<< <i>gold was the only means to keep nations in check from confiscating the wealth of the average citizen
I only have one thing to say about that, roadrunner. "Hillary Clinton" >>
You guys are worried about China now? Wait till she's in charge. They're gonna want a return on their campaign contributions. And remember, a vote for Ron Paul or Hillary puts Hillary in the White House.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<<It's better to present the best 20 yr history of stocks in our nation's history as the model for all future 20 yr periods.>> It included the WORST bear market in our history - April 2000 through July 2002.
To suggest that April 2000-July 2002 was the worst bear market in history is ludicrous at best...and does a grave disservice to those who lived through the greast depression. The early 1930's makes today (...at least so far) look like a cake-walk. 2000-2002 wasn't even a bear market unto itself, it was rather a brief but sharp down cycle within a secular bear market. The 1930's stock drop involved all classes of stock. The NASDAQ got blasted sure enough in 1999-2001, but after most of the smart money was long gone. The average guy took the fall by hanging for years longer hoping for the "promised" recovery that never came. How many 401K's were salted heavily with Nasdaq science and tech funds? Plenty!
I'd bet if you look at stock history, you'll find bigger drops in the DOW in the 60's, 70's or other periods that fared worse that 2000-2002 DOW/S&P. After briefly hitting 7500 the DOW rebounded fairly quickly via FED interest rate drop liquidity infusions. The depression was eventually "cured" by involvement in WW2 and gearing up the war machine which ultimately shifted over to consumer goods. It took until 1954 for the stock market high of 1929 to be reached again......25 long years. And that doesn't even figure in inflation adjusted dollars.
The 60-80% stock drop in the 1930's is hardly comparable to the 40% drop that occurred by 2002. The time lengths are much different as well. Maybe 2002 ended the worst bear market in "Lloyd's" history, but surely not in the USA's nor in mine.
Yes, this IS a coin forum. I'll post one of my saints. It is up in value because of DEMAND and BEAUTY, NOT because of the price of gold going up, (not generic) or an inflation hedge or protection against the dollar.
Look again. Your hi-relief saint has risen in price SOLELY in response to a weakening dollar and strengthening of gold.....due to a large increase in the money supply over the past 11 years (ie true inflation). There is absolutely no reason for it to have changed in price because of pure collector demand and artistic beauty. Most coin increases in the past 50-60 years are from post-war inflation/Bretton Woods era. Exceptions to that rule might be moderns, but not high reliefs. Investors, dealers and speculators helped to double the price of those prior to May 2006. There wasn't much art and beauty in the doubling and price...95% speculation and inflation driven demand....maybe 5% beauty/appreciation. The specs took something in large enough supply (same for Indian gold) and ran it up, up, up......then dumped. They can't pick something like No Motto $5/$10 gold in MS64 or 65 because there is no supply, yet they cost the same or less than a high relief.
While I like Lloyd's version of the world better, I have to live and get by in the real world. According to many, a hi-relief is indeed generic. With 11,000 minted, and many of those saved in higher grades of Mint State (pops around 6000+ betw both services) they are certainly available if you want one. I like the coin but have never matched availability with price at the right time. As a matter of fact saw a nice PCGS MS65 HR today at my local shop of all places but at $40Kish bid level, it's still not the right time. Yours is a nice coin and I'd love to have one...someday.
Increasing the money supply at a 10% year over year rate will lead to the euro and yuan being the world's currencies and demote us to 2nd world status, won't it?
No...because the Euro, Yuan, and other major currencies are all inflating their currencies at > 10% yoy. They are beating us at our own insane game. Russia is winning the race with 50% yoy with China second at around 20%. We are mere children in this race to devalue our currencies. Those other G8 and G15 nations won't be duped by being paid back with cheap dollars as their's will be even cheaper......gotta love it...gold is moving up against most all major currencies. Though I think the Canadians are maintaining their composure.
One thing is for sure......there is not enough "Toilet Gold" to go around. Toilet Silver is even scarcer.
