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"Most of the coins available for sale now are extremely low end and this is having a negative i
RYK
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"Most of the coins available for sale now are extremely low end and this is having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins. But knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment. (Got that straight?) "
This is a direct quote from Doug Winter's post-Charlotte show blog. Link
Laura, and others, have been saying the same for a while.
This is a direct quote from Doug Winter's post-Charlotte show blog. Link
Laura, and others, have been saying the same for a while.
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Is this another take on "buy the coin, not the holder"? I have purchased eye-appealing (IMO) PCGS coins over PCGS coins with higher technical grades, but low (and I mean low, not just 'lower') eye-appeal (IMO) that I actively avoided. To me, this makes relying on technical grades only (what the price guides do?) a fallacy.
Should an eye-appeal grade be added for every grade in addition to the technical grade? Say an eye-appeal grade of 1-5, with 1 being "nasty ugly" and 5 being amazing eye-appeal. Then coins could have grades like MS65/3.
certainly Mr. Winter et al have a better perspective on the overall market than me and you, but in spite of this perception there always seems to be quality coins available for purchase and coins available at auction that are nice. my view is that during the past several years so much has come on the market that it's affected the hobby's perception of quality and value in the same fashion that it's affected the major grading services and how they assign grades. put in simpler terms, as a larger pool of a certain item is seen the overall impression of the best/worst/average items changes. so many "monsters" have been at auction over the past couple of years that the bar on what's PQ has been raised to the point where previously gem coins are now only average. it taints the dealer perception more and faster than our perception simply because they're more active in seeing the entire realm of offerings.
i consider that the same thing happens with the grading services over the course of time: as a larger pool of a specific issue is seen the overall assessment changes. i think it's impossible to expect an individual or an entity to remain stagnant in terms of how a specific grade is assigned, experience changes things and the experience of the past 5-8 years has been bigger, better, more, higher. ask Mr. Winter to look at what he considers an average coin today through the eyes of 1999 and his perception wouldn't be the same. it's entirely possible that the average coin of today would be a "Monster rarely seen" back in 1999.
in a sense, we are a victim of our own success.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
From the thoroughbred horse business I understand "The bottom is falling out of the market". What this means is, the cheap horses become cheaper and a little after that, the quailty stock falls on it's butt.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Is this something like "bad money drives out good money?"
Guess I don't get it.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>If you truly buy the coin, not the holder, the market is not "bifurcated". Instead, all plastic is equally worthless and each coin is judged on its own merits. >>
This guy is good!
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Bottom line, it seems to be going the way it should, nice coins folks want.... and will pay for, the crap sits. Now I'm sure some dealers are glad collectors have wised up, while at the same time there are many more that don't like this. Not just because of the "hot-potato" thing, but just that collectors have wised up and thinking more before they spend their hard earned $$$$$.
they don't need to carry on their inventory any more crap
the thing is what they consider crap, many collectors would be thrilled with
I have accumulated quite a variety of coins/grades/denominations that I thought were cool/interesting when i got them
but now much of it I consider crap, never to buy that stuff again
as I set my sights on more quality rather than quantity
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>I can't afford to buy from dealers who talk about tiers. >>
Well, they probably ain't got time for you then.
auction soon with no coin valued at less than $10,000.
I wouldn't call that crap.
JT
I collect all 20th century series except gold including those series that ended there.
<< <i>no coin valued at less than $10,000. I wouldn't call that crap. >>
Expensive crap?
I think many of the low end coins being discussed in two-tier market discussions are over $10K.
<< <i>they don't need to carry on their inventory any more crap >>
What I hear, and my translation is...... "we used to be able to sell the crap for big$$$, now the Basteges are getting picky and only pay big$$$ for the good stuff." That's my take anyways.
<< <i>"Most of the coins available for sale now are extremely low end and this is having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins. But knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment. (Got that straight?) "
This is a direct quote from Doug Winter's post-Charlotte show blog. Link
Laura, and others, have been saying the same for a while. >>
I think I agree with what I understand to be the gist of this comment.
What I don't quite understand is if knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment then how are most of the low end coins available for sale now having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
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<< <i>"Most of the coins available for sale now are extremely low end and this is having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins. But knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment. (Got that straight?) "
This is a direct quote from Doug Winter's post-Charlotte show blog. Link
Laura, and others, have been saying the same for a while. >>
I think I agree with what I understand to be the gist of this comment.
