I was worried I did a BAD thing by re-fing my house to the hilt and buying hundreds of sets of the the 3-coin gold 20th Anniversary American Gold Eagle sets.
I was worried I did a BAD thing by re-fing my house to the hilt and buying hundreds of sets of the the 3-coin gold 20th Anniversary American Gold Eagle sets.
Phew... I'm good! >>
There you are.......the future belongs to you my friend. You've got hundreds of 3-coin Anniversary American Gold Eagle sets.
American dollars represents confidence. No matter what anyone might think of her policies today, America isn't going anywhere and neither are her dollars. They are traded all over the world. We are a very stable country and we are the glue that holds the world together. I think other countries hate us because they are so envious of us. I see people sneaking across our borders and I never see Americans trying to sneak out. Go to other countries and, chances are, you'll be approached by someone wanting to buy your dollars. I've yet to see an American offering a foreign tourist dollars for their currency. . >>
I agree and that's why I like silver so much and gold for the short term.
For America to succeed it will require silver at an increasing rate. Yet the amount of silver available just keeps dropping. The same thing is happen- ing with nickel but there is far more resistance to price increases in nickel.
Once again the value of gold in one's portfolio is compared to a 25 year history rather than the current cycle now. The current cycle is 6 years old. To miss out on 6 years of steady appreciation because 1980 to 2000 was a bust is nonsensical. Stocks will turn out to a bust from 2001 to 2012. They will have not even kept up with inflation, which is what gold is for. While you are looking at the gold charts from 1980 to 2002 please go back and peruse the stock charts from 1966 to 1982.......(hint....it's not a good picture). The young hedge fund managers of today don't even think a 1966-1982 down cycle is possible today.
Because of the weakening of the US dollar (down 30% since the 2002 peak) and gold increasing 2.5X, the dollar is exactly the wrong place to be right now longer term. Don't look now but many former supporters of the US dollar started looking elsewhere as they have reduced their positions. Staunch allies like the UK and "un-named off shore accounts" have picked up some slack. The dollar has more to fall. Figure another 15-20% minimum from current levels. The dollar is anything but rock solid and the choice of the world. This is precisely why gold has gone up 2.5X since 2002, a general fear of the dollar becoming weaker.
Dow vs gold ratio is a fact. There is no disputing it used to be 42 and is now around 18. The trend has been to continue to shrink it. This won't change until the metals cycle comes to an end and stocks reach a final washout bottom down the road. All the discussion on the blogs don't change facts and trends...policies do as well as consumer habits. There is no massive pile of gold waiting to be sold. The central banks have given up quite a bit of their war chest over the past 15 years towards the gold carry trade and to supress the gold price. There are tracks out there that tend to indicate the US has sold off some or much of it's own bullion. While there is a "lot" of gold in the world, it still pales in comparison to all the currency floating around. All the gold in the world only comes to a few trillion dollars. That's peanuts compared to what else is out there. A few trillion trades daily on the currency markets. And the selling of physical gold has done very little to keep the price depressed. Rather it is the naked short selling of gold stocks (ie shares) that the govt's Exchange Stabilization Fund has used as the method to push the gold price down at times. Sell shares that you don't have. If they had to actually sell real gold, the game would end tomorrow.
The world as a whole is currently under money stock binging of +10% or more per year (China around 18% and Russia over 40%). If thisn't inflationary I don't know what is. The US is actually a laggard in the M3 game at only +10 to +11% per year. The compounding of interest during the current period is not going to be much help to anyone. And with the housing game pretty much down the tubes what's the next "get rich quick" scheme that's gonna be hoisted on the masses?
Note that a diff index for stocks is used prior to 1896. It was not until the creation of the FED (ie inflation) and cheapening the dollar each year that you see the Dow/Gold ratio take on some large spiking above and below the trend line (to the mid-double digits) This is a product of fiat money cycles and the FED. The time to be holding less stocks (or maybe shorting them) is during the periods where Dow/Gold is low.
I've spent the last hour or so googling gold/dow ratio and most degenerated into political rants ( at which time I bailed out ), but to sum them up, they seemed to evolve around inflation, and what a person might think of his standard of living. And this, I think, supports my contention that gold isn't the place to be to secure one's future. A get rich quick scheme maybe, if you can time the ups and downs, but thats more gambling than investing.
