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WHAT THE HE%$ IS HAPPENING???
rpcoletrane
Posts: 718 ✭✭
Why are the 06 w burnished silver eagles dropping so much. I have seen them close on eBay the past couple of days with some just barely over $80. Is the hype over? Is it time to sell???
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<< <i>Why are the 06 w burnished silver eagles dropping so much. I have seen them close on eBay the past couple of days with some just barely over $80. Is the hype over? Is it time to sell??? >>
If it was hype then they never should have been so high in the first place.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
No, but I never thought they would be worth that much in the first place so I never bought any...
It is being led by some raws and guys who are raising cash. Look at what has happened!
Ed from New Jersey had been dumping millions of 2006 W Silver and Silver Sets on EBay for almost a month.
While it was sucked up at first, that HUGE selling drove prices down and sets dropped $200+/-.
However, during that same period the prices of 2006 W Unc Singles held up remarkably well!
It is now the ungraded and NGC supply that is getting the price pinched.
Just a few days ago, a 2006 W ASE PCGS MS69 FS 20th Anniversary could have been picked up near $200.
Not now, these are back near $250-300.
Only in the last 3-4 days has the pricing drooped, but there isn't as much for sale and that cheap stuff is getting 10-25 bidders and the winners are guys with 2500 on the feedbacks.
That ALONE tells me smart money is on the buying end!
IMHO, we are near the bottom of this HUGE sell-off (FOR this 2006 W Unc ASE SERIES ONLY).
Combined with some fear of the 'dreaded' Milk Spots (minimal on the graded stuff that I have seen), consider some other reasons here:
1.) It IS THE SLOW Season!, right before the kids go back to school (tons & tons of vacations)! Hell, I'll be gone a few days in the next few weeks and I am always working. Where are some of the regular posters? On Vacation!
2.) The Stock Market topping out, jeez anyone that watches a chart saw that one coming!
3.) Mintage watchers fearful that with the 2007 W sales within 68K of the 470K of the 2006 W, betting that the Mint might shut off 2007 W sales early so they are dumping. I've seen that reasoning posted here dozens of times by wishful thinkers and guys trying to get 2006 W holders to sell over the last 2-3 weeks.
4.) Finally, The Quiet (up until now) 2006 Mint buyers who have been on the side-lines as silent long-term holders of 2006 W's ASE, all of a sudden got fearful, deciding to cut the gains short and take nice profits, but all at once. These are the most conservative holders that have reached true capitulation.
Buy if you can, right now.
Many of these sellers DO NOT know the news that the US Mint is planning to add the 2007 W in an uncirculated set, insuring the Key Coin Status of the 2006 W.
I pulled much of my MS70 stuff down. I'm going to let my listed MS69 stuff play out, but I won't relist much until after Labor Day.
Now is the time to send any raw stuff in for grading ;>
Young Numismatist ............................ and growing!
The 07w ASE is in a very interesting position. 400K sold and no new buyers to be found - the reason why it is barely moving week to week in sales. Whoever wants them, has them. Big retailers have thier Holiday stock. Face it guys, other than the rumored 07 "Dollar Set", you are looking at another 50-75K in sales in the next 10 weeks, if you are lucky.
The rumored "Dollar Set" is NOT going to be "open" mintage. The one piece of info you all fail to report on your posts. Most likely, total available in the 50-100k range. I would err on the side of the 50k number. If it even happens.
All said and done, maybe 500K in single sales and 50k more in sets. Total mintage - my call - around 550K. IMO, sales will be shut down by end of October.
This is what makes a $22 coin a $60 coin very fast. Not much risk in that $22 coin.
<< <i>Why are the 06 w burnished silver eagles dropping so much. I have seen them close on eBay the past couple of days with some just barely over $80. Is the hype over? Is it time to sell??? >>
when they first hit ebay in pcgs slabs they went for obscene money(more for first strike)
they have fallen slowly since.
now with the economy spiraling down the crapper they dropped even more.
hold them for 10 years.
they will come back.
<< <i>400K sold and no new buyers to be found - the reason why it is barely moving week to week in sales. Whoever wants them, has them.
All said and done, maybe 500K in single sales and 50k more in sets. Total mintage - my call - around 550K. IMO, sales will be shut down by end of October.
This is what makes a $22 coin a $60 coin very fast. Not much risk in that $22 coin. >>
If everybody who wants one has one, there are large stocks in the hands of retailers, and 100K more may be issued before the year is out, how does it triple in value? Do the laws of economics not apply to these things?
CG
Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
ANA Member R-3147111
however, for some reason, many do not purchase "open"mintage pieces for fear they will produce many more than demanded
you may already know the end to this story
the mint shuts off sales and several thousand collectors are left to buy thier example from the secondary market.
price point, price point, price point.........
it's far easier to make a $22 coin a $60 coin and put it in the hands of the average collector, than a $400 first haag becoming a $1200 haag....
