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Say, gold might have a good time pretty soon.
topstuf
Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
"The solution will be to devalue the dollar through massive hyperinflation. There is a debt repayment crisis coming. The Master Planners either have to goose the housing inflation game again, or hand out trillions of dollars to American Households to pay off their debts, in effect monetize our debt at the expense of a 50 percent devaluation of the dollar. "
Conclusion of the mortgage "crisis"
Conclusion of the mortgage "crisis"
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But the FED will cut rates and allow the dollar to tank.
The next thing we will hear is that REAL WAGES have to grow to get us out of this crunch.
Put the problem right back in the private sector.
<< <i>I always discount people with an agenda or a product to sell. >>
Never look at eBay or coin dealer sites, huh?
<< <i>
<< <i>I always discount people with an agenda or a product to sell. >>
Never look at eBay or coin dealer sites, huh?
We all know there's no mortgage crisis, everything is just great and if you don't believe that just ask our Uncle.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I always discount people with an agenda or a product to sell. >>
Never look at eBay or coin dealer sites, huh?
We all know there's no mortgage crisis, everything is just great and if you don't believe that just ask our Uncle.
Unfortunately, there is always a crisis, real or imagined, with some of these newsletter writers. Some of them are terrible at market timing so can only sell sizzle, not steak. Thinking up end of the world scenarios, or conspiracy theories as to why the price is not moving, is stock and trade for some of these writers. In general, I find that 95% of them are a waste of time.
Name the band.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
I bought a house and I can't pay the mortgage.
Pay us now!
Ain't got the money.
Then sell something.
Ain't got nothing!
OK then, we're taking the house. By the way, you now owe taxes on the difference because the IRS has now IMPUTED income on what you didn't have to pay.
Huh?
Yep.
So what? I'll live on my annuity.
What annuity? The annuity company used your premiums to buy mortgage securities and now they ain't payin ya nuttin cuz nothin's comin in.
I never knew that.
Obviously. And the pensions did the same thing.
Huh?
Yep, and now since nobody planned on paying anything off, all the stuff that depended on getting paid off is now defunct.
What's "defunct?"
What you are.
Huh?
Didn't you ever learn ANYTHING? Or pay attention to ANYTHING you signed?
Nope, I was just interested in flippin the house.
Well...flip DIS!
...............And so on down the line. So few people understand the enormity of the mortgage CRISIS. (More serious than even the S&L crisis) that it will reverberate down EVERY single thing you do.
Think it's just a newsletter? Think again.
This will be the final straw to bust the dollar as the Treasury has NO CHOICES LEFT this time.
Wait an see. We've built an entire ECONOMY on housing and now we'll get to reap it.
Manufacturing left a long time ago and the only thing holding up the HOUSE of cards has been housing.
But 3 little words..... "I CAN"T PAY" are gonna follow this mess to the very end.
<< <i>"The solution will be to devalue the dollar through massive hyperinflation. There is a debt repayment crisis coming. The Master Planners either have to goose the housing inflation game again, or hand out trillions of dollars to American Households to pay off their debts, in effect monetize our debt at the expense of a 50 percent devaluation of the dollar. " >>
Which would, in effect, reward the (often) irresponsible people who racked up more debt than they could handle in allowing repayment with inflated dollars, perhaps at the expense of prudent people who pay down debt and pay cash for what they can afford.
<< <i>Which would, in effect, reward the (often) irresponsible people who racked up more debt than they could handle in allowing repayment with inflated dollars, perhaps at the expense of prudent people who pay down debt and pay cash for what they can afford. >>
Not this time. The reward (?) will be like the Weimar Notgeld and whoever depends on it will be toast.
Wait an see. We've built an entire ECONOMY on housing and now we'll get to reap it.
Manufacturing left a long time ago and the only thing holding up the HOUSE of cards has been housing.>>>
gawd don't i know that being ex-aerospace.boeing inorder to compete with airbuses walkaway 2 year lease came up with the buy x amount of planes and get x amount of the work-commercial aerospace took a dump years ago."seattle had a roadside billboard sayin that the last one out to please turn off the lights".f-16 work being done in "japan"-general dynamics moving south of the border...etc-etc-etc-"YUCK" repurcussions are still forth coming.
automotively speaking when ford announced it's opening of a manufacturing division in of all places "north vietnam" i could only feel the graves rollin in flint too not to mention dearborn
nice to see someone is on the ball with making the above statements
I would have thought the problems would have occurred in places where the housing market has been booming and prices through the roof (no pun intended). That is not where the problems exist.
I certainly believe there are linkages to manufacturing employment, but this is not a crisis that will bring down the financial markets. To me it is more reflective of the union problems that have domestic automakers upside down due to past agreements, making them less than competitive in the marketplace.
<< <i>I would have thought the problems would have occurred in places where the housing market has been booming and prices through the roof (no pun intended). That is not where the problems exist. >>
The "boom" areas are where the meltdown would have been worst if their economies imploded. It turns out the rust belt is where that's happening.
However, a lot of adjustable and teaser-rate mortgages will come due (or adjust higher) in the most expensive areas, where the only way many could "afford" the home was through interest-only ARMs with a balloon due in 3-7 years.
As these mortgages have their rates reset or the balloon comes due and the homeowners have to refi, unless their wage growth was unusually high they may have a LOT of trouble staying in the home.
We are making great PROGRESS (?)
Don't be surprised when medical care is socialized (so it can be ALLOCATED) and even then will be done with exam "terminals" and doctors from cheap areas of the world.
Already in progress
Why else the computerization of all med records? Tellya why. Yer gonna sit an be hooked up to a monitor module and the diagnosis will come from ....wherever. Meds will come from overseas (exept for a week or so supply on hand)
About all it is now except they still send you to a local sawbones.
That will change.
Emergency care only. And we'll gaily accept it as we do the China junk at Walmart.
Anything to save a buck. Even if the buck's worth a nickel.
Hey, I better not kid about America's "bullion" coin, the nickel.
Nickels.... worth 170% of face value.
Some radical adjustments a-comin.
Dumb Americans.
This reminds me of last fall, when gold had to go up because after some magic date the central banks would be forced to Buy.
That day came and went and gold continued to decline, which of course was the fault of evil manipulators, because the price has to go up.
Because they ....like... us.
This is one time I am not inclined to debate Red Tiger, and I do think that trying to time the price rise of precious metals is bound to be a frustrating exercise. That the Fed has overinflated the dollar and exported an enormous debt balloon and debt derivatives all over the world is not in dispute. Whether or not the economies of the world will spin out of control due to this phenomenon is.
End of world or no, I think there have never been as many sound reasons for gold to appreciate than there are now.
Oh, today I just heard that China wants into the Large Commercial Jet Market.................not surprising, eh? I wonder if Boeing will be opening up shop there................
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Crisis? What crisis?
Name the band. >>
Supertramp!
<< <i>"The solution will be to devalue the dollar through massive hyperinflation. There is a debt repayment crisis coming. The Master Planners either have to goose the housing inflation game again, or hand out trillions of dollars to American Households to pay off their debts, in effect monetize our debt at the expense of a 50 percent devaluation of the dollar. "
Conclusion of the mortgage "crisis"
The bad news is that the dollar has already been devalued by 50% against the euro ( remember the days when one dollar bought 1.33 euros , now only .75 euro , ) and the debt still keeps on rising
So far the mortgage crisis has cost about $112B. Yes big money but not enough to sink a GDP between $13 and $14 Trillion. The slow unwinding of this crisis is not just in the people who can't afford the house they are in and must sell. It is also in the mortgage industry that has tightened up standards for loans denying about 5% of folks the chance to get a mortgage. It's also in the construction business and in the home retailers like Home Depot and Lowe's.
The markets where this will have the most effect are parts of California, Las Vegas area and South Florida.
Of course this isn't the money evaporator the dot.com bust was. Most houses will not lose 80% of their value like the NASDAQ did. Of course the decent, but foolish, folks who used their house like an ATM and took cash out of equity to go spend and now cannot pay the mortgage will hurt. Maybe, just maybe they will get a bit smarter because of it. Currently MOST of the US has very good employment. Detroit keeps suffering.
The folks I feel sorry for? The family in LA who at the advice of a mortgage broker got into a $700K+ house when their houshold income was only $74K. There is no way, NO WAY this scenario could end up good unless the house kept going up and they could leave with the equity and look smart for leveraging to the absolute hilt. Oh, the interest only mortgage met its time requirement and moved up their monthly payment to give them a choice, food or mortgage payments.
Anywho, the reason I would be buying gold if I had the ca$h to do so? China is planning on using some of its $1Trillion current account surplus to begin investing in items besides US treasury products. Only a small percentage will go into things like COMMODITIES, but a small percentage of $1Trillion adds up to some serious money. Add to that that China is worried about inflation, gold seems like a good place to put some money.