The gold chart that I posted showed the price of 1oz gold in 1980 as $681 ( in 1980 dollars ) vs the same 1oz gold in 2007 costing $672.50 ( in 2007 dollars ). I was around in 1979 when silver and gold was climbing every day. I believe silver went to $50oz and gold to $800oz. Is there anyone out there who doubts that there is a massive pile of metal waiting to be sold? Gold represents fear.
American dollars represents confidence. No matter what anyone might think of her policies today, America isn't going anywhere and neither are her dollars. They are traded all over the world. We are a very stable country and we are the glue that holds the world together. I think other countries hate us because they are so envious of us. I see people sneaking across our borders and I never see Americans trying to sneak out. Go to other countries and, chances are, you'll be approached by someone wanting to buy your dollars. I've yet to see an American offering a foreign tourist dollars for their currency.
Actually, if a young person were to ask me how to get rich, and have a secure future, I would tell them to google up the "miracle of compounding interest". It truly is the eighth wonder of the world. Now there's a way to get rich. In the long haul, nothing beats interest.[/qI agree with your comments and would add ownership in equities for the long term as well........gold is a horrible long term investment. History clearly shows this. I do not understand why people keep posting doomsday scenarios about our economy, the Dow, etc. Quite the opposite, even when there has been a hiccup ( much less a 9/11 scenario) in these areas America bounced back higher.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
To those who may have been planning to retire in the 1920's, 1930's, 1940's, or the 1960's and 1970's, the performance of the stock market (ie "hiccups) would have delayed their plans or forced them to make other arrangements. The fact that we have not yet had a huge hiccup and reversal in the Dow or S&P in many years doesn't mean they are immune. The chart clearly shows extended hiccups that would have killed one's retirement plans if they were on the wrong end of the cycle. To think that the 1980's and 1990's will be the norm for the next 10-15 years is a huge leap of faith. I'll go by what the trends seem to predict. Not doom and gloom but simple statistics.
<< <i>Once again the value of gold in one's portfolio is compared to a 25 year history rather than the current cycle now. The current cycle is 6 years old. To miss out on 6 years of steady appreciation because 1980 to 2000 was a bust is nonsensical. Stocks will turn out to a bust from 2001 to 2012. They will have not even kept up with inflation, which is what gold is for. While you are looking at the gold charts from 1980 to 2002 please go back and peruse the stock charts from 1966 to 1982.......(hint....it's not a good picture). The young hedge fund managers of today don't even think a 1966-1982 down cycle is possible today.
Because of the weakening of the US dollar (down 30% since the 2002 peak) and gold increasing 2.5X, the dollar is exactly the wrong place to be right now longer term. Don't look now but many former supporters of the US dollar started looking elsewhere as they have reduced their positions. Staunch allies like the UK and "un-named off shore accounts" have picked up some slack. The dollar has more to fall. Figure another 15-20% minimum from current levels. The dollar is anything but rock solid and the choice of the world. This is precisely why gold has gone up 2.5X since 2002, a general fear of the dollar becoming weaker.
Dow vs gold ratio is a fact. There is no disputing it used to be 42 and is now around 18. The trend has been to continue to shrink it. This won't change until the metals cycle comes to an end and stocks reach a final washout bottom down the road. All the discussion on the blogs don't change facts and trends...policies do as well as consumer habits. There is no massive pile of gold waiting to be sold. The central banks have given up quite a bit of their war chest over the past 15 years towards the gold carry trade and to supress the gold price. There are tracks out there that tend to indicate the US has sold off some or much of it's own bullion. While there is a "lot" of gold in the world, it still pales in comparison to all the currency floating around. All the gold in the world only comes to a few trillion dollars. That's peanuts compared to what else is out there. A few trillion trades daily on the currency markets. And the selling of physical gold has done very little to keep the price depressed. Rather it is the naked short selling of gold stocks (ie shares) that the govt's Exchange Stabilization Fund has used as the method to push the gold price down at times. Sell shares that you don't have. If they had to actually sell real gold, the game would end tomorrow.
