Options
If an expert cannot find quality coins, is that a sign that this is the beginning of the end?
Longacre
Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
I cut and pasted the most recent Doug Winter blog. It provides a good explanation of his views on expanding his business to silver issues, while remaining the source for Southern gold (as an aside, I like the irony of his reference to the Gold Ghetto™). I trust Winter’s eye for gold coins, and he makes a strong case as to why he is also highly qualified to deal in silver coins.
I am fully supportive of this move by Mr. Winter. However, I got a little weepy when I read that even the foremost Southern gold expert is having trouble finding Winter-quality gold coins in the open market. Also, I am troubled by his reference to the amounts of coins that are getting ruined forever by profit hungry collectors and dealers. It is sad.
Given what is written below, do you think it is a sign that this is the beginning of the end if a gold expert is having trouble finding quality gold coins anymore? How long should collectors stand by and do nothing when good coins are being ruined by the doctors and other short-sighted persons?
*************************
April 13, 2007
There’s a good side and a bad side to being a well-known specialist. On the plus side, when a collection of rare gold coins comes on the market, I am usually offered first shot. But I’ve become somewhat pigeon-holed as a guy who seldom strays from the Gold Ghetto when buying and selling.
I guess I was expecting some sort of reaction when I listed a group of Carson City silver for sale on my website yesterday. But I was pretty surprised at how many people called or wrote me to ask “Hey, what’s up with the silver coins on your site, Mr. Gold Expert.”
OK, to summarize: No, I’m not giving up my hard-earned position as The Man when it comes to Southern gold. Yes, I am going to start dealing more extensively in non-gold coins, especially the silver issues from Carson City and New Orleans.
I have a long history when it comes to 19th century silver. Back in the 1970’s when I was a young kid collecting coins, I couldn’t begin to think about paying the going rates for a Charlotte or Dahlonega piece. So I became a serious collector of Seated Liberty issues, especially quarter dollars. I assembled a nice partial set of circulated Seated quarters (which I sold in the mid-1980’s and which I wish I had held on to, as there were some pretty nifty coins in it) and to this day I remain fascinated with Seated (and Bust) issues.
A few people asked me yesterday if I am “bored” with Southern gold. Absolutely not—I still love these coins and continue to get excited by pieces as humble as a crusty 1851-C gold dollar or as exotic as an MS62 1839-C half eagle.
What does frustrate me, I’m afraid, is how difficult it has become to find nice gold coins for my inventory. So many pieces have been destroyed in the last few years. As a purist, it makes me sort of sad to see many of the nice Charlotte and Dahlonega coins I remember from the past now ruined forever. And as a pragmatist, I know I have fewer and fewer Winter-esque coins available to sell.
So the obvious solution is for me to diversify. Part of me would like to try a brand new area like World Gold... except for the fact that I know nothing about these coins and at this point of my life I am not eager to start a long and probably expensive learning process.
Thus, the thought of going back to my roots and rekindling my long love affair with Seated and Bust coins. This is an area I’m already pretty knowledgeable in. In fact, I’ve quietly built two of the finest collections of Carson City silver ever assembled as well as a few other world-class sets of Bust and Seated coins, including many very rare Proofs and alot of neat, finest known or Condition Census pieces as well.
My perspective on the silver coin market is just like I view gold coins. I like coins that are rare and I like coins which are original.
So, is DWN about to become The Source for rare silver coinage? Not likely. But I think there’s room in the coin market for a reputable dealer to sell nice $2,000-10,000 PCGS and NGC graded silver coins which are attractive, original and rare. Coins like an 1873-CC Arrows Dime in VF or a nicely toned Uncirculated 1848-O half dollar. Coins, in other words, that offer the collector good value and which I would buy for myself if I were still building a Seated Liberty or Bust silver collection.
Doug Winter
4/13/07
www.raregoldcoins.com
For more information about United States gold coinage please contact me at dwn@ont.com
I am fully supportive of this move by Mr. Winter. However, I got a little weepy when I read that even the foremost Southern gold expert is having trouble finding Winter-quality gold coins in the open market. Also, I am troubled by his reference to the amounts of coins that are getting ruined forever by profit hungry collectors and dealers. It is sad.
Given what is written below, do you think it is a sign that this is the beginning of the end if a gold expert is having trouble finding quality gold coins anymore? How long should collectors stand by and do nothing when good coins are being ruined by the doctors and other short-sighted persons?
*************************
April 13, 2007
There’s a good side and a bad side to being a well-known specialist. On the plus side, when a collection of rare gold coins comes on the market, I am usually offered first shot. But I’ve become somewhat pigeon-holed as a guy who seldom strays from the Gold Ghetto when buying and selling.
