If a depression was so bad that you could buy a loaf of bread for five cents... I'd be fat !
At just about any park I go to with my metal detector, I could find 20 loafs of bread an hour in modern pocket change.
So the moral of the story is, ever since the constraints of any sort of gold standard were removed in 1974, depression is no longer possible. Severe "stagflation" is the worst that can happen (and that is pretty bad in general, but probably good for bullion prices).
Major rarities are in a different class...they will only continue to go up in value IMO regardless of the economy. The rich never really feel the hardships the way the middle class or poor will.
History disproves this.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Maybe everyone will get out the old change jars and coins from dressers etc. So we might find more wheaties and silver coins in circulation and without a job I'll have more time to do some roll searching.
<< <i>Well, all the signs are there. GDP growth of 4.9% in the 3rd quarter, low inflation, low interest rates, job growth every month, federal deficit declining...It's terrible. Sell, Forrest, sell. >>
<< <i>Well, all the signs are there. GDP growth of 4.9% in the 3rd quarter, low inflation, low interest rates, job growth every month, federal deficit declining...It's terrible. Sell, Forrest, sell. >>
pharmer! >>
Well Mike, if this economy is what the doom and gloomers call recession/depression, I think we'll do just fine, hmm?
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
80% of the worlds toys are made in china and that is good for America.
80% of shoes are made in China and that is good for America.
60% of all textiles are made in China and that is good for America.
Most all of our clothing are made in Poland, Bangladesh, Viet Nam and China and that is good for America.
Most all of our furniture is made in China and Viet Nam and that is good for America.
China is about to make cars in China and market then in the US. That is also good for America.
Most of Americas service call centers are located in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and that must be good for America. I can't understand them and they make me spell everything. That is also good.
With all of these low priced foreign goods selling at Wal Mart, low taxes, high paying jobs falling from trees, security in owning our own homes and gas cheaper then bottled water,
<------I Might have to part with my precious Arkansas nickel!
I tend to agree with the OP. Keys and other truly "rare" coins will always maintain their value. In a recessed/depressed economy, the abundant stuff will drop as the buyers for these items (middle class folk like me) will be selling off their holdings or trading them for basic needs. But I don't think we'll ever see the extremes experienced during the Great Depression. In the 70's we experienced stagflation and hyper-inflation. Both bad for the economy, but stagflation even worse.
Chicken-Little-scenario-pushers need to realize that the United States is the largest market in the world. As the U.S. economy goes, so does the rest of the planet. I remember in the 80's everyone was concerned that Japan would become the great economic giant by the millenium in the book: The Coming Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe and America. One excerpt from that book that I will paraphrase: "if the top 10 corporations in the world were countries, 5 of them would have a GDP greater then all of the nations in the world; all 5 corporations are U.S. global companies!". Also at that time, the U.S. Defense buget was greater than the next 19 countries' defense budgets combined!
These doomsday scenarios are very premature. But there are some serious deficiencies in this country from education to the federal debt to huge trade deficits to global warming that we should be concerned about today, IMHO.
We also need to be concerned with the outsourcing of our middle class jobs to foreign nations as Bear has already posted. A wealthy nation with a healthy economy and good-paying jobs to support a bourgoining middle-class will keep this nation prosperous and safe. Wealth is needed to maintain both prosperity and the ability to pay for a defense.
"Please help us keep these boards professional and informative…. And fun." - DW --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONGO HURTLES ALONG THE RAIN SODDEN HIGHWAY OF LIFE ON UNDERINFLATED BALD RETREAD TIRES
Bottom Line? The assumption is correct, thanks to the WallStreet Bankers and the 'smart guys' not counting on the probability that there is NO Market for the rolled up no-down payment home loans and 2nd's, WE WILL go into a significant recession, followed by a depression. They are now attempting to inflate us out of this, but it won't work.
"Amity Shlaes has written an enormously important book. She offers abundant evidence that both the Republican Hoover and the Democrat Roosevelt unwittingly worsened the Great Depression. They opted for policies preventing the economic system from self-correcting. These two American leaders foolishly relied on the advice of elites infatuated with the Soviet Union. They essentially thought that the graduates of our best schools should manage the country. To be blunt, the elites were supposed to be our benevolent dictators.
Pay particular attention to Shlaes analysis of the Schechter brothers' confrontation with intellectual thugs associated with Harvard University. The author never mentions the vastly overrated works of Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. Nonetheless, The Forgotten Man is something of a direct attack on the late historian's less than admirable scholarship. Did Franklin D. Roosevelt save our nation? He admittedly may have done so in our fight against the fascists during WW II. Roosevelt's attempts to manage the American economy, however, almost destroyed our democratic institutions. The road to hell is sadly often paved with good intentions. We should learn form history---and never let this happen again. Regular citizens must be willing to check and balance the behavior of those most inclined toward arrogant ego-tripping and power seeking. The Forgotten Man deserves three cheers. You should obtain a copy immediately"
This is one of the most stupid posts I have EVER seen. Maybe a basic economics lesson is in order. Maybe we have a Ron Paul Mooorooon that predicts the end to life as we know it. WTF??????
Best part of a recession is employees hang on to their jobs - turnover is expensive.
People appreciate their jobs and bosses.
Housing prices drop and I can actually get people to move to Seattle to take a job.
The people that sell worthless junk go out of business.
People learn what's really important - family, faith, etc.
The pace of life slows down and we can relax a bit.
People barter - no income to report - less taxes.
People get creative and hungry - start to innovate and become creative, developing new ideas.
We give California to the Chinese, solve that deficit and get rid of a infrastructure/political burden.
Bottom line, it's a cycle that's not necessarily destructive. If you believe in evolution, look at it as a creative force that brings out the best and results in survival of the fittest.
PS - And I can, tongue in cheek, buy more coins at a better price.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
"If WWIII is fought with nuclear missiles, then WWIV will be fought with stones" - Einstein
"Please help us keep these boards professional and informative…. And fun." - DW --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONGO HURTLES ALONG THE RAIN SODDEN HIGHWAY OF LIFE ON UNDERINFLATED BALD RETREAD TIRES
Only if it's a MAD war (mutually assured destruction). The ideal goal is no WW3 or WW(n).
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
You ain't kidding. You don't know how attached I am to that copper nickel!
"Please help us keep these boards professional and informative…. And fun." - DW --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONGO HURTLES ALONG THE RAIN SODDEN HIGHWAY OF LIFE ON UNDERINFLATED BALD RETREAD TIRES
C-Lt - what's your interpretation of the article??
Looks like more of the same to me - buy on bad news, etc.
"My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
<< <i>John I am prepared. I have 6 dozen jelly donuts
and two 6 packs of Sam Adams bock beer stashed away
just in case. >>
ATTA BEAR !!
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly."
good article on this. Says to stock up on bullion and rare coins
Schultz sees an apocalypse now Commentary: Veteran editor declares 'A financial tsunami is upon us' By Peter Brimelow, Market Watch Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Dec. 13, 2007
NEW YORK (Market Watch) -- The Fed flops and Wall Street is worried. But one letter veteran has been here before, not that it makes him any cheerier. Occasionally, I get reader emails claiming that The International Harry Schultz Letter's Harry Schultz is dead. He himself insists in an email to me that he is still alive. But he must be well over 80 now, although he's always been mysterious about his age. I notice that that he's now listed as "editor emeritus," although the letter is still written in his characteristically quirky first-person voice. Alive or not, Schultz must feel like he's been resurrected. Systemic financial fears, dollar doubts, gold gains, seeping stagflation - a word Schultz claims he coined - all eerily replicate the 1970s, which he began as a derided crank and ended victorious over the financial establishment. (After which, significantly, he was notably quick to say the storm had passed). Shultz's latest letter, just in, is absolutely apocalyptical: "A financial tsunami is upon us," he says, caused by lax credit and complications introduced by Wall Street's derivatives craze. Among other interesting ideas raised by Schultz in his intense, somewhat terrifying introduction: recession, possibly depression; bank failures; exchange controls; housing prices down by 50%; credit card company failures; money market fund dangers; tripling of U.S. jobless numbers; federal bail-outs for Fannie Mae (FNM:Fannie Mae Last: 32.12-2.17-6.33%
FNM 32.12, -2.17, -6.3%) and Freddie Mac (FRE:Freddie Mac Last: 30.42-0.89-2.84%
His advice, translated out of his shorthand style: "If you have not already done so, take immediate measures to safeguard your assets against the global derivative crisis ... Most urgent is close out time deposits, buy non-U.S. government bonds." In other words, Schultz is saying the U.S. banking system is threatened. How's that for a Christmas greeting?
Schultz says "the second biggest danger is owning U.S. dollars in any form, (it) has crashed and going much lower ... use dollar rallies to exit dollars or sell short ... This is not a time to seek profits, but to protect what U have ... Portfolio diversification is essential in troubled times." Schultz's favored currencies: "In order of preference: Swiss Franc, Australian dollar, Euro, Canadian dollar." Schultz is a trader and his specific market advice is nuanced. He writes: "Direction of global stock markets uncertain. Balance stock holdings between long and shorts to counterbalance draw-down risks, and/or hedge exposure via puts, futures, or bear funds ... Exposure to gold shares and bullion should be a minimum of 35-45% of your total portfolio, with at least 10% in physical gold bullion and coins, and/or very rare coins ... "
On gold, he writes: "The public is still not in the gold market. They will be in 2008 as the derivatives and credit crises bring down more financial institutions (amid recession) and eyes will be opened, via pain. While Rome burns, gold will smash through its old unadjusted-for-inflation $850 high on the way to $1,600, & who knows how far beyond ..."
Schultz is still buying a few stocks. His top pick for December: Terra Nitrogen Co. LP, (TNH:Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. Last: 127.36+0.50+0.39% But he recommends buying when and if the stock closes above $130 on two consecutive days. Amid the apocalyptic advice, Schultz finds time to dispense some other helpful hints. Avoid fluoride. Cell phones may cause cancer. Sauerkraut makes for a healthier prostate. Use faxes for all financial transactions. Give money to Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul on his Dec. 16 Boston Tea Party anniversary fundathon. In case you're wondering, Schultz is up 21.42% over the past 12 months according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, vs. 7.51% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the past five years, Schultz is up a remarkable 34.38% annualized vs. 12.85% annualized for the DJW. Not so easy to dismiss.
They see fundamentals that are way out of whack, they write articles on "the dogged bull" relating and reinforcing their own skewed rationalizations in order to keep people in the market.
Bottom line is that you have to have credit to keep the ball rolling and the Fed is really trying to make the credit monster wake up. They might even succeed again, but it will be short lived.
They have two choices. Lower interest rates and print the dollar or back out and let the correction happen that should have happened already.
Pretty obvious which one they have chosen. Either way the best we can do is a severe recession IMO.
The one problem with permabears and people who frequently call apocalypse scenarios is that some day they will be right, and people will look at them as geniuses even though this was the 12th time they said the sky was falling and only the first time they were correct.
It's like the old saying goes -- economists have correctly called ten of the last three recessions.
I think the writting was on the wall since gold started bouncing hard off $260. You know most of these people don't know when but most have said by 2012 so just because it's being repeated every year doesn't mean it's a new prediction IMO. After all the "Sky if Falling" is a claim by those that don't believe we can never hit another "Great Depression". It's not the end of the world or the sky is falling simply a cycle of bad choices by the goverment and hard times which if you still have your capitol in the middle of it could make you very wealthy just like those that invested durning the depression.
I guess the real choice here is do you believe the stock market will continue it's big rise or will it turn around and correct. With world growth and demand for oil, steel, paper, wood ect. there's places you could park money instead of gold and silver since this cycle is strong.
<< <i>Well, all the signs are there. GDP growth of 4.9% in the 3rd quarter, low inflation, low interest rates, job growth every month, federal deficit declining...It's terrible. Sell, Forrest, sell. >>
Might as well outsource our military to them also. >>
Depending on who gets in next November our military may wear blue helmets.
Ren >>
The next president won't "get in" until Jan 2009.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The economy has weathered this crisis and won't slip into recession yet. However, around next summer all bets are off. Recessions are inevitable being part of the normal economic cycle, and currently overdue looking at historical trends.
The coming recession will be deepened by the Democrats in Congress raising taxes at exactly the wrong moment and by derivates, which no one fully understands the impact of. It'll probably be 2010 before the mess is straightened out, and the economy is growing again.
They see fundamentals that are way out of whack, they write articles on "the dogged bull" relating and reinforcing their own skewed rationalizations in order to keep people in the market.
Bottom line is that you have to have credit to keep the ball rolling and the Fed is really trying to make the credit monster wake up. They might even succeed again, but it will be short lived.
They have two choices. Lower interest rates and print the dollar or back out and let the correction happen that should have happened already.
Pretty obvious which one they have chosen. Either way the best we can do is a severe recession IMO.
John >>
I would agree with you. It is obvious which way the Fed is moving and will do everything to downplay and keep things afloat until November and let the next shlub deal with "debt-exuberance". One day, We The People, will have to pay for all of this debt through continuing dollar devaluation, inflation, stagflation, recession, or depression. I don't know which or what combo but it doesn't look good to me.
As far as Doom and Gloom: The Hundred Years war in the 14th century, Black Plague, Potato Famine, being a French soldier at Waterloo, War between the States, WW's and possible nuclear anihilation...now that's D&G. What we have now is a correction of affluence misguided. Through easy credit a lot of people are up to their eyeballs in debt. Like the commercial where the guy rides the mower says "I'm in debt to my eyeballs, can somebody please help me." Actually a very funny commercial.
Bottom line is some people bought the American Dream that didn't fundamentally qualify and WE will have to pay for it. I would think that when that happens our economy will dramatically slow.
<< <i>Assuming we go into a significant recession, followed by a depression.... >>
I will up the dose of my Lexapro
Sure, we want to go home. We want this war over with. The quickest way to get it over with is to go get the bastards who started it. The quicker they are whipped, the quicker we can go home. - General George S. Patton
<< <i>The one problem with permabears and people who frequently call apocalypse scenarios is that some day they will be right, and people will look at them as geniuses even though this was the 12th time they said the sky was falling and only the first time they were correct.
It's like the old saying goes -- economists have correctly called ten of the last three recessions. >>
Well said. The economy has been so good for so long, and it can't last forever. Never has. Just don't get so wrapped up in wishing for the bad old days that you miss the good ones you're currently in
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Comments
I'd be fat !
At just about any park I go to with my metal detector, I could find 20 loafs of bread an hour in modern pocket change.
So the moral of the story is, ever since the constraints of any sort of gold standard were removed in 1974,
depression is no longer possible. Severe "stagflation" is the worst that can happen (and that is pretty bad in general,
but probably good for bullion prices).
Recession
Depression
WW 3 over water, food, oil
Human kind totally wiped out
Dominant life form on planet
will be bears.
Camelot
History disproves this.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Maybe everyone will get out the old change jars and coins from dressers etc. So we might find more wheaties and silver coins in circulation and without a job I'll have more time to do some roll searching.
Box of 20
Keith, you were a good boy this year..thanks for answering the question.
siliconvalleycoins.com
Box of 20
<< <i>Well, all the signs are there. GDP growth of 4.9% in the 3rd quarter, low inflation, low interest rates, job growth every month, federal deficit declining...It's terrible. Sell, Forrest, sell. >>
pharmer!
Box of 20
<< <i>
<< <i>Well, all the signs are there. GDP growth of 4.9% in the 3rd quarter, low inflation, low interest rates, job growth every month, federal deficit declining...It's terrible. Sell, Forrest, sell. >>
pharmer!
Well Mike, if this economy is what the doom and gloomers call recession/depression, I think we'll do just fine, hmm?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
if global warming don't kill us!
THE SKY IS FALLING...THE SKY IS FALLING.... IT HIT ME IN THE HEAD!
Global warming is causing the ice storms.
80% of the worlds toys are made in china
and that is good for America.
80% of shoes are made in China and that is good for
America.
60% of all textiles are made in China and that is good for
America.
Most all of our clothing are made in Poland, Bangladesh,
Viet Nam and China and that is good for America.
Most all of our furniture is made in China and Viet Nam and
that is good for America.
China is about to make cars in China and market then in the US.
That is also good for America.
Most of Americas service call centers are located in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh
and that must be good for America. I can't understand them and they make me spell
everything. That is also good.
With all of these low priced foreign goods selling at Wal Mart, low taxes, high paying
jobs falling from trees, security in owning our own homes and gas cheaper then bottled water,
WHAT"S TO WORRY ABOUT. This is Heaven on Earth.
Camelot
Camelot
<< <i>...what do you think will be the positives for you as a coin collector? >>
I'll still be looking at my coins.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I tend to agree with the OP. Keys and other truly "rare" coins will always maintain their value. In a recessed/depressed economy, the abundant stuff will drop as the buyers for these items (middle class folk like me) will be selling off their holdings or trading them for basic needs. But I don't think we'll ever see the extremes experienced during the Great Depression. In the 70's we experienced stagflation and hyper-inflation. Both bad for the economy, but stagflation even worse.
