Hey Saintguru-- do you agree that the Saint market is not hot and presents some buying opportunitie
Longacre
Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
Sainty-- I was reading through the exclusive Doug Winter quarterly newsletter that I just received. It is very good, and he describes some areas of the coin market which are "hot", and some which are "not hot". It looks like the Saint market in 63-65 received a "not hot" vote. Here is the excerpt from the article. Is this merely a buying opportunity, rather than a "not hot" market?
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Three areas that are not hot right now are as follows:
Rare date St. Gaudens double eagles in MS63 to MS65. This was a very strong area in the market in 2005 and 2006 but a number of factors have conspired to slow this market segment down since the Morse sale. This includes a relative glut of coins, cash flow issues with some high end collectors, inconsistent grading standards and more. I look for these situations to resolve themselves by the end of the year and a few new high end collectors are likely to start sets of Saints.
Ugly, overgraded coins. No matter the date or type, coins with poor eye appeal are hard to sell right now; even to price-conscious buyers. This sounds simple and obvious but until recently there were a number of “bottom feeder” dealers who you could always count on to buy your “swill.” This is no longer the case.
Traditionally unpopular series. If a coin was unpopular in 2007, the chances are good it will remain so in 2008. Lower quality San Francisco and Philadelphia gold from the 1850’s through the 1870’s remains a very tough sell and gold commemoratives (with the notable exception of the Pan-Pac Octagonal and Round $50 pieces) are slow as well.
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Three areas that are not hot right now are as follows:
Rare date St. Gaudens double eagles in MS63 to MS65. This was a very strong area in the market in 2005 and 2006 but a number of factors have conspired to slow this market segment down since the Morse sale. This includes a relative glut of coins, cash flow issues with some high end collectors, inconsistent grading standards and more. I look for these situations to resolve themselves by the end of the year and a few new high end collectors are likely to start sets of Saints.
Ugly, overgraded coins. No matter the date or type, coins with poor eye appeal are hard to sell right now; even to price-conscious buyers. This sounds simple and obvious but until recently there were a number of “bottom feeder” dealers who you could always count on to buy your “swill.” This is no longer the case.
Traditionally unpopular series. If a coin was unpopular in 2007, the chances are good it will remain so in 2008. Lower quality San Francisco and Philadelphia gold from the 1850’s through the 1870’s remains a very tough sell and gold commemoratives (with the notable exception of the Pan-Pac Octagonal and Round $50 pieces) are slow as well.
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
0
Comments
The problem is most look like garbage for the grade. It's hard to find examples that are a specific grade due to hairlines instead of nicks and gouges.
The market soared into and at the Oct. '05 Morse sale and continued to go up throughout the summer of 2006. It peaked and showed some rather unusual weakness at FUN 2007. Since then there's been very few RARE DATE GEM Saints, but those that were available were on the whole, great bargains in my opinion. Now I admit that I'm going to say that since I bought 4 of them and I am extremely pleased by buying into weakness.
I once quoted the great investment sage, Ben Graham in another thread, "Buy straw hats in January." It is so applicable in markets like this when there are a few coins that are truly worthy and yet there's no buyers. It's like buying a dollar for 70 cents! I'll do that all day long. Especially when you're talking pop2-10 coins. They may be a tad weak but they aren't being minted again.
The one point of Doug's that I think is the most profound and applicable is that there has been a void of new collectors in the Saint market. Two years ago there were at least 6 buyers competing for every good coin that popped up. Every coin was hotly contested. I also agree with Doug that there are going to be some fresh faces in the near future and they have money! Saints are always $$ expensive...we know that. They will get weak easier, but less coins will show up. On the other hand, when the market gets good I've seen them go up 25% from one show to another. Over and over.
I still refuse to buy this OVERGRADING THING, at least when it comes to better dates! There are practically NO poorly graded rare Saints. I'm talking anything $$50/100K and up.....way up. Yeah, there are some generic 1924/27's that were graded too liberally, but that's not the Saint market. We are talking "collectable" coins, not generic type coins. Wait until FUN. Anyone who gets a chance and is interested should look at the better Saints Heritage will have in the "Jacob Collection.". They are properly graded and many are spectacular. It's VERY, VERY hard to get a rare Saint upgraded no matter how nice it is ,so the isea that the great dates are not properly graded is nonsense. To get an MS64 upgraded to an MS65 the coin has to virtually be a 65.3! There's no leniency with these coins. Trust me...I have quite a few that are grossly undergraded.
