What percentage of coins should be considered PQ?
Shamika
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We all know of sellers that claim most of their coins are Premium Quality, but what percentage of the general population do you think should be considered PQ? The upper 50? 20%? 5%?
Buyer and seller of vintage coin boards!
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Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
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Consider a MS65 grade. The coin could be anything from MS65.000 to MS65.999. This is arbitrary, as we could go to 100 decimal places if one cared to or just one like we currently have. I will select one decimal point. There fore we have 10 different MS65 coins to consider. Out of a pool of say 1000 MS65 1880-s Morgans we pick 10 to be representative of each decimal: 65.0, 65.1, ... 65.9.
These coins were picked by the top 10 graders in the world. They sat down and worked out among themselves the best possible ranking.
By definition, the ones graded MS65.7, MS65.8, MS65.9 are certainly PQ for grade. In this case, 30% of the coins in our hands are PQ.
If we picked from random out of those orig 1,000 coins, the PQness could range from no coins to say 500 coins. This depends on who sorted them, when they were purchased, how fussy they were, etc.
That is not a random event.
Out of a perfectly mixed group of 1000 random coins that are representative of the market today, I'd say that 5-10% are PQ.
If you use only fresh coins coming out of the grading services, before resubmittal can occur, I'd say 10-20% are PQ (graders are 80% accurate) on average.
The point of this long-winded diatribe is that there are indeed PQ coins out there. They are made by the grading services every day.
And there are PQ coins lost by the services each day (ie resubmitted upgrade coins). PQ coins bring more money, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. If you don't get more money for your PQ coin, the next guy will. If you buy a PQ coin for no extra money, lucky you.
Grading is continuous...by theorem...there are PQ coins on that curve. And there are LE (low end) ones too. And the distribution is fairly random (ie there are as many 65.1 as there are 65.9 coming fresh out of the grading services). This fact is a key driving factor in our industry.
roadrunner
<< <i>Depends how you define PQ. >>
True. If you mean without gradeflation, it's closer and closer to zero with each round of crackouts. But you could also theoretically define it as "the best X% for any given grade." I prefer the former definition, though.
I don't agree that we head to zero. One could almost say it doesn't change if the WHOLE pop of coins is considered. Sure, the bourse floor heads towards zero, UNTIL market price increases draw out those 65.9 coins and reward them with a 66 grade. Many stay as 65.9 but get rewarded with 66.2 money so the pops can't account for those. There are multiple forces at work here.
There is a constant shift to move the grading continuum upwards. That 65.9 coin that made MS66 5 years ago, just might make MS67 (66.8) next year. For all the new upgrade coins that just made 65.0, there are others at 65.9 that became 66.0 at the same time. There is a constant push at both ends of that 1 pt spectrum. So to say it gets filled up at the bottom, and nothing comes off the top, doesn't quite make sense.
If all the very upper end coins were constantly resubmitted, I think the % of PQ coins would be constant. For every 64.8 being upgraded, a 65.8 would be upgraded as well. The one exception to this is where a coin no longer has any specimens above a certain level. But common date Morgans, common type, etc. all work pretty well.
To those sellers that typically claim such and such is in the top 1, 5, or 10% of the grade, is usually not the case. If so, the top 1 or 5% coins would eventually upgrade. Crack out dealers won't let those types of coins go very easily. If I have a top 1 in 20 coin of anything, that's a really PQ coin. That should be MS65.95 by definition. We already know that MS65.7 and 65.8 coins often get upgraded on the right day. A top 20 coin is a shoe-in imo. Even a top 10% coin for grade (imagine the best MS67 pre-1866 seated half PCGS has graded....there are only around 10 total specimens) is a good bet to upgrade and it is certainly PQ and worthy of a strong premium. Give me those 10 coins to pick from, and I'd bet there is one that stands out head and shoulders as a PQ+ MS67. That coin is the next MS68. Sellers often don't let these types of coins go very easily and w/o strong premiums.
roadrunner
<< <i>None. It is nothing more than another form of hype. >>
Now that isn't really true. Quality is on a continuum.
<< <i>Depends how you define PQ. >>
PQ to me is a coin that is close to the next higher. With that said, in your opinion how close must a coin be to the next grade to be considered PQ.
We all define PQness differently. I define it basically by price and value. Others may define it by eye appeal or color only. Or just an absence of marks for the grade. But a more workable overall definition is market value imo. The fact that MS66 $5 Libs in NGC holders at auction can bring from $3600 to $7500 tells me that PQness is most definitely at work.
roadrunner
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
Based on this and my observations most coins are overall just ugly...maybe less than 20%. There are very few coins out there that haven't been played with or were just fugly to being with. So I'd say 20% or less are PQ, so to speak. This is just MY observation of the coin market and what I deem pretty may not be what others think.
jom
JMHO, Jon
This MS63 coin might technically grade 63.5 but the market acceptance of the coin might be 63.7 due to eye appeal, and therefore it would be considered a PQ coin worth a MS 63.7 price.