<< <i>Your hero, Greenspan, actually said during an official fed speech that people would be wise to go out and get an ARM. This was in 2005. Do some research before you claim he is such a genius. Are you so angry because you listened to him and got an ARM when interest rates were at 40 year lows and only had one way to go? Are you one of those boomers who thought you were going to retire a millionaire because you were such a brilliant real estate investor? Guess what sparky, this X-er is not going to bail out someone who overpaid for a McMansion >>
Greenspan's recommendations with respect to ARMs applied to those who expected to sell their house within a few years. He has 30 year fixed himself. This based on a radio interview with Terr Gross last week. Personally, have 15 year fixed a 4.365%. My biggest regret is not getting a 15 year fixed when I first bought my place. I would have had to have tightened my belt and foregone some fancy trips etc but I would have paid off the place by now.
As far as the Gen Xers are concerned, they are going to find out about Malthusian economics. Where are they going to live? One child may get a deal from his or her parents to purchase his parents house when they down size, but what about his siblings? It will take some time for these college age kids to get into the housing market, but it is coming. The ohter problem for the Gen Xers is going to be how to support their aging parents who outlive their money.
<<The 60-80% stock drop in the 1930's is hardly comparable to the 40% drop that occurred by 2002. The time lengths are much different as well. Maybe 2002 ended the worst bear market in "Lloyd's" history, but surely not in the USA's nor in mine. >>
Sorry Brian, I meant to say LONGEST bear market.
1929 the DOW went down 83% from its high. OUCH and HORRIBLE!!!! BUT...
Rules are different today then back then. 1929, you could purchase 10 shares of stock, and only putting up themoney for ONE> Yes, a margin of 10%. Today, it is 2 to 1, or 50%. Furthermore, only the WEALTHY were buying stocks back then. The top 5% wealthiest owned 98% OF ALL STOCK IN 1929!!!! Today, it is much more spread out.
Rules today make it LESS VOLATILE/RISKY (for lack of better terms - yes still risky) than today.
AND DOOMSDAYERS - if you DO believe the stock market is going to go down the tubes, you can put your money where your mouth is. PLENTY of BEAR MARKET funds available today that trade INVERSLY of the Dow, SP500 etc.
As far as the Gen Xers are concerned, they are going to find out about Malthusian economics. Where are they going to live? One child may get a deal from his or her parents to purchase his parents house when they down size, but what about his siblings? It will take some time for these college age kids to get into the housing market, but it is coming. The ohter problem for the Gen Xers is going to be how to support their aging parents who outlive their money.
CG >>
The math is on the side of the X-ers. There are twice as many boomers as X-ers. Simple supply and demand dictates that there are more sellers than buyers so the prices will drop. And if X-ers have to support their parents they will have even less money to buy some boomer's mcmansion, hence even lower prices.
That argument might be valid if the U.S. population was shrinking (like Russia and some other European countries). Last time I checked the population in this country was still going up. All those immigrants (legal and otherwise) have to live someplace!
<< <i>There are twice as many boomers as X-ers. Simple supply and demand dictates that there are more sellers than buyers so the prices will drop >>
Perhaps my nomenclature was wrong. If the Xers are those born after 1960, they are already in the housing market. In fact they have been bid contriubtors to the run up in housing prices. The demographic group I am talking about is the children of the Baby Boomers who will be entering the market over the next 5 to 15 years.
Factor in immigration as well.
Where are all of these people and their families going to live?
RR please explain. There are a lot of negative economic indicators coming to light, the UAW just went on strikce (which actually might be good for GM in the short run since they are sitting on inventory) and the impact of the decline in new housing starts will filter through the related industries (building supplies, mortgage companies, furniture etc). Consumer confidence is down and the dollar is not likely rebound over night. The impact of $80 oil has not yet been felt.
I am the child of a baby boomer and we are already in our 30s. Bought my first house when I was 29. Boomer kids already deal in houses!
If you want to buy houses that will not decrease significantly in value, don't buy in california, buy in places californians like to move to!
The references to people as "lowlifes" that got into ARMs and spent their equity is entertaining to me.
Your theories are entertaining at best, it is very easy to read something and repost it somewhere else meanwhile deeming yourself an expert. Have you actually thought about any of this with your own brain?
RR please explain. There are a lot of negative economic indicators coming to light, the UAW just went on strikce (which actually might be good for GM in the short run since they are sitting on inventory) and the impact of the decline in new housing starts will filter through the related industries (building supplies, mortgage companies, furniture etc). Consumer confidence is down and the dollar is not likely rebound over night. The impact of $80 oil has not yet been felt.
