I do not know where you live but the housing prices in the midwest did not go up to crazy prices and will not fall to crazy prices. All the places that had 100%+ gains in value can afford to drop, on wall street this is called a correction. I am holding off buying a new house until late next year when I can use my inflated money to buy a house in a recession if I get lucky. Please do not tell me about a recession coming, I live in Michigan and we have been in one for4 years and my house value has gone up by 30% if you believe the tax man.
<< <i>I do not know where you live but the housing prices in the midwest did not go up to crazy prices and will not fall to crazy prices. All the places that had 100%+ gains in value can afford to drop, on wall street this is called a correction. I am holding off buying a new house until late next year when I can use my inflated money to buy a house in a recession if I get lucky. Please do not tell me about a recession coming, I live in Michigan and we have been in one for4 years and my house value has gone up by 30% if you believe the tax man.
Jim >>
it is somewhat relative whether you live in in a desirable area of the United States or the midwest (pun intended but nothing personal)
I just had to throw my 2 cents in. Im a lot older than a lot of the people on here but younger than some and have seen good times and bad times. In the early 50s gas was in the 18 - 30 cent range and wages were in the $40.-50.00 a week range. Fast forward to today... gas is in the $3.00 range but wages are in the $400.-500 a week range. I wish someone would tell me why everyone says " those were to good old days". The more things change the more they stay the same. I built my house in 1985 for around $60,000. Today its worth around $225,000. Should have sold it 3 yrs ago, bought $350.00 gold and moved to a tropical island. Feel free to disagree with anything I have said here. Im just an old curmudgen anyway.
There will be a mess but it won't be a depression. Ben wrote his masters on how the depression could have been avoided and he is already showing us how. You simply inflate the money supply and it washes away all sins. Cut a $9 trillion debt in half but cutting its value in half.
Of course the side affect is prices at 3-10 times where they started but thats the price to be paid.
Also keep in mind this is a US recession and MS65 coins are US collectables. My guess is they will slide like all collectables when money gets tight. Gold itself is international and should be a much better bet. Both will be better than Ben Franklins.
Yawn - I've heard all this sky is falling stuff for thirty years - before our "newbies"were even born. The housing bubble is primarily restricted to the Northeast, California, and parts of Texas and Florida. The rest of the country - the housing market has been either flat or just some steady but slight increases. Down here in South Carolina (where I escaped from NY), there have slow or moderate increases in housing prices and most of my neighbors have fixed-rate mortgages. My next-door neighbor is a home building contractor and he says business is fine. The overheated areas are just having a correction.
Of course, everyone should have a balanced portfolio - just like buying insurance on your house, life and automobile. However, I would much rather put aside a little bit in the way of guns, food, booze and toilet paper rather than gold.
Why? - well, if the apocalypse does arrive, you A) can't protect yourself with gold (well, I suppose you could hit the robber with your gold brick), you can't eat it, C) you can't drink it (in hard times, booze will be very popular) and D) you can't wipe your @$$ with it.
Have fun hiding in the hills with your stash of gold, boys!
However, I would much rather put aside a little bit in the way of guns, food, booze and toilet paper rather than gold.
Why? - well, if the apocalypse does arrive, you A) can't protect yourself with gold (well, I suppose you could hit the robber with your gold brick), you can't eat it, C) you can't drink it (in hard times, booze will be very popular) and D) you can't wipe your @$$ with it.
Have fun hiding in the hills with your stash of gold, boys!
<< <i>Of course, everyone should have a balanced portfolio - just like buying insurance on your house, life and automobile. However, I would much rather put aside a little bit in the way of guns, food, booze and toilet paper rather than gold. >>
No reason you can't do all that and stash away a bit of a hoard in metals as well. Though I personally prefer silver as far as ROI.
No, I don't see any apocalypse coming either, but some economic hard times do seem rather likely.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I knew the housing market was going to be in trouble when my brother in law qualified for a $200k loan, zero down, was making $15 an hour and was 120 days out of bankruptcy. As for gold, I'm glad to see it moving, I have been invested since 1999 in some quantity, I knew that it couldn't stay that low just by the inflation factor. I think gold is reasonibly priced currently and should see a big upswing and then settle around the current price.
<< <i>Always have to be suspiscious of those people with only 78 posts!!! You really dont know what your talking about until you have at least 124 posts!!!
Jeff >>
LOL. Wonder how many caught on to the irony of that post's credibility.
Have fun hiding in the hills with your stash of gold, boys!
It sure beats hiding out in the hills with a stash of worthless FRN's. But you can also burn them in your camp fire...can't do that with gold.
Even in the worst of times, gold is desired for transactions. Please show me a time in recorded history that gold was not valued, not accepted and universally shunned. Start with the Egyptians....and you can end with the Weimar Republic or current Zimbabwe.