What I don't quite understand is if knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment then how are most of the low end coins available for sale now having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins? >>
It could be that there were some collectors that are not knowledgeable specialists that were helping support prices on really nice coins. If they can't appreciate nice coins vs. low end and have pulled out of the market, then some support for really nice coins may have left.
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<< <i>"Most of the coins available for sale now are extremely low end and this is having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins. But knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment. (Got that straight?) "
This is a direct quote from Doug Winter's post-Charlotte show blog. Link
Laura, and others, have been saying the same for a while. >>
I think I agree with what I understand to be the gist of this comment.
What I don't quite understand is if knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment then how are most of the low end coins available for sale now having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins? >>
It could be that there were some collectors that are not knowledgeable specialists that were helping support prices on really nice coins. If they can't appreciate nice coins vs. low end and have pulled out of the market, then some support for really nice coins may have left. >>
Ahh, could be true....but on the other hand I would think that the "really nice coins" could actually bring higher prices because there are truly fewer of them around and that would trump the collectors who pulled out of the market who supported prices by buying low end.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Some non-specialists may have bid moon money for coins that was far above what a rare coin can get from knowledgeable specialists. >>
Yes, but bid moon money with the belief there were more of them around (IE: the low ends and the high ends being lumped together)
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Some non-specialists may have bid moon money for nice coins far above what the coin can get from knowledgeable specialists. If they are spooked by the proliferation of low end coins and their inability to differentiate, then the moon money may have left for the time being. Imagine you're a new collector and bought a $46k Gobrecht that you found out sold for $20k in a previous auction as a problem coin, would you be inclined to take a breather from more acquisitions? The specialists may not have the big enough wallets to compensate for the collectors that left. If this has occurred, then the flip side may be that the really nice coins can end up in the collections of people that appreciate them more now. >>
And at even higher prices I think.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
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<< <i>Some non-specialists may have bid moon money for coins that was far above what a rare coin can get from knowledgeable specialists. >>
Yes, but bid moon money with the belief there were more of them around (IE: the low ends and the high ends being lumped together) >>
I don't think it's completely out of the question that some non-specialists did bid on truly nice coins. The non-specialists may have very big wallets that are hard to replace.
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<< <i>Some non-specialists may have bid moon money for coins that was far above what a rare coin can get from knowledgeable specialists. >>
Yes, but bid moon money with the belief there were more of them around (IE: the low ends and the high ends being lumped together) >>
I don't think it's completely out of the question that some non-specialists did bid on truly nice coins. The non-specialists may have very big wallets that are hard to replace. >>
Yes and even if a non specialist bought a truly nice coin because of a fat wallet then, well they become the new overbid market for the truly nice coin.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
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<< <i>Some non-specialists may have bid moon money for coins that was far above what a rare coin can get from knowledgeable specialists. >>
Yes, but bid moon money with the belief there were more of them around (IE: the low ends and the high ends being lumped together) >>
I don't think it's completely out of the question that some non-specialists did bid on truly nice coins. The non-specialists may have very big wallets that are hard to replace. >>
Yes and even if a non specialist bought a truly nice coin because of a fat wallet then, well they become the new overbid market for the truly nice coin. >>
Not necessarily. In a post-moon money situation, the coin may not realize prices anywhere near as high as the moon money prices if at least two high rollers are not present when the coin comes for sale again. If specialist collectors aren't willing to pay moon money prices and non-specialist moon money collectors are not present in the market, prices will come down from their moon money highs. Prices don't only go in one direction, even for nice coins.
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<< <i>Some non-specialists may have bid moon money for coins that was far above what a rare coin can get from knowledgeable specialists. >>
Yes, but bid moon money with the belief there were more of them around (IE: the low ends and the high ends being lumped together) >>
I don't think it's completely out of the question that some non-specialists did bid on truly nice coins. The non-specialists may have very big wallets that are hard to replace. >>
Yes and even if a non specialist bought a truly nice coin because of a fat wallet then, well they become the new overbid market for the truly nice coin. >>
Not necessarily. In a post-moon money situation, the coin may not realize prices anywhere near as high as the moon money prices if at least two high rollers are not present when the coin comes for sale again. If specialist collectors aren't willing to pay moon money prices and non-specialist moon money collectors are not present in the market, prices will come down from their moon money highs. Prices don't only go in one direction, even for nice coins. >>
True, not necessarily, but if the real market for a truly nice coin is really 4 examples instead of 12 examples then the remaining non specialists and specialists may recognize this and pay even higher for the 4 examples. What is hard is for anyone to see all the examples at once and make a real determination.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>What I don't quite understand is if knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment then how are most of the low end coins available for sale now having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins? >>
Do you still think there is absolutely no chance of the situation in the original quote happening? The simple fact may be that the knowledgeable specialists don't have enough money.
