak and you are basically
setting yourself up for a fall, if gold tanks by a 100 dollars in a week.
the coins you mentioned are common.. right?
but i will continue thinking about your post which is very fun to do.
it should lead to good conversation and thank you for sharing it.
another way to state this concern may be: the only thing holding
up the prices on this common gold is the price of gold itself. if gold
falls the last support for these coins becomes unhigned and the
prices will tumble dramtically.
<< <i>fc:
Indeed the collector/numismatic gold and silver coins I am speaking of are the more common and easily obtained coins that are usually sought after for a type set, a starting set or a non advanced collector set.
Gold coins you seek are generally advanced collector coins and rarely would ever fall prey to bullion pricing (except foreign coins).
Gold coin examples I am speaking of:
(1) $20 Liberties in type I in grades below EF. There were some out there for less than $900. Bullion was $830.
(2) $20 Liberties in type II in grades through AU-58. Prices have risen so fast on the bullion that some dealers have not yet repriced some of their coins above $850-$900.
(3) $20 Liberties such as the 1873 open 3 (also a type II) . I have seen mint state examples still fetching $950.
(4) $20 Liberties in mint state, even up to MS-61/62 are fetching $800 to $850.
(5) $20 Saints up to MS-62/63 are fetching $800 to $850.
(6) $10 Libs up to MS-61 are fetching around $400 to $425.
(7) some rare foreign gold and even platinum coins have been selling for pennies above bullion.
Many other examples of gold coins that were surprisingly scarce and yet sold for essentially bullion. >>
I'd like to see some examples of where "some rare foreign gold and plat coins have been selling for pennies above bullion". As one that follows these things, I have seen the reverse happen. the past couple years have seen the rare foreign gold coins go through the roof compared to the common date Sovereigns, et cetera. Auction results bear this out too.
Your response to fc provided some interesting observations. I need to check out some actual coins and see whether this might be a good time to pick up some bargains!
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
if gold goes down, these coins will also fall in value due to the lack
of interest in them. the market is at a peak and you are basically
setting yourself up for a fall, if gold tanks by a 100 dollars in a week.>>>>>
That is certainly possible. But a collector buying coins for his collection thinks strictly how much premium he is paying over bullion, as long as bullion is not crazily priced. In gold we are not quite there yet but getting closer.
Silver is still reasonable. I bought a nice gem roll of BU gem 1954 quarters at $130. Gorgeous, gorgeous quarters.
This price was LESS than what these quarter rolls sold for in the height of the 2000-2004 statehood quarters frenzy. So in many cases, silver coins are selling for LESS than what they sold for just 5 years ago. Much closer to bullion value than before on top of it.
My favorite example. Wheat cents. $1.25 to $2.00 per roll in circulated condition. These available coins with bullion (not legally meltable at this time) is approaching the numismatic value of the cents. Unlike the gold, if copper prices dropped by 40% in value would not affect the value of these real (starting) collector coins.
These are real bargains today. I am seeing new collectors who are starting to realize this.
i guess i am guilty of this then too. I recently bought a very low
grade pcgs half eagle. 1892-CC for 10 bucks over melt :-)
it has that ugly duckling look i love about circulated gold coins that
have been through the ringer and back yet still gradeable.
or a charlotte half eagle for two times melt.
but after a while the gold content has started to mean less for me.
You just get an idea of what has value and what doesn't
and the price of gold plays a much smaller role.
for example my 1860-S half eagle in VG08. I would not hesitate
to buy that coin for less then 600-750. Same goes for RYK's ex-1866S
with motto half eagle. Super tough coins that gold's current price
really does not budge the collector value one way or the other.
When bullion increases there is no reason for the premium to increase on
items made out of that metal. This happened a little in '79/ '80 but that was
because the profits dealers and collectors made on bullion was largely plowed
back in to numismatic coins. There are less profits this time and these profits
are being put in to what's hot; high grade and premium quality coins.
There are some great bargains to be had in small numismatic premium coins.
Many of these coins that were worth $15 an ounce when silver was at $4 an
ounce just might have even more reason to increase as some are destroyed
for their metallic content. If silver drops from here the premium will reappear
also.
This makes low premium numismatic coins the best means of acquiring silver.
Sell your junk and buy some of these "bargains", but don't look for increasing
premiums until the demand is significantly higher for this than it is for junk. If
it had no reason to rise before silver went up then it has no reason to rise now.