<< <i>Most people listened to the "experts" who had a vested interest in real estate prices rising. I looked at the situation and thought prices rising 20% per year or more was unsustainable. >>
No, most people did not do this. What really happened is that some first time home buyers took a risk given the opportunity to purchase a house at a high price but with a very low interest loan. Do you really think you're some brilliant economic whiz because you came to the same conclusion as most people who were talking about the housing bubble? For your information, Alan Greenspan was bemoaning the housing bubble for years, and was trying to use monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion that existed. Since you are so much more astute than Alan Greenspan, kindly tell us how you would have tailored monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion without putting a dent in economic growth.
<< <i> Age has less to do with it than you think. Alan Greenspan, 81, recently said he did not see the subprime mortgage meltdown coming. He had access to more insider information than almost anyone on the planet and he couldn't predict what was going to happen? I am much younger than him and have been preaching doom&gloom about the housing market since 2004. Sometimes age and experience just make you arrogant and unable to think outside the box. >>
Alan Greenspan an Elitist who figured he can dazzle you with his brilliance but all along was baffling you with bullshut...!!! >>
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
[The Fed will lower rates again to bail out his buddies in wall street at the expense of the average citizen.
I believe what they are doing is bailing out everyone who streched beyond their means. Yes, the housing market had gotten ridiculous and Congress should have put in laws to restrict foolish speculation but they didn't. Now the great disciplinarian, the market, is laying down the law. I don't think it necessarily needs to be a blood bath. With cool heads we can weather this. Those who might want to fan the flames for political benefit are dispicable and are not helping people keep their homes.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>Congress should have put in laws to restrict foolish speculation >>
-the same congress that called for loosening lending practices to allow for more home ownership? >>
It is a charitable goal to try to get more people into their own home but if you ignore reality to do it then you are foolish. I think Congress has earned it's low ratings.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
We live in a society of borrowed debt. The reason everything will go down the toilet is because people will no longer be able to use their home's equity as an ATM. What's going to happen to all those lowlifes that took out home equity loans to purchase expensive cars, take exotic vacations, etc. What about the idiots in NYC that purchased piece of crap homes for $700,000 thousand dollars and the price drops to lets say........$450,000 thousand? They will be screwed. Nobody is buying anymore. All the lowlifes that took out 100% financing loans and ARM's have just been taken out of the equation. In today's market, unless you have great credit, you will not get a home loan, period. Since there will be no buyers, it will create downward pressure on the market. For those of you that stated that you can buy food, etc, with your dollar. In case you haven't realized it, a gallon of milk is about $4.00 dollars. I don't care how much money you have, your purchasing power has been diminished by the Fed. The Fed signed the death sentence for the dollar by lowering the rate. I will stake my reputation on this: THE DOW JONES WILL TANK! by next election you will see the unemployment rate go up. The Fed lowering the rate is not a cause for celebration, but a cause for concern.
I have a question for you coin guys and I need advice. I am tempted to purchase a few 2007 W uncirculated Platinum coins from the mint. What are your thoughts? I'd like to make the purchase for profit purposes. Any suggestions? I also welcome all the bashing. I actually learn a lot from you guys and everyone here has my utmost respect.
<< <i> I will stake my reputation on this: THE DOW JONES WILL TANK! by next election you will see the unemployment rate go up. >>
Come on now, how much is a reputation of someone with less than a year on the forum and less than 100 posts worth? In any case, my reputation, and yours put together won't buy a cup of coffee for us to split. Reputations are worth something to newsletter writers or stock brokers to their clients or customers. It helps if they have real time audited track records. For Internet forums, like I said, it isn't worth the price of a cup of coffee.
If a person is entirely sure, they can put down real money, and lots of it, and possibly make a ton more money, even if the only bet is that the stock market isn't going any higher by November 2008. There is no need to grandstand and make predictions. In my many years of stock market experience, the vast majority of stock market predictions offered on Internet forums, especially coin forums, are worthless. Those that are of value, tend to have value as contrary indicators (buy when the forum pundits say sell, and vice-versa).
Can't help you much with the plats. Eric and some others have posted some good info in past threads about tracking the mintages in Numismatic News and when to buy. Do a search for plats or Numismatic News or mintages and see what turns up.
Age has less to do with it than you think. Alan Greenspan, 81, recently said he did not see the subprime mortgage meltdown coming. He had access to more insider information than almost anyone on the planet and he couldn't predict what was going to happen? I am much younger than him and have been preaching doom&gloom about the housing market since 2004. Sometimes age and experience just make you arrogant and unable to think outside the box.
Greenspan was full of cr*p when he said that. He knew darn well what was going to happen. He knew it when he kept rates so low for so long. He finally had to get out while he had his good name. If this happened while he was still big chief then it would be on his shoulders. Think about it. He had 40-60 years just to study economics. He knew his stuff, and he knew when to get out.
Micmt
"One of the advantages of being disorderly is that one is constantly making new discoveries" -A.A. Milne
I'm still waiting for IWOGs perdiction that the DOW will tank to 9000 by Christmas!!! Don't worry, well all be trading our Dollars in for Ameros soon!!! It must be true I read it on the internet!!!
It is not exactly cheating, I prefer to consider it creative problem solving!!!
