Silver is falling?

aus3000tin · June 25, 2007 3:48PM

Seems the price of silver is falling.
I guess it's time to buy some more.

robkool · June 25, 2007 3:49PM

Maybe...

storm888 · June 25, 2007 3:53PM

I would wait a few days.

Deadhorse · June 25, 2007 4:56PM

Of course it's falling. I've spent almost 25K on 90% coins and common silver dollars in just the last few weeks.

Usually silver settles in for the summer around Memorial Day with little movement till mid-August, looks like it was late this year.

Yes, I'd call it a buying opportunity. OTOH, 100 ounce bars aren't near as easy to find as they used to be, at least not without a larger than usual premium.

Still, I'm buying 90% coins and bars when the price is right.

Silver still has a lot of legs left, it will do quite a bit better than gold in the next couple years, IMO, and I expect gold to really take off.

Deadhorse · June 25, 2007 4:57PM

<< I would wait a few days. >>

I wouldn't wait long, I believe we are very near the floor right now.

coinnut86 · June 25, 2007 5:03PM

You think gold will be at $750 by Aug 1?

Deadhorse · June 25, 2007 5:14PM

<< You think gold will be at $750 by Aug 1? >>

Summer is a time of little movement for precious metals, in general.

I'd say no, not by August 1st.

December 1st will have us looking back at these prices and thinking what a bargain we could have had.

RedTiger · June 25, 2007 5:31PM

I see a good deal of short term risk in both gold and silver, with modest short term upside. Long term the sky is the limit. Short term, I don't see any need to hurry to buy.

Silver could retest $10 from today's $12.83. Not saying it will happen, but that is a lot of downside risk for folks thinking about putting in serious money.

As always, I suggest the average person ignore the short term fluctuations and buy slowly in a steady manner when getting in, and sell in a steady manner when getting out and be happy with an average price. Most amateurs that attempt to time the markets fail, a good percentage fail in a big way and lose their shirts. Maybe 5% to 10% will be successful at timing. Unfortunately, almost every amateur thinks they will be the exception. I say go with the odds and forget about timing and be happy to get an average price, and you'll be ahead of 75% of the amateur market timers.

RedneckHB · June 25, 2007 11:20PM

SLV broke its uptrend. Likely target is $10.

garsmith · June 26, 2007 12:04AM

Time to hold and maybe soon time to buy

RedTiger · June 26, 2007 12:23AM

Ouch down 41 cents to $12.41.

As always, be careful. This is not the time to be aggressively buying. It is mostly amateurs that think they can catch the exact day of the bottom. Most pros wait for a safer time and let the amateurs play superhero.

asin · June 26, 2007 12:28AM

silver $14.00 by Xmass gold $750.00 by Xmass

good time to buy silver and gold.

storm888 · June 26, 2007 12:57AM

My tea-leaves say we may soon get a chance to buy
somewhere between $10.00 and $11.00.

$8.90 to $9.30 seems to be close to worst case.

MANY people here need to readjust how they calculate
inflation pressures. Most of us tend to think inflation is
about the government printing money; the market does
not see it that way. The market tends to guage inflation
by looking ONLY at pricing pressures.

Housing is no where near the final flush. Prices could
easily fall 25%+ in the next 36-months. That is deflationary
in the view of the folks who make the metals markets.

It is not a bad thing to buy silver on the way down. It is
even OK to buy some today; just don't spend all of your
cash at once.

PerryHall · June 26, 2007 1:02AM

<< silver $14.00 by Xmass gold $750.00 by Xmass

good time to buy silver and gold. >>

Gold is also falling---down $8.00.

eddyemack · June 26, 2007 1:05AM

it's not falling, it's going down with the snakes. what's the problem? do we buy more? is it a correction? this is the biggest swing in some time.

RedneckHB · June 26, 2007 1:06AM

<< My tea-leaves say we may soon get a chance to buy
somewhere between $10.00 and $11.00.

$8.90 to $9.30 seems to be close to worst case.

MANY people here need to readjust how they calculate
inflation pressures. Most of us tend to think inflation is
about the government printing money; the market does
not see it that way. The market tends to guage inflation
by looking ONLY at pricing pressures.