I guess I was expecting some sort of reaction when I listed a group of Carson City silver for sale on my website yesterday. But I was pretty surprised at how many people called or wrote me to ask “Hey, what’s up with the silver coins on your site, Mr. Gold Expert.”
OK, to summarize: No, I’m not giving up my hard-earned position as The Man when it comes to Southern gold. Yes, I am going to start dealing more extensively in non-gold coins, especially the silver issues from Carson City and New Orleans.
I have a long history when it comes to 19th century silver. Back in the 1970’s when I was a young kid collecting coins, I couldn’t begin to think about paying the going rates for a Charlotte or Dahlonega piece. So I became a serious collector of Seated Liberty issues, especially quarter dollars. I assembled a nice partial set of circulated Seated quarters (which I sold in the mid-1980’s and which I wish I had held on to, as there were some pretty nifty coins in it) and to this day I remain fascinated with Seated (and Bust) issues.
A few people asked me yesterday if I am “bored” with Southern gold. Absolutely not—I still love these coins and continue to get excited by pieces as humble as a crusty 1851-C gold dollar or as exotic as an MS62 1839-C half eagle.
What does frustrate me, I’m afraid, is how difficult it has become to find nice gold coins for my inventory. So many pieces have been destroyed in the last few years. As a purist, it makes me sort of sad to see many of the nice Charlotte and Dahlonega coins I remember from the past now ruined forever. And as a pragmatist, I know I have fewer and fewer Winter-esque coins available to sell.
So the obvious solution is for me to diversify. Part of me would like to try a brand new area like World Gold... except for the fact that I know nothing about these coins and at this point of my life I am not eager to start a long and probably expensive learning process.
Thus, the thought of going back to my roots and rekindling my long love affair with Seated and Bust coins. This is an area I’m already pretty knowledgeable in. In fact, I’ve quietly built two of the finest collections of Carson City silver ever assembled as well as a few other world-class sets of Bust and Seated coins, including many very rare Proofs and alot of neat, finest known or Condition Census pieces as well.
My perspective on the silver coin market is just like I view gold coins. I like coins that are rare and I like coins which are original.
So, is DWN about to become The Source for rare silver coinage? Not likely. But I think there’s room in the coin market for a reputable dealer to sell nice $2,000-10,000 PCGS and NGC graded silver coins which are attractive, original and rare. Coins like an 1873-CC Arrows Dime in VF or a nicely toned Uncirculated 1848-O half dollar. Coins, in other words, that offer the collector good value and which I would buy for myself if I were still building a Seated Liberty or Bust silver collection.
Doug Winter
4/13/07
www.raregoldcoins.com
For more information about United States gold coinage please contact me at dwn@ont.com
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
0
Comments
<< <i>I'm not trying to be a wise guy here, but what would make DW (or you) believe that he's going to have any better luck finding Bust and Seated silver coinage that has not been "destroyed" in recent years? >>
While I agree that these are just as hard to find as original rare date gold, no doubt by selling a variety of US coins, DW (or anyone else) can broaden his client base and be involved in more transactions. It makes good business sense.
As an aside, I have known that he was a closet silver guy for some time. One night we were meeting in St. Louis for dinner, and he was late because he had to bid on a very expensive silver coin. I nearly fell off my chair before he told me about his extensive interest and experience in 19th century silver.
So what choices do "southern" gold collectors have?
#1) Pay higher and higher premiums for the rare "original" coin.
#2) Adjust their collecting preferences to include "non-original" coins and just get used to it.
#3) If "non-original" coins are just not desirable...find another are of collecting where "original"
coins can be obtained. (if possible).
I'm just starting my "southern gold" collecting adventure. I'm buying in the VG-XF range, circulated and abused
gold will find a nice home with me
is limited) I'll fall into category #2.
I believe CharlotteDude in a thread mentioned NCS giving a recommendation to "conserve" one of his original gold coins to
get a better grade..but he refused.
But how many dealer/collectors looking for "one more grade" will do that? I don't know.
By the time the market recognizes the "premium" that is being given to "original" gold it may be too late...too many coins
dipped and stripped.
Any comments on the above? I'm new so I may be way off base....just giving some observations...
thanks
af
Doug won't have any more luck finding good seated coins. I've been trying for the past couple of years without much luck.
roadrunner
It sounds to me as though DW might be following his good clients into this area.