Most of these Gold threads are pretty funny. It seems voo doo economics and gold bugs(we all like gold, I'm talking the obssessed) go hand in hand. Wec all know gold has been a decent investment for some intermittent periods of time, but if you compare it to many investments it realestate, bonds, t bills, cd's and stocks over the long hall it falls flat. But it attracts all the doom and gloomers and dark economic theorists without fail ...LOL
Yesterday I sat through a 1 hour 401K presentation at work given by a very large and reputable WS firm. The message was loud and clear. Diversify into growth stock funds, don't move your money, put lots in, don't trade, and be happy knowing all this has worked well for the past 20-25 years. My only complaint with this was why only 20 year charts are used? Wasn't it so that the market stunk for the 20 years prior to 1982? Why not post a 40 year return to more evenly present the markets full history? I understand their logic as they want your money tied up for 20 more years. It's better to present the best 20 yr history of stocks in our nation's history as the model for all future 20 yr periods.
Since you are so much more astute than Alan Greenspan, kindly tell us how you would have tailored monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion without putting a dent in economic growth.
Greenspan was a patsy for the FED banking cartel and Bush. He sold his soul knowing he created the biggest bubbles since Johnathon Law and the South Sea fiasco. But now that he's out with a million dollar golden parachute, he can tell the truth on the outcome of his treachary and blame it on poor Ben. He sold the common man down the river for a parachute. He was far from powerless to fix it. He could have dealt the economy its medicine much the way Volcker did in 1980-1982 by raising rates and accepting the recession that was years overdue. He had plenty of options by chose to be a patsy to congress and the cartels. It was impossible not to "dent" the economy. That doesn't mean the best course was to prolong the pain and make the eventual medicine far worse. Economies get dented all the time. That's what cycles do. It's the meddling FED that prolongs the cycles on each end making the cycles worse and more costly for the common man. Let's just hope Greenspan's free 5 yr. lunch to the brokerages doesn't mean we are headed for a complete wreck rather than a fender bender.
Once you've lost your job it's too late buy gold. But what people should be doing is buying some before that happens. Gold is being stashed away by those with the money to protect some of what they do have now. Gold is later sold to those who still have jobs are those who are power brokers to the world. That's where the gold gravitates. And right now Asia and other concerns have been piling up the available gold for the past 5 years.
Don't count on the stock market crashing before the 2008 election. Bush and the FED will be as accomodating as possible to deliver the Presidency back to the Republicans. If he screws up further on the economy, the Dems have it sown up....just ask pappy Bush.
<< <i>Guys, I would like to add that in 1980, I was 5 years old and can assure you that I did not own any gold, especially gold saints. I really believe that gold will reach $1500-$2000 dollars an ounce easily. This is just my opionion and I am basing it on what is going on in the world today. I know the housing market is in the toilet now, but you have seen nothing yet. I'm talking about a major drop in prices and people losing everything. A total bloodbath. Here is another opinion, the Dow Jones is overpriced and it is the worst possible thing you can put your money into. These are my opionions, you don't have to agree. I would also like to add that I have total respect for the people on this board and they have tremendous amounts of knowledge in coins, etc. In fact, I've learned so much from the people on these boards and think you guys are awesome. I started coin collecting last year and I am a newbie in the hobby. I must say I had the best year ever in 2006. I got in on the Silver and Gold 20th Anniversary sets, the gold buffalo first strike, the W Uncirculated Platinum and Silver Coins. I did not know about the W Platinum sets, and I must thank EricJ96 for that. Many of you have opened my eyes to the coin collecting hobby and gold. Many of my decisions for purchasing coins were made because of the people on this board, and I thank you all for your input and wisdom. >>
In 1980 I was 51 yrs old and I did own gold. I did read Harry Browne's book and acted on the belief that he had made an interesting case much as you are doing today. Well Browne was partially correct The gold bullion I bought in Zurich for $250 skyrocketed to $850. I was working in the Negev desert in Israel and fervently believed that gold would go to $1500 - $2000 per ounce as Browne predicted. Well you know the story. Gold began to tank back to about the $400 level. After foolishly meeting one margin call I baled out with a huge loss. For whatever reason (and I've heard many) gold languished in the $300 -$350 range for the next 30 yrs. I took what was left of my assets when I returned to the States and bought a saloon in Boulder Co. in 1982. I was warned by many that it was the wrong time to invest in a business of this kind. Again the gurus were partially correct. We struggled for about 3 yrs and then the business took off like a skyrocket. Call it the economy or whatever business was great. I've come to believe that when the economy is bad people drink to drown their troubles and when it's good they drink to celebrate. Going even further back to 1954 I ignored family members and others who advised me that $9300 was too much to pay for a newly constructed 3 bedroom house in a subdivision that was being built in the boondocks of Broward County Fl. Being newly married I thought I should be my own man. With youthful exuberence I plunked down $750 and signed up for 30 years for payments of $61.50 per month. 12 years later I sold it for $15000 and considered myself one shrewd real estate tycoon. It is now in the center of civilization and worth approx $200,000. It was impossible for me (or anyone else) to predict such wild inflationary prices ever happening. Anyone who predicted ordinary blue collar families would be paying $30000 plus just for an ordinary family car would have been laughed out of town. Now to the present and all of the dire predictions. Yes there will probably be a recession and maybe even a depression. I lived through the big one and many small ones in my lifetime and see no reason not to expect more. The government will step in with more "fixes" which will create a new economy. Not necessarily better or worse as far as the average citizen is concerned. Just different. Since we have all lived with hyper inflation up to this point why does $10 gas, $100,000 cars and $2million dollar homes seem so outlandish? I am a lousy prognosticator but everything in this post save for the previous sentence is based on facts and actual experience as opposed to speculation regardless of however reasoned and researched. Dave W
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com
<< <i>Most people listened to the "experts" who had a vested interest in real estate prices rising. I looked at the situation and thought prices rising 20% per year or more was unsustainable. >>
No, most people did not do this. What really happened is that some first time home buyers took a risk given the opportunity to purchase a house at a high price but with a very low interest loan. Do you really think you're some brilliant economic whiz because you came to the same conclusion as most people who were talking about the housing bubble? For your information, Alan Greenspan was bemoaning the housing bubble for years, and was trying to use monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion that existed. Since you are so much more astute than Alan Greenspan, kindly tell us how you would have tailored monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion without putting a dent in economic growth.