Just my opinion, but I'd buy some gold if I had the money to do so.
<< <i>Take a look at the big picture...
How about showing us the big picture from 1980
This reminds me of last fall, when gold had to go up because after some magic date the central banks would be forced to Buy.
That day came and went and gold continued to decline, which of course was the fault of evil manipulators, because the price has to go up.
The price HAS to go up and it will. HD's chart clearly shows the trend. And more importantly we haven't even reached the strongest phases of the gold market yet. Ironically, the same naysayers will be the first to bad mouth gold when it doubles from here over the next few years (ie the 30 or 50 year track records will be quoted extensively to forecast the immediate end of the gold market cycle).
roadrunner
" The price HAS to go up and it will. " Well.....on that guarantee, I guess I'll hock everything I own and borrow everything I can and reap the rewards of this free advice.
I suppose it may be related to the repercussions in "normal" life that WILL occur when the dollar CERTAINLY reaches its nominal value of close to nothing. That will be a bitter pill for those who have consistently swallowed the "company line" even in the face of what history has done to previous societies who have THROWN AWAY their positions in the world.
And even though much of the historic gold profits have ended up going into solid rare coins.
An anomaly.
And IGNORANCE will be a feeble excuse to fall back on.
edited to dilute some ignorance
TODAY'S HEADLINES
Of course, it can't ....really.... happen.
As the link states.... it could be a misprint, a misunderstanding....or something.
It will certainly be characterized as such.
Name the band. >>
Supertramp!>>
I have it and love it!
This mini crisis will go away soon. It is a tiny thing compared to the mortgage crisis of 1990. This is in a smaller niche market. None of the readers of this forum would take out a negative amortization loan, would they?
The dollar will indeed continue on a downward path. Fortunately it won't be very sudden. All players want a smooth correction.
Read WHOLE article
<< <i>Meanwhile, Premier Wen Jiabao said at a news conference at the end of the legislative session that the world should not fear China's military rise. >>
The Chinese never WERE and NEVER WILL BE.... "friends" of the US.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Strangely, this forum, supposedly comprised of students of coinage history and results of historical debasements, is very antagonistic toward the reality of gold.
... >>
Readers know that I have been and remain steadfastly bullish on gold for the long term. Anyone who categorizes me as antagonistic towards gold would be incorrect.
That said, I've heard that the sky is falling so many times from the gold newsletter crowd, that it is almost comical. Every little hiccup, every big hiccup in the economy and the sky is falling articles tumble out. If there are no news events, some of the newsletter writers start to make up stuff, some of which would border on comical if they weren't serious, and their subscribers weren't investing real money on their statements. Yes, eventually, the sky may fall, however, the timing of it and the way it unfolds is unlikely to be stated by a gold newsletter writer, many of whom depend on subscription money to pay their bills. There are a lot smarter folks than those writing newsletters that live on the goodwill of the subscribers.
From where I sit, the gold perma-bulls are a strong group here on the board. The few perma bears seem to have gone into hibernation with the current bull run.
<< <i>
<< <i>Strangely, this forum, supposedly comprised of students of coinage history and results of historical debasements, is very antagonistic toward the reality of gold.
... >>
Readers know that I have been and remain steadfastly bullish on gold for the long term. Anyone who categorizes me as antagonistic towards gold would be incorrect.
That said, I've heard that the sky is falling so many times from the gold newsletter crowd, that it is almost comical. Every little hiccup, every big hiccup in the economy and the sky is falling articles tumble out. If there are no news events, some of the newsletter writers start to make up stuff, some of which would border on comical if they weren't serious, and their subscribers weren't investing real money on their statements. Yes, eventually, the sky may fall, however, the timing of it and the way it unfolds is unlikely to be stated by a gold newsletter writer, many of whom depend on subscription money to pay their bills. There are a lot smarter folks than those writing newsletters that live on the goodwill of the subscribers.
From where I sit, the gold perma-bulls are a strong group here on the board. The few perma bears seem to have gone into hibernation with the current bull run. >>
Gone into hibernation?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Take a look at the big picture... >>
<< <i>
How about showing us the big picture from 1980 >>
You are missing the point-- the chart is clearly showing the new bull cycle
in gold which started around 2001. This isn't a continuation of the last one.