At auctions and bourse tables you will find these foreign bargains. Just yeaterday, Heritage sold a scarce Canadian set of latinum coins for barely over melt. I did not have the heart to bid against the giddy winner as I needed to save my money for the FUN show.
well said. the coins were sitting in inventories, stale as month old
bread, and now only get interest due to hot PM market.
that is my concern for new people.
but one point oreville makes is that this type of pricing may very well
bring in fresh blood which this hobby can always use.
You are absolutely correct.
I never mentioned that purchases of these bargains would be a good investment. But they are still bargains in that you are paying lower numismatic premiums on the coins.
Collectors do not think strictly of the investment angle, that is why they rarely lose money. But indeed, they may not be strong investments.
However, the potential for the numismatic premium to restore itself does exist if bullion prices stabilize for a long time.
Certainly better than buying pure precious metals and low quality ASE and AGE's which are completely subject to the whims of pm prices.
Collector coins with a high pm content stand a slightly better chance of withstanding a fall in pm prices. This pleases collectors as well but is not primary to their decision making.
<< <i>(6) $10 Libs up to MS-61 are fetching around $400 to $425. >>
Where can I buy mint state ten Libs for melt or less than melt. I'd like to buy a few rolls.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Example: A Hallmark graded AU-58 $10 Liberty sold for $400 just a few weeks ago. Already in a PCGS MS-61 holder. It is really a MS-61.
<< <i>But a collector buying coins for his collection thinks strictly how much premium he is paying over bullion... >>
Speaking as a collector and only for myself here, but premium over current bullion value has no effect on my buying decisions.
<< <i>cladking:
You are absolutely correct.
I never mentioned that purchases of these bargains would be a good investment. But they are still bargains in that you are paying lower numismatic premiums on the coins.
Collectors do not think strictly of the investment angle, that is why they rarely lose money. But indeed, they may not be strong investments.
However, the potential for the numismatic premium to restore itself does exist if bullion prices stabilize for a long time.
Certainly better than buying pure precious metals and low quality ASE and AGE's which are completely subject to the whims of pm prices.
Collector coins with a high pm content stand a slightly better chance of withstanding a fall in pm prices. This pleases collectors as well but is not primary to their decision making. >>
I believe silver represents the best long term investment in the ingenuity of the
human race and the welfare of the billions of people on the planet. While I don't
consider coins to be a good investment these particular ones are probably the
very best means to own silver.
There are numerous US and world coins as well as some medals which fit these
parameters very well. I, personally, tend to prefer older US coins in nice circula-
ted condition or more modern world coins in unc but everyone should make both
investment and collecting decisions for himself. There is a lot to be said for BU
rolls of the early '50's onward and nice collectible circulated coins from any era.
Back when people were paying $4 each for beat up Roosy dimes you could pay
just slightly more for nice AU mercs. When the Roosy got down to $.25 you could
trade your AU mercs for seven or eight of them.
Also on this topic, about 2 months ago, I managed to pick up a '57-S double eagle in XF-AU for $735. How'd I do?
<< <i>Perry: You need to look hard. Raw and in the wrong plastic holders. Some dealers and collectors have not had the chance to reprice some of their stuff fast enough. Few in far between but they are out there. Probably no longer at $400 but the $425 is still possible.
Example: A Hallmark graded AU-58 $10 Liberty sold for $400 just a few weeks ago. Already in a PCGS MS-61 holder. It is really a MS-61. >>
I would have loved to buy that Hallmark slab. I never see them in the market place. I imagine most have been cracked out. I'm also in the market for a black insert NGC first generation slab at a less than rediculous markup for the slab.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
an example like that is very very hard to come by. just like perryhall's request for an original
ngc slab. how often does one even see such things? in a blue moon?
but i will not argue your point that there is bargains to be found for a person with a sharp
eye and an understanding of collectable us gold.
but does that include people new to the hobby? won't they just go after the label more
so then the coin itself? thus ending up with mediocre coins for above melt? the first to fall
in price during a downturn in PM or the hobby?
Fine with the quarter roll. No brainer.
But your 1857-S purchase is awesome.
