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So-Called Dollar market to get a "reality check" while doubters may be surprised and colle
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
At the risk of letting the Cat-out-of-the-bag and perhaps paying a bit more for some medals, I'll take this oppurtunity to alert the forum to an upcoming large group of So Called Dollars coming to the auction block. The scene will be at the September Long Beach Show and the auctioneer will be Heritage with Auction #427 in mid-September. The word out is that their will be approximately 500 Lots which will include the entire realm of listings from the Hibler-Kappen catalog, comprised of singles/group lots/raw/certified examples. The listings started to show up last week and grow daily, showing over 100 lots thus far but still with not many pictured.
To be fair in an assessment, it's to be expected that many(if not a majority) of the lots will be either common medals or medals in circulated grades. The ones that will tell the real story of market strength and vibrancy will be the more rare examples and the better, clean examples of any listing. My day to day perusal at the listings has given me a few surprises and my "tracking" list is growing. It'll be interesting to watch the prices and the effect on upcoming auctions by ANR/Stack's and Heritage, espectially regarding what really rare and high grade stuff gets sucked out if things finish strong.
For collectors like me, it presents a difficult choice. As a buyer, waiting could be a costly mistake and an expensive proposition if the wrong bunch of knuckleheads shows up!!!
As a seller it provides a choice of waiting for some further price info or selling prior to the auction and maybe losing money. I personally know a few collectors/dealers who are hoarding right now and some that are dumping, so it's a toss-up.
If you're a SC$ collector are their certain medals you're looking for and do you think you'll be drawn to the frenzy out in SoCal for the SoCalleds????
Al H.
To be fair in an assessment, it's to be expected that many(if not a majority) of the lots will be either common medals or medals in circulated grades. The ones that will tell the real story of market strength and vibrancy will be the more rare examples and the better, clean examples of any listing. My day to day perusal at the listings has given me a few surprises and my "tracking" list is growing. It'll be interesting to watch the prices and the effect on upcoming auctions by ANR/Stack's and Heritage, espectially regarding what really rare and high grade stuff gets sucked out if things finish strong.
For collectors like me, it presents a difficult choice. As a buyer, waiting could be a costly mistake and an expensive proposition if the wrong bunch of knuckleheads shows up!!!
As a seller it provides a choice of waiting for some further price info or selling prior to the auction and maybe losing money. I personally know a few collectors/dealers who are hoarding right now and some that are dumping, so it's a toss-up.If you're a SC$ collector are their certain medals you're looking for and do you think you'll be drawn to the frenzy out in SoCal for the SoCalleds????
Al H.
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edited to correct number of lots.
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
BTW, it is O.K. to dream, right?
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
"1962 Americas Space World Fair Cetury 21 Exposition"
Any value or shouild I just dump them?
<< <i>I'd like to land a nice HK-1000, a nicer HK-2,3, or4, an even nicer HK-379, any HK-390/391/392, an unc. HK-450, any HK-589a/589b...
BTW, it is O.K. to dream, right?
All pieces that come around but not often and with open the wallet wide, ending.
Bin looking for any Brian Boru (390,391,392) examples to no avail.
Yes , its ok to dream !
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
<< <i>I guess that the hoarders are scrapping their plans to attempt to make a market in those things ... probably a wise decision. Besides a few of the more popular issues, that is not a bag that I would like to be left holding. >>
A very thin series indeed. I fail to see any backup to your suggestion that "hoarders are scraping their plans to attempt to make a market".
As for " not the bag that I would like to be left holding". I could not dissagree more.
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
now, DUIGUY, please understand that of the reported 500 lots there are barely 100 listed and probably only a fourth of them even have pictures up yet. part of a big sale like this is the "shaking out" of true rarity and the surfacing of better quality. my tacking list so far is more for pricing while i wait for pictures to check the quality of items i'm interested in. with all that said, i wouldn't get my hopes up for a 1000!!!
<< <i>I guess that the hoarders are scrapping their plans to attempt to make a market in those things ... probably a wise decision. Besides a few of the more popular issues, that is not a bag that I would like to be left holding. >>
I'll remember these words when I feel like selling another complete HK-510/511/512 set (gold/silver/bronze) of the Albany "Cradle of the Union".