A group of top graders or dealers should place your coin ahead of others in the 63.5 and 63.6 range because of the overall appeal (and overall market value).
Quality and "net" grade are the same thing to me. But since the holders don't have decimal grades, PQness is up for us to factor in.
roadrunner
You could find a MS63 coin (or what you call 63.7) that is a higher quality than many graded MS64s in the same date and series. I see it all of the time. Another area you see this is the difference between certain AU coins and crap MS coins. That is what I do not consider quality and grade the same thing. Again, this is just how I view it but others will differ. Each comes to their own conclusion of dealing with the crazy world of coin grading.
jom
I agree, also, much has been spoken about the mint state grades What about in collector grades? I am sure coins exist in PQ in fine, very fine, etc.
Steve
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If the sample of 100 coins are fresh, they will be nicer on average than picked over lots. If the 100 fresh coins were in a dealer's case, all priced the same, a people could wager on which coins will sell first. Those are the PQ ones. The ones that are left behind after a few days of a busy bourse, would tend to be the low end ones. Again, this would be if all the coins are priced the same, and that is not the reality in today's market. The nice coins often trade for double what the low end coins trade for at true auction. Market prices reflect that reality.
What is sad that some of the low end coins are marked up to full retail and end up with collectors that don't know how to grade, or investors who mostly care about the label on the holder, not the coin inside.
0% of the non-PQ coins
bit then these have only had one trip to pcgs.
<< <i>And the distribution is fairly random (ie there are as many 65.1 as there are 65.9 coming fresh out of the grading services). >>
RR - Actually, that's not true. If there were as many 65.1 as there are 65.9, then by the same arguement there would be as many 65.9 as there are 66.0 as there are 66.1 as there are 70.0! If one were to be accurate, the mode would indicate some grade between 70.0 and 1.0 above or below which the populations starts to decrease.
<< <i> It may certainly be that the market says "PQ" means near the next highest grade, as Shamika and roadrunner pointed out. However, I do not view quality the same as grade. Premium Quality can be a coin that is dead center of, say, the MS63 range but is far prettier than others in the same grade. As far as I'm concerned quality and grade are NOT the same thing. >>
JOM - Are you saying you look at coins from a market grading perspective? Although I define PQ from a technical view point, I like your idea of PQ being independant of grade.
<< <i>much has been spoken about the mint state grades What about in collector grades? I am sure coins exist in PQ in fine, very fine, etc. >>
Absolutely true. Irregardless of how you define PQ, even circulated coins show examples that are near misses and/or have superior eye appeal.
I thought I had stated that for a common coin like a MS65 morgan, the distribution would hold true until you ran into a grade where too few coins existed. That might be at the MS69 level for an 1880-s Morgan. There are no MS70 Morgans. But it is probably true that there are as many MS65.1 as MS64.9 Morgans, and as many MS66.1 to MS65.9 Morgans, etc. And for something as common as Morgans I'd bet that coming fresh out of the grading services on first time through, there were as many MS64.1's as there are MS64.9's.
Maybe I spoke too quick about 65.1's vs 65.9's. But for modern issues, that could certainly be true where the medium grade slabbed by the service is MS66-MS67 or higher.
roadrunner
In reality, given the crackout game, far less. Also assumes that you mean PCGS.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
I don't accept your premise so I won't answer the question. There is no consensus on what constitutes a PQ coin. PQ could just as easily be defined as any coin that will bring a premium to sight unseen money. Or it could be defined as a coin that is (at least arguably) undergraded.
In other words, "PQ" is meaningless.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
PQ is what that 1857 PF dime was. I know some large national dealers that often use the term. And for them it is meaningless since they are usually not correct. When used with dealers that you have good relationships with, it is usually fairly simple to agree on when a premium is warranted and when it's not (ie PQ).
roadrunner
<< <i>PQ to me is a coin that is close to the next higher. With that said, in your opinion how close must a coin be to the next grade to be considered PQ.
I don't accept your premise so I won't answer the question. There is no consensus on what constitutes a PQ coin. PQ could just as easily be defined as any coin that will bring a premium to sight unseen money. Or it could be defined as a coin that is (at least arguably) undergraded.
In other words, "PQ" is meaningless. >>
Bravo!
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Brian - First, a premium to what? Second, how do we get everyone else to start using your definition?
Edited to say that however we define PQ, the 1857 dime certainly qualified. Thanks again for that deal!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.