Prediction
Bear
Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
Those medals with HK numbers, will
double, in 12 - 18 months. That is all.
New HK Reference book due out in August.
double, in 12 - 18 months. That is all.
New HK Reference book due out in August.
There once was a place called
Camelot
Camelot
0
Comments
(Obviously, I agree with you.)
Ed. S.
(EJS)
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
and start grading these So Called Dollars.
Camelot
gonna win the last election.
Camelot
<< <i>Those medals with HK numbers, will
double, in 12 - 18 months. That is all.
New HK Reference book due out in August. >>
I think they already have! At least they seem to go for double what I am bidding!
<< <i>What do I know, I thought that Kerry was
gonna win the last election.
Maybe they will mint a Swift Boat coin in his honor!!
<< <i>
<< <i>What do I know, I thought that Kerry was
gonna win the last election.
Maybe they will mint a Swift Boat coin in his honor!! >>
That would be pretty neat if only to remember the controversy during the election. There's a Bush / Gore Presidential medal out there. Heads Bush is President, tails Gore is President.
<< <i>
<< <i>What do I know, I thought that Kerry was
gonna win the last election.
Maybe they will mint a Swift Boat coin in his honor!! >>
and maybe a purple colored heart on it for that WPOS
<< <i>Don't count the Eglit's out either... >>
SHHHHHH!!!!
Is it like a small fried egg
or is it a baby eagle.
Camelot
<< <i>What the heck is an eglit,
Is it like a small fried egg
or is it a baby eagle. >>
It's a baby egg.
Nathan Eglit wrote a book on Columbian Expo medals and tokens. He included some other stuff like badges and tickets, but it's mainly medals and tokens. You can see some of mine here. There are more on the so-called dollar page on that site too. However, not all so-called dollars are listed in the Eglit book and not all Eglits are so-called dollars.
<< <i>
<< <i>What the heck is an eglit,
Is it like a small fried egg
or is it a baby eagle. >>
It's a baby egg.
Nathan Eglit wrote a book on Columbian Expo medals and tokens. He included some other stuff like badges and tickets, but it's mainly medals and tokens. You can see some of mine here. There are more on the so-called dollar page on that site too. However, not all so-called dollars are listed in the Eglit book and not all Eglits are so-called dollars. >>
I predict that coal scrip will foloow the curtrent path of so called dollars.
You have a coin, it has a cool history, its exonumia and then, WOW folks get it. Wow, its a coin, it has history and gee, they can be bought for a relatively lower price.
Problem, So calleds will become much like a classic commem. Most of them cost a mint to buy one in decent much less good condition. Some are very affordable...For now.
Oh well, I just cant wait another 80 years to say, I told you so.......
I'm following this 1959 Silver Oregon Centennial (HK-557) which has several interested bidders that don't believe in sniping. There were only 50 minted and bidding is up to $306 with over 4 days to go. A tribute to the Oregon Half but very low mintage.
this particular item has the likelihood of being estimated correctly since it was still relatively new when the research was done. all the same, items struck as recently as 1950, such as HK-505, have grossly and enticingly under-reported mintages. the best advice for anyone unfamiliar to these medals is simple: buy the book and read(study) it, start some kind of dialogue with anyone who's further ahead of the curve than you and proceed cautiously at first as you open your wallet and access your Bank Account. there's no need to be the sheep who's sheared, but as Abe has predicted, the sky is certainly the limit. what these medals offer a collector is the chance to own beautifully executed pieces with legitimate historical reference points, available in high grades if you're fortunate as veritable bargains. put in proper perspective, coins with similar mintages(extant and otherwise), much less artistry and absolutely no historical perspective aside from the date or MM are easily out of the reach of most collectors in the grades that these medals can be found in.
just try to find a Silver coin with 50 struck that you can afford.........................
<< <i>it's important to remember that some of the information relating to mintages isn't necessarily correct. my experience teaches me that some medals which are supposed to be common are hard to locate while others which have been listed as Rare or Extremely Rare can be found with regularity. that's the nice thing about "UP" markets, they tend to shake things out of the sky and answer questions for us. another thing i see is items which had large mintages are easily found but rarely ocurr in grades higher than MS63, especially some of the older issues in the less familiar alloys of aluminum and white metal.
this particular item has the likelihood of being estimated correctly since it was still relatively new when the research was done. all the same, items struck as recently as 1950, such as HK-505, have grossly and enticingly under-reported mintages. the best advice for anyone unfamiliar to these medals is simple: buy the book and read(study) it, start some kind of dialogue with anyone who's further ahead of the curve than you and proceed cautiously at first as you open your wallet and access your Bank Account. there's no need to be the sheep who's sheared, but as Abe has predicted, the sky is certainly the limit. what these medals offer a collector is the chance to own beautifully executed pieces with legitimate historical reference points, available in high grades if you're fortunate as veritable bargains. put in proper perspective, coins with similar mintages(extant and otherwise), much less artistry and absolutely no historical perspective aside from the date or MM are easily out of the reach of most collectors in the grades that these medals can be found in.
just try to find a Silver coin with 50 struck that you can afford......................... >>
The most perplexing of which we would call a "hoard".