CG >>
Yes, most people did do this. For years every newspaper, TV program, and advertisement spouted the opinion of a "real estate expert" who said real estate is the road to riches. Look how Donand Trump, Carlton Sheets, and Robert Kiyosaki were idolized and still are by the uninformed bobbleheads. Not to mention idiot realtors who were always quoted by the media and whose opinions were taken as gospel.
Your hero, Greenspan, actually said during an official fed speech that people would be wise to go out and get an ARM. This was in 2005. Do some research before you claim he is such a genius. Are you so angry because you listened to him and got an ARM when interest rates were at 40 year lows and only had one way to go? Are you one of those boomers who thought you were going to retire a millionaire because you were such a brilliant real estate investor? Guess what sparky, this X-er is not going to bail out someone who overpaid for a McMansion and then HELOCed to buy SUVs, jetskis, vacations, etc.
<< <i>I can't wait for the housing market to go down the toilet so the price of gold can skyrocket! Back in 1980 you couldn't touch an MS 65 Saint Gaudens for less than $4000 dollars. I think the same thing will happen again once people realize that their homes are not worth what they paid. The housing market will crash, the stock market will crash, people will lose their jobs, we will go into a recession and a possible depression. The fed is not helping matters by lowering the rates, however, this is good news for gold owners. Oh, and I forgot to mention that the worthless US dollar now equals the Canadian Dollar. >>
Have you considered that a Saint that would have graded ms 65 in 1980 would today be a ms 67 and still untouchable @$4000? Dave W
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com
Increasing money supply at a 10% yoy rate for yet another 10 years will get us to that $2 MILL dollar flat and $10 gas a lot faster than most people think. But who would have thought in the 1950's that the dollar link to gold would be severed and we'd print money like no one's business for the next 35 years? You can basically link all of those huge inflationary outcomes to the severing of the gold link in 1971. That gave the govt carte blanche to unleash inflation.
But I'm still waiting for my "TOILET GOLD" to sky rocket. At least that was the intent of the OP. On second though, I don't have any gold in my toilet, but I think Elvis or Liberace did.
Time to shred another argument of the stock parasites: If the economy in the U.S. tanks nobody will be able to buy your gold. True, yet irrelevant. You are showing your titanic American arrogance here. We are a nation of 300 million. India has 1.1 billion, China 1.4 billion, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, and the middle east are another 1 billion or so altogether. Combined they are about 60% of the world population, or more than 11 times the population of the U.S. These countries are all experiencing heavy population growth, heavy economic growth, and rapidly increasing personal and governmental wealth. Oh, did I mention that they all absolutely love gold? It is ingrained into their society, people are taught gold is the best thing to have since birth.
We are a global economy. The people and societies on this planet that are gaining all the money, power and influence want gold.
Greenspan said it was good to get an ARM?! No wonder I don't like that guy. He has got to have a dark agenda if that is true because a first grader should have seen the foolishness in ARM's under most circumstances. I think his recent comments seem to be something dark also but cannot tell why. He should be trying to calm people down not start a bank run.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>Time to shred another argument of the stock parasites: If the economy in the U.S. tanks nobody will be able to buy your gold. True, yet irrelevant. You are showing your titanic American arrogance here. We are a nation of 300 million. India has 1.1 billion, China 1.4 billion, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, and the middle east are another 1 billion or so altogether. Combined they are about 60% of the world population, or more than 11 times the population of the U.S. These countries are all experiencing heavy population growth, heavy economic growth, and rapidly increasing personal and governmental wealth. Oh, did I mention that they all absolutely love gold? It is ingrained into their society, people are taught gold is the best thing to have since birth.
We are a global economy. The people and societies on this planet that are gaining all the money, power and influence want gold. >>
Who do you think is stoking the flames of a global economy. Don't mean to sound arrogant but it is the US. If we stop buing the junk from China and stop exporting jobs to India then you will see them go down also. Many of the countries you mentioned are producers of raw materials for industry. We are the biggest engine in the world for economic growth and everyone will feel it if we catch a cold.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Yes, Greenspan recommended ARM's to those that couldn't afford it. He only "forecasted" calm seas for the economy, knowing just the opposite was over the horizon. He also was pro-gold in the 1966 and wrote a treatise stating that gold was the only means to keep nations in check from confiscating the wealth of the average citizen. He obviously put that thought to the back of his mind when he took over the FED. No doubt he still believes it.
I'd bet $10,000 that Greenspan has diversified his own assets into precious metals. He stated recently that he has completely diversified OUT of all US dollar assets. Way to go Alan! Yell fire, after all the horses are out of the barn.
I'll be voting for Ron "love" Paul (Rep TX). At least he's for fiscal responsibility and has proved it by his actions in congress. If that ultimately ends up a vote for someone else, so be it. I'm voting my conscience. And frankly, it matters little which Dem or Rep gets in, both will burn down the barn on the economy that was started by their predecessors. Stronger inflation is coming first followed by a recession of some sorts. That much I'm figuring on. Im not smart enough to say if it's hyper-inflation or depression. For now, I'll manage the "stagflation" that we do have and muddle on through.
<<Wasn't it so that the market stunk for the 20 years prior to 1982?>> YES
<<It's better to present the best 20 yr history of stocks in our nation's history as the model for all future 20 yr periods.>> It included the WORST bear market in our history - April 2000 through July 2002.
The Canadian Dollar should have been par with ours long ago anyway.
Yes, this IS a coin forum. I'll post one of my saints. It is up in value because of DEMAND and BEAUTY, NOT because of the price of gold going up, (not generic) or an inflation hedge or protection against the dollar.
<< <i>Increasing money supply at a 10% yoy rate for yet another 10 years will get us to that $2 MILL dollar flat and $10 gas >>
Increasing the money supply at a 10% year over year rate will lead to the euro and yuan being the world's currencies and demote us to 2nd world status, won't it?
Comments
(added: they doubled here in Az in the last few years)
Jim
<< <i>Satire is wasted here, guinzo, more's the pity. >>
Bingo.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
<< <i>I do not know where you live but the housing prices in the midwest did not go up to crazy prices and will not fall to crazy prices. All the places that had 100%+ gains in value can afford to drop, on wall street this is called a correction. I am holding off buying a new house until late next year when I can use my inflated money to buy a house in a recession if I get lucky. Please do not tell me about a recession coming, I live in Michigan and we have been in one for4 years and my house value has gone up by 30% if you believe the tax man.
Jim >>
it is somewhat relative whether you live in in a desirable area of the United States or the midwest (pun intended but nothing personal)
I built my house in 1985 for around $60,000. Today its worth around $225,000. Should have sold it 3 yrs ago, bought $350.00 gold and moved to a tropical island.
Feel free to disagree with anything I have said here.
Im just an old curmudgen anyway.
Of course the side affect is prices at 3-10 times where they started but thats the price to be paid.
Also keep in mind this is a US recession and MS65 coins are US collectables. My guess is they will slide like all collectables when money gets tight. Gold itself is international and should be a much better bet. Both will be better than Ben Franklins.
Of course, everyone should have a balanced portfolio - just like buying insurance on your house, life and automobile. However, I would much rather put aside a little bit in the way of guns, food, booze and toilet paper rather than gold.
Why? - well, if the apocalypse does arrive, you A) can't protect yourself with gold (well, I suppose you could hit the robber with your gold brick),
Have fun hiding in the hills with your stash of gold, boys!
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Why? - well, if the apocalypse does arrive, you A) can't protect yourself with gold (well, I suppose you could hit the robber with your gold brick),
Have fun hiding in the hills with your stash of gold, boys!
AMEN brother
<< <i>D) you can't wipe your @$$ with it >>
That's true, probably the only advantage your paper dollar will have.
this made me LOL the most in this thread.
I was also grinning at all the silly hyperbole thrown around.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Of course, everyone should have a balanced portfolio - just like buying insurance on your house, life and automobile. However, I would much rather put aside a little bit in the way of guns, food, booze and toilet paper rather than gold. >>
No reason you can't do all that and stash away a bit of a hoard in metals as well. Though I personally prefer silver as far as ROI.
No, I don't see any apocalypse coming either, but some economic hard times do seem rather likely.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Most people will continue walking around in ignorant bliss of the upheavals in the financial markets.
Recession, pullback, whatever... As long as there is food in their belly and a roof over their head, none of this crap matters.
Sounds like a pretty great way to live!
A recession is when your neighbor loses their job; a depression is when you do.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
<< <i>Always have to be suspiscious of those people with only 78 posts!!! You really dont know what your talking about until you have at least 124 posts!!!
Jeff >>
LOL. Wonder how many caught on to the irony of that post's credibility.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
It sure beats hiding out in the hills with a stash of worthless FRN's.
But you can also burn them in your camp fire...can't do that with gold.
Even in the worst of times, gold is desired for transactions. Please show me a time in recorded history that gold was not valued, not accepted and universally shunned. Start with the Egyptians....and you can end with the Weimar Republic or current Zimbabwe.
roadrunner
<< <i>Most people listened to the "experts" who had a vested interest in real estate prices rising. I looked at the situation and thought prices rising 20% per year or more was unsustainable. >>
No, most people did not do this. What really happened is that some first time home buyers took a risk given the opportunity to purchase a house at a high price but with a very low interest loan. Do you really think you're some brilliant economic whiz because you came to the same conclusion as most people who were talking about the housing bubble? For your information, Alan Greenspan was bemoaning the housing bubble for years, and was trying to use monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion that existed. Since you are so much more astute than Alan Greenspan, kindly tell us how you would have tailored monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion without putting a dent in economic growth.
CG
<< <i>
<< <i>
Age has less to do with it than you think. Alan Greenspan, 81, recently said he did not see the subprime mortgage meltdown coming. He had access to more insider information than almost anyone on the planet and he couldn't predict what was going to happen? I am much younger than him and have been preaching doom&gloom about the housing market since 2004. Sometimes age and experience just make you arrogant and unable to think outside the box. >>
Alan Greenspan an Elitist who figured he can dazzle you with his brilliance but all along was baffling you with bullshut...!!! >>
I believe what they are doing is bailing out everyone who streched beyond their means. Yes, the housing market had gotten ridiculous and Congress should have put in laws to restrict foolish speculation but they didn't. Now the great disciplinarian, the market, is laying down the law. I don't think it necessarily needs to be a blood bath. With cool heads we can weather this. Those who might want to fan the flames for political benefit are dispicable and are not helping people keep their homes.
<< <i>Congress should have put in laws to restrict foolish speculation >>
-the same congress that called for loosening lending practices to allow for more home ownership?
<< <i>
<< <i>Congress should have put in laws to restrict foolish speculation >>
-the same congress that called for loosening lending practices to allow for more home ownership? >>
It is a charitable goal to try to get more people into their own home but if you ignore reality to do it then you are foolish. I think Congress has earned it's low ratings.
My home will always be worth what I paid reguardless of what I could get for it on the open market.
-David
Guinzo1975 - tad more seasoning......been there done that........
I have a question for you coin guys and I need advice. I am tempted to purchase a few 2007 W uncirculated Platinum coins from the mint. What are your thoughts? I'd like to make the purchase for profit purposes. Any suggestions? I also welcome all the bashing. I actually learn a lot from you guys and everyone here has my utmost respect.
<< <i> I will stake my reputation on this: THE DOW JONES WILL TANK! by next election you will see the unemployment rate go up. >>
Come on now, how much is a reputation of someone with less than a year on the forum and less than 100 posts worth? In any case, my reputation, and yours put together won't buy a cup of coffee for us to split. Reputations are worth something to newsletter writers or stock brokers to their clients or customers. It helps if they have real time audited track records. For Internet forums, like I said, it isn't worth the price of a cup of coffee.
If a person is entirely sure, they can put down real money, and lots of it, and possibly make a ton more money, even if the only bet is that the stock market isn't going any higher by November 2008. There is no need to grandstand and make predictions. In my many years of stock market experience, the vast majority of stock market predictions offered on Internet forums, especially coin forums, are worthless. Those that are of value, tend to have value as contrary indicators (buy when the forum pundits say sell, and vice-versa).
Can't help you much with the plats. Eric and some others have posted some good info in past threads about tracking the mintages in Numismatic News and when to buy. Do a search for plats or Numismatic News or mintages and see what turns up.
Or my gold too for that matter?
<< <i>If no one has a job and the price of their homes tanked, how are they going to afford your gold?
Or my gold too for that matter? >>
That's what guns are for
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
Greenspan was full of cr*p when he said that. He knew darn well what was going to happen. He knew it when he kept rates so low for so long. He finally had to get out while he had his good name. If this happened while he was still big chief then it would be on his shoulders. Think about it. He had 40-60 years just to study economics. He knew his stuff, and he knew when to get out.
Micmt
editied for spelling corrections. I REALLY should check before I post!
Since you are so much more astute than Alan Greenspan, kindly tell us how you would have tailored monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion without putting a dent in economic growth.
Greenspan was a patsy for the FED banking cartel and Bush. He sold his soul knowing he created the biggest bubbles since Johnathon Law and the South Sea fiasco. But now that he's out with a million dollar golden parachute, he can tell the truth on the outcome of his treachary and blame it on poor Ben. He sold the common man down the river for a parachute. He was far from powerless to fix it. He could have dealt the economy its medicine much the way Volcker did in 1980-1982 by raising rates and accepting the recession that was years overdue. He had plenty of options by chose to be a patsy to congress and the cartels. It was impossible not to "dent" the economy. That doesn't mean the best course was to prolong the pain and make the eventual medicine far worse. Economies get dented all the time. That's what cycles do. It's the meddling FED that prolongs the cycles on each end making the cycles worse and more costly for the common man. Let's just hope Greenspan's free 5 yr. lunch to the brokerages doesn't mean we are headed for a complete wreck rather than a fender bender.
Once you've lost your job it's too late buy gold. But what people should be doing is buying some before that happens. Gold is being stashed away by those with the money to protect some of what they do have now. Gold is later sold to those who still have jobs are those who are power brokers to the world. That's where the gold gravitates. And right now Asia and other concerns have been piling up the available gold for the past 5 years.
Don't count on the stock market crashing before the 2008 election.
Bush and the FED will be as accomodating as possible to deliver the Presidency back to the Republicans. If he screws up further on the economy, the Dems have it sown up....just ask pappy Bush.
roadrunner
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
<< <i>Guys, I would like to add that in 1980, I was 5 years old and can assure you that I did not own any gold, especially gold saints. I really believe that gold will reach $1500-$2000 dollars an ounce easily. This is just my opionion and I am basing it on what is going on in the world today. I know the housing market is in the toilet now, but you have seen nothing yet. I'm talking about a major drop in prices and people losing everything. A total bloodbath. Here is another opinion, the Dow Jones is overpriced and it is the worst possible thing you can put your money into. These are my opionions, you don't have to agree. I would also like to add that I have total respect for the people on this board and they have tremendous amounts of knowledge in coins, etc. In fact, I've learned so much from the people on these boards and think you guys are awesome. I started coin collecting last year and I am a newbie in the hobby. I must say I had the best year ever in 2006. I got in on the Silver and Gold 20th Anniversary sets, the gold buffalo first strike, the W Uncirculated Platinum and Silver Coins. I did not know about the W Platinum sets, and I must thank EricJ96 for that. Many of you have opened my eyes to the coin collecting hobby and gold. Many of my decisions for purchasing coins were made because of the people on this board, and I thank you all for your input and wisdom. >>
In 1980 I was 51 yrs old and I did own gold. I did read Harry Browne's book and acted on the belief that he had made an interesting case much as you are doing today.
Well Browne was partially correct The gold bullion I bought in Zurich for $250 skyrocketed to $850.
I was working in the Negev desert in Israel and fervently believed that gold would go to $1500 - $2000 per ounce as Browne predicted.
Well you know the story. Gold began to tank back to about the $400 level.
After foolishly meeting one margin call I baled out with a huge loss.
For whatever reason (and I've heard many) gold languished in the $300 -$350 range for the next 30 yrs.
I took what was left of my assets when I returned to the States and bought a saloon in Boulder Co. in 1982.
I was warned by many that it was the wrong time to invest in a business of this kind.
Again the gurus were partially correct.
We struggled for about 3 yrs and then the business took off like a skyrocket.
Call it the economy or whatever business was great.
I've come to believe that when the economy is bad people drink to drown their troubles and when it's good they drink to celebrate.
Going even further back to 1954 I ignored family members and others who advised me that $9300 was too much to pay for a newly constructed 3 bedroom house in a subdivision that was being built in the boondocks of Broward County Fl.
Being newly married I thought I should be my own man.
With youthful exuberence I plunked down $750 and signed up for 30 years for payments of $61.50 per month. 12 years later I sold it for $15000 and considered myself one shrewd real estate tycoon.
It is now in the center of civilization and worth approx $200,000.
It was impossible for me (or anyone else) to predict such wild inflationary prices ever happening.
Anyone who predicted ordinary blue collar families would be paying $30000 plus just for an ordinary family car would have been laughed out of town.
Now to the present and all of the dire predictions.
Yes there will probably be a recession and maybe even a depression.
I lived through the big one and many small ones in my lifetime and see no reason not to expect more.
The government will step in with more "fixes" which will create a new economy.
Not necessarily better or worse as far as the average citizen is concerned. Just different.
Since we have all lived with hyper inflation up to this point why does $10 gas, $100,000 cars and $2million dollar homes seem so outlandish?
I am a lousy prognosticator but everything in this post save for the previous sentence is based on facts and actual experience as opposed to speculation regardless of however reasoned and researched.
Dave W
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com
<< <i>
<< <i>Most people listened to the "experts" who had a vested interest in real estate prices rising. I looked at the situation and thought prices rising 20% per year or more was unsustainable. >>
No, most people did not do this. What really happened is that some first time home buyers took a risk given the opportunity to purchase a house at a high price but with a very low interest loan. Do you really think you're some brilliant economic whiz because you came to the same conclusion as most people who were talking about the housing bubble? For your information, Alan Greenspan was bemoaning the housing bubble for years, and was trying to use monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion that existed. Since you are so much more astute than Alan Greenspan, kindly tell us how you would have tailored monetary policy to address the interest rate inversion without putting a dent in economic growth.
CG >>
Yes, most people did do this. For years every newspaper, TV program, and advertisement spouted the opinion of a "real estate expert" who said real estate is the road to riches. Look how Donand Trump, Carlton Sheets, and Robert Kiyosaki were idolized and still are by the uninformed bobbleheads. Not to mention idiot realtors who were always quoted by the media and whose opinions were taken as gospel.
Your hero, Greenspan, actually said during an official fed speech that people would be wise to go out and get an ARM. This was in 2005. Do some research before you claim he is such a genius. Are you so angry because you listened to him and got an ARM when interest rates were at 40 year lows and only had one way to go? Are you one of those boomers who thought you were going to retire a millionaire because you were such a brilliant real estate investor? Guess what sparky, this X-er is not going to bail out someone who overpaid for a McMansion and then HELOCed to buy SUVs, jetskis, vacations, etc.
Can we stay on topic.
This is a US Coin Forum.
<< <i>I can't wait for the housing market to go down the toilet so the price of gold can skyrocket! Back in 1980 you couldn't touch an MS 65 Saint Gaudens for less than $4000 dollars. I think the same thing will happen again once people realize that their homes are not worth what they paid. The housing market will crash, the stock market will crash, people will lose their jobs, we will go into a recession and a possible depression. The fed is not helping matters by lowering the rates, however, this is good news for gold owners. Oh, and I forgot to mention that the worthless US dollar now equals the Canadian Dollar. >>
Have you considered that a Saint that would have graded ms 65 in 1980 would today be a ms 67 and still untouchable @$4000? Dave W
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com
But I'm still waiting for my "TOILET GOLD" to sky rocket. At least that was the intent of the OP. On second though, I don't have any gold in my toilet, but I think Elvis or Liberace did.
roadrunner
We are a global economy. The people and societies on this planet that are gaining all the money, power and influence want gold.
<< <i>
I've come to believe that when the economy is bad people drink to drown their troubles and when it's good they drink to celebrate.
Dave W
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com >>
Now we're getting smoewhere!
As long as the government stands, we be ok. If nothing goes up or down, no one would make any real money.
San Diego, CA
<< <i>Time to shred another argument of the stock parasites: If the economy in the U.S. tanks nobody will be able to buy your gold. True, yet irrelevant. You are showing your titanic American arrogance here. We are a nation of 300 million. India has 1.1 billion, China 1.4 billion, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, and the middle east are another 1 billion or so altogether. Combined they are about 60% of the world population, or more than 11 times the population of the U.S. These countries are all experiencing heavy population growth, heavy economic growth, and rapidly increasing personal and governmental wealth. Oh, did I mention that they all absolutely love gold? It is ingrained into their society, people are taught gold is the best thing to have since birth.
We are a global economy. The people and societies on this planet that are gaining all the money, power and influence want gold. >>
Who do you think is stoking the flames of a global economy. Don't mean to sound arrogant but it is the US. If we stop buing the junk from China and stop exporting jobs to India then you will see them go down also. Many of the countries you mentioned are producers of raw materials for industry. We are the biggest engine in the world for economic growth and everyone will feel it if we catch a cold.
He only "forecasted" calm seas for the economy, knowing just the opposite was over the horizon. He also was pro-gold in the 1966 and wrote a treatise stating that gold was the only means to keep nations in check from confiscating the wealth of the average citizen.
He obviously put that thought to the back of his mind when he took over the FED. No doubt he still believes it.
I'd bet $10,000 that Greenspan has diversified his own assets into precious metals. He stated recently that he has completely diversified OUT of all US dollar assets. Way to go Alan! Yell fire, after all the horses are out of the barn.
roadrunner
I only have one thing to say about that, roadrunner. "Hillary Clinton"
I knew it would happen.
If that ultimately ends up a vote for someone else, so be it. I'm voting my conscience. And frankly, it matters little which Dem or Rep gets in, both will burn down the barn on the economy that was started by their predecessors. Stronger inflation is coming first followed by a recession of some sorts. That much I'm figuring on.
Im not smart enough to say if it's hyper-inflation or depression.
For now, I'll manage the "stagflation" that we do have and muddle on through.
Toilet Gold........you can never go wrong.
roadrunner
I'm joining a beanie baby forum
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
YES
<<It's better to present the best 20 yr history of stocks in our nation's history as the model for all future 20 yr periods.>>
It included the WORST bear market in our history - April 2000 through July 2002.
The Canadian Dollar should have been par with ours long ago anyway.
Yes, this IS a coin forum. I'll post one of my saints. It is up in value because of DEMAND and BEAUTY, NOT because of the price of gold going up, (not generic) or an inflation hedge or protection against the dollar.
<< <i>Increasing money supply at a 10% yoy rate for yet another 10 years will get us to that $2 MILL dollar flat and $10 gas >>
Increasing the money supply at a 10% year over year rate will lead to the euro and yuan being the world's currencies and demote us to 2nd world status, won't it?