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Looking for predictions. At what price will the 20th anniversary peak and....
PerryHall
Posts: 47,532 ✭✭✭✭✭
.....when do you think it will peak. Once it peaks, do you think it will level off or, once the bubble bursts, will it fall like a rock. Timing will be everything to the folks that bought these sets strictly to turn a profit.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
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Certainly a large number were bought by speculators. But I think a large share of those have been resold now, as a 200 - 300% gain was mighty impressive, and why not take the profit they were purchased for. Now I think the fast run-up is due to lass supply for sale, and buyers who may now realise they are not getting cheaper. Still, I can't imagine a lot of buyers at this price....
TorinoCobra71
-David
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I just sold my only set yesterday. They are WAY over rated for a 250K mintage coin. Just my opinion.
-David >>
Then consider the 2001 Buffalo with a 500k mintage.
<< <i>
<< <i>I just sold my only set yesterday. They are WAY over rated for a 250K mintage coin. Just my opinion.
-David >>
Then consider the 2001 Buffalo with a 500k mintage. >>
Or the 1999 Silver proof set, which has increased in value over 10X, with a mintage approaching a million.
I think the 20th Anniversary ASE sets have more room to increase. At some point, they'll need to take a rest, but where that point is, I have no idea. It could very well shock us all. There's no law, except for the law of supply and demand, that says that point can't be well over $1,000 a set.
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
Silver 300% profit
Gold/Silver EVEN
Gold 200% profit
Still currently have a personal Silver set of 70/70/70 in a NGC Multi Holder.
Initially was not going to be for sale but .......
dam they are climbing fast
that you have to be careful to sell on the way up not on the way down ...
- Jimi Hendrix
We are seeing an interesting market: buyers who want them are driving prices up. Speculators who sold at $200-$400 are rebuying them to ride the increase. At some point we will see even strong hands start to loosen, and the supply will increase a bit. Just enough to slow the ascent, but not enough to cause a pull-back.
roadrunner
<< <i>Like most markets, when everyone is talking about how high they can go......it is already late in the game. >>
Very true...normally. But it is no longer forum members who are driving this market. Very, very few of us are holding any of these coins any longer. This is not like the platinum market that we controlled 35% of. Now it's in collectors' hands (along with possibly a few speculators).
When my neighbor starts telling me how valuable these will be in the future...then I'll worry. But the CU forums isn't a cross-section of the average population.
When my neighbor starts telling me how valuable these will be in the future...then I'll worry. But the CU forums isn't a cross-section of the average population.
If forces outside the market are now driving this market then I'd be even more afraid (these are speculators and not collectors). That kind of demand can end as soon as promoters (ie end users) pull the plug. Prices free fall. I think that this forum represents the general public fairly when it comes to recent mint issues. At least from what I've read it here it seems like many members still own these anniv. sets are looking for the absolute score before getting out.
Your neighbor will never be in the loop when it comes to US Mint products. That's a bit over the top. If anything he'd be telling you that you're nuts to be holding on to these. He may someday be telling you about gold and silver bullion (they do make the newspaper) but not about anniv sets. Maybe one or two people who put their life savings into them will make the nightly news. That's always good PR for politicians to create a new consumer protection bill.
roadrunner
<< <i>If forces outside the market are now driving this market then I'd be even more afraid (these are speculators and not collectors). That kind of demand can end as soon as promoters (ie end users) pull the plug. Prices free fall. >>
As I mentioned before, I think there are very few speculators in this market. At this point it is almost entirely collectors.
<< <i>I think that this forum represents the general public fairly when it comes to recent mint issues >>
Then who did we sell the GW FDCCs to? Who did we sell the 2006-W Plats to? Who did we sell the 2001 Buffalos to? This forum represents people who know the utmost about the hobby and recent mint issues. The vast, vast majority of collectors don't know about mint issues until long after forum members do. And it looks like they are finally starting to hear about the 20th Anniversary Sets
They are not holding them in qty for any other reason other than to speculate on their price. And there's no problem with that. I wish I was holding some too only to dump as prices got higher. Would imagine that the vast majority of anniv set holders are specs.