OH the stories...........Much like scrip.
<< <i>it's important to remember that some of the information relating to mintages isn't necessarily correct. my experience teaches me that some medals which are supposed to be common are hard to locate while others which have been listed as Rare or Extremely Rare can be found with regularity. that's the nice thing about "UP" markets, they tend to shake things out of the sky and answer questions for us. another thing i see is items which had large mintages are easily found but rarely ocurr in grades higher than MS63, especially some of the older issues in the less familiar alloys of aluminum and white metal.
this particular item has the likelihood of being estimated correctly since it was still relatively new when the research was done. all the same, items struck as recently as 1950, such as HK-505, have grossly and enticingly under-reported mintages. the best advice for anyone unfamiliar to these medals is simple: buy the book and read(study) it, start some kind of dialogue with anyone who's further ahead of the curve than you and proceed cautiously at first as you open your wallet and access your Bank Account. there's no need to be the sheep who's sheared, but as Abe has predicted, the sky is certainly the limit. what these medals offer a collector is the chance to own beautifully executed pieces with legitimate historical reference points, available in high grades if you're fortunate as veritable bargains. put in proper perspective, coins with similar mintages(extant and otherwise), much less artistry and absolutely no historical perspective aside from the date or MM are easily out of the reach of most collectors in the grades that these medals can be found in.
just try to find a Silver coin with 50 struck that you can afford......................... >>
Just an example of rarity ratings being all over the board. HK236 is listed as extremely rare with 21-50 pieces known. I purchased a nice uncirculated example on ebay about a year ago for $14.00 and they are quite readily available all the time on ebay.
market the same thing it did for the modern market; allow the col-
lector base to grow.
It takes a lot of inside knowledge and a little courage to be buying
these now. It's not unusual to see rare ones priced as commons and
common ones priced as rarities.
There will probably be big strides made in many areas of exonumia
caused by people being exposed to them for the first time with the
internet. Collectors of all sorts of items, historians, and other poten-
tially interested parties simply didn't know these things existed in the
past. Companies sometimes will try to put together medallic and pap-
er mementos of their past and usually fall far short with the tokens
and medals because they are so scarce.
<< <i>
<< <i>it's important to remember that some of the information relating to mintages isn't necessarily correct. my experience teaches me that some medals which are supposed to be common are hard to locate while others which have been listed as Rare or Extremely Rare can be found with regularity. that's the nice thing about "UP" markets, they tend to shake things out of the sky and answer questions for us. another thing i see is items which had large mintages are easily found but rarely ocurr in grades higher than MS63, especially some of the older issues in the less familiar alloys of aluminum and white metal.
this particular item has the likelihood of being estimated correctly since it was still relatively new when the research was done. all the same, items struck as recently as 1950, such as HK-505, have grossly and enticingly under-reported mintages. the best advice for anyone unfamiliar to these medals is simple: buy the book and read(study) it, start some kind of dialogue with anyone who's further ahead of the curve than you and proceed cautiously at first as you open your wallet and access your Bank Account. there's no need to be the sheep who's sheared, but as Abe has predicted, the sky is certainly the limit. what these medals offer a collector is the chance to own beautifully executed pieces with legitimate historical reference points, available in high grades if you're fortunate as veritable bargains. put in proper perspective, coins with similar mintages(extant and otherwise), much less artistry and absolutely no historical perspective aside from the date or MM are easily out of the reach of most collectors in the grades that these medals can be found in.
just try to find a Silver coin with 50 struck that you can afford......................... >>
Just an example of rarity ratings being all over the board. HK236 is listed as extremely rare with 21-50 pieces known. I purchased a nice uncirculated example on ebay about a year ago for $14.00 and they are quite readily available all the time on ebay. >>
Actually, In exomunia, this is not at all uncommon.