The world as a whole is currently under money stock binging of +10% or more per year (China around 18% and Russia over 40%). If thisn't inflationary I don't know what is. The US is actually a laggard in the M3 game at only +10 to +11% per year. The compounding of interest during the current period is not going to be much help to anyone. And with the housing game pretty much down the tubes what's the next "get rich quick" scheme that's gonna be hoisted on the masses?
roadrunner >>
I totally disagree with your 2001 to 2012 "bust" theory. You read to many gold bug newsletters. You are totally missing real global GDP growth worldwide.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Comments
I was worried I did a BAD thing by re-fing my house to the hilt and buying hundreds of sets of the the 3-coin gold 20th Anniversary American Gold Eagle sets.
Phew... I'm good!
<< <i>You guys all had me scared for a minute!!!
I was worried I did a BAD thing by re-fing my house to the hilt and buying hundreds of sets of the the 3-coin gold 20th Anniversary American Gold Eagle sets.
Phew... I'm good! >>
There you are.......the future belongs to you my friend. You've got hundreds of 3-coin Anniversary American Gold Eagle sets.
<< <i>
American dollars represents confidence. No matter what anyone might think of her policies today, America isn't going anywhere and neither are her dollars. They are traded all over the world. We are a very stable country and we are the glue that holds the world together. I think other countries hate us because they are so envious of us. I see people sneaking across our borders and I never see Americans trying to sneak out. Go to other countries and, chances are, you'll be approached by someone wanting to buy your dollars. I've yet to see an American offering a foreign tourist dollars for their currency.
. >>
I agree and that's why I like silver so much and gold for the short term.
For America to succeed it will require silver at an increasing rate. Yet the
amount of silver available just keeps dropping. The same thing is happen-
ing with nickel but there is far more resistance to price increases in nickel.
Because of the weakening of the US dollar (down 30% since the 2002 peak) and gold increasing 2.5X, the dollar is exactly the wrong place to be right now longer term. Don't look now but many former supporters of the US dollar started looking elsewhere as they have reduced their positions. Staunch allies like the UK and "un-named off shore accounts" have picked up some slack. The dollar has more to fall. Figure another 15-20% minimum from current levels. The dollar is anything but rock solid and the choice of the world. This is precisely why gold has gone up 2.5X since 2002, a general fear of the dollar becoming weaker.
Dow vs gold ratio is a fact. There is no disputing it used to be 42 and is now around 18. The trend has been to continue to shrink it.
This won't change until the metals cycle comes to an end and stocks reach a final washout bottom down the road. All the discussion on the blogs don't change facts and trends...policies do as well as consumer habits. There is no massive pile of gold waiting to be sold.
The central banks have given up quite a bit of their war chest over the past 15 years towards the gold carry trade and to supress the gold price. There are tracks out there that tend to indicate the US has sold off some or much of it's own bullion. While there is a "lot" of gold in the world, it still pales in comparison to all the currency floating around. All the gold in the world only comes to a few trillion dollars. That's peanuts compared to what else is out there. A few trillion trades daily on the currency markets. And the selling of physical gold has done very little to keep the price depressed. Rather it is the naked short selling of gold stocks (ie shares) that the govt's Exchange Stabilization Fund has used as the method to push the gold price down at times. Sell shares that you don't have.
If they had to actually sell real gold, the game would end tomorrow.
The world as a whole is currently under money stock binging of +10% or more per year (China around 18% and Russia over 40%).
If thisn't inflationary I don't know what is. The US is actually a laggard in the M3 game at only +10 to +11% per year. The compounding of interest during the current period is not going to be much help to anyone. And with the housing game pretty much down the tubes what's the next "get rich quick" scheme that's gonna be hoisted on the masses?
roadrunner
Note that a diff index for stocks is used prior to 1896. It was not until the creation of the FED (ie inflation) and cheapening the dollar each year that you see the Dow/Gold ratio take on some large spiking above and below the trend line (to the mid-double digits) This is a product of fiat money cycles and the FED. The time to be holding less stocks (or maybe shorting them) is during the periods where Dow/Gold is low.
roadrunner
<< <i>roadrunner
I've spent the last hour or so googling gold/dow ratio and most degenerated into political rants ( at which time I bailed out ), but to sum them up, they seemed to evolve around inflation, and what a person might think of his standard of living. And this, I think, supports my contention that gold isn't the place to be to secure one's future. A get rich quick scheme maybe, if you can time the ups and downs, but thats more gambling than investing.
