Lessons the Morgans can teach us about the 2006 W MS American Silver Eagles - ASE SAE

ericj96 · April 11, 2007 12:34PM

Many are wondering where the 2006 W American Silver Eagle will end up over long haul. One of the best ways to think about long term pricing behavior is to look for similar issues that are further along in their pricing life cycle.

The best reference point I can think of for the 2006 w MS Silver Eagle was a mint state silver dollar issued on average in MS63. 960,000 of them were issued in 1964 to the public. This coin (the 1884CC) is the most common of its set and is KEY of nothing but it still brings about $250 currently.

Now we all know that being the key to a large series gives a pricing boost to the key date beyond what its base line mintage would indicate all else equal. So where does that put a 475,000 mintage silver dollar that is the key to a popular series with a total series population of over 145,000,000 coins?

According to the government 387,000,000 Morgans survived the melts. 190,000,000 peace dollars were issued. The ASE series populations will pass the entire Peace issue in about 4 years and is already over the Morgan's halfway mark.

Do you think the 2006-w will endure as a key or the key to this massive and popular MS silver dollar series? If so $250 is nothing and $300 to $500 each in time is not out of the question. How long it will take for the 2006-w to pass the common date CC morgans is anyone's guess but less than 40 years is likely.........the way market cycle maturity time is being increasingly compressed maybe 40 months is more likely. We shall see.

ericj96

Akbeez · April 11, 2007 12:54PM

Thanks Eric. I can't disagree with that. This is especially relevant with considering what the ASE 95-W has done in the last 2 years, AND where the 96 MS version has gone at 9x the mintage. I think $300-350 is where the 06-W will be in 2 years.

Coxe · April 11, 2007 1:09PM

There are certainly some similarities, and we can add SGDEs to that too. But there are also differences. Morgan dollars were minted in the 19th to the cusp of the 20th century for the most part with the associated technology. They were minted to make quotas with little regard for quality. That produced a plethora die varieties and extreme die states. (They weren't alone for certain. Shield nickels have an incredible breadth of unusual varieties and clashes for example.) Much of the serious interest in the series in the exceptions, the rarer or more unusual varieties and much lesser abundant prooflikes. SAEs OTOH were generally and fairly consistently well produced. Neither were destined for commerce really. Morgans also are strongly associated with the mining rushes, the Comstock Lode, industrialist corruption in late 19th century politics, ... That isn't as relevant as the production quality by date and mint though. I am not so sure that the collector base for SAEs will focus on date and mint to the same degree but more likely design type. The thing also with CC Morgans is that they WERE keys before the Treasury release. Many of the dates were low mintage and extreme rarities in circulation and private hoards. Much of the mintages escaped melts and were subsequently released. But the collecting public still was in love with them and the romance of that old west mint with a mintmak evocative of odl west cattle branding.

ericj96 · April 11, 2007 1:21PM

The Morgans were and are great coins. I spent my younger collecting life chasing common date proof-likes. My point was that the very high pop CC Morgans bring over $200 each and are more common in MS grades right now than the 2006-w MS. The Morgans are about the best reference we have for the price behavior for very large pop dollars with mintages in this range. $200 or more each for 2006-w may be in the cards in the long run.

ericj96

Zoins · April 11, 2007 1:31PM

One of the more interesting unknowns with ASEs is how many will develop milkspots. While this is a negative to the people with these ASEs, it will make the series more interesting from a collector perspective in the future because there is and will continue to be ASE condition deterioration. This will expand the range of conditions ASEs are available in, with a result similar to how the Morgans were not produced to rigorous quality standards.

The other similarity with Morgans is that there are ASE toner collectors as well as ASE white coin collectors. Many ASEs are being toned intentionally now and there are already some with gorgeous color as well as some with not so pretty colors.

Coxe · April 11, 2007 1:35PM

It is possible if the West Point mintmark becomes as important to collectors as the Carson City mintmark. They could instead follow high mintage ones like 1881-S that has a more modest premium factor. They have different stories and likely not parallel futures, but never know. I always go for rarity, even though that is but one component in valuation and demand/supply is a simple ratio that depends on both. If someone like SAEs and thinks date collecting will have a strong base compared to the overall available supply going forward, the rare dates are defintiely worth considering. Would I be a buyer of 1884-CC Morgans in BU? No. I collected Morgans for decades and didn't buy a single 1884-CC until 2006. What did I buy? A rare variety (VAM-7A) as many as I could find reasonably. My PL/DMPL set doesn't have an 1884-CC, even though it has some dates that are prohibitively rare. Why buy the common dates that are always available nice somewhere? They can always wait, at least for me.

Akbeez · April 11, 2007 2:03PM

Zoins has a rather unique perspective on the ASEs from a deterioration perspective. I hadn't thought about that, but it certainly is worthy of consideration. Barring a "cure" (like cancer) the spotting is a real issue -- perhaps detrimental to the species. Buying something that may self-destruct is rather risky. I for one, dump those spottlings ASAP. Toners too -- I see red flags on these with all the ATs out there, even though they are cool...

Lessons the Morgans can teach us about the 2006 W MS American Silver Eagles - ASE SAE

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