<< <i>It can go either way and each coin will be a different situation. Your original question I was responding to was:
<< <i>What I don't quite understand is if knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment then how are most of the low end coins available for sale now having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins? >>
Do you still think there is absolutely no chance of the situation in the original quote happening? The simple fact may be that the knowledgeable specialists don't have enough money. >>
Sure it can go either way and sure there is absolutely a chance of the situation happening in the original quote. I guess my viewpoint is if I am a specialist and I know I have something really nice I would have no problem asking moon money regardless of who stayed in or who dropped out. ( post moon) I may not have said this 20 years ago, but that is another discussion.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Sure it can go either way and sure there is absolutely a chance of the situation happening in the original quote. I guess my viewpoint is if I am a specialist and I know I have something really nice I would have no problem asking moon money regardless of who stayed in or who dropped out. ( post moon) I may not have said this 20 years ago, but that is another discussion.
Some of this depends on whether the owner is a motivated seller or not. If the owner has a strong desire to free up some money, s/he may not be willing to wait until strong post-moon money shows up again, which could be a very long time. In your scenario, you are not a motivated seller so you can always wait but not everyone may feel that way. There's nothing wrong with asking very strong money, lots of people do it, the question becomes how long you're willing to hold it.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
As for the rest, many interesting comments and suggestions.
I guess the bottom line is that coins will sell for what they are worth and not sell if the price is too high. Pretty profound stuff, huh?
As for DW's comment, as they related to his niche, I can totally see where he is coming from. The ratio of nice, original southern gold coins to unoriginal and fugly coins is about one to ten...at best. Coin price guides are based on averages, retails sales and auction prices realized. The junky, overgraded coins are weighted the same as the nice, original coins, and the former are holding the prices down for the latter. As someone who considers himself somewhat knowledgeable in this area, I often wonder if the nice coins should sell for a premium or the junky coins should sell for a discount. I have little doubt that the abundance of the latter makes it hard to sell the nice ones for strong money.
I also agree with Stman's remarks. The typical coin buyer is becoming more sophisticated and is not just buying anything offered.
<< <i>The ratio of nice, original southern gold coins to unoriginal and fugly coins is about one to ten...at best. Coin price guides are based on averages, retails sales and auction prices realized. The junky, overgraded coins are weighted the same as the nice, original coins, and the former are holding the prices down for the latter. As someone who considers himself somewhat knowledgeable in this area, I often wonder if the nice coins should sell for a premium or the junky coins should sell for a discount. I have little doubt that the abundance of the latter makes it hard to sell the nice ones for strong money. >>
In my first post to this thread, I wondered if this new pricing dichotomy makes the price guides that give a single price per grade a lot less useful. It seems like the price guides can no longer adequately describe what is happening in the market. Perhaps it's not the proliferation of low end coins that is holding back the nice coins, but the way grading and price guides are done?
The other thing that has affected all of this is the upgrade submission phenomenon. With an elevated market and, more importantly, exagerrated valuation steps, the trend of coins to be continually resubmitted to get an arguably inflated grade is undeniably happening. The result? Nearly all PQ for the grade coins become low end for the grade, the new grade.
So for this latter issue, prices should trend down and that would be entirely warranted. It doesn't indicate itself a broken market, just a certification problem. Actually, it is not a problem as long as we all understand the deal. the ocassional PQ coin should still garner attention and higher valuations. Certification helps but it always still comes down to the coin and its merits.
Regarding the former issue, until the strong hands release the very limited slice of high quality coins, and they will here and there, the market will continue as it is. Funny how major show bourses look a lot like crappy local ones in the typical quality of inventories offered lately.
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I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>maybe the easiest way to think nothing nice or fresh is availabe is to box yourself into looking at either a very narrow Type of coin(s) or a very narrow Grade of coin(s). from what i see at shows/shops/web-sites there's something available for any open minded collector, though maybe not for someone with tunnel-vision. >>
Keets
I really like that advice and I am going to do that next show. But I do have one problem. Well actually more than one problem but it seems like everytime I venture outside of my experise I end up paying too much or don't know what I bought.