The gold chart that I posted showed the price of 1oz gold in 1980 as $681 ( in 1980 dollars ) vs the same 1oz gold in 2007 costing $672.50 ( in 2007 dollars ). I was around in 1979 when silver and gold was climbing every day. I believe silver went to $50oz and gold to $800oz. Is there anyone out there who doubts that there is a massive pile of metal waiting to be sold? Gold represents fear.
American dollars represents confidence. No matter what anyone might think of her policies today, America isn't going anywhere and neither are her dollars. They are traded all over the world. We are a very stable country and we are the glue that holds the world together. I think other countries hate us because they are so envious of us. I see people sneaking across our borders and I never see Americans trying to sneak out. Go to other countries and, chances are, you'll be approached by someone wanting to buy your dollars. I've yet to see an American offering a foreign tourist dollars for their currency.
Actually, if a young person were to ask me how to get rich, and have a secure future, I would tell them to google up the "miracle of compounding interest". It truly is the eighth wonder of the world. Now there's a way to get rich. In the long haul, nothing beats interest.[/qI agree with your comments and would add ownership in equities for the long term as well........gold is a horrible long term investment. History clearly shows this. I do not understand why people keep posting doomsday scenarios about our economy, the Dow, etc. Quite the opposite, even when there has been a hiccup ( much less a 9/11 scenario) in these areas America bounced back higher.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
roadrunner
<< <i>Once again the value of gold in one's portfolio is compared to a 25 year history rather than the current cycle now. The current cycle is 6 years old. To miss out on 6 years of steady appreciation because 1980 to 2000 was a bust is nonsensical. Stocks will turn out to a bust from 2001 to 2012. They will have not even kept up with inflation, which is what gold is for. While you are looking at the gold charts from 1980 to 2002 please go back and peruse the stock charts from 1966 to 1982.......(hint....it's not a good picture). The young hedge fund managers of today don't even think a 1966-1982 down cycle is possible today.
Because of the weakening of the US dollar (down 30% since the 2002 peak) and gold increasing 2.5X, the dollar is exactly the wrong place to be right now longer term. Don't look now but many former supporters of the US dollar started looking elsewhere as they have reduced their positions. Staunch allies like the UK and "un-named off shore accounts" have picked up some slack. The dollar has more to fall. Figure another 15-20% minimum from current levels. The dollar is anything but rock solid and the choice of the world. This is precisely why gold has gone up 2.5X since 2002, a general fear of the dollar becoming weaker.
Dow vs gold ratio is a fact. There is no disputing it used to be 42 and is now around 18. The trend has been to continue to shrink it.
This won't change until the metals cycle comes to an end and stocks reach a final washout bottom down the road. All the discussion on the blogs don't change facts and trends...policies do as well as consumer habits. There is no massive pile of gold waiting to be sold.
The central banks have given up quite a bit of their war chest over the past 15 years towards the gold carry trade and to supress the gold price. There are tracks out there that tend to indicate the US has sold off some or much of it's own bullion. While there is a "lot" of gold in the world, it still pales in comparison to all the currency floating around. All the gold in the world only comes to a few trillion dollars. That's peanuts compared to what else is out there. A few trillion trades daily on the currency markets. And the selling of physical gold has done very little to keep the price depressed. Rather it is the naked short selling of gold stocks (ie shares) that the govt's Exchange Stabilization Fund has used as the method to push the gold price down at times. Sell shares that you don't have.
If they had to actually sell real gold, the game would end tomorrow.
The world as a whole is currently under money stock binging of +10% or more per year (China around 18% and Russia over 40%).
If thisn't inflationary I don't know what is. The US is actually a laggard in the M3 game at only +10 to +11% per year. The compounding of interest during the current period is not going to be much help to anyone. And with the housing game pretty much down the tubes what's the next "get rich quick" scheme that's gonna be hoisted on the masses?
roadrunner >>
I totally disagree with your 2001 to 2012 "bust" theory. You read to many gold bug newsletters. You are totally missing real global GDP growth worldwide.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.