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
... however, I have been wrong before so don't based your purchasing decisions upon my witless banter
I stand corrected ! Thank you Keets !
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
<< <i>Keets ... I say that based on a bit of quasi-inside information that I am not supposed to be privy to. I am definitely not bashing the series or its collectors. I am merely saying that, in my humble opinion, the prices have been run up and those in the know have already unloaded most of their holdings or are presently in the process of doing so. And, with such a small group of collectors and the fact that most numismatists do not consider them coins at all, once the market makers have completed their withdrawal, you are going to see a lot of supply with little demand ... except of course for a relatively small amount of choice pieces ...
... however, I have been wrong before so don't based your purchasing decisions upon my witless banter
I feel sorry for those that feel it is time to "dump" at this time. Perhaps this decission come out of frustration. There are some really nice rare pieces in this series, some have yet to be seen due to private selling.
IMHO this series has a LONG way to go. This info is based on a quasi-inside information that I KNOW from other collectors.
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
i find this post interesting and very telling in a sense.
i don't really think there's much confusion with the main body of SC$ collectors as to whether anyone should "consider them coins at all" and i find it strange that there are certain items such as the Wilson Dollar, Bryan Dollars and the Lesher Referendum Dollars which ARE actually sought by main stream coin collectors for some odd reason. the pool of active collectors for these medals is small but growing, a fact which would be clear to anyone who's tried to buy in the last several years and bolstered by the fact that the auctions have remained steady in number and growing in scope and quality. though there have always been specialist dealers who carried the items there are now many who have jumped on the bandwagon and inflated prices of ordinary medals in much the same way that the Registry concept has inflated the prices of Modern issues. thopse are the ones that are getting out and it's a bit frustrating knowing that more than a couple may be forum members. that's been a sword that's cut both ways, though, bringing better quality items to market and firming up some availability numbers at the same time.
i have encountered more than my fair share of sellers who are nothing more than long term collectors of this interesting series, long term collectors who have reached a point in their lives when it's time to sell. i first noticed this trend in early 2001(though it no doubt existed much earlier judging from the old catalogs i've seen and the flips that come with some of the items), prompted most probably by the internet boom and the current "up" coin market, since most SC$ collectors are also mainstream coin collectors. there are currently about half a dozen outlets i buy from which offer auctions at least 2-3 times per year each. this is where most of the quality items are sold, as well as eBay, along with Exonumia dealers. this fact won't end when the group you perceive to be making this market are done and gone. the prices may be a bit higher but it'll be worth it in the end.
i look at it this way: these "MarketMakers" have done the footwork to put the medals in the market and i am willing to pay for that.
<< <i>i wouldn't get my hopes up for a 1000 >>
I would, but it looks like an HK-1000 might not even rate in the top dozen pieces in this auction. The HK-1000 is practically common compared to some. For example, HK-11 is probably rarer overall, not even considering that the specimen in this auction is MS-65, top pop by 20 points over the only other one graded.
Census watchers might have noticed a very interesting item show up on the NGC online census earlier this year. If you haven't noticed yet, go to the list and check the entry that is third from the end. A nice little birdy tells me that that piece will be in the upcoming Heritage auction. Yeah, it's only XF, but who cares?
It looks to me like Heritage started listing the uncertified lots first, and is now working through the certified pieces. I'm looking forward to seeing the next 400 lots, and pictures for all of them. I predict some astronomical prices, and I don't expect to win even a single lot, but there's nothing wrong with drooling...
jonathan
my perspective with these medals is that they parrallel U.S. Coinage a lot closer than many realize. the prices for the choice items climbs, the prices for the rare items climbs, the prices for the choice, rare items hits ever higher levels and the common items will level out and fall back. that was a point i alluded to in the opener, my "difficult choice" as it were. my solution has been to sharpen the focus of my collection and to buy the best i can find. things are progressing nicely!!
dealmakr
10k will not even be close for that piece.
dealmakr
of this material have lightened up. Thus, it would not be
unusual if the common stuff and average grades soften in
the immediate future. I believe that the top grade, non messed with
specimens will be strong. also, when the new HK book comes to market
later this year, it should prove a boost for many of the scarcer medals.
This is a lovely part of the coin and medal market and though subject to
recent run up in prices, still seems not unreasonable for scarce to rare top grade
specimens. While Fear and Greed due tend to rule markets, patience and prudence
usually prevail in the long run.
Camelot
I am actually cataloging that sale as we speak. I should have about 100 more lots completed by this weekend. I don't know about the images though......not my department.
<< <i>Dennis, do you have a final tally on the number of Lots?? >>
I do not, but I will try to get that answer for you. I have 160 total, but I know there are others working on this project. 500 +/- is probably close.
I think So-Called Dollars will do quite nicely over the coming months and years....
Camelot
I will tell you that there are errors in some of the listings. In the SCDs that they've cataloged of mine (only about 50% of mine so far) there are 3 errors. They are supposedly working to fix that. Dennis, can you help?
And the reason I am selling my stuff is to afford more Columbiana stuff which I have found truly interests me. There won't be a Columbian piece from my collection in the Heritage sale, but just about everything else I have will be. That's part of what I like about exonumia. You can collect by event, size, shape, color, metal content, body parts (well maybe only Marty), animals, etc. I have decided to focus on an event which got me into so-called dollars in the first place.
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
the phenomenon that really intrigues and stymies me is that i seem to have chosen a few areas that attract keen interest and well-heeled collectors!!!
<< <i>i wouldn't get my hopes up for a 1000 >>
HK-1000
<< <i>I would spill the beans that a much finer set including most of the finest graded will soon make its way to Goldburgs Auction.....the owner is just waiting for the right time.... they are nice ones..... the HK market is quite strong, but like any other segment, a few over zelous collectors can push some very common pieces to very high levels.... >>
Can you tell us if this collection contains an HK-485 or 358?
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
There seem to be a lot of uncertified medals that often appear on eBay, so I don't expect anything spectacular from those.
The HK-1000 and 1001 should be worth watching.
Anyone see an obvious problem with it?
<< <i>A question for the So-Called Dollar experts – Why would the owner not take the effort to get this medal certified prior to the auction?
Anyone see an obvious problem with it?
I'm not personally seeing a problem with it, but maybe I'm just not looking at the right thing. I know the consigner of this one who frequently has good material not certified. I don't know if it's been tried or not. If it was me, I'd certify it before selling it.
Hoard the keys.
<< <i>What makes it a so called dollar? >>
Hibler and Kappen set rules for a SCD even though they frequently broke their own rules.
From the Hibler and Kappen book, they defined so-called dollars this way:
This present work is restricted to medals of an exposition, commemorative, monetary and kindred nature. ...From the beginning, however, it was necessary to establish the following specific limitations in order to contain our efforts within a manageable perimeter:
1. United States only.
2. Minimum diameter - Size 21 (1-5/16 inch or 33mm).
3. Maximum diameter - Size 28 (1-3/4 inch or 45mm); but silver Bryan Dollars are listed.
4. No holed or looped material unless struck plain also. Our Nos. 1 through 3 are the sole exceptions.
5. No plastic, fiber or similar material unless issued also in one or more metals.
6. No purely presidential or political medals.
7. No school, college or athletic medals; no coin club or U.S. Armed Forces medals.
8. No calender or store cards; no trade tokens or emergency money.
What it amounts to is a medal of a certain size that was issued primarily for celebration. A lot of expositions and fairs. Sometimes a person or monument.
Hoard the keys.
well, the obvious answer is that it's listed in the Hibler-Kappen book and meets the requirements set forth as to size, theme and composition. it's a variety of the more common yet still "Rare" HK-210 which was struck in aluminum, this HK-1006 example being silver.
my question about a medal like this-----what happens if/when it's determined that more than five pieces exist?? will a medal than be re-listed in the general section, in this instance as HK-210a??? the way the current market for SC$'s is moving i wouldn't be surprised to see this start to happen for several of the 1000 series medals. strong prices and active buyers tend to do that, bring things out of closets!!!
The next edition should have a new or modified numbering system that will relieve the issue.
<< <i>Any one know how many new HK numbers will be awarded?
Is it in the.... A. Score
B. Hundreds
C. Thousand
?????????????????????????? >>
Yes.
Is it in the.... A. Score
B. Hundreds
C. Thousand
??????????????????????????
Camelot