But your advice really hit home at the last show. I couldn't find one decent bust half for any price but I spotted an 1816 Pillar Dollar that was probably VF30 but with a gorgeous original patina for $85. So like an idiot I walk around trying to find out what a pillar dollar brings. No luck so I hot foot it back to buy it anyway. Gone - gone - gone.
I bombed out and left the show having driven over 350 miles round trip and only spending $65. All the way home I am kicking my self in the rear and my wife is saying, "it's okay, it's okay, you'll get over it." In time that is.
<< <i>I also agree with Stman's remarks. The typical coin buyer is becoming more sophisticated and is not just buying anything offered. >>
Well, yeah, you said it much nicer and more "sophisticated" than I did but it's all good. Heh heh
<< <i>I also agree with Stman's remarks. The typical coin buyer is becoming more sophisticated and is not just buying anything offered. >>
Maybe we are simply coming to realize that it is a huge advantage to have the right dealer for the job ... I have never purchased a bad coin from Legend, Rinkor, Twitty, or RCNH.
I hear dealers claim the public doesn't know that this coin is a keeper and they should pay more for it, I hear TPG's say that dealers can't grade (at least 80%) of them anyway. It's all very confusing. Now I am to believe that lower cost coins are dragging down the so called cream.
What a hobby we have, the public doesn't know what they are doing, the dealers don't and even big brother (TPG's) can't seem to agree or get it right. You put all this together and it seems to boil down to perspective, i.e. which rung you are on in the hobby.
Pardon me if I get a laugh out of all of this. Oh well enough babbling for now, I gotta go help the wife.
<< <i>If you truly buy the coin, not the holder, the market is not "bifurcated". Instead, all plastic is equally worthless and each coin is judged on its own merits. >>
The problem is, the same thing is happening with raw coins. So it ain't just the plastic.
And there's little continuum in the valuation depending on degree of problems (or lack thereof). There is often a chasm in valuation between choice, original pieces and anything with a "problem."
<< <i>They offer a low end semi ugly looking coin for $1,000.00 and offers it for $1,250.00. Another dealer PAYS $1,500.00 for a wonderful nice example of the same coin and asks $1,750.00.
Both advertise their coins. But the dealer who has the dreck obviously is selling his for less, but describes his coin as being nice.
The cheapo coin sells. The expensive coin then does not sell and languishes. The dealer who owns the expensive coin either ends up wholesaling it or takes a loss. That dealer then is hesitant to pay strong for more nice coins. >>
I wonder about this. When I look at auction sites and see obviously superior coins imaged well, they regularly blow the "trends" away. The run-of-the-mill schlock doesn't. It's not even close.
So doesn't it depend on (a) the venue and (b) the audience being reached (more advanced and discriminating collectors versus people who will chase anything slabbed with the right number)? The latter would surely pay $1,750 for the nice coin than $1,250 for a relatively junky counterpart. In fact, the latter would likely do without if they couldn't "reach" for the $1,750 (which is unlikely if they could afford $1,250).
[Edit to add: Where is the dealer with the nicer coin advertising? If they don't have a discriminating client at the ready for that coin in their want list, if it's truly a superior coin it should go to auction.]
By definition, one coin is always better or worse than another coin, as there are no two identical coins. This is especially true of coins that were issued as money.
Only purchase coins that YOU like. Don't let someone else tell you to purchase a coin that you do not like.
Do not let the quoted thread affect acquiring coins for your collections.
YOU be the final judge of coins for your collection.
I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.
eBaystore
But today, there are multiple coins for sale, and in auctions, that are rare and highly desireable.
I can see on dealer web sites and auctions 3 Cardinal collection Early dollars, 3 1802 halves in AU 50 or better, 2 1794 halves in PCGS 58, several bust halves in 65 and 66, the ultra rare 1812/1 lg 8 half in AU 55, and more proof gold than seen in several years.
But the prices asked are high, compared to 3 years ago. I do not see where the low end coins are holding down the pricing on rare coins.
The question is whether the rare coins will sell at these higher levels.
The pricing system is only broken if dealers allow their customers to be snowed into believing that grading is objective. It isn't and it never can be, and that is ok. Julian is right when he says that ultimately you have to buy the coin that you like. I think this is true both in terms of price and quality. Educate yourself and find the deals that appeal to you.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake