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Question about population reports from TPGs
Elem21wed
Posts: 101
I'm new to coin collecting, but have a general knowledge of "hobby" markets. I know that price is driven by the rariety and condition of a piece. But lets get to the meat of the matter. I am interested in population reports and the possible way they can influence the price of coins. I may be totally ignorant and will take your abuse later.
Lets say the year is 1985 and Peter buys an 1881 CC Morgan raw. He sends it to a grading company and they slab and tag the coin at MS-62. Peter is happy and holds onto the coin for 10 years. In 1995 he sells the coin to a dealer and makes a nice return on his investment. The dealer looks at the coin and thinks it's under graded. So he cuts it out of the plastic and sends it to the same grading comapny where it comes back again at MS-62. Later that year he sends it in again and it comes back MS-63.
Paul is in the market for a CC Morgan and the price is right and buys the 1881 from the dealer at cost plus juice because he wants the coin. Paul runs into money problems a few years later and sells his collection to another collector, Mary. Mary's a coin cook. She cracks the 1881 out of its MS-63 plastic. She dips and tones it and sends it to a different company for grading, it comes back body bagged. So she holds onto it for a few months before resubmitting it. She has the coin make the rounds at all the top teir graders and it comes back either BB or at various grades from MS-61 - to MS-63. Over the years Mary becomes a better cook and gets the toning just right and the fields extra bright. She sends in the coin to a second teir company and it get tagged MS-64.
I know this is a hypothetical, but is it possible for a coin to have been submitted over a span of ten years and be represented as many as five or six times on the population reports of grading companies? What percentage of the population reports do you think represent resubmitted coins, if any at all? How do you think this reflects on the market value? Do grading companies have ways of updating their population reports?
Again abuse and comments welcome.
Chris
Lets say the year is 1985 and Peter buys an 1881 CC Morgan raw. He sends it to a grading company and they slab and tag the coin at MS-62. Peter is happy and holds onto the coin for 10 years. In 1995 he sells the coin to a dealer and makes a nice return on his investment. The dealer looks at the coin and thinks it's under graded. So he cuts it out of the plastic and sends it to the same grading comapny where it comes back again at MS-62. Later that year he sends it in again and it comes back MS-63.
Paul is in the market for a CC Morgan and the price is right and buys the 1881 from the dealer at cost plus juice because he wants the coin. Paul runs into money problems a few years later and sells his collection to another collector, Mary. Mary's a coin cook. She cracks the 1881 out of its MS-63 plastic. She dips and tones it and sends it to a different company for grading, it comes back body bagged. So she holds onto it for a few months before resubmitting it. She has the coin make the rounds at all the top teir graders and it comes back either BB or at various grades from MS-61 - to MS-63. Over the years Mary becomes a better cook and gets the toning just right and the fields extra bright. She sends in the coin to a second teir company and it get tagged MS-64.
I know this is a hypothetical, but is it possible for a coin to have been submitted over a span of ten years and be represented as many as five or six times on the population reports of grading companies? What percentage of the population reports do you think represent resubmitted coins, if any at all? How do you think this reflects on the market value? Do grading companies have ways of updating their population reports?
Again abuse and comments welcome.
Chris
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Comments
<< <i>is it possible for a coin to have been submitted over a span of ten years and be represented as many as five or six times on the population reports of grading companies? >>
Yes, sometimes even more.
<< <i>What percentage of the population reports do you think represent resubmitted coins, if any at all? >>
It depends on the series.
<< <i>Do grading companies have ways of updating their population reports? >>
Yes, they'll buy back inserts from cracked slabs.
<< <i>is it possible for a coin to have been submitted over a span of ten years and be represented as many as five or six times on the population reports of grading companies? >>
Yes and it happens all the time. The pop reports must be taken with a grain of salt for just this reason. PCGS will take back labels out of cracked out slabs (and pay you 50¢ each for them) so they can update the pop reports but I would imagine the percentage of labels they get back is miniscule.
In reality, I doubt it happens the majority of the time.
I think the way to read the Pop report is one number relative to the other -- It doesn't mean that there are EXACTLY 100 64's and 50 65's -- instead see it as meaning that of "worthy" submissions, 64's are TWICE as likely as 65's. It's one estimate of rarity, but by no means the final answer.
Rex
There are coins in the pop report that show a greater slabbed population than the number of coins known to exist for that issue.
Clearly, as time goes on the pop reports become more and more "inflated" due to resubmissions but this generally affects Unc coins at the high end of the scale as well as those with large price jumps between grades.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
Sean
-Mark Twain
<< <i>What are some reasons a dealer wouldn't send in labels for coins with population under 200 >>
Lazy, doesn't care, not worth his time, etc...
<< <i>What are some reasons a dealer wouldn't send in labels for coins with population under 200, if it would benefit him to do so (as the coin owner)? I can understand why if the coin's population is 2100. >>
Nostalgia, sometimes it's just cool to have around as a reminder of the coins you've handled.
50 cents per insert also isn't worth the effort to many people.