Chicken-Little-scenario-pushers need to realize that the United States is the largest market in the world. As the U.S. economy goes, so does the rest of the planet. I remember in the 80's everyone was concerned that Japan would become the great economic giant by the millenium in the book: The Coming Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe and America. One excerpt from that book that I will paraphrase: "if the top 10 corporations in the world were countries, 5 of them would have a GDP greater then all of the nations in the world; all 5 corporations are U.S. global companies!". Also at that time, the U.S. Defense buget was greater than the next 19 countries' defense budgets combined!
These doomsday scenarios are very premature. But there are some serious deficiencies in this country from education to the federal debt to huge trade deficits to global warming that we should be concerned about today, IMHO.
We also need to be concerned with the outsourcing of our middle class jobs to foreign nations as Bear has already posted. A wealthy nation with a healthy economy and good-paying jobs to support a bourgoining middle-class will keep this nation prosperous and safe. Wealth is needed to maintain both prosperity and the ability to pay for a defense.
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BONGO HURTLES ALONG THE RAIN SODDEN HIGHWAY OF LIFE ON UNDERINFLATED BALD RETREAD TIRES
History repeats itself, again.
Read "The Forgotten Man" by Amity Shales
How High Taxes and Unrelenting Spending will Destroy Us
It ain't Georges Fault either, Tax Cuts Work It has been proven 4 times in the last 100 Years, yet the ones who want your money keep up the lies
"Amity Shlaes has written an enormously important book. She offers abundant evidence that both the Republican Hoover and the Democrat Roosevelt unwittingly worsened the Great Depression. They opted for policies preventing the economic system from self-correcting. These two American leaders foolishly relied on the advice of elites infatuated with the Soviet Union. They essentially thought that the graduates of our best schools should manage the country. To be blunt, the elites were supposed to be our benevolent dictators.
Pay particular attention to Shlaes analysis of the Schechter brothers' confrontation with intellectual thugs associated with Harvard University. The author never mentions the vastly overrated works of Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. Nonetheless, The Forgotten Man is something of a direct attack on the late historian's less than admirable scholarship. Did Franklin D. Roosevelt save our nation? He admittedly may have done so in our fight against the fascists during WW II. Roosevelt's attempts to manage the American economy, however, almost destroyed our democratic institutions. The road to hell is sadly often paved with good intentions. We should learn form history---and never let this happen again. Regular citizens must be willing to check and balance the behavior of those most inclined toward arrogant ego-tripping and power seeking. The Forgotten Man deserves three cheers. You should obtain a copy immediately"
Life is starting to . . .
I am NOT a Ron Paul loony. The guy is an ass.
I am more entrepreneur then you will ever imagine, believe me.
Don't be as ignorant and close minded as your post alludes.
<< <i>Here is the schedule:
Recession
Depression
WW 3 over water, food, oil
Human kind totally wiped out
Dominant life form on planet
will be bears. >>
Cool, Bears need Trees
People appreciate their jobs and bosses.
Housing prices drop and I can actually get people to move to Seattle to take a job.
The people that sell worthless junk go out of business.
People learn what's really important - family, faith, etc.
The pace of life slows down and we can relax a bit.
People barter - no income to report - less taxes.
People get creative and hungry - start to innovate and become creative, developing new ideas.
We give California to the Chinese, solve that deficit and get rid of a infrastructure/political burden.
Bottom line, it's a cycle that's not necessarily destructive. If you believe in evolution, look at it as a creative force that brings out the best and results in survival of the fittest.
PS - And I can, tongue in cheek, buy more coins at a better price.
<< <i>We give California to the Chinese, solve that deficit and get rid of a infrastructure/political burden. >>
I suppose that means I may wind up working in a Trade Dollar and fake slab manufacturing plant.
CG
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BONGO HURTLES ALONG THE RAIN SODDEN HIGHWAY OF LIFE ON UNDERINFLATED BALD RETREAD TIRES
Only if it's a MAD war (mutually assured destruction). The ideal goal is no WW3 or WW(n).
why not let them make our money too.
Might as well outsource our military to them also.
Camelot
I love it when people call other people stupid, yet offer no value to the post, no insight, really no thought whatsoever.
I would like to hear why you think I am stupid.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
Hope the Navy isn't killing you with work.
