I am all in for the big purge!!!!

keets · October 9, 2007 4:46AM

The "big purge" would be the end result of a severe downward plunge in the coin market, but make no mistake, I don't really see anything like that happening anywhere in the near future. All that considered, I think it'd be worth a loss to my collection's value for the overall hobby to slide, thus eliminating all the BS Grading Services that have sprung up to suck money from everyone, all the recent start-up ideas like "stickering" to suck money from everyone, all the Auction Houses that have sprung to suck money from everyone, all the crap dumped onto the hobby by the Mint to suck money from everyone, all the dis-reputable dealers/sellers who try to suck money from everyone, all the AT'ing etc. done to suck money from everyone...................well, you get the idea, there's just too much sucking going on lately.

Let the purge begin!!!!! Please.

Al H.

IGWT · October 9, 2007 4:49AM

Ross Perot and NAFTA come to mind.

keets · October 9, 2007 4:50AM

Ha!!!!!!!!!! believe it or not i almost posted that at the end of the paragraph-----------Here I go, suckin' air!!!!

Bear · October 9, 2007 4:59AM

Excess creates the means,

for it's own destruction.

Pentimento · October 9, 2007 5:00AM

I can't wait for the big purge! Even if it happens 50 years from now it will be awesome. I think I'll collect early copper...

Bear · October 9, 2007 5:05AM

Splurge....then purge. The history of every excess!

GritsMan · October 9, 2007 5:11AM

YES, I'M IN!

Then, finally, my first spouse bronze medals will skyrocket. Oh, wait a minute, maybe not...

keets · October 9, 2007 5:16AM

strangely, the old saying about not learning from the past and being doomed to repeat it is so, so true for us. i especially like the slippery slpoe the Mint is trying to climb to the top of. personally, i sold off all my Mint products around 2002-3 and now only cherrypick sets from the 1950's-the mid-70's, all but ignoring anything that's released. we were talking the other day about how many pieces will be included in a Mint Set in the years to come and it's staggering that more programs are suggested/approved/undertaken/supported!!!!!!

bumanchu · October 9, 2007 5:24AM

Ahem, .......I believe all coins are Mint products.....

keets · October 9, 2007 5:34AM

Ahem..........don't be daft, i think you know what i'm talking about.

jamakin · October 9, 2007 5:44AM

I have found buying what one likes is the best way to collect.
In buying diretly from the mint when I see something I like it saves me the trouble of worrying about scammers and insane mark ups.
Whether someone else likes my choices really doesn't matter, it's my collection.
I have also read enough posts about what people don't collect and how they think it's all crap to make me wonder why they feel the need to knock another collectors preference.

This is a fun hobby and not matter what level one collects at or what one focuses on I see no reason to dis others.

WaterSport · October 9, 2007 6:05AM

I think that the lack of forum post concerning the Long Beach show is our first indication values will start downward soon. Some feel it indicates a lack of material for sale not that the market is being economically impacted by bigger things. Overall, if you’re realistic about your purchases, and not a value guide zealot, a drop will not harm you. Those that buy coins purely as an investment that will squeal first. High end material dumped on the market will be the next clue. Sure, buyers will buy it up and in the confusion everyone will say the market is still strong. Next will be individual key coins in all series further knocking down prices followed by a profusion of widgets and whole collections. My guess is the FUN show in January will not be fun at all for many. Anyone want to bet me a beer on this?

WS

Bear · October 9, 2007 6:08AM

You heard it here first folks.

PLOP!

USAFRETWI · October 9, 2007 6:21AM

I would love to see both the coin and metals markets dive so I can buy more!!!!!!

IrishMike · October 9, 2007 8:08AM

Soon others will be clued in about the never ending mint releases, but I will miss all the threads about what number is your order, got my FS, ASE sets, here is the latest ebay prices, will an NGC 70 cross, there really is a difference between 70's and 69's, the first strike yada yada's, my kids can tell the difference, my latest search through 3 million 82 proof sets, etcetera etc., ad nauseum etc. What ever will we talk about.

Anyway Keets I did the same thing you did only in 2000. Edited to add how can I forget the coinboy analyses of the plat market.

jhdfla · October 9, 2007 8:23AM

<< I think that the lack of forum post concerning the Long Beach show is our first indication values will start downward soon. Some feel it indicates a lack of material for sale not that the market is being economically impacted by bigger things. Overall, if you’re realistic about your purchases, and not a value guide zealot, a drop will not harm you. Those that buy coins purely as an investment that will squeal first. High end material dumped on the market will be the next clue. Sure, buyers will buy it up and in the confusion everyone will say the market is still strong. Next will be individual key coins in all series further knocking down prices followed by a profusion of widgets and whole collections. My guess is the FUN show in January will not be fun at all for many. Anyone want to bet me a beer on this?

I think Long Beach has been on a downward trend for some time and would not use this single show as a barometer for a correction. FUN this year I predict will at least be as strong as last year, even though I would welcome a correction as an opportunity, don't think it's going to happen any time soon... of course this advice is worth exactly what it cost, ie. nothing...

John

TwoSides2aCoin · October 9, 2007 8:52AM

Everyone gotta a "you suck" award with Al's post , except me

razzle · October 9, 2007 12:03PM

Jamakin wrote:

<< I have found buying what one likes is the best way to collect.
In buying diretly from the mint when I see something I like it saves me the trouble of worrying about scammers and insane mark ups.
Whether someone else likes my choices really doesn't matter, it's my collection.
I have also read enough posts about what people don't collect and how they think it's all crap to make me wonder why they feel the need to knock another collectors preference.

This is a fun hobby and not matter what level one collects at or what one focuses on I see no reason to dis others. >>

Nice sentiments, nicely said.

CarlWohlforth · October 9, 2007 12:10PM

A purge as dramatic as that might just turn collecting coins into a hobby like collecting stamps!

If it happens I might buy a few pieces...

Swampboy · October 9, 2007 12:22PM

I saw the thread title and thought keets might

have scheduled an A.M. colonoscopy.

DUIGUY · October 9, 2007 1:44PM

<< I saw the thread title and thought keets might

have scheduled an A.M. colonoscopy.

>>

I'm ROLLING !!

Myqqy · October 9, 2007 1:46PM

Soon others will be clued in about the never ending mint releases, but I will miss all the threads about what number is your order, got my FS, ASE sets, here is the latest ebay prices, will an NGC 70 cross, there really is a difference between 70's and 69's, the first strike yada yada's, my kids can tell the difference, my latest search through 3 million 82 proof sets, etcetera etc., ad nauseum etc. What ever will we talk about.

Good question. Of course, there really IS a difference between 69 and 70....

rooksmith · October 9, 2007 1:52PM

Looks like a slight upturn in the last few weeks, but the trend, my friends, is down.

rooksmith · October 9, 2007 1:54PM

By the way - I agree with the prblem on the mint turning out too many coins. (not too many varieties - too many coins...)

RYK · October 9, 2007 1:58PM

That graph makes the decline in the index look dramatic. In fact, a drop from 66500 to 65600 (represented by the blue line) is just a tad over one percent!

DUIGUY · October 9, 2007 2:08PM

<< By the way - I agree with the prblem on the mind turning out too many coins. (not too many varieties - too many coins...) >>

prblem on the mind ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, DUDE , I gots da same prblem !!

MidLifeCrisis · October 9, 2007 2:09PM

<< That graph makes the decline in the index look dramatic. In fact, a drop from 66500 to 65600 (represented by the blue line) is just a tad over one percent! >>

Good point. Let's keep things in perspective.

That said, I do like this quote:

<< The "big purge" would be the end result of a severe downward plunge in the coin market, but make no mistake, I don't really see anything like that happening anywhere in the near future. All that considered, I think it'd be worth a loss to my collection's value for the overall hobby to slide... >>

I would view a "big purge" such as this as a welcome opportunity to buy! I trust that the long term value of my collection will continue to rise, but coins in general are just really expensive nowadays and I think much of that price increase is artificial...especially over the last 2-3 years.

lkenefic · October 9, 2007 2:54PM

I've been seeing prices on certain type coins I'm interested in dropping...others seem to be on a rollercoaster ride..this at least from Heritage. A deeper look into this reveals that problem coins sold for less than Numismedia Wholesale in some cases and nice no-problem coins still garnered strong hammer prices.

I've also been looking at two key dates recently...1877 IHC and 1909-S VDB. The prices on these remain strong..even over PCGS retail after one auction for a G6 1877 ($805 with juice). I've also been looking at Seated Lib Dollars for type...again, nice and no problems go quickly.... decent with few problems still sell...but the problem children (harshly cleaned, etc...) just sit.

The bottom line...I'm seriously thinking of waiting to make big purchases (at least big for me... $800-$1000 is a bunch of money for me to spend on one coin) and put the money into a CD or something. The way I see things, only one of three things can happen. 1- the market stays the same; 2-it goes down; 3-it goes up. So in six months, there's a 66% chance that the market will either be the same or be down. Simplistic, yes. But I think alot of markets are on the brink.

Leo

CoinKing1969 · October 9, 2007 2:57PM

The old saying " It is only worth what sombody is willing to pay for it". I have seen price guides worshiped like the Bible. I have seen coins sell much higher than any price sheets. I don't think the purge would effect these guys, just the price guide worshipers.

rooksmith · October 10, 2007 1:38AM

You got me on the last graphic -- the 3 month trend is down. Here is the long haul picture, in which you have to agree... coins are not in a bubble or a depression (compared to other assets)..

Short turn secular trends are buying opportunities in stock markets, same with collectibles. But markets are less liquid, because sellers are forced to find buyers in order to sell.

IMHO, As long as there are new buyers in the market (typical of bull cycles), things should increase. What I'm more worried about is that the "nintendo" crowd will ignore coins and stamps altogether. In this scenario you might be looking at a 30 year decline.

rooksmith · October 15, 2007 5:08PM

Ok - This is my last post on this thread. The "big purge" happened. In 1989. And we are still at the bottom of the curve. (See my previous post) - all markets are either bull or bear. And the steeper the climb, the steeper the fall. No danger of that happening in rare coins especially key dates and rarities. (excluding the latest fads of course)...

I am all in for the big purge!!!!

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