Your example is exactly what I was talking about.
so then the coin itself? thus ending up with mediocre coins for above melt? the first to fall
in price during a downturn in PM or the hobby?>>>>>>
No, the new collectors should be sticking with wheat cents, mercury dimes and similar 20th century collector kind coins. Preferably RAW FIRST!
They need to learn the nuances of raw grading first. Then slowly delve into slabs such as the mercs and walkers in the less expensive grades.
Russ once had the most awesome set of MS-64 walkers I had ever seen. I should have bought them from him.
But a new collector could certainly buy one gold coin as a type coin here and there if he studies them first and gets guidance from a seasoned collector or a reputable dealer.
I did assist a new collector in his purchase of an awesome rattler set of 1941-1947 walkers in PCGS MS-63 from another poster here. he is learning steadily the nuance of grading below and slightly above the safe and low risk level of MS-63. He is having a ball.
There is always an abundance of tubed silver rolls, which may or may not be original - so I stick to what I know as OBW. The reason I like 90% silver OBW rolls is that they provide a potential double whammy - if the bullion doesn't go up, maybe the numismatic premium will. Either way, it does add up.
Funny thing about OBW rolls, after awhile you begin to appreciate what they represent in terms of history, just like other coins.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Any updates since this thread of 5 months ago? Gold and silver shot up some more then settled back a little more. >>
gold coins in the right slabs fetch more then what i paid for them over the last 3 years.
i sold around 25 half eagles and they did well last month.
So if there are bargains to be found i think it must be on the really ugly stuff
because mine did not sell for bargain prices. This is auctions with a .99 start
on ebay.
<< <i> Isn't that like saying gas prices haven't risen because I started driving something that gets twice the fuel economy? >>
Well, that IS INDEED the idea! To look for bottom fishing areas that have gotten "cheaper" in relation to the current price of oil, gold, silver, etc.
Driving a car that gets twice the gas mileage does work as long as too much comfort is not sacrificed. It is better than throwing in the towel and giving up.
As fc said, finding the right coins is not easy. But if it is so easy then where is the fun of the hunt? Just because the price is cheap does not mean it is the right coin/collectible.
<< <i>I think you're looking at this wrong.
When bullion increases there is no reason for the premium to increase on
items made out of that metal. This happened a little in '79/ '80 but that was
because the profits dealers and collectors made on bullion was largely plowed
back in to numismatic coins. There are less profits this time and these profits
are being put in to what's hot; high grade and premium quality coins.
There are some great bargains to be had in small numismatic premium coins.
Many of these coins that were worth $15 an ounce when silver was at $4 an
ounce just might have even more reason to increase as some are destroyed
for their metallic content. If silver drops from here the premium will reappear
also.
This makes low premium numismatic coins the best means of acquiring silver.
Sell your junk and buy some of these "bargains", but don't look for increasing
premiums until the demand is significantly higher for this than it is for junk. If
it had no reason to rise before silver went up then it has no reason to rise now. >>
Although finances haven't allowed recently, thats exactly what I've been doing the last 3 years. Not so much with Franklins (was only able to buy a couple rolls of these around melt) but 64 OBW Kennedys, & late date silver OBW & tubed rolls of dimes & quarters from just under melt to just over. I figured that if the bottom fell out of the Ag market that maybe these would retain a little more value.
Just a good way to save silver IMO. Moreover, if Ag goes up enough, I can bust the rolls & search for high grades and errors before selling them for bullion. Also bought alot 40% OBW rolls below melt.
Regards, John
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
I bought a few Hallmarks (Franklins) cheap on eBay before the new TPG rules went into effect. Since then I've found only one.
Regards, John
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
But the premiums on certified gold coins have shot upwards. They are no longer the bargains they were this past January.
Time to sell?
Comments?
Premiums didn't correct. They shot up because it's friggin' crazy out there. Expect them to drop back sometime soon.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>10 months later and gold bullion prices are not all that different now versus January (although silver and platinum are much lower).
But the premiums on certified gold coins have shot upwards. They are no longer the bargains they were this past January.
Time to sell?
Comments? >>
They are not the same bargains they were in January but I am still buying PCGS certified gold with money I don't mind locking up for some years. Except for the Charlotte and Dahlonega issues I view quarter eagles (my interest) with PCGS populations of less than 60 (in all grades) as bargains at current prices.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
March of Time - 27 Centuries in Gold
https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/WCM/CoinCustomSetView.aspx?s=36590