If the mint sold out 80,000 coins in 1 hour with the average order being 3 per. Then 40,000 should sell out in an hour and a half with the avg order being 1 per.. Would that be a fair assumption?
The Mint now says they sold out the first two in 2 hours. Anyway you cut it the Jeffs won't last longer then 2 hours and more then likely, 1 1/2 hours.
<< <i>You can please some of the collectors all of the time You can please all of the collectors some of the time But, you can not please all of the collectors, all of the time Of course, in the case of Forum members, It seems you can only please some of the members some of the time. The rest, you can not please at any time. >>
How profound, Bear. Please excuse me for removing the double spacing.
I think the limit of 1 per household is excessive. I have twin baby girls. What if I wish to purchase one for each? The limit of 5 per household is/was just fine. If you missed out the first time around, well then, shame on you.
<< <i>I think the limit of 1 per household is excessive. I have twin baby girls. What if I wish to purchase one for each? The limit of 5 per household is/was just fine. If you missed out the first time around, well then, shame on you. >>
That's what Grandparents are for Blame the TV hucksters and flippers for the Mint taking matters in their own hands and killing the goose that layed the golden egg so that more collectors have a chance.
Never teach a pig to sing. You'll waste your time and annoy the pig
the friends and family method works well if everyone is dedicated to buying and doesnt - forget, give up after the mint site is backlogged, enter the order incorrrectly, has issues with credit cards, etc.
I've got a network of family and friends in gear for 10+ sets of two. Of course, the question is how will they do as the end collector base may be limited.
<< <i>I think this will push supply and demand causing higher prices to much lead time on the mints part should have waited on the news relase theses flippers will have time to set up their plays just my guess >>
I totally agree with your statement!
On any limited edition series, there are big businesses out there that actually PAY people to buy what they cannot due to US Mint Limitations! After all, why not pay $20.00 per coin when you can flip them for hundreds more than what you paid!
Regardless of the limit, I expect the Jefferson coin to sellout within hours! Not days, but hours!
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
<< <i>I don't get how some get there friends to order for them.I get my friends (family) to order for themselves so they can make a few bucks. >>
I agree, do they tell them that they are going to make, $800 profit on 2 coins? Do they give them a percentage? Why don't the 'freinds' 'revolt' and say they want to make the $800 for themselves ??
<< <i>I think the limit of 1 per household is excessive. I have twin baby girls. What if I wish to purchase one for each? The limit of 5 per household is/was just fine. If you missed out the first time around, well then, shame on you. >>
Without a mintage limit that allowed a sellout within two hours, I agree. The limit is a draconian response to a draconian mintage limit.
But when someone who may not be able to have access to a phone or an online computer over a two hour period are shut out (and there are plenty of legitimate reasons why someone couldn't get in during that time), it's a sham.
<< <i>I don't get how some get there friends to order for them.I get my friends (family) to order for themselves so they can make a few bucks. >>
I agree, do they tell them that they are going to make, $800 profit on 2 coins? Do they give them a percentage? Why don't the 'freinds' 'revolt' and say they want to make the $800 for themselves ?? >>
Real telephone conversation (from a previous U.S. Mint Coin Issue).
Me: "Mike, can you do me a favor?"
Mike: "Sure, buddy, what's up?"
Me: "Need you to order some coins for us from the Mint. They have a limit on the number we can order."
Mike: "But don't you guys do, like, a million dollars in business with the Mint every year? Why would they not let you order more? That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard."
Me: "Mike, we are talking about the government. What can you do, know what I mean?"
Mike: "Good point. Sure, I'll order them for you. Just remind me the day before so I don't forget. Hey, are we still golfing on Sunday?..."
Me: "Yep, our tee-time is 6:50, so make sure you get your a** out of bed. I'll pick up the greens fees since you are getting these coins for us. Plus $100 per set you order, assuming you can get any"
Mike: "No way, man. I don't expect anything. Buy me a beer next time we all go out."
<< <i>I agree, do they tell them that they are going to make, $800 profit on 2 coins? Do they give them a percentage? Why don't the 'freinds' 'revolt' and say they want to make the $800 for themselves ?? >>
You say one of two things: here's cash + $50, I just need to use your credit card and address (you aren't using their money, or their idea, so there is no real reason to split the profit 50/50). OR you can say "Hey ya'll, I have an idea that'll double our money. Let me use your card and address and I'll give you half of what I make. Personally, I've made different deal with different people--back in the Goodacre days, the first friend I asked simply agreed to do it for a pizza. The last one wanted half the profit. Whatever deal you feel is fair, do it.
If they revolt and buy them on their own, fine. That's the last time they get a "tip" from you, eh? Which makes more money: half the profit on every profitable Mint product from now on, or all the profit on this one coin, but being cut off from the source of information for future buys?
I think the consensus on this thread is that people will just enlarge their networks. I still give it 24 hours to sell out.
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
What the Mint has done is to increase the level of effort for flippers by an order of magnitude of 5 from the last time. This is not insignificant in terms of tracking everything. I suspect there is sufficient profit motive to do that, but it is a lot of work and additional cost.
This is good for both the individual collector who probably has a 3 to 4 hour window to buy and also for the upside value of the coin as many folks will have to go into the secondary market if they need a large volume of coins. I was thinking the television hucksters primarily, but also some of the full page CW advertisers as well. I did notice First Spouse coins for sale for $895 in my last CW. (Not suggesting that is the market price, just an ad I noticed).
The Mint has aggravated some dealers and flippers, but has also done the right thing for individual collectors. This is actually better for the hobby in the long run as it encourages the individual to participate and provides the maximum opportunity for the small time collector.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
I still think that those who were shut out the last time will not find it any easier this time, because the scenario is still the same: phone or internet, high noon EDT. If you couldn't get it done in the first 2 hours the last time, you won't this time either. It might give you a little more time, but I'm guessing 4 hours max and these will be gone.
This happens with concert tickets, theater tickets, sporting events and many other things where the supply exceeds the demand. Some things are not "fair".
It's not that I don't want to see the collectors get these at issue, it's just that they can't expect these to hang arount that long. They either need to take time off of work (if they can't order them at that time) or get them on the secondary market.
I'd keep playing. I don't think the heavy stuff will be coming down for quite a while!
<< <i>It's not that I don't want to see the collectors get these at issue, it's just that they can't expect these to hang arount that long. They either need to take time off of work (if they can't order them at that time) or get them on the secondary market. >>
Let them eat cake?
Not everyone has that kind of flexibility in their work arrangement.
<< <i>It's not that I don't want to see the collectors get these at issue, it's just that they can't expect these to hang arount that long. They either need to take time off of work (if they can't order them at that time) or get them on the secondary market. >>
Let them eat cake?
Not everyone has that kind of flexibility in their work arrangement. >>
I understand that there are quite a few people who's schedule doesn't permit them to have internet access at that time. Heck we have that problem with our Fantasy Football league, too. I sympathize with them, I really do!
Maybe the answer is to take order for a week and then have a lottery to determine who gets the coins from all of those that order. But is that fair? Not to the people who are on vacation all of that time, for example.
My point is, you can try to make this as fair as possible, but you can't make it fair to everyone if more than 20,000 people want this coin (assuming everyone buys 2).
I'd keep playing. I don't think the heavy stuff will be coming down for quite a while!
<< <i>Maybe the answer is to take order for a week and then have a lottery to determine who gets the coins from all of those that order. But is that fair? Not to the people who are on vacation all of that time, for example.
My point is, you can try to make this as fair as possible, but you can't make it fair to everyone if more than 20,000 people want this coin (assuming everyone buys 2). >>
I know we can't do it for this year's coins, but the right thing to do is to get rid of the stupid mintage limit. That is what is creating the frenzy.
I know we can't do it for this year's coins, but the right thing to do is to get rid of the stupid mintage limit. That is what is creating the frenzy. >>
That will be the next step for the Mint. I don't think they will go unlimited but 30-40,000 for these spouses is likely.
I still do not believe there is a demand above 20,000 for these coins.
I think maybe 10,000 is the real demand. Soon the prices will drop to issue price and lower.
I know we can't do it for this year's coins, but the right thing to do is to get rid of the stupid mintage limit. That is what is creating the frenzy. >>
That will be the next step for the Mint. I don't think they will go unlimited but 30-40,000 for these spouses is likely.
I still do not believe there is a demand above 20,000 for these coins.
I think maybe 10,000 is the real demand. Soon the prices will drop to issue price and lower.
Just my thought on these.
Rookie Joe >>
I agree Remove the mintage limits and these ladies will be lucky to 5000 people who want an uncirculated and 10,000 people who want a proof version. By the time the third year of the program rolls around they would have to kill it because the demand will be so low. The only thing driving this program is the flippers greed. (I should know, I'm one)
No one has mentioned the fact that this is the only 24k gold fratgional made bt the Mint. Maybe that has some effect in all this? Imagine what the buff fractional would do the the eagle sales.
Also, no one has mentioned the growing popularity of investing in precious metals. My prediction, within a year or two, people will be talking about gold and silver like they did real estate 2 years ago.
<< <i>Why not get a proof Platinum 1/10 ounce eagle for $229 -- they only have a production mintage of 10,000.... >>
For some, because the profit potential is not as great. Platinum doesn't appear to be as popular as gold and silver. It's a itty bitty coin. The design is nowhere near the beauty of Jefferson's Liberty. They're just not on the radar as much.
<< <i>Why not get a proof Platinum 1/10 ounce eagle for $229 -- they only have a production mintage of 10,000.... >>
For some, because the profit potential is not as great. Platinum doesn't appear to be as popular as gold and silver. It's a itty bitty coin. The design is nowhere near the beauty of Jefferson's Liberty. They're just not on the radar as much. >>
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder now isn't it? One could argue that Jefferson's Liberty is nothing more than a recycled design of a previous coin. On the other hand, each and every one of the proof plats in the series has different design, many of them arguably the most beautiful design ever seen on US coinage!!
Here's the thing, I'll get the Jefferson spouse to flip, I buy the proof platinums to keep. Long term, I thing the plats will outperform the Jefferson Liberty hands down.
Oops, accidently hit enter before typing my message.
I agree with coinhog. Of course the relative beauty of the things is subjective. I love the plats. Furthermore, I think that platinum itself has a lot of upward potential. It has many, many industrial uses and very limited supply. As India and China come online, industrial demand will increase with no real ability to increase supply. Speculaton to be sure, but many in the investment market seem to feel this way.
I've seen the posts on having friends order spouses for you and the "contrary" opinion of when those friends "buy the coins for themselves" as they get keen to a good deal....
Make your offer, if it is issue +50 on the spouses (seems to be a consistent price) and the original buyer renegs on the agreement, dont offer any further info on buying and selling - after all - you are GUARANTEEING a PROFIT to these folks. Information is key. It does not come for free.
If anyone is aware of the CURRENT pricing on these SPOUSES, not many have been selling for more than $500 in the latest lull - many dealers have either A) removed thier outstanding buy orders, or have significantly decreased thier buy prices. Many dealers are barely over $475 per coin on the buy side last week.
We all know when you consider EBAY list, FV fees and PAYPAL fees....you are cutting into the proceeds by at least $30 per coin, so that $500 is now $470, which depending if your friends sold you prrof or unc's......you are BARELY maming a profit for all your work after you paid them the $50 per coin.
Once the buyers know THEY RISK losing money if they dont get these coins fast and know how to market them, they take the $50 per coin in a heartbeat.
Be very upfront with them, you may make a decent profit on them raw, you may risk grading and time to make more of a profit, you may not get them for quite some time from the mint and risk losing some cash. But in any event, THIER PROFIT is GUARANTEED.
Has anyone thought about what this limit is going to do to the Mint's ordering system the day these go on sale? More orderers mean heavier load on a system that struggles to stay functional on a slow day. It will be interesting to see if on-line ordering or phone ordering will crash first that day.
Collecting coins, medals and currency featuring "The Sower"
Doesn't it suck though that even with all that extra work you'll only get what you could have ordered by yourself had they left the limit at 10. I'm in the same boat - should get about 10 total.
I actually think the limit is a good thing. Wanted to buy first round but had a meeting and did not get back to my computer until 3:30-4pm. And they were gone. If this is going to put more coins directly into collector hands and make things harder on the flippers and coin huksters on TV than I am all for it.
I am all set and ready for Aug. 30, at 12:00 EST. Will be getting my 2 coins before they "disappear" in 1/2 hr. ...Think I will buy more beginning of next year, when the dust settles.{Perhaps the prices will be lower as well}
Comments
<< <i>You can please some of the collectors all of the time
You can please all of the collectors some of the time
But, you can not please all of the collectors, all of the time
Of course, in the case of Forum members, It seems you can only
please some of the members some of the time. The rest, you can not
please at any time. >>
How profound, Bear. Please excuse me for removing the double spacing.
I think the limit of 1 per household is excessive. I have twin baby girls. What if I wish to purchase one for each? The limit of 5 per household is/was just fine. If you missed out the first time around, well then, shame on you.
<< <i>I think the limit of 1 per household is excessive. I have twin baby girls. What if I wish to purchase one for each? The limit of 5 per household is/was just fine. If you missed out the first time around, well then, shame on you. >>
That's what Grandparents are for
As far as those buying from TV, again, shame on them.
like someone else said, " a logistical nightmare"
Looking for Denmark 1874 20-Kroner. Please offer.
<< <i>I think this will push supply and demand causing higher prices
to much lead time on the mints part should have waited on the news relase
theses flippers will have time to set up their plays just my guess >>
I totally agree with your statement!
On any limited edition series, there are big businesses out there that actually PAY people to buy what they cannot due to US Mint Limitations! After all, why not pay $20.00 per coin when you can flip them for hundreds more than what you paid!
Regardless of the limit, I expect the Jefferson coin to sellout within hours! Not days, but hours!
The name is LEE!
<< <i>I don't get how some get there friends to order for them.I get my friends (family) to order for themselves so they can make a few bucks. >>
I agree, do they tell them that they are going to make, $800 profit on 2 coins? Do they give them a percentage? Why don't the 'freinds' 'revolt' and say they want to make the $800 for themselves ??
<< <i>I think the limit of 1 per household is excessive. I have twin baby girls. What if I wish to purchase one for each? The limit of 5 per household is/was just fine. If you missed out the first time around, well then, shame on you. >>
Without a mintage limit that allowed a sellout within two hours, I agree. The limit is a draconian response to a draconian mintage limit.
But when someone who may not be able to have access to a phone or an online computer over a two hour period are shut out (and there are plenty of legitimate reasons why someone couldn't get in during that time), it's a sham.
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't get how some get there friends to order for them.I get my friends (family) to order for themselves so they can make a few bucks. >>
I agree, do they tell them that they are going to make, $800 profit on 2 coins? Do they give them a percentage? Why don't the 'freinds' 'revolt' and say they want to make the $800 for themselves ?? >>
Real telephone conversation (from a previous U.S. Mint Coin Issue).
Me: "Mike, can you do me a favor?"
Mike: "Sure, buddy, what's up?"
Me: "Need you to order some coins for us from the Mint. They have a limit on the number we can order."
Mike: "But don't you guys do, like, a million dollars in business with the Mint every year? Why would they not let you order more? That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard."
Me: "Mike, we are talking about the government. What can you do, know what I mean?"
Mike: "Good point. Sure, I'll order them for you. Just remind me the day before so I don't forget. Hey, are we still golfing on Sunday?..."
Me: "Yep, our tee-time is 6:50, so make sure you get your a** out of bed. I'll pick up the greens fees since you are getting these coins for us. Plus $100 per set you order, assuming you can get any"
Mike: "No way, man. I don't expect anything. Buy me a beer next time we all go out."
Me: "Alright, thanks man. See you Sunday."
Mike: "See ya bro."
So what 40,000 mintage.. what about the COIN ITSELF ---?
<< <i>It is one proof and one MS per household, not one or the other per household, correct? >>
Correct 1 of each. A total of 2
<< <i>I agree, do they tell them that they are going to make, $800 profit on 2 coins? Do they give them a percentage? Why don't the 'freinds' 'revolt' and say they want to make the $800 for themselves ?? >>
You say one of two things: here's cash + $50, I just need to use your credit card and address (you aren't using their money, or their idea, so there is no real reason to split the profit 50/50). OR you can say "Hey ya'll, I have an idea that'll double our money. Let me use your card and address and I'll give you half of what I make. Personally, I've made different deal with different people--back in the Goodacre days, the first friend I asked simply agreed to do it for a pizza. The last one wanted half the profit. Whatever deal you feel is fair, do it.
If they revolt and buy them on their own, fine. That's the last time they get a "tip" from you, eh? Which makes more money: half the profit on every profitable Mint product from now on, or all the profit on this one coin, but being cut off from the source of information for future buys?
I think the consensus on this thread is that people will just enlarge their networks. I still give it 24 hours to sell out.
This is good for both the individual collector who probably has a 3 to 4 hour window to buy and also for the upside value of the coin as many folks will have to go into the secondary market if they need a large volume of coins. I was thinking the television hucksters primarily, but also some of the full page CW advertisers as well. I did notice First Spouse coins for sale for $895 in my last CW. (Not suggesting that is the market price, just an ad I noticed).
The Mint has aggravated some dealers and flippers, but has also done the right thing for individual collectors. This is actually better for the hobby in the long run as it encourages the individual to participate and provides the maximum opportunity for the small time collector.
This happens with concert tickets, theater tickets, sporting events and many other things where the supply exceeds the demand. Some things are not "fair".
It's not that I don't want to see the collectors get these at issue, it's just that they can't expect these to hang arount that long. They either need to take time off of work (if they can't order them at that time) or get them on the secondary market.
<< <i>It's not that I don't want to see the collectors get these at issue, it's just that they can't expect these to hang arount that long. They either need to take time off of work (if they can't order them at that time) or get them on the secondary market. >>
Let them eat cake?
Not everyone has that kind of flexibility in their work arrangement.
<< <i>
<< <i>It's not that I don't want to see the collectors get these at issue, it's just that they can't expect these to hang arount that long. They either need to take time off of work (if they can't order them at that time) or get them on the secondary market. >>
Let them eat cake?
Not everyone has that kind of flexibility in their work arrangement. >>
I understand that there are quite a few people who's schedule doesn't permit them to have internet access at that time. Heck we have that problem with our Fantasy Football league, too. I sympathize with them, I really do!
Maybe the answer is to take order for a week and then have a lottery to determine who gets the coins from all of those that order. But is that fair? Not to the people who are on vacation all of that time, for example.
My point is, you can try to make this as fair as possible, but you can't make it fair to everyone if more than 20,000 people want this coin (assuming everyone buys 2).
<< <i>Maybe the answer is to take order for a week and then have a lottery to determine who gets the coins from all of those that order. But is that fair? Not to the people who are on vacation all of that time, for example.
My point is, you can try to make this as fair as possible, but you can't make it fair to everyone if more than 20,000 people want this coin (assuming everyone buys 2). >>
I know we can't do it for this year's coins, but the right thing to do is to get rid of the stupid mintage limit. That is what is creating the frenzy.
I know we can't do it for this year's coins, but the right thing to do is to get rid of the stupid mintage limit. That is what is creating the frenzy. >>
That will be the next step for the Mint. I don't think they will go unlimited but 30-40,000 for these spouses is likely.
I still do not believe there is a demand above 20,000 for these coins.
I think maybe 10,000 is the real demand. Soon the prices will drop to issue price and lower.
Just my thought on these.
Rookie Joe
<< <i> >>
I know we can't do it for this year's coins, but the right thing to do is to get rid of the stupid mintage limit. That is what is creating the frenzy. >>
That will be the next step for the Mint. I don't think they will go unlimited but 30-40,000 for these spouses is likely.
I still do not believe there is a demand above 20,000 for these coins.
I think maybe 10,000 is the real demand. Soon the prices will drop to issue price and lower.
Just my thought on these.
Rookie Joe >>
I agree
Platinum 1/10 ounce eagle
<< <i>Why not get a proof Platinum 1/10 ounce eagle for $229 -- they only have a production mintage of 10,000.... >>
For some, because the profit potential is not as great. Platinum doesn't appear to be as popular as gold and silver. It's a itty bitty coin. The design is nowhere near the beauty of Jefferson's Liberty. They're just not on the radar as much.
<< <i>
<< <i>Why not get a proof Platinum 1/10 ounce eagle for $229 -- they only have a production mintage of 10,000.... >>
For some, because the profit potential is not as great. Platinum doesn't appear to be as popular as gold and silver. It's a itty bitty coin. The design is nowhere near the beauty of Jefferson's Liberty. They're just not on the radar as much. >>
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder now isn't it? One could argue that Jefferson's Liberty is nothing more than a recycled design of a previous coin. On the other hand, each and every one of the proof plats in the series has different design, many of them arguably the most beautiful design ever seen on US coinage!!
Here's the thing, I'll get the Jefferson spouse to flip, I buy the proof platinums to keep. Long term, I thing the plats will outperform the Jefferson Liberty hands down.
I agree with coinhog. Of course the relative beauty of the things is subjective. I love the plats. Furthermore, I think that platinum itself has a lot of upward potential. It has many, many industrial uses and very limited supply. As India and China come online, industrial demand will increase with no real ability to increase supply. Speculaton to be sure, but many in the investment market seem to feel this way.
Make your offer, if it is issue +50 on the spouses (seems to be a consistent price) and the original buyer renegs on the agreement, dont offer any further info on buying and selling - after all - you are GUARANTEEING a PROFIT to these folks. Information is key. It does not come for free.
If anyone is aware of the CURRENT pricing on these SPOUSES, not many have been selling for more than $500 in the latest lull - many dealers have either A) removed thier outstanding buy orders, or
We all know when you consider EBAY list, FV fees and PAYPAL fees....you are cutting into the proceeds by at least $30 per coin, so that $500 is now $470, which depending if your friends sold you prrof or unc's......you are BARELY maming a profit for all your work after you paid them the $50 per coin.
Once the buyers know THEY RISK losing money if they dont get these coins fast and know how to market them, they take the $50 per coin in a heartbeat.
Be very upfront with them, you may make a decent profit on them raw, you may risk grading and time to make more of a profit, you may not get them for quite some time from the mint and risk losing some cash. But in any event, THIER PROFIT is GUARANTEED.