Many many folks in this business are motivated primarily by money and greed, and too many folks don't care about the long term health of numismatics and coin preservation when they can make an extra percentage right now. But I applaud collectors and dealers that try to educate, and tuck away nice coins far from the reaches of strip and flippers. But I often wonder if in the big picture, it's all just a delay of the inevitable...
<< <i>
<< <i>How long should collectors stand by and do nothing when good coins are being ruined by the doctors and other short-sighted persons? >>
Many many folks in this business are motivated primarily by money and greed, and too many folks don't care about the long term health of numismatics and coin preservation when they can make an extra percentage right now. But I applaud collectors and dealers that try to educate, and tuck away nice coins far from the reaches of strip and flippers. But I often wonder if in the big picture, it's all just a delay of the inevitable... >>
How much of this is driven by TPG market acceptability? If collectors are to do anything, should it start with the TPGs?
Excellent questions, and I will try to answer you point-by-point.
So what choices do "southern" gold collectors have?
#1) Pay higher and higher premiums for the rare "original" coin.
So far, there is little premium paid for original coins, except in rare instances. I think that this is about to change.
#2) Adjust their collecting preferences to include "non-original" coins and just get used to it.
This is the last resort. If one is patient, one can still find nice, original coins in all grades. It is definitely harder than it was five years ago.
#3) If "non-original" coins are just not desirable...find another are of collecting where "original"
coins can be obtained. (if possible).
The paucity of original, attractive coins in a problem for collectors of all specialties. In other words, name a specialty or area in which this is not a concern.
I'm just starting my "southern gold" collecting adventure. I'm buying in the VG-XF range, circulated and abused
gold will find a nice home with me . I do appreciate "original" looking gold...but I suspect given #1 above (my budget
is limited) I'll fall into category #2.
The dipped-and-stripped coins are primarily in the AU range. If you stick to VF-XF, you have a better chance of actually being able to find some original coins. Below VF, the coins are less common, far less attractive, and thinly traded. For the most part (and there are some exceptions), I would recommend avoiding collecting southern gold coins below VF.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I thought it was really interesting to see him consider world gold coins. He may have backed away for now but I bet he has the bug. >>
I was thinking the same thing. Hopefully he will team up with someone with expertise in this area and make a run of it (perhaps mreureka or John K. at Stack's?). I think that would be very interesting and given the value today in world gold compared to US gold, I think that Winter can become a player.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>
<< <i>I thought it was really interesting to see him consider world gold coins. He may have backed away for now but I bet he has the bug. >>
I was thinking the same thing. Hopefully he will team up with someone with expertise in this area and make a run of it (perhaps mreureka or John K. at Stack's?). I think that would be very interesting and given the value today in world gold compared to US gold, I think that Winter can become a player. >>
No doubt he can become a player. How much is ther to learn. He can already grade. He can tell original skin. Maybe just becoming familiar with some of the country specific denominations seems difficult, but he could focus like he does southern gold. Alot to choose from in world gold.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I read Laura's recent post on generic gold. The first thing that popped into my head and I am sure others' as well was, "Great advice! Now try to find some nice, original, properly or conservatively graded ones." They are not in abundance, not even the gold widgets. I haven't been a buyer in a long time and sold out mine a bit over a year ago. But I do look at shows when I am tired of Morgan cherrypicking. Maybe others are finding nice gold, but I haven't seen much with my occasional spot checks.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>I thought it was really interesting to see him consider world gold coins. He may have backed away for now but I bet he has the bug. >>
I personally do not see him getting into world gold coins...
unless...
It sounds to me as though DW might be following his good clients into this area.
Nah, it won't happen.
"Amazon.com recommends Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint: 1839-1909"
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
<< <i>OK, this is weird. I'm reading this thread in into my e-mail Inbox pops this message from Amazon:
"Amazon.com recommends Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint: 1839-1909" >>
Even stranger..I just ordered a copy of that book yesterday from amazon!
RYK: Thank you for answering my post. It's good to hear "original" surface gold still exists in the VF-XF range.
Now to hunt them out!
regards
af
<< <i>
<< <i>I thought it was really interesting to see him consider world gold coins. He may have backed away for now but I bet he has the bug. >>
I personally do not see him getting into world gold coins...
unless...
It sounds to me as though DW might be following his good clients into this area.
Nah, it won't happen.
Southern gold is so yesterday, man. The future is in seated silver and world gold.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
As you pointed out, there are lots of ways to deal with frustration:
1) Pay more.
2) Change your standards.
3) Wait longer to find the right coin.
4) Divert your energies into another area of collecting.
The End? Naw, not at all. You seem to avoid the issue of collecting Moderns, but if you like nice gold surfaces, original ones, you won't do better than Moderns.