CalGold........
The question of the simple laws of supply and demand.......as for your answer, why not ask our pals at the FED the same question.......they should be able to put enough spin on the answer that whatever you learned in ECO101 seems useless in today's markets!!!!
Come on Bill - there is no excuse not to bring your laptop and/or Blackberry and enjoy your working vacation. How could these collectors leave their gadgets behind when they take off in this month of August - look at all the bargains they are missing!
Wondercoin
CG
<< <i>It IS THE SLOW Season!, right before the kids go back to school (tons & tons of vacations)! Hell, I'll be gone a few days in the next few weeks and I am always working >>
The ANA auctions went nuts. All of the dealers are reporting very strong sales even though the show was in Milwaukee. But its the slow season?
CG
The proper FED response has been forthcoming for at least two years....
Sacrifice the DOLLAR, or BANKRUPT middle class America.
Cut the rates, sacrifice the dollar. Those printing machines have been PUMPING out $$ at a growth rate of 8%+++ for at least 10 years.
But inflation is only 2%, we shouldnt worry...? Right?
The biggest danger to our economy is the burden of health care costs on industry. The UAW contracts have been crushing the automakers. And now those contracts are up for renewal and the UAW is already talking tough and threatening a strike at GM. Well, maybe GM can survive a strike but can Ford or Chrysler? Never under estimate the ability of big labor to price its own people out of their jobs.
CG
Edited to add: Of course its also tough for our industry to export into foreign markets that impose protective constraints, like the EU.
LOL!
I don't know about you Mitch, but while I admit to taking the Dell, it is hard to hide in the Bathroom from the Family after I go over the 15 Minute rule.
It really puts you on 'edge' trying to watch those last 5 minutes of a snipe as they are screaming at you to come out and get in the pool.
Besides, because the towels are not big enough to hide the Dell, I find that the likelihood of getting caught and de-nutted by my wife not worth the EBay "fix".
away from the wife and kids, or else face the wrath of god.
I'm talking strictly EBay Retail Buyers, Cal and the EBay sales they affect.
Much of this segment doesn’t know what the acronym “ANA” stands for, other than it is getting close to spelling out what a proctologist specializes in.
I am strictly addressing Modern Coins on EBay, specifically to the ‘supply and demand pulls’ of the total 470K Mintage of the 2006 W Unc Silver and recent sales observations made of the Z6F’s and 20th Anniversary Sets.
IMHO, I suspect this is a different Market from the ANA Dealer crowd.
That said, I am very happy to hear those ANA sales where still strong!
This is getting way off thread, but why not?
The real thing that is crushing the Big 3, is lack of Shareholder Control over Mgmt. You have a Mgmt structure that not only negotiated those UAW contracts (because they are not owners but High level Mgt with nice severance packages of Shareholder money they can run with in 3-4 years) but a Mgmt Structure that is at WAR with it's Suppliers.
Every year, the Big 3 demand 5-10% in price concessions from the Suppliers regardless of performance metrics or the cost to the supplier in its ability to stay in business.
The suppliers HATE the Big 3. I mean Hate them.
Yet, these suppliers are the very source of potential salvation and innovation (i.e. cost savings) for the Big 3.
I know of a product that saves 30% on the cost of $5 component used in EVERY car. On avg., there are 60 of these units used per car. There are about 19 Million Vehicles built in the US, alone (55% by Big 3, allow some +/- on my stats, please). It works out to nearly a BILLION dollars for this one common part of the thousands of parts used in a car.
The Suppliers will NOT show the Big 3 this 30% savings because no matter what, the Big 3 will STILL ask for the 5-10% cost reduction beyond the 30% they just saved the Big 3!
On the other hand, these same suppliers have taken the savings to the Japanese and Korean Car companies and have been handsomely rewarded for the innovation they have provided and the Japanese and Korean Car companies use that as the cost reduction that the BIG 3 force out of the Suppliers. But instead of a 5-10% cost reduction, They get a 25% Cost savings without raping or extorting the Supplier. Everyone is happy and the Supplier looks for even more ways to save for these Customers!
Yup! It is amazing, sad and true!
What incentive is there for a Tier 1 Supplier to assist the Big 3?
NONE. Absolutely NONE.
The Big 3 are considered the enemy and they are the biggest threat to the Supplier’s survival.
Can you imagine that?
The enemy to the Supplier is the Customer and the enemy to the Customer is the Supplier!
That folks, is the US Auto Business in a nutshell.
Hey man, the UAW and the Big 3 NEGOTIATE. Why blame the UAW for anything? They negotiated, if the Big 3 sold the farm, well that's the breaks, I guess they're a bunch of morons.
If I go on an interview and say I want $200K and the company says OK, should I turn around and say I'll take half that so the company can have higher profits ???
Get real. You all can take paycuts if you want, but I'm demanding more !!!