Camelot
<< <i>Griv,
I love it when people call other people stupid, yet offer no value to the post, no insight, really no thought whatsoever.
I would like to hear why you think I am stupid.
John >>
It's best not to engage with the semi-troll-like, John
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
siliconvalleycoins.com
and two 6 packs of Sam Adams bock beer stashed away
just in case.
Camelot
siliconvalleycoins.com
Sucks to be you.
PS - just kidding.
<< <i>DieClash:
Sucks to be you.
PS - just kidding.
You ain't kidding. You don't know how attached I am to that copper nickel!
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BONGO HURTLES ALONG THE RAIN SODDEN HIGHWAY OF LIFE ON UNDERINFLATED BALD RETREAD TIRES
Looks like more of the same to me - buy on bad news, etc.
at least 6 times. However, I can smell the fear in Governments,
as one fix after another fails to stem the tide. It seems as if folks
in the know are trying to hold thinks together long enough for
the big boys to bail out. As usual the little guy is gonna take it
in the shorts. Remember, their is light at the end of the tunnel. We
just don't seem to know where that part of the tunnel might be located.
Camelot
<< <i>John I am prepared. I have 6 dozen jelly donuts
and two 6 packs of Sam Adams bock beer stashed away
just in case. >>
ATTA BEAR !!
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
Schultz sees an apocalypse now
Commentary: Veteran editor declares 'A financial tsunami is upon us'
By Peter Brimelow, Market Watch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Dec. 13, 2007
NEW YORK (Market Watch) -- The Fed flops and Wall Street is worried. But one letter veteran has been here before, not that it makes him any cheerier.
Occasionally, I get reader emails claiming that The International Harry Schultz Letter's Harry Schultz is dead. He himself insists in an email to me that he is still alive. But he must be well over 80 now, although he's always been mysterious about his age. I notice that that he's now listed as "editor emeritus," although the letter is still written in his characteristically quirky first-person voice.
Alive or not, Schultz must feel like he's been resurrected. Systemic financial fears, dollar doubts, gold gains, seeping stagflation - a word Schultz claims he coined - all eerily replicate the 1970s, which he began as a derided crank and ended victorious over the financial establishment. (After which, significantly, he was notably quick to say the storm had passed).
Shultz's latest letter, just in, is absolutely apocalyptical: "A financial tsunami is upon us," he says, caused by lax credit and complications introduced by Wall Street's derivatives craze.
Among other interesting ideas raised by Schultz in his intense, somewhat terrifying introduction: recession, possibly depression; bank failures; exchange controls; housing prices down by 50%; credit card company failures; money market fund dangers; tripling of U.S. jobless numbers; federal bail-outs for Fannie Mae (FNM:Fannie Mae Last: 32.12-2.17-6.33%
FNM 32.12, -2.17, -6.3%) and Freddie Mac (FRE:Freddie Mac Last: 30.42-0.89-2.84%
His advice, translated out of his shorthand style: "If you have not already done so, take immediate measures to safeguard your assets against the global derivative crisis ... Most urgent is close out time deposits, buy non-U.S. government bonds."
In other words, Schultz is saying the U.S. banking system is threatened. How's that for a Christmas greeting?
Schultz says "the second biggest danger is owning U.S. dollars in any form, (it) has crashed and going much lower ... use dollar rallies to exit dollars or sell short ... This is not a time to seek profits, but to protect what U have ... Portfolio diversification is essential in troubled times."
Schultz's favored currencies: "In order of preference: Swiss Franc, Australian dollar, Euro, Canadian dollar."
Schultz is a trader and his specific market advice is nuanced. He writes: "Direction of global stock markets uncertain. Balance stock holdings between long and shorts to counterbalance draw-down risks, and/or hedge exposure via puts, futures, or bear funds ... Exposure to gold shares and bullion should be a minimum of 35-45% of your total portfolio, with at least 10% in physical gold bullion and coins, and/or very rare coins ... "
On gold, he writes: "The public is still not in the gold market. They will be in 2008 as the derivatives and credit crises bring down more financial institutions (amid recession) and eyes will be opened, via pain. While Rome burns, gold will smash through its old unadjusted-for-inflation $850 high on the way to $1,600, & who knows how far beyond ..."
Schultz is still buying a few stocks. His top pick for December: Terra Nitrogen Co. LP, (TNH:Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. Last: 127.36+0.50+0.39% But he recommends buying when and if the stock closes above $130 on two consecutive days.