And this is not meant as an incindiary post. It's reality for many of us who can't (or won't) compete in the 5-figure range.
Foreign gold? Not my cup of tea, but for some it might be the answer.
It's still a hobby. It shouldn't be a source of frustration. When lacking a certain coin affects your attitude, it's time to do something else.
For me, it just means waiting until I see something I really like. That makes it fun, for me at least.
I knew it would happen.
I have tried modern gold (bullion and commems), and, quite frankly, it bores the hell out of me. The coins all look the same (talk about widgets!), all perfect or nearly so, and there is no real scarcity or historical connection, two attributes that attracted me to southern gold. Modern gold? Not for me, man.
History is always in the process of being made. Time has a way of making some things more "interesting."
What bores me is to try and get interested in a coin that's been beat to heck, even a gold one.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Modern gold? Not for me, man. >>
History is always in the process of being made. Time has a way of making some things more "interesting." >>
Time has a much harder job making coins more interesting when the coins are protected in OGP capsules, AirTities and TPG slabs. With higher purity gold, it may even be harder to find coins that develop character through copper stains.
I recently ran across a 1976 22k Canada gold commem which looked very original with copper stains and all. It was stored in the original OGP box but the box had the gold coin raw, as with many old medals, no plastic capsule or anything. The design and surrounding copper stains were very attractive IMO but I passed, partly because the mintage was very high at 350,000.
<< <i>Modern gold? Not for me, man.
History is always in the process of being made. Time has a way of making some things more "interesting."
What bores me is to try and get interested in a coin that's been beat to heck, even a gold one. >>
I am in the "history in your hands" camp. What's cool about Dahlonega $5's is that they actually did circulate. Maybe my XF coin was once possessed and spent by Stonewall Jackson, Robert E Lee, or Winfield Scott. My AGE was sent by the mint to me, to some bullion wholesaler and then to me, or to some dude who sent it to PCGS, ebayed it and sold it me. Dullsville.
But - you missed my point about history. Either that, or you ascribe to the Laura theory of history - that history ended in 1955? It might just be that in 2025, when gold is at $2,000/oz. the great Modern coin melt will have left only about 100 specimens of your AGE left.
Your heirs will find it in an old shoebox, because you didn't classify it as a real collectible, so it was overlooked when you donated your collection to the Neuman Museum. Since it had never been cracked out, like the other remaining 99 specimens, your heirs are in possession of a piece that is still virtually perfect, after all those years!
Thanks for your indulgence. You can have the thread back now.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Modern gold? Not for me, man.
History is always in the process of being made. Time has a way of making some things more "interesting."
What bores me is to try and get interested in a coin that's been beat to heck, even a gold one. >>
I am in the "history in your hands" camp. What's cool about Dahlonega $5's is that they actually did circulate. Maybe my XF coin was once possessed and spent by Stonewall Jackson, Robert E Lee, or Winfield Scott. My AGE was sent by the mint to me, to some bullion wholesaler and then to me, or to some dude who sent it to PCGS, ebayed it and sold it me. Dullsville. >>
But the silver in that coin is probably thousands of years old.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>I am in the "history in your hands" camp. What's cool about Dahlonega $5's is that they actually did circulate. Maybe my XF coin was once possessed and spent by Stonewall Jackson, Robert E Lee, or Winfield Scott. My AGE was sent by the mint to me, to some bullion wholesaler and then to me, or to some dude who sent it to PCGS, ebayed it and sold it me. Dullsville.
But - you missed my point about history. Either that, or you ascribe to the Laura theory of history - that history ended in 1955? It might just be that in 2025, when gold is at $2,000/oz. the great Modern coin melt will have left only about 100 specimens of your AGE left.
Your heirs will find it in an old shoebox, because you didn't classify it as a real collectible, so it was overlooked when you donated your collection to the Neuman Museum. Since it had never been cracked out, like the other remaining 99 specimens, your heirs are in possession of a piece that is still virtually perfect, after all those years! >>
The survival rate of pristine American gold eagles and modern bullion will be extraordinarily high (approaching 100%). Southern gold coins had to survive actual circulation and melting, especially the Great Melt of 1933. About 1% of the original Dahlonega and Charlotte mintages exist. There are 10,000 Dahlonega coins in existence, all denominations, all grades. That's a fart in a windstorm compared to modern gold (pardon the vulgarity). It is very unlikely that modern US gold will have to face the travails that southern gold did in order to survive.
Even truly choice to gem Darkside gold is difficult to find, especially any pre-Edwardian British milled coinage. I only recently located a true gem Victorian young head sovereign. Foolishly, I let up on the bidding for the 3-4 gem unc. sovereigns which were in the Terner I sale. Rare as hen's teeth? Absolutely.
Anyone have any true, "crusty" gem unc. or better Jubilee or Matron head sovereigns, then drop me a PM. It would be worth your time.
Generally, pre-1860s foreign gold, or silver for that matter would be a good area for DW to explore, but the learning curve is high with so many disparate mints and countries. Maybe he could invade the South American gold arena..........hey, that's really "southern" gold.
But I also am completely happy to gather up as many Modern Gold American Eagles as possible, and most of mine aren't slabbed. They are great coins, with great strikes and great surfaces. Best of all - I only paid a nominal premium to get them! How cool is that! And on top of that, I get to collect whatever other coins come my way that I like for any reason that I find valid.
I was suggesting that you will be forced one way or another to defer gratification or to divert your collecting enthusiasm into an area that provides you more satisfaction than you can currently find by not being able to locate the nice, premium stuff. That's just the market talking, and I was suggesting the alternatives that exist.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Once you have taken away a coin's originality, you cannot get it back. >>
I seem to remember someone saying some "original" coins are original for the third or fourth time
for one thing, and what happens in a market where supply dries up and demand remains constant???
anyone who's taken Econ 101 will know that in the above quote, prices will go up. If demand increases, prices will increase even more.
the relationship among supply, demand, and price is of course dynamic. Suggesting modern coins as a substitute for old coins is laughable, to me.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>It is definitely the beginning of the end for some >>
If I could not seriously collect old US coins, for lack of availabilty, being priced out of them, or not having the funds to buy them, I would no longer seriously collect coins. It's as simple as that.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
David Hall has obviously been far more successful in coins than ryk, but that does not mean he is going to tell ryk how and what to collect.
The other thing that modern gold suffers from is manufactured rarity. An 1855-D gold dollar is not rare because the Dahlonega Mint decided that they were not going to make many in order to gain favor with collectors. They made fewer because there was less demand for these in 1855 than there was in 1857. A reverse proof AGE is rare because the US Mint decided that they wanted to attract more collectors to bullion collecting and only made 10,000.
Why, it's almost as if some coin doctor got hooked up with some grading company. But THAT couldn't happen. Could it?
That could be AWFUL. And if the PNG actually SUPPORTED such an outfit. Whooowieee!!!!
Oh hey, I've got some PMs from Nov 2005 that I sent to an influential PNG guy who was going to forward my concern to the PNG board. So that couldn't be it.
Ask not for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for PROCESSED coins.
Is this REALLY a surprise to anyone? Hasn't anyone ELSE seen coins that are AWFUL in "recognized" plastic? Hasn't anyone ELSE noted the dramatic INCREASE in them? Hasn't anyone visited across the street and seen the thread inquiring if anyone would be interested in forming a group of ORIGINAL COIN appreciateurs?
That would be very interesting, and I would like to be a participant of said organization. How about a link?
I always thought that we all, dealers and collectors, have the ANA, upper echelon dealers have the PNG, but serious collectors have no influential collectors-only organization to exert influence on the hobby and business of coins.
It is still, "educate yourself, do your due diligence, know your coins, watch what's going on and act accordingly.
Maybe it is XF because it *wasn't* once spent by any of those guys. Maybe some ordinary working stiff was saving contemporary "Moderns" and stuck it in the bottom drawer of his bureau, thinking that he couldn't afford to buy the expensive Proof coins that were being doled out by the Mint at a premium.
Maybe some Moderns actually have historical significance. A reknowned scuptor was once paid her commission for the coin she designed with the very coins she designed. The burnished finish heralded a new generation of finishes being used by the Mint:
(Those "in-the-know" think that it's really not made of gold.)
I knew it would happen.
<< <i> I am in the "history in your hands" camp. What's cool about Dahlonega $5's is that they actually did circulate. Maybe my XF coin was once possessed and spent by Stonewall Jackson, Robert E Lee, or Winfield Scott. My AGE was sent by the mint to me, to some bullion wholesaler and then to me, or to some dude who sent it to PCGS, ebayed it and sold it me. Dullsville. >>
I couldn't have said it better! That's what turns me on to old us gold..particularly southern gold. I have a PCGS VG10 charlotte
that has been aaaaaroooound the block a few times..but I love it. When the sun strikes it it shines green gold....beautiful
even with all it's blemishes.
Personally I like "beat up" and circulated coins (gold and others). Of course I have a limit to the degree of "beat-up-ness"
I will accept...but that's just my personal preference.
I collect what I prefer and like....others collect what they like. Groovy!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.