My rarest piece, I would guess I have seen 3 pieces. I have bought one. So, in total, I would guess, after 5A+ years of research on the town this thing came from, there are may be MAX 10 pieces.
You could get this for ~50 bucks.
WHY? Because, the collectors who have started to turn coal scrip or other exonumia into a collectable if you will are IMO, more into the history than the money at this time. Given what the current market will have. Wait until the collector population grows.
HOWEVER, I KNOW that another 5 years will destroy this sentiment and pieces that are everywhere will go for a small fortune while the really rare pieces will be moon money.
My avatar is a rather rare piece. My sig line is another rather rare piece. BOTH are r-9 in rating. r-10 being the rarest. BUT, I know the probability of my sig line piece showing up are greater simply because, there were over 400+ folks who worked that mine. The other piece, most of those folks are dead and wherever the other pieces are, nobody has figured out yet that wow, this is rare and historic.
Its as cladking has pointed out, knowing folks and doing the research.
for So Called Dollars, things are not always what they might appear to be.
In moving from the trash bin to the dealers velvet case, what is rare and what
is common has yet to be fully proven. To new collectors, move slowly, study constantly,
collect SCD that have beauty, condition and that have been observed to be in short supply.
Proper value for rare pieces,has not been fully established. Since there is no buy/sell tradition
for these items, there is much in pricing that is, in actuality, wishful thinking.
Remember, with great potential, is also to be found ,great risk.
Camelot
after things cool off and some prices are recorded for reference there will probably be little to do but trade between collectors and auction at a few sites. i doubt we'll ever see these as mainstream, which would mean going to a show and expecting to routinely find them in dealer cases. sadly, what that means to me is a little of what Stewart Blay refers to as being a CoinWhore™ only in medals. the guys marketing them big on eBay now will swim with the tide as long as they can stay above the water.
Camelot
I predict SCDs have a ways to go because Exonumia and Medals are listed AFTER postcards and jewelry for the Santa Clara show
<< <i>Why was SCD removed from the thread title? It's very ambiguous now.
I predict SCDs have a some ways to go because Exonumia and Medals are listed AFTER postcards and jewelry for the Santa Clara show
Give it 2 years......
<< <i>
<< <i>it's important to remember that some of the information relating to mintages isn't necessarily correct. my experience teaches me that some medals which are supposed to be common are hard to locate while others which have been listed as Rare or Extremely Rare can be found with regularity. that's the nice thing about "UP" markets, they tend to shake things out of the sky and answer questions for us. another thing i see is items which had large mintages are easily found but rarely ocurr in grades higher than MS63, especially some of the older issues in the less familiar alloys of aluminum and white metal.
this particular item has the likelihood of being estimated correctly since it was still relatively new when the research was done. all the same, items struck as recently as 1950, such as HK-505, have grossly and enticingly under-reported mintages. the best advice for anyone unfamiliar to these medals is simple: buy the book and read(study) it, start some kind of dialogue with anyone who's further ahead of the curve than you and proceed cautiously at first as you open your wallet and access your Bank Account. there's no need to be the sheep who's sheared, but as Abe has predicted, the sky is certainly the limit. what these medals offer a collector is the chance to own beautifully executed pieces with legitimate historical reference points, available in high grades if you're fortunate as veritable bargains. put in proper perspective, coins with similar mintages(extant and otherwise), much less artistry and absolutely no historical perspective aside from the date or MM are easily out of the reach of most collectors in the grades that these medals can be found in.
just try to find a Silver coin with 50 struck that you can afford......................... >>
Just an example of rarity ratings being all over the board. HK236 is listed as extremely rare with 21-50 pieces known. I purchased a nice uncirculated example on ebay about a year ago for $14.00 and they are quite readily available all the time on ebay. >>
I'm not sure where that 21-50 number comes from, but my guess is that it is entirely wrong. I have a few and I know a couple other people with a few. Most have holes. I'm not sure if yours does or not. They were commonly hanging medals from a ribbon.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>it's important to remember that some of the information relating to mintages isn't necessarily correct. my experience teaches me that some medals which are supposed to be common are hard to locate while others which have been listed as Rare or Extremely Rare can be found with regularity. that's the nice thing about "UP" markets, they tend to shake things out of the sky and answer questions for us. another thing i see is items which had large mintages are easily found but rarely ocurr in grades higher than MS63, especially some of the older issues in the less familiar alloys of aluminum and white metal.