I wasn't aware that this forum had the buying power to purchase a large portion of the entire mintage of things like buffalo dollars and anniv sets. In Wondercoin's BST thread he indicates that the anniv set market cap is around $125 MILL. And that's only one issue.
A specialized single denomination platinum issue is one thing. Buying up 30% of all the 2006 silver anniv sets is entirely different.
I would say the forum's influence on that would be insignificant.
The primary reason the main collecting body hears about any mint issue is when the price is driven up by the specs (dealers, investors, and in the know collectors) hoarding and buying. That's when the public thinks they're missing the boat and jumps in to buy the anchors.
When will it end? When Joe Consumer runs out of credit and is more interested in making his house payments than buying sets.
And yes, they'll fall like rocks as everyone looks to get liquid at the same time. I see no difference in how this current market of classics and moderns will end vs. 1980 and 1990. Seen it twice before up close. 2010 or whatever year it may occur on, will be no different. One would have to go back to the roll crazed market of the early 1960's to find similarities to today's mint made manias.
When money runs tight, things will correct badly. Believe me, no one will be thinking of hanging on to their $1000, $2000 or $3000
anniv sets when they paid peanuts for them. All the new found collectors of the past few years will find different hobbies.
roadrunner
<< <i>
The primary reason the main collecting body hears about any mint issue is when the price is driven up by the specs (dealers, investors, and in the know collectors) hoarding and buying. That's when the public thinks they're missing the boat and jumps in to buy the anchors.
roadrunner >>
The difference is, this set isn't going to be an anchor. It has two key date coins in it whose mintage is way below the number of collectors building sets of them. That equals constant demand which will keep the prices of these sets high. Look at a price chart of the 95W proof. The chart of the 20th anniversary sets will look very similar to that.
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
in a couple years you'll see $3000 for the reverse proof, $2000 for the uncirculated, and $100 for the regular proof... $5100
First, due to the TV coin promoters, eBay, etc... the collectors now realize these sets are out there and that as usual they have been sleeping in the past when they could get them from the Mint. Now they know they need to get them.... and there is also the realization that the Mint is probably not going to mint more of the reverse proofs. A one time deal... at least for now. The RP will remain a key coin due to the collectors demand, and prices will reflect that.
The second factor, I believe the flippers and promoters have been taken by surprise. How it usually works for the flippers and promoters in the past, they stock up on the item, ride the initial demand and make the profits. Then the prices stabilize or drop as demand ceases or interest leaves the coin issue. The flippers and promoters made the quick profit and got out before the price drop. We actually saw some of this with the First Label RP 70's.... very high prices at the start but have since dropped. The flippers and promoters are kind of like the pump and dump stock brokers..... stock up then dump during the heating up phase, whether artificial or real.
But in this case, the promoters and flippers have been caught by surprise. They did the usual.... and made their quick profits at $250 per set or whatever level. But the market has not performed like before. Instead of leveling off or dropping around the time the flippers got out..... surprise.... the market just kept going. Now the promoters and flippers realize they sold way too soon.... and are now trying to get back in to ride the wave some more. So.... we have more promoters and flippers trying to get back in.... but now they have to really compete with the collectors out there who are now aware of the desirability of the sets.
Kind of a perfect storm right now. But even perfect storms must end.
I really do not see much of a downside to the sets yet.... so I really don't think they will plummet in price when things cool down some. Most likely stabilize around 800 - 1000. As usual, JMO.
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
The Reeded Edge
<< <i>In the know dealers and collectors holding large quantities of anniv sets >>
Which dealers and collectors have large quantities? How large are the quantities? Your post says you don't believe the CU forum members ever had a large enough quantity of them to influence the prices, but this "mysterious cabal" of 'dealers and collectors' does?
P.S. Since your crystal ball seems to be fully charged, when do you expect the market for 1995-W Silver Eagles to collapse? I'd sure like to be able to pick up one for a couple hundred dollars.
I've always said that dealers are collectors and support the market in many facets.
When will the 1995W ASE fall in value? I already stated that earlier.
When the credit runs out for Joe consumer. Will Joe be hanging on to his $5000 ASE when he can't afford to pay for his kids college?
Nope. There will be lots of similar hard decisions for collectors and specs to make in the next 5 years. It could be 2009 or 2012 or 2015. But the spigot will be turned off and a steep general coin market sell off will occur (classics, gold, legendary rarities, key dates, ASE's, anniv sets, etc will all be affected). I would expect a 1995W
ASE to be particurlarly affected. My crystal ball does not tell me this, but only common sense. A 1995W ASE will not hold value in a recession. Not even close. A 50% fall in value would be the starting point. In past hyped up coin markets a 50% retention of value was for good coins. More speculative issues fell to 30% of previous value.
Now please tell me the contrarian view of how 90% of typical coin collectors and consumers will choose to keep their coins rather than pay for food, rent, mortgage, living expenses, energy, college, etc.
In other words, while it will be different this time than in previous market sell offs. These same people will sell off their stocks, bonds, and 2nd homes....but keep their ASE's?? The above 90% are not your hard core forum types who have weathered storms for 10-30 years already, but your more recently issued collectors and hoarders who have jumped on the wagon in the past few years as prices have moved up. Those will be the first ones to leave as they see dropping prices for the first time in their short numismatic careers.
They will be bristling with indignancy at how such rarities can fall in value. I mean since when do rare coins with 250,000 minted (all still in perfect condition in collectors/specs hands) fall in value? It can't happen right? Ask me how the world's finest 1794 dollar fell in value by around 65-70% in the last bull market? Isn't that a key date in demand by every seasoned major player? (only 125 in existence). And that was not the exception either.
My crystal ball just went out. Time to recharge...........
roadrunner
i would have thought you would have ignored the speculation
on mint products. from my perspective, the frenzy has reached
its peak. i determine this by how many 20th ann posts we have
on the frontpage at once.
<< <i>i determine this by how many 20th ann posts we have >>
Once again, the level of knowledge here is NOT normally replicated in the "real world." Many, many collectors are just now finding out about them.
RR: When a major recession hits, you are right. There will be a great many things that go down in value (and that increase in value once the recession ends). My apologies: I momentarily forgot your stance on our economy.
"when." Only insane FED liquidity since 2002 has kept it at bay. So the next step is lots of inflation.....followed by a steeper recession.
It's taken anywhere from 2 to 7 years based on past markets (or longer) for coins to start recovering from a recession. There are very few who decide to hang on through all that. At the first sign of that ASE falling 10% in price, people will be heading for the exits...and quickly.
But it's good to know that we agree that a recession will probably take out everything we hold near and dear to us in coins. An 1853 NA quarter in Fine will NOT go down in value. That is my 1st prediction for the recession (you heard it hear first). So if you have a roll of that date.....hang on to it (lol).
roadrunner
Yes, eventually it will end. And when it does.... the items that have been run up the most usually take the biggest hit. That will include the 1995W and the 2006 20th anniversary sets and many more.
The big question is.... when will that point come? In 2-3 years like the market report mentioned above seems to think?
Meanwhile..... until that bottom drops out..... I don't see the price on these 20th anniversary sets decreasing for now.... as long as people can still charge up on those credit cards, etc!!! or borrow on what is left on their home equity...... or borrow on their 401K.......
I'd be unhappy if everything doubled again over the next few months.
Well, OK, that's not entirely true. I got my money out, kept two sets for collecting purposes and made a nice profit, so I can't complain!