<< <i>
<< <i>Strangely, this forum, supposedly comprised of students of coinage history and results of historical debasements, is very antagonistic toward the reality of gold.
... >>
Readers know that I have been and remain steadfastly bullish on gold for the long term. Anyone who categorizes me as antagonistic towards gold would be incorrect.
That said, I've heard that the sky is falling so many times from the gold newsletter crowd, that it is almost comical. Every little hiccup, every big hiccup in the economy and the sky is falling articles tumble out. If there are no news events, some of the newsletter writers start to make up stuff, some of which would border on comical if they weren't serious, and their subscribers weren't investing real money on their statements. Yes, eventually, the sky may fall, however, the timing of it and the way it unfolds is unlikely to be stated by a gold newsletter writer, many of whom depend on subscription money to pay their bills. There are a lot smarter folks than those writing newsletters that live on the goodwill of the subscribers.
From where I sit, the gold perma-bulls are a strong group here on the board. The few perma bears seem to have gone into hibernation with the current bull run. >>
So you shouldn't take advice to buy gold from someone who is selling gold, but it's OK to buy stocks from someone who tells you to buy stocks? Why do some people always discount gold sellers as doom and gloomers who are only promoting gold in self interest, but give a complete pass to stock brokers and other wall street types who are selling stocks and making billions in the process?
Even the term gold bug" is a cheap way to dehumanize commodity investors. Maybe we should start using the terms "stock rat" and "real estate tapeworm" to be fair.
<< <i>
Even the term gold bug" is a cheap way to dehumanize commodity investors. Maybe we should start using the terms "stock rat" and "real estate tapeworm" to be fair. >>
Use whatever terms appeal to you. Some folks here are taking comments way too personally. Folks, it is just business. Don't let investment preferences get in the way of clear thinking.
I have nothing to sell and clearly say so. James Dines accepts the label the "original gold bug" and wears it with pride. If it helps sell newsletters, he'd probably accept "precious metal tapeworm" or "the uranium rat." The vast majority of newsletter writers are primarily in the business of selling newsletters. Many are no brighter than the average person on the board, and some write more for entertainment value than with useful money making ideas--again, my opinions and experiences.
The original poster linked, what I see as another "sky is falling" scenario over what is in my opinion a hiccup (the subprime mortgage defaults) in the American economy. Get a grip. These kind of events happen every other year, and the sky hasn't fallen yet. In an average year, the stock market has four 2% down days. When one or two of them happen, too many are looking for more than is there. In my opinion and considerable experience these are average events and by themselves not worth getting worried or excited about.
It seems to me that you only hear "The Sky is falling" from those that discount medals and love stocks. They don't understand market cycles and are under the impression that only gold has a buy, sell, and storage fee and must go up in value to make money.
They don't even consider that many stocks have no dividend (or little) with the best not even making 4%. They are also front end or back end loaded on buy and sells, and have a 1% or more fee tied to them. You must pay a broker a yearly fee to keep your account open. Sure sounds like stocks too must rise to make money, maybe they aren't a good store of wealth either.
here ya go
<< <i>Which DOW? How many times has it been ..um.. redrawn ... to eliminate them unpatriotic laggards?
Doesn't matter.....if you would have bought one share in a dow fund and one 1oz gold bullion in 1980 your return would look exactly like those two charts.
I have NO idea what the answer is to this, but my point is that investing in companies is investing in opportunity were you can grow your capital Gold is a store of wealth that reflects the value of gold in the world market and the currency you use to value it. For example, if you bought gold 3 years ago and lived in France and used Euros, how much did you pay then and what is it worth now? Again I have no data on this, but use it as an example.
I am not a naysayer to holding gold, I just have no belief that it will help my portfolio expand. I hold bonds for the same reason, diversification. Everyone gets to choose their own risk profile, for me that means dabbling 1 percent or 1/2 a percent in gold coins with numismatic value.
All that said, the newsletter guys and chartists always make me laugh. They are a good read, but I never take them seriously.
gold djia
10/05 $440 10500
10/06 $600 12200
today $661 12272
Today, the gold story isn't in the ...............past.
Wait and see.
Maybe I'm wrong.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
History of Gold
Looking more and more like history DOES repeat itself!
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
Stock valuation is a shell game. Holding stocks for capital appreciation is fine in a rising market, where there is plenty of liquidity. And this excludes the market traps which occur every 10 years or so due to corporate shenanigans, like the dotcom bust, like the junk bond bust, and now, like the housing market subprime mortgage crunch (it ain't over yet, guys).
