Are So-Called Dollars Going to Stumble?

291fifth · April 22, 2007 2:07AM

They're hot...maybe too hot. Are greedy sellers going to kill the market before it really gets going?

ColonialCoinUnion · April 22, 2007 2:28AM

<< They're hot...maybe too hot. Are greedy sellers going to kill the market before it really get going? >>

I really don't see that happening.

Fletcher · April 22, 2007 2:39AM

Interesting question as I have been considering a few SCDs lately. In my inexperienced and humble opinion, it looks to me like someone or some group have successfully become market makers for the series and have run up prices to extremely high leves as of late. Plus, a book is coming out to add to the hype. I like a lot of SCDs but have a feeling that they will go the way of early commems ... nice to look at, a nice history behind them, but will never make it to mainstream numismatics thus causing prices to fall sharply once the the hype dies downs and the market makers stop supporting the elevated levels. In addition, you need look no further than our forum to see that SCD afficianados like keets and mad marty are unloading their inventory as we speak ... they may be saving the higher grades, but if they thought that the market was going to skyrocket they wouldn't be offloading so much of their stash. However, I have been wrong before and there may still me money to be made if you are quick in and quick out ...

segoja · April 22, 2007 3:46AM

Only after Marty corners the market.

He'll be Hunt #2

longtimecollector · April 22, 2007 4:05AM

Good thing you spelled "HUNT" with an "H" !!!!

DUIGUY · April 22, 2007 4:06AM

<<In addition, you need look no further than our forum to see that SCD afficianados like keets and mad marty are unloading their inventory as we speak ... they may be saving the higher grades,>>

I have not sold squat, and have no plans to do so. Of course as we all know plans can change .

Longacre · April 22, 2007 4:19AM

Isn't there a new book coming out that will create even more demand for these?

cladking · April 22, 2007 4:21AM

Most of these are simply too scarce to make a real mainstream market.

MadMarty · April 22, 2007 4:22AM

<< Only after Marty corners the market.

He'll be Hunt #2 >>

I have been selling mine, I'm now onto bigger and better things!!

Zoins · April 22, 2007 4:26AM

<< Most of these are simply too scarce to make a real mainstream market. >>

Keets has said the same thing IIRC. Of course, scarcity is one reason why I like them

longtimecollector · April 22, 2007 4:42AM

<< afficianados >>

Is that French for middle aged, overweight, poor eyesight, balding, white guy ?????

Zoins · April 22, 2007 4:44AM

<< 

<< afficianados >>

Is that French for middle aged, overweight, poor eyesight, balding, white guy ????? >>

That could be the Americanized version. I don't see as many overweight French guys

Zoins · April 22, 2007 5:02AM

I think Fletcher makes some good points.

Are there a sub-areas of numismatics that SCDs are similar to and can be compared to? It seems like most specialties are not mainstream.

Will SCD market development be similar to other exonumia areas, e.g. Hard Times and Civil War Tokens, or not?

tmot99 · April 22, 2007 5:10AM

<< Isn't there a new book coming out that will create even more demand for these? >>

Yes, the book will be out this summer.

As for sellers making the market, I think it's buyers making the market. Sellers are only making the material available. The buyers on ebay are going crazy on these. An it's just not ebay. Take a look at the Heritage Auction archives and Stacks. Recent sales have been bringing HUGE dollars. Then on some, not so much. It's not like the sellers are setting up at shows and putting prices on their coins that are outrageous. Most are starting at 99 cents and then the market bids it on up.

Do I think the market will settle down? Yes. In the near future, no. I think that as US coins' prices kept going up, that many collectors, myself included, have begun to look for other interesting avenues to look at.

In regards to selling off, many people's interests change. Marty is looking into bigger and better. With SCDs, I found myself way too crazy, both with spending, and not having a focus on my collection. I have always been interested in the Columbian Expo and that's how I got into SCDs in the first place. To make funds available for my WCE stuff, I am selling off my other SCDs.

keets · April 22, 2007 12:48PM

In addition, you need look no further than our forum to see that SCD afficianados like keets and mad marty are unloading their inventory as we speak ... they may be saving the higher grades, but if they thought that the market was going to skyrocket they wouldn't be offloading so much of their stash.

this is partially a true statement and partially a misconception since what i've sold lately has been almost exclusively items from a hoard owned by a dealer, i'm just assisting him. all the same, i have sold items from my personal collection in the same fashion as coins. let me explain.

during the past 2-3 years there has been a very explosive growth in the collector base. i don't believe that specialty dealers have really increased, but as interest has grown some extra dealers have filled the demand by taking advantage of NGC certification as well as raw sales. keep in mind that SEGS, ICG and ANACS are all slabbing these but the primary focus is on NGC/NCS. this has caused increased sales of privately held collections and many items have started to prove their true availability. it's also been a time for collectors to find items they hadn't been able to locate previously and they have been willing to pay what it takes to get them. the final boost that pushed things over the edge has been when Heritage and Stacks/ANR had reasonably large catalogue listings for SC$'s, especially Heritage.

as i've been able to identify some true rarities and have had the chance to buy some of them, i've altered what i collect, focusing on a few expositions and items issued by a particular individual. medals which once attracted my attention were sold to finance the purchase of other items or to upgrade. by paying attention to sales and what other collectors have(both medals and the grades) i've also been able to learn what i should hold back. surely we've all done things with our U.S. Coinage collections along these same lines. time always teaches us what to keep, what to sell, what to look for and what we may never find; at least if we're paying attention it should teach us those things!!

as far as the original question-----Are greedy sellers going to kill the market before it really gets going?-----i think the market right now is strictly buyer driven. what's scary is that there are collectors with the means to buy whatever they'd like to own, and if they decide to enter some medals may dissappear and render rational prices as meaningless data. already some very choice items are skipping the usual channels and heading to Heritage where they automatically cost 15% more, so in that sense greddy sellers are to blame in part. with all that to consider i don't see any signs of a death at least not in the near future. to the contrary, i see vibrant growth as long as the coin market remains strong.

DUIGUY · April 22, 2007 12:56PM

<>

Yepper,

persaus · April 22, 2007 1:50PM

<< 

<< Only after Marty corners the market.

He'll be Hunt #2 >>

I have been selling mine, I'm now onto bigger and better things!! >>

Zoins · April 22, 2007 1:52PM

<< I'm now onto bigger and better things!! >>

SCMCs? So-Called Manhole Covers

Are So-Called Dollars Going to Stumble?

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