This was a buying opportunity. Whether or not it still is shall be seen. I hope NOT!!
Young Numismatist ............................ and growing!
I wrote paragraphs and stuff....
myCCset
Just glad I was not on the other side.
You might not know much, but I sincerely believe you know Saints.
<< <i>Nope I think you are completely backwards. You should fill the rest of your set with overgraded ugly for the grade stuff.
That may be harder than you think. Are you still drinking Sperburger KoolAde?
<< <i>
<< <i>Nope I think you are completely backwards. You should fill the rest of your set with overgraded ugly for the grade stuff.
That may be harder than you think. Are you still drinking Sperburger KoolAde?
Only when she has a coin I like in my price range.
Loved your article. Saints are my favorite U.S. coin design of all time, but I've always been afraid to buy any because of my profound ignorance. Would you be so kind as to suggest a few dates/mints for a beginner in the $2,000 or so range? i.e. coins that may be overlooked? Or is this just wishful thinking...
Thanks!
<< <i>SG,
Loved your article. Saints are my favorite U.S. coin design of all time, but I've always been afraid to buy any because of my profound ignorance. Would you be so kind as to suggest a few dates/mints for a beginner in the $2,000 or so range? i.e. coins that may be overlooked? Or is this just wishful thinking...
Thanks! >>
I think his expertise would be in the 20K+ range.
<< <i>that's IT??
I wrote paragraphs and stuff....
I simply could not add anything else to your post.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>We are talking "collectable" coins, not generic type coins. >>
Interesting. I didn't realize common date Saints weren't "collectable". Thanks for the info, SG.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>We are talking "collectable" coins, not generic type coins. >>
Interesting. I didn't realize common date Saints weren't "collectable". Thanks for the info, SG. >>
Excuse my terrminology. By "collectable" I was referring to Saint collectors who are crafting collections. A 1920-something MS66 is a common date, easily found in volume at any show, and more of a function of the spot gold market that any other factor.
Owning one is fantastic for any collector and to diminish these beautiful coins would be a faux-pax...so consider my label poetic license.
<< <i>2K is basic Genericville. You can get a NICE MS66 for around $2500....but look at a number of them and only buy PCGS. >>
Thanks SG! I appreciate the feedback. You've planted a seed, or a nugget, should say!
I loved that coin.
I still grade it a 67.8! Glad you still have it.
I have not seen that coin since I imaged it and it's still the best Saint I can remember seeing!! You got what I consider to be one of the best in Jay's set! Great seeing that again.
Harlan J. Berk, Ltd.
https://hjbltd.com/#!/department/us-coins
<< <i>that's IT??
I wrote paragraphs and stuff....
Wow Jay....what insight, what knowledge, such wisdom........
Seriously though...nice well written paragraph, with true insight and experience.
<< <i>Lloyd & Jay,
I have not seen that coin since I imaged it and it's still the best Saint I can remember seeing!! You got what I consider to be one of the best in Jay's set! Great seeing that again. >>
Best as in condition, of course! It was. Although rememember the 1928, Mike? Do you still have that one? Duckor bought it....and he PAID, baby!! Beaucoups dollares, Duuudes.
Ah yeah, this one Jay? This coin was ok, but I can't believe Duckor bought it...I mean he has a good eye and all so why this coin
Edited for stupidity and hitting enter too early
Harlan J. Berk, Ltd.
https://hjbltd.com/#!/department/us-coins
<< <i>...and only buy PCGS. >>
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Isn't that the one Duckor got upgraded to a 69 and turned down a $250,000 profit on?
Harlan J. Berk, Ltd.
https://hjbltd.com/#!/department/us-coins
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
<< <i>That was the 28 SG wanted to dip I believe. K >>
here's YOUR dip, pal.