Like I said, "fine in a rising market............."
It has been a long time since a wholesale liquidation of the stock market has taken place - say, about 78 years or so. Maybe the Fed has figured out how to permanently and continuously inflate the dollar without panicking holders of U.S. debt and still be able to fuel the U.S. economy enough to avoid a recession.
Or, maybe not.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Maybe the Fed has figured out how to permanently and continuously inflate the dollar without panicking holders of U.S. debt and still be able to fuel the U.S. economy enough to avoid a recession. >>
They sure have. It's called "keeping people stupid." Workin great so far. Cept it may not work that well on the FOREIGN holders of US debt. But, so what? As long as the domestic geeks will work for it, all's well.
But....enough of this, class.... it's time for DIVERSITY studies. We'll get into "nutrition" later this afternoon, and then we'll count up the boxes of cookies for you to sell to your parents and relatives to raise some money for the athletic department.
And Johnny, you put that Economics book away right now.
<< <i>If you buy gold and hold it 5 years you still have the same volume of gold you started with. Stocks on the other hand, have the ability to produce economic wealth through growth. It would be really interesting to see what $100 of stock in AT&T before the breakup would be worth today after all the mergers after the original dissolution.
I have NO idea what the answer is to this, but my point is that investing in companies is investing in opportunity were you can grow your capital Gold is a store of wealth that reflects the value of gold in the world market and the currency you use to value it. For example, if you bought gold 3 years ago and lived in France and used Euros, how much did you pay then and what is it worth now? Again I have no data on this, but use it as an example.
I am not a naysayer to holding gold, I just have no belief that it will help my portfolio expand. I hold bonds for the same reason, diversification. Everyone gets to choose their own risk profile, for me that means dabbling 1 percent or 1/2 a percent in gold coins with numismatic value.
All that said, the newsletter guys and chartists always make me laugh. They are a good read, but I never take them seriously. >>
Excellent post and perspective...
The real beauty of gold is its ability to adjust to changes in relative valuations
suddenly. This allows for good profits in short periods even where the long term
outlook is generally less rosy. Now may be a good time to hold gold.
You missed the point when you listed a Dow vs. Gold chart.
Rather than list them separately you should have shown a single chart of the Dow to Gold ratio (ie Dow vs. Gold). This ratio declined towards 1:1 during the 1970's as stocks floundered and metals took off (eventually peaking out in early 1980 at 1:1). The ratio has historically cycled from above 40:1 to as low as 1:1 as stocks came in or out of favor. Currently the ratio has fallen from a peak of around 42 during 2001 to about 18 today. This clearly shows the trend of more metals and less DOW over the past 6 years. If history repeats, the ratio will continue to work its way into single digits as the gold cycle matures. This should come about from either gold prices increasing, stock prices falling, or a combination of both.
It's all about Dow vs. Gold. That chart doesn't lie. And ironically, it's the same one ounce of gold that existed in 1929, but certainly a much different DOW with laggards tossed out along the way.
roadrunner
I've spent the last hour or so googling gold/dow ratio and most degenerated into political rants ( at which time I bailed out ), but to sum them up, they seemed to evolve around inflation, and what a person might think of his standard of living. And this, I think, supports my contention that gold isn't the place to be to secure one's future. A get rich quick scheme maybe, if you can time the ups and downs, but thats more gambling than investing.
The gold chart that I posted showed the price of 1oz gold in 1980 as $681 ( in 1980 dollars ) vs the same 1oz gold in 2007 costing $672.50 ( in 2007 dollars ). I was around in 1979 when silver and gold was climbing every day. I believe silver went to $50oz and gold to $800oz. Is there anyone out there who doubts that there is a massive pile of metal waiting to be sold? Gold represents fear.
American dollars represents confidence. No matter what anyone might think of her policies today, America isn't going anywhere and neither are her dollars. They are traded all over the world. We are a very stable country and we are the glue that holds the world together. I think other countries hate us because they are so envious of us. I see people sneaking across our borders and I never see Americans trying to sneak out. Go to other countries and, chances are, you'll be approached by someone wanting to buy your dollars. I've yet to see an American offering a foreign tourist dollars for their currency.
Actually, if a young person were to ask me how to get rich, and have a secure future, I would tell them to google up the "miracle of compounding interest". It truly is the eighth wonder of the world. Now there's a way to get rich. In the long haul, nothing beats interest.