Amid the apocalyptic advice, Schultz finds time to dispense some other helpful hints. Avoid fluoride. Cell phones may cause cancer. Sauerkraut makes for a healthier prostate. Use faxes for all financial transactions. Give money to Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul on his Dec. 16 Boston Tea Party anniversary fundathon.
In case you're wondering, Schultz is up 21.42% over the past 12 months according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, vs. 7.51% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the past five years, Schultz is up a remarkable 34.38% annualized vs. 12.85% annualized for the DJW.
Not so easy to dismiss.
I inerpret it in the following manner.
They see fundamentals that are way out of whack, they write articles on "the dogged bull" relating and reinforcing their own skewed rationalizations in order to keep people in the market.
Bottom line is that you have to have credit to keep the ball rolling and the Fed is really trying to make the credit monster wake up. They might even succeed again, but it will be short lived.
They have two choices. Lower interest rates and print the dollar or back out and let the correction happen that should have happened already.
Pretty obvious which one they have chosen. Either way the best we can do is a severe recession IMO.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
It's like the old saying goes -- economists have correctly called ten of the last three recessions.
I guess the real choice here is do you believe the stock market will continue it's big rise or will it turn around and correct. With world growth and demand for oil, steel, paper, wood ect. there's places you could park money instead of gold and silver since this cycle is strong.
<< <i>
<< <i>Well, all the signs are there. GDP growth of 4.9% in the 3rd quarter, low inflation, low interest rates, job growth every month, federal deficit declining...It's terrible. Sell, Forrest, sell. >>
pharmer!
...should have been "Sell, Phorrest, Sell"
Ren
<< <i>Since China already owns our debt
why not let them make our money too.
Might as well outsource our military to them also. >>
Depending on who gets in next November our military may wear blue helmets.
Ren
<< <i>
<< <i>Since China already owns our debt
why not let them make our money too.
Might as well outsource our military to them also. >>
Depending on who gets in next November our military may wear blue helmets.
Ren >>
The next president won't "get in" until Jan 2009.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
around next summer all bets are off. Recessions are inevitable being part of the normal
economic cycle, and currently overdue looking at historical trends.
The coming recession will be deepened by the Democrats in Congress raising taxes at exactly the
wrong moment and by derivates, which no one fully understands the impact of. It'll probably
be 2010 before the mess is straightened out, and the economy is growing again.
Free Trial
<< <i>TL,
I inerpret it in the following manner.
They see fundamentals that are way out of whack, they write articles on "the dogged bull" relating and reinforcing their own skewed rationalizations in order to keep people in the market.
Bottom line is that you have to have credit to keep the ball rolling and the Fed is really trying to make the credit monster wake up. They might even succeed again, but it will be short lived.
They have two choices. Lower interest rates and print the dollar or back out and let the correction happen that should have happened already.
Pretty obvious which one they have chosen. Either way the best we can do is a severe recession IMO.
John >>
I would agree with you. It is obvious which way the Fed is moving and will do everything to downplay and keep things afloat until November and let the next shlub deal with "debt-exuberance". One day, We The People, will have to pay for all of this debt through continuing dollar devaluation, inflation, stagflation, recession, or depression. I don't know which or what combo but it doesn't look good to me.
As far as Doom and Gloom: The Hundred Years war in the 14th century, Black Plague, Potato Famine, being a French soldier at Waterloo, War between the States, WW's and possible nuclear anihilation...now that's D&G. What we have now is a correction of affluence misguided. Through easy credit a lot of people are up to their eyeballs in debt. Like the commercial where the guy rides the mower says "I'm in debt to my eyeballs, can somebody please help me." Actually a very funny commercial.
Bottom line is some people bought the American Dream that didn't fundamentally qualify and WE will have to pay for it. I would think that when that happens our economy will dramatically slow.
Ren
<< <i>Assuming we go into a significant recession, followed by a depression.... >>
I will up the dose of my Lexapro
<< <i>The one problem with permabears and people who frequently call apocalypse scenarios is that some day they will be right, and people will look at them as geniuses even though this was the 12th time they said the sky was falling and only the first time they were correct.
It's like the old saying goes -- economists have correctly called ten of the last three recessions. >>
Well said. The economy has been so good for so long, and it can't last forever. Never has. Just don't get so wrapped up in wishing for the bad old days that you miss the good ones you're currently in
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."