this particular item has the likelihood of being estimated correctly since it was still relatively new when the research was done. all the same, items struck as recently as 1950, such as HK-505, have grossly and enticingly under-reported mintages. the best advice for anyone unfamiliar to these medals is simple: buy the book and read(study) it, start some kind of dialogue with anyone who's further ahead of the curve than you and proceed cautiously at first as you open your wallet and access your Bank Account. there's no need to be the sheep who's sheared, but as Abe has predicted, the sky is certainly the limit. what these medals offer a collector is the chance to own beautifully executed pieces with legitimate historical reference points, available in high grades if you're fortunate as veritable bargains. put in proper perspective, coins with similar mintages(extant and otherwise), much less artistry and absolutely no historical perspective aside from the date or MM are easily out of the reach of most collectors in the grades that these medals can be found in.
just try to find a Silver coin with 50 struck that you can afford......................... >>
Just an example of rarity ratings being all over the board. HK236 is listed as extremely rare with 21-50 pieces known. I purchased a nice uncirculated example on ebay about a year ago for $14.00 and they are quite readily available all the time on ebay. >>
I'm not sure where that 21-50 number comes from, but my guess is that it is entirely wrong. I have a few and I know a couple other people with a few. Most have holes. I'm not sure if yours does or not. They were commonly hanging medals from a ribbon. >>
Mine is holed. There are two on ebay right now complete with ribbons. One has been sitting in someone's ebay store for at least six months at $45, and another has been listed recently at $45 with no bids. Just a wild guess, but I'd say that there's at least several thousand of them, definitely not 21-50 examples as noted in the book.
<< <i>Those medals with HK numbers, will
double, in 12 - 18 months. That is all.
New HK Reference book due out in August. >>
Are medals that reactionary? In the series that I collect, an updated reference came out, but I did not see a dramatic increase in prices.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
2. Condition of many SCD has been impaired by rough handling and storage.
3. The number of collectors of SCD is increasing, forming an ever larger base.
4. The vast variety of SCD allows one to specialize in a particular theme or metal.
5. Many SCD are about to receive HK numbers in the new update book.
6. The cost of many SCD , even in MS-65, 66 or 67 are still relatively reasonable.
Camelot
supplies that relate to marketing, sales, etc.. with the company
name and logo.. you have these minimum amounts you have
to get.
afterall, you would not just order 7 mugs... you want more then
that, so they last through a phase of marketing...
so to see these medals and tokens given actual mint amounts
is almost humorous. did any of these minting amounts come
from actual documents by the manufacturer or the orderer?
i cannot see a company just buying just "50-500" of these.
most look like they may even have been given to customers...
i would also guess the amount of these that exist to be 1000+
at the very least for each medal or token?
There certainly does seem to be a greater buzz over the last several months.
<< <i>i think that when small business owners, then and now, buy
supplies that relate to marketing, sales, etc.. with the company
name and logo.. you have these minimum amounts you have
to get.
afterall, you would not just order 7 mugs... you want more then
that, so they last through a phase of marketing...
so to see these medals and tokens given actual mint amounts
is almost humorous. did any of these minting amounts come
from actual documents by the manufacturer or the orderer?
i cannot see a company just buying just "50-500" of these.
most look like they may even have been given to customers...
i would also guess the amount of these that exist to be 1000+
at the very least for each medal or token? >>
Mintages on some medals might be wildly underestimated but it's not likely
on many of the So-Called Dollars. Tokens were almost always issued in
multiples of 1000 (or 1000) but medals are far more expensive to produce.
Most are struck numerous times and might even be softened between strikes.
Each is hand made usually. Such medals might be given to dignitaries but
not to customers and the general public generally. Indeed, they were often
quite pricey which would dissuade most potential buyers.
There were medals run off on standard presses with larger mintages (some-
times in the tens of thousands) and given away to the masses but this does
not apply to many of the issues in the HK book.
As has been pointed out there is also a lot of variability in attrition for many
of these. Some have had a very very low attrition and a few have a very very
high attrition. There is also a lot of variability in the condition of the survivors
with some issues normally being found degraded and some often pristine.
<< <i>There were medals run off on standard presses with larger mintages (some-
times in the tens of thousands) and given away to the masses but this does
not apply to many of the issues in the HK book. >>
But does this apply to many of the issues in the HK book as well? The prediction was for all medals with HK numbers.
From what I've seen, there are a number of HK SCDs that could be limited-run due to production quality, however there are also many HK SCDs that seem like they could have been mass produced. From looking at the bay, it seems like more SCDs that could be mass produced come to market than potential limited run ones, at least to me.
HK-358 would be one of these examples.
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC