Still a lot of work to be done with Coin Values prices
roadrunner
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An article I read in a letter to the CW editor sparked my interest. It suggested that the pops of the 19d and 19s buffalo nickels in MS65 were similar, therefore why the nearly 2.5X different in price for the S mint coin over the D mint? The CV price guide shows a higher S mint price throughout, culminating in a nearly 3X difference in MS66. The writer's opinion was that price guides were just not accurate.
He called it the "cult of the price guide."
The prices don't really seem to reflect all the MS pops where the
19-d is actually tougher in MS63. But in MS65 and certainly in 66, PCGS shows significantly more 19-D's. In MS66 there appears to be a small hoard (or many resubmissions at PCGS of 19-D's in MS66).
NGC shows no such number of 66's in either coin which is not surprising at the holy grail would be a MS67 in the PCGS Registry.
In any case the same logic applied to seated quarters shows numerous coins out of whack price-wise, this in spite of a number of updates...ironically to make it more "accurate."
The 1875-cc 25c in MS65 jumps right out at $40,000. While there was a sale of a superb old holder 65++ a few years back for just over $30,000....I can't believe this date is this high in 65. A leading dealer had a MS65 for sale for quite some time trying to fetch the same money as the other coin. Even at $14,000 in MS64, this date is around much more than some of the 1860's "S" mints. Sure it's a valued "CC" coin but let's not get too carried away.
The "O" mints in gem are sort of jumbled up to make little sense.
The 47-0 in MS65 at $22,000 doesn't yet exist in slabbed gem condition. If it did, it would cost more like $50,000. Maybe the $22K reflects what a low end coin would fetch. Even $18,000 listed for a 64 is an outlandish bargain. The 60-0 in MS65 (the most common O mint in gem) is priced at $14,000 and is higher than
59-0 an 56-0. That makes no sense. And the price of the 59-0 goes from $7K to $9K from 64 to 65. Explain that? There are 64's running around but no quantities of true 65's. The 66-s is priced lower than 68-s and 69-s in gem and is certainly the better coin imo. Part of the problem with these 3 dates is marginal coins running around in 64-66 holders. There are very few, if any, all there orig MS65/66's to choose from. There are one or two superb gems for each date, then a bunch of iffy 63 to 65 coins that do not qualify for gem status.
The 51-0, 52-0, 60-s, 64-s,71-s (5 true keys) are priced at $1000-$1200 in VF20 and cannot possibly be purchased for less than multiples of those prices. 42-0 SD and 72-s are priced a bit higher in F/VF but you won't find those near CV prices either. Problem free VF 1860-s quarters are nearly extinct. Then I compare at $800-$1000 for XF 1868-s and 1869-s quarters and I nearly gag at how high those are. They are not rarities in those grades. Neither is the
65-s. The 1855-S to 1859-s are as always, quite overrated in lower grades. Toss in the 55-0, 78-s, and 91-0 as well for being quite to somewhat overrated. You'll find these dates often enough with their mintages being "proof" of their rarity. Due to the New Orleans hoard the high prices listed for the 41-0 are now excessive. If you want to pay $4500 (or even $2700) for an MS63 1841-0, you can find one cheaper. $25,000 for an MS64 1849-0? Get real - go find one if you can. Then 1853 NA at $15,000 in MS65 is riding on the coat tails of the circ. That would be fair value for an MS67 imo. There are possibly more superb gem 53 NA's than there are problem free XF's. LIke the 1866-P, finding uncs is easy, it's the circs that are tuff.
When actual sales of these coins are taking place CV's must be asleep. While I have always been a big fan of 67-s quarters, there have been several UNC's transacted in recent years, yet no prices are listed above MS62. The 1847-0 has never to my knowledge had a gem specimen hit the market, yet it's priced at $22,000....probably the best value on the sheet after the VF key dates listed above. I could go on with the inconsistencies but I'm out of breath. 30 minutes with any one of the leading seated dealers out there would correct much of these errors. If CV hasn't noted sales of some of those key circ dates for double and triple their CV listed prices, they need to get out more, check ebay, and see what auction coins are bringing. A slightly damaged but slabbed 72-s in VF just sold for well over $4K. CV lists it for $3K. Maybe a change is in order?
This is just one series. You can draw similar parallels with most draped bust coinage, some capped bust series, other seated series, and the entire US gold series up to 1900. Lots of work to do.
roadrunner
He called it the "cult of the price guide."
The prices don't really seem to reflect all the MS pops where the
19-d is actually tougher in MS63. But in MS65 and certainly in 66, PCGS shows significantly more 19-D's. In MS66 there appears to be a small hoard (or many resubmissions at PCGS of 19-D's in MS66).
NGC shows no such number of 66's in either coin which is not surprising at the holy grail would be a MS67 in the PCGS Registry.
In any case the same logic applied to seated quarters shows numerous coins out of whack price-wise, this in spite of a number of updates...ironically to make it more "accurate."
The 1875-cc 25c in MS65 jumps right out at $40,000. While there was a sale of a superb old holder 65++ a few years back for just over $30,000....I can't believe this date is this high in 65. A leading dealer had a MS65 for sale for quite some time trying to fetch the same money as the other coin. Even at $14,000 in MS64, this date is around much more than some of the 1860's "S" mints. Sure it's a valued "CC" coin but let's not get too carried away.
The "O" mints in gem are sort of jumbled up to make little sense.
The 47-0 in MS65 at $22,000 doesn't yet exist in slabbed gem condition. If it did, it would cost more like $50,000. Maybe the $22K reflects what a low end coin would fetch. Even $18,000 listed for a 64 is an outlandish bargain. The 60-0 in MS65 (the most common O mint in gem) is priced at $14,000 and is higher than
59-0 an 56-0. That makes no sense. And the price of the 59-0 goes from $7K to $9K from 64 to 65. Explain that? There are 64's running around but no quantities of true 65's. The 66-s is priced lower than 68-s and 69-s in gem and is certainly the better coin imo. Part of the problem with these 3 dates is marginal coins running around in 64-66 holders. There are very few, if any, all there orig MS65/66's to choose from. There are one or two superb gems for each date, then a bunch of iffy 63 to 65 coins that do not qualify for gem status.
The 51-0, 52-0, 60-s, 64-s,71-s (5 true keys) are priced at $1000-$1200 in VF20 and cannot possibly be purchased for less than multiples of those prices. 42-0 SD and 72-s are priced a bit higher in F/VF but you won't find those near CV prices either. Problem free VF 1860-s quarters are nearly extinct. Then I compare at $800-$1000 for XF 1868-s and 1869-s quarters and I nearly gag at how high those are. They are not rarities in those grades. Neither is the
65-s. The 1855-S to 1859-s are as always, quite overrated in lower grades. Toss in the 55-0, 78-s, and 91-0 as well for being quite to somewhat overrated. You'll find these dates often enough with their mintages being "proof" of their rarity. Due to the New Orleans hoard the high prices listed for the 41-0 are now excessive. If you want to pay $4500 (or even $2700) for an MS63 1841-0, you can find one cheaper. $25,000 for an MS64 1849-0? Get real - go find one if you can. Then 1853 NA at $15,000 in MS65 is riding on the coat tails of the circ. That would be fair value for an MS67 imo. There are possibly more superb gem 53 NA's than there are problem free XF's. LIke the 1866-P, finding uncs is easy, it's the circs that are tuff.
When actual sales of these coins are taking place CV's must be asleep. While I have always been a big fan of 67-s quarters, there have been several UNC's transacted in recent years, yet no prices are listed above MS62. The 1847-0 has never to my knowledge had a gem specimen hit the market, yet it's priced at $22,000....probably the best value on the sheet after the VF key dates listed above. I could go on with the inconsistencies but I'm out of breath. 30 minutes with any one of the leading seated dealers out there would correct much of these errors. If CV hasn't noted sales of some of those key circ dates for double and triple their CV listed prices, they need to get out more, check ebay, and see what auction coins are bringing. A slightly damaged but slabbed 72-s in VF just sold for well over $4K. CV lists it for $3K. Maybe a change is in order?
This is just one series. You can draw similar parallels with most draped bust coinage, some capped bust series, other seated series, and the entire US gold series up to 1900. Lots of work to do.
roadrunner
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I did that with Keith Zaner back in the 80's when he ran CW trends pricing. All it took was a simple letter and some brief confirmation on his part....and he changed a lot of the quarter prices that were way off.
roadrunner
Yesterday at a show, someone said "Wow, you have three 1851 halves! Are you selling them anywhere near Bid?" and since it was an experienced collector, I just laughed, especially since I paid over double bid for them!
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I look back in fondness to my 1974 Coin World trends that I saved for posterity. Back then the 1874-cc dime listed for $750 in XF. I was actually dumb enough to think I was gonna stumble into one of those at some point. Now that they are $30K-$40K, you still won't stumble on to one! The 1867-s quarter in XF was all of $90 and I was lucky enough to stumble on to one of those for $130 in XF45 back then. But that kind of luck was very rare even back then.
To answer the question on modern pricing that's part of the price guide fallacy. It includes dealer transaction costs because they will never sell you a BU 2003 cent for 1C. Just to make ends meet they have to charge say a 5c for that coin. So when people tally up all their circ finds they end up with a total value of 5X to 10X what the stuff is worth. And as a rule, to get wholesale dealer buy for most older coinage one has to use a thumbrule of 60-70% of Coin Values.
For coins like Rich's 1851 halves you won't even get in the ball game at those numbers. But for most commonly traded stuff, 2/3 of CV or "trends" is a fair starting point. Don't do this with early bust material, most key dates, better seated or gold, etc. It won't work.
I'm sure there are moderns as well where the CV values are way too low.
roadrunner
1. Most important. Are you talking about retail price or wholesale (dealer) price? The PCGS price guide, Coin Values, the Red Book, and most published price guides are RETAIL price guides.
2. Would YOU consider buying a coin just based on a number published in a price guide?
3. Are you interested in the price value because you want to buy a coin or because you own a coin and wonder what its value is? Its value is, of course , what someone will pay you for the coin. So, if you are valuing your coin, you should value it at wholesale pricing, NOT retail pricing. If you want to buy a coin you should expect to pay retail value.
4. So we have two different prices for every coin. I think all the pricing guides would do everyone a big favor by listing values as a high (retail) and low (wholesale) In other words, a range for each coin. Unfortuately, except for Heritage's price guide, no major price guide does this, and so the arguments will go on as we see in this thread. JMHO. Steve
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<< <i>What I never understand is the "pricing" of modern circulated coinage. Why are circulated Lincoln cents from the 1990's and 2000's listed at $.05 each? Jefferson nickels at .10-.15 each? Roosevelt dimes at .15 each? Pretty much every Washington quarter that has come out in the last 10 years is priced at $.40 in VF to $.60-.65 in AU. This makes no sense to me. >>
There is no market for these and in many cases the coins are virtually nonexistent. So why price them?
I think the publishers of the guides are largely just using these numbers as a sort of place holder. There
is a little activity developing in these areas and the collectors will want some sort of indication of values.
Obviously a 1996 quarter in AU isn't really worth 65c but those who care don't need one and don't have
anywhere to buy one anyway.
These prices could get pretty interesting in a few years when there are dealers to support the demand.
Prices will tend to be pretty high since there will be a sort of built in handling charge but some of the tough
ones will be much higher.
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roadrunner
So as the CV editor, which price do you list?
roadrunner
For example I sold a MS-64 1888/7 S-1 (Indian Cent) for $85K but PCGS reported it for $35K. MS-63 for $20K. I sold a MS-63BN for $55K and mentioned it to Jamie how off his price was. He raised it and guess what? The next time the MS63BN came up for auction it sold for nearly $75K.
These don't trade often enough for price guides to keep track of, so you have to tell them when they are missing some info.
roadrunner
<< <i>What I never understand is the "pricing" of modern circulated coinage. Why are circulated Lincoln cents from the 1990's and 2000's listed at $.05 each? Jefferson nickels at .10-.15 each? Roosevelt dimes at .15 each? Pretty much every Washington quarter that has come out in the last 10 years is priced at $.40 in VF to $.60-.65 in AU. This makes no sense to me. >>
This may be a figure to indicate the nominal "convenience fee" a collector would have to pay a retail dealer to buy a modern coin if they needed it as a hole in an album. Sometimes, dealers will sell the coins of the current year for a smal convenience fee so that the collectors can add one to an album.
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