I read a lot from both sides of the aisle and it just seems to me that the stock market going further makes sense. Cliff Droke seems to be one of the best contrarian callers around and from my point of view he seems to be right just when about everyone else is wrong. He and others use contrarian sentiment to forecast market turns. He picked the market to turn back near 13,000 this summer. He expects it to last a while (possibly 14K to 16K). While I don't buy his newsletter or even take his advice, I temper it against the pro-gold guys. There are several like Droke whose opinion I value. Sol Palha is another. At times their anti-gold calls during run-ups have ticked me off. They couldn't be right......but in the end they usually were. When they go pro-gold or pro-stock I pay attention. Droke's calls are often as simple as scanning a newpaper for the number of negative sentiments. If the negs far outweigh the pluses, he anticipates a reversal as when sentiment is too far in one direction it indicates the end of the trend. He has been right way too often using this simple rule. Wish I had that skill.
I also concur that lots of fresh liquidity will spur the markets over the longer term. Anything can happen short term.
<< <i>There are twice as many boomers as X-ers. Simple supply and demand dictates that there are more sellers than buyers so the prices will drop >>
Perhaps my nomenclature was wrong. If the Xers are those born after 1960, they are already in the housing market. In fact they have been bid contriubtors to the run up in housing prices. The demographic group I am talking about is the children of the Baby Boomers who will be entering the market over the next 5 to 15 years.
Factor in immigration as well.
Where are all of these people and their families going to live?
CG >>
NAR stats just released show 4.58 million houses for sale in the U.S. All these people can live there, that's an immense amount of houses for sale. I'm sure all those illegal immigrant farm workers can buy those $700,000 houses from the boomers so they can retire in style.
<< <i>How many house flippers ( who aren't buried) have started buying stocks instead of real estate. I guess plenty. >>
Not very many. Most house flippers used no money down loans to buy investment properties. You can't buy stocks with no money down. The best you can do is a 2 to 1 margin, but you still need to actually have some money.
I do agree the market will continue to go up in the short term and am long stocks currently. The fed will probably lower again and there are a number of institutional investors driving up the market. Joe 6 pack could completely stay out of the market at this point and it would still go up as long as banks, insurance companies and pension funds continue to invest. Eventually the market will drop significantly but that will be 6-18 months from now.
I do agree the market will continue to go up in the short term and am long stocks currently. The fed will probably lower again and there are a number of institutional investors driving up the market.
Your guess is as good as any but since the 2008 is an election is right around the bend I believe they did on big cut before 2008. The Fed usually tries to maintain stability in an election year and trys not to effect the election outcome.
Housing bubble possibly but it also because the dollar has lost half of its purchasing power in just a few years. This also is causing house prices to escalate.
Comments
<< <i>gold was the only means to keep nations in check from confiscating the wealth of the average citizen
I only have one thing to say about that, roadrunner. "Hillary Clinton" >>
You guys are worried about China now? Wait till she's in charge. They're gonna want a return on their campaign contributions. And remember, a vote for Ron Paul or Hillary puts Hillary in the White House.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
It included the WORST bear market in our history - April 2000 through July 2002.
To suggest that April 2000-July 2002 was the worst bear market in history is ludicrous at best...and does a grave disservice to those who lived through the greast depression. The early 1930's makes today (...at least so far) look like a cake-walk. 2000-2002 wasn't even a bear market unto itself, it was rather a brief but sharp down cycle within a secular bear market. The 1930's stock drop involved all classes of stock. The NASDAQ got blasted sure enough in 1999-2001, but after most of the smart money was long gone. The average guy took the fall by hanging for years longer hoping for the "promised" recovery that never came. How many 401K's were salted heavily with Nasdaq science and tech funds? Plenty!
I'd bet if you look at stock history, you'll find bigger drops in the DOW in the 60's, 70's or other periods that fared worse
that 2000-2002 DOW/S&P. After briefly hitting 7500 the DOW rebounded fairly quickly via FED interest rate drop liquidity infusions.
The depression was eventually "cured" by involvement in WW2 and gearing up the war machine which ultimately shifted over to consumer goods. It took until 1954 for the stock market high of 1929 to be reached again......25 long years. And that doesn't even figure in inflation adjusted dollars.