Housing is no where near the final flush. Prices could
easily fall 25%+ in the next 36-months. That is deflationary
in the view of the folks who make the metals markets.

It is not a bad thing to buy silver on the way down. It is
even OK to buy some today; just don't spend all of your
cash at once. >>

But, but, the guys on TV tell me home prices NEVER go down.

TwoSides2aCoin · June 26, 2007 1:09AM

if it is, then BUY BUY BUY
coins made of silver

especially my widgets on ebay

Deadhorse · June 26, 2007 2:38AM

Ouch!

This is unusual, even for this time of year. We rarely see this large a drop in such a short time.

ChrisRx · June 26, 2007 2:42AM

I too am waiting for at least $10 (or slightly less) silver

Russ · June 26, 2007 2:44AM

Of course silver is dropping. I felt sorry for a guy recently and bought a bunch of crap morgans at 9X.

Russ, NCNE

basestealer · June 26, 2007 3:53AM

Another argument could be that silver has been overpriced for 4 years now. It wasn't that long ago it was $5. I'm not concerned. The silver I have in my possession, I had no intention of selling anytime soon. Whether the price is $5 an ounce or $20 an ounce, I still own the same amount of silver that I did before the price change. The likely driving force behind the dip is talk of interest rate hikes, which would strengthen the US dollar. The main reason silver spiked so high to begin with is because our dollar was being devalued at a rapid rate (intentionally) to boost US exports. Of course, going back 80 years or so, candy bars have been a better investment than precious metals. Just about everything has been. Even inflation is a better bet most years.

fishcooker · June 26, 2007 3:57AM

Good luck to those who think today's price is low.

jmski52 · June 26, 2007 3:59AM

Of course, going back 80 years or so, candy bars have been a better investment than precious metals.

I'm not sure that I'd want an 80 year old candy bar. The ones I've got are 5 years old, and they aren't very good already!

Russ · June 26, 2007 4:02AM

<< Of course, going back 80 years or so, candy bars have been a better investment than precious metals.

I'm not sure that I'd want an 80 year old candy bar. The ones I've got are 5 years old, and they aren't very good already >>

A Twinkie would probably be fine, though.

Russ, NCNE

basestealer · June 26, 2007 4:10AM

Russ is correct. A lady at a garage sale was selling original boxes of Twinkie snack packs from the 1950's. I said eww. She opened a few and ate them in front of the crowd. They looked delicious. And, you can't eat silver bars. At least the one time I tried biting into one to give it the "test" like I saw on television, I had a $1500 dental bill afterwards. The dentist informed me that test was to be used on gold, not silver. Funny that, because I bit into gold once too and wound up with a silver filling. It's all so warped.

jmski52 · June 26, 2007 4:21AM

A 50 year old Twinkie? So, butylated hydroxytoluene really works? Cool!

Russ · June 26, 2007 4:28AM

<< A 50 year old Twinkie? So, butylated hydroxytoluene really works? Cool! >>

Eating large quantities of Twinkies is a well kept longevity secret.

Russ, NCNE

CalGold · June 26, 2007 8:28AM

The usual gold cheer leaders don't sound so sanguine today. This from Kitco:

"This erosion was in the making for some time now [certainly since the scary June 8 drop]," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers. "People ignored the subtext of risk aversion becoming trendy -- and now they are suffering the consequences." "Technicals have converged with short-term fundamentals to yield a pivotal tone change in the market," he said in e-mailed comments.