The 60-80% stock drop in the 1930's is hardly comparable to the
40% drop that occurred by 2002. The time lengths are much different as well. Maybe 2002 ended the worst bear market in "Lloyd's" history, but surely not in the USA's nor in mine.
roadrunner
Look again. Your hi-relief saint has risen in price SOLELY in response to a weakening dollar and strengthening of gold.....due to a large increase in the money supply over the past 11 years (ie true inflation). There is absolutely no reason for it to have changed in price because of pure collector demand and artistic beauty. Most coin increases in the past 50-60 years are from post-war inflation/Bretton Woods era. Exceptions to that rule might be moderns, but not high reliefs. Investors, dealers and speculators helped to double the price of those prior to May 2006. There wasn't much art and beauty in the doubling and price...95% speculation and inflation driven demand....maybe 5% beauty/appreciation. The specs took something in large enough supply (same for Indian gold) and ran it up, up, up......then dumped. They can't pick something like No Motto $5/$10 gold in MS64 or 65 because there is no supply, yet they cost the same or less than a high relief.
While I like Lloyd's version of the world better, I have to live and get by in the real world. According to many, a hi-relief is indeed generic. With 11,000 minted, and many of those saved in higher grades of Mint State (pops around 6000+ betw both services)
they are certainly available if you want one. I like the coin but have never matched availability with price at the right time. As a matter of fact saw a nice PCGS MS65 HR today at my local shop of all places but at $40Kish bid level, it's still not the right time. Yours is a nice coin and I'd love to have one...someday.
Increasing the money supply at a 10% year over year rate will lead to the euro and yuan being the world's currencies and demote us to 2nd world status, won't it?
No...because the Euro, Yuan, and other major currencies are all inflating their currencies at > 10% yoy. They are beating us at our own insane game. Russia is winning the race with 50% yoy with China second at around 20%. We are mere children in this race to devalue our currencies. Those other G8 and G15 nations won't be duped by being paid back with cheap dollars as their's will be even cheaper......gotta love it...gold is moving up against most all major currencies. Though I think the Canadians are maintaining their composure.
One thing is for sure......there is not enough "Toilet Gold" to go around. Toilet Silver is even scarcer.
roadrunner
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Your hero, Greenspan, actually said during an official fed speech that people would be wise to go out and get an ARM. This was in 2005. Do some research before you claim he is such a genius. Are you so angry because you listened to him and got an ARM when interest rates were at 40 year lows and only had one way to go? Are you one of those boomers who thought you were going to retire a millionaire because you were such a brilliant real estate investor? Guess what sparky, this X-er is not going to bail out someone who overpaid for a McMansion >>
Greenspan's recommendations with respect to ARMs applied to those who expected to sell their house within a few years. He has 30 year fixed himself. This based on a radio interview with Terr Gross last week. Personally, have 15 year fixed a 4.365%. My biggest regret is not getting a 15 year fixed when I first bought my place. I would have had to have tightened my belt and foregone some fancy trips etc but I would have paid off the place by now.
As far as the Gen Xers are concerned, they are going to find out about Malthusian economics. Where are they going to live? One child may get a deal from his or her parents to purchase his parents house when they down size, but what about his siblings? It will take some time for these college age kids to get into the housing market, but it is coming. The ohter problem for the Gen Xers is going to be how to support their aging parents who outlive their money.
CG
40% drop that occurred by 2002. The time lengths are much different as well. Maybe 2002 ended the worst bear market in "Lloyd's" history, but surely not in the USA's nor in mine. >>
Sorry Brian, I meant to say LONGEST bear market.
1929 the DOW went down 83% from its high. OUCH and HORRIBLE!!!! BUT...
Rules are different today then back then. 1929, you could purchase 10 shares of stock, and only putting up themoney for ONE> Yes, a margin of 10%. Today, it is 2 to 1, or 50%. Furthermore, only the WEALTHY were buying stocks back then. The top 5% wealthiest owned 98% OF ALL STOCK IN 1929!!!! Today, it is much more spread out.
Rules today make it LESS VOLATILE/RISKY (for lack of better terms - yes still risky) than today.
AND DOOMSDAYERS - if you DO believe the stock market is going to go down the tubes, you can put your money where your mouth is. PLENTY of BEAR MARKET funds available today that trade INVERSLY of the Dow, SP500 etc.
Go for it.
CG >>
The math is on the side of the X-ers. There are twice as many boomers as X-ers. Simple supply and demand dictates that there are more sellers than buyers so the prices will drop. And if X-ers have to support their parents they will have even less money to buy some boomer's mcmansion, hence even lower prices.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
<< <i>There are twice as many boomers as X-ers. Simple supply and demand dictates that there are more sellers than buyers so the prices will drop >>
Perhaps my nomenclature was wrong. If the Xers are those born after 1960, they are already in the housing market. In fact they have been bid contriubtors to the run up in housing prices. The demographic group I am talking about is the children of the Baby Boomers who will be entering the market over the next 5 to 15 years.
Factor in immigration as well.
Where are all of these people and their families going to live?
CG
At least for the next 6 months.
roadrunner
CG
San Diego, CA
If you want to buy houses that will not decrease significantly in value, don't buy in california, buy in places californians like to move to!
The references to people as "lowlifes" that got into ARMs and spent their equity is entertaining to me.
Your theories are entertaining at best, it is very easy to read something and repost it somewhere else meanwhile deeming yourself an expert. Have you actually thought about any of this with your own brain?
San Diego, CA
The references to people as "lowlifes" that got into ARMs and spent their equity is entertaining to me.
To be fair, the lowlife's are the ones with the sob story and who have to have someone else pay their bills.
I read a lot from both sides of the aisle and it just seems to me that the stock market going further makes sense. Cliff Droke seems to be one of the best contrarian callers around and from my point of view he seems to be right just when about everyone else is wrong.
He and others use contrarian sentiment to forecast market turns. He picked the market to turn back near 13,000 this summer. He expects it to last a while (possibly 14K to 16K). While I don't buy his newsletter or even take his advice, I temper it against the pro-gold guys. There are several like Droke whose opinion I value.
Sol Palha is another. At times their anti-gold calls during run-ups have ticked me off. They couldn't be right......but in the end they usually were. When they go pro-gold or pro-stock I pay attention.
Droke's calls are often as simple as scanning a newpaper for the number of negative sentiments. If the negs far outweigh the pluses, he anticipates a reversal as when sentiment is too far in one direction it indicates the end of the trend. He has been right way too often using this simple rule. Wish I had that skill.
I also concur that lots of fresh liquidity will spur the markets over the longer term. Anything can happen short term.
roadrunner
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>There are twice as many boomers as X-ers. Simple supply and demand dictates that there are more sellers than buyers so the prices will drop >>
Perhaps my nomenclature was wrong. If the Xers are those born after 1960, they are already in the housing market. In fact they have been bid contriubtors to the run up in housing prices. The demographic group I am talking about is the children of the Baby Boomers who will be entering the market over the next 5 to 15 years.
Factor in immigration as well.
Where are all of these people and their families going to live?
CG >>
NAR stats just released show 4.58 million houses for sale in the U.S. All these people can live there, that's an immense amount of houses for sale. I'm sure all those illegal immigrant farm workers can buy those $700,000 houses from the boomers so they can retire in style.
<< <i>How many house flippers ( who aren't buried) have started buying stocks instead of real estate. I guess plenty. >>
Not very many. Most house flippers used no money down loans to buy investment properties. You can't buy stocks with no money down. The best you can do is a 2 to 1 margin, but you still need to actually have some money.
I do agree the market will continue to go up in the short term and am long stocks currently. The fed will probably lower again and there are a number of institutional investors driving up the market. Joe 6 pack could completely stay out of the market at this point and it would still go up as long as banks, insurance companies and pension funds continue to invest. Eventually the market will drop significantly but that will be 6-18 months from now.
Your guess is as good as any but since the 2008 is an election is right around the bend I believe they did on big cut before 2008. The Fed usually tries to maintain stability in an election year and trys not to effect the election outcome.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>Don't fret! Hillary will fix it all in '09!!!! >>
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>Once the housing market goes down the toilet gold will skyrocket! >>
Wow, what's "toilet gold"?
<< <i>
<< <i>Once the housing market goes down the toilet gold will skyrocket! >>
q]
Housing and gold can move in opposite directions--as we've seen the past several months--probably little correlation.
oil/gold correlates well. dollar/gold inversely.
Box of 20