Steven Jon Kaplan, a senior editor at TrueContrarian.com, points out that the strongest physical buying of gold comes from countries such as India, where most of the buying is done for festivals, holidays, and other special religious and family events.
But "there are very few such holidays scheduled between now and September, so I think it is likely that gold will continue to decline for at least the next two months," he said.
Kaplan expects gold prices to fall below $600 an ounce within a few months

Gold pundits have not considered large-scale situations, such as severe stock market setbacks, in any other context than an immediate ostensible run-up in gold prices," he said in e-mailed comments.
But "in the aftermath of such events, for investors who are trying to meet margin calls [which have no patience for tardiness], the precious metals portion of a portfolio is among the first to be liquidated," he explained

ziggy29 · June 26, 2007 8:33AM

One of the perils of precious metals investing (or hedging) is that many of the big players are very leveraged. That tends to exaggerate the upside and exacerbate the downside. Once the big guys decide it's time to start selling, no amount of market fundamentals matter. The one saving grace is that in the long term, gold and silver prices will more or less mirror the fundamentals underlying it (inflation, strength/weakness of the dollar, et cetera). So for those who are patient bulls, these occasional valleys are the chance to use the cash you've saved up since the last valley to increase your position. But not all in -- it's never wise to grasp hard at a falling dagger.

fc · June 26, 2007 8:34AM

"Technicals have converged with short-term fundamentals to yield a pivotal tone change in the market," he said in e-mailed comments.

i cannot take anyone seriously when they try to sound smarter
then they are.

in the tech arena, we would call him a suit.

CalGold · June 26, 2007 8:51AM

<< in the tech arena, we would call him a suit. >>

Isn't a suit the guy whose job it is to keep the techies from squandering the company's money developing technology that has no market potential? Or is that a VC?

CG

HonoluluDude · June 26, 2007 8:51AM

I expect gold/silver prices to rebound pretty quickly once this sell off is over.

Every year the same thing happens: gold/silver get clobbered and then
the buying resumes. You gotta expect high beta volatility in tiny markets
like the precious metals, it's the nature of the beast.

Russ · June 26, 2007 9:11AM

<< Isn't a suit the guy whose job it is to keep the techies from squandering the company's money developing technology that has no market potential? >>

Actually, it's the other way around. See: eBay.

Russ, NCNE

BECOKA · June 26, 2007 9:16AM

I would buy gold now and sell in December.

richardshipp · June 26, 2007 9:19AM

Well, I will confess to a deal with apmex today.... what do they call that........ averaging down?

HonoluluDude · June 26, 2007 9:21AM

<< Well, I will confess to a deal with apmex today.... what do they call that........ averaging down? >>

No I think they call it "knife catching".

cladking · June 26, 2007 10:06AM

<< Russ is correct. A lady at a garage sale was selling original boxes of Twinkie snack packs from the 1950's. I said eww. She opened a few and ate them in front of the crowd. They looked delicious. . >>

You do of course realize that these things are just grease, sugar and chemicals.
If you compress them they still taste the same, I presume, but turn into a black tar.

The good thing about not gloating when silver goes up is that you don't have to
eat crow when it goes down.

The forces that are combining to push the dollar down are not going to change in
the near future. Interest rate increases would strenghten the dollar but are only
temporary since they can't go up indefinitely. There's some doubt that ANY signif-
icant increase in rates is even possible since the economy is fragile and might be
wrecked.

There's still the fact that there is a finite amount of silver and it decreases every
year. In bad economies it decreases a little and in good ones, a lot. I'd bet there
will be people selling twinkies on the streets of New York before silver drops below
$8.

If the interest rate increase fails, as it quite likely, look for renewed enthusiasm in
the metals.

coinkat · June 26, 2007 10:51AM

I am surprised SPAM was not mentioned... I bet if one looks hard enough, there are some unopened cans that predate Lend Lease...

cladking · June 26, 2007 10:58AM

<< I am surprised SPAM was not mentioned... I bet if one looks hard enough, there are some unopened cans that predate Lend Lease... >>

Probably. But Spam is real food even if it isn't good quality. Food in cans will
sometimes be good for many decades and if well canned could be good almost
indefinitely.

Real food that isn't canned normally rots or otherwise decomposes whether it's
in plastic or not.

CalGold · June 26, 2007 10:58AM

<< But Spam is real food >>

Say what?

CG

21Walker · June 26, 2007 11:04AM

Not for long.........Rick

cladking · June 26, 2007 12:44PM

<< 

<< But Spam is real food >>

Say what?

CG >>

That's a tough one to swallow, isn't it.

Silver is falling?

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