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what can i expect to get for my junk circ. silver?
mbbiker
Posts: 2,873 ✭
I'm going to a coin show tommorow to dump about $30 face of circ. frankies and roosies. What can i expect to get over face? I bought it all at somthing like 3.5x face and i think it's about time to go from 4 holes in my lincon collection to 3.
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I certainly would not sell for less, because there is no reason to. As a matter of fact, I typically "buy" at 10x-12x face,
but then again, I am in it for the "bigger" picture.
Lewis
<< <i>Typically you can get 10x face on E bay right now , which is about exactly what the silver content is worth at the moment.
I certainly would not sell for less, because there is no reason to. As a matter of fact, I typically "buy" at 10x-12x face,
but then again, I am in it for the "bigger" picture.
Lewis >>
It never fails. Absolutely never.
As soon as someone asks a serious question about the value of their melt silver coins, there will always be somebody who throws out misleading and unrealistic numbers.
People being people, they want to believe the higher figure and are invariably in for a disappointment when they learn the real value. I'll not judge you by your small post count, but by your words, such as your comments in another thread about triple digit silver, hop on the train, and so forth.
You aren't taking into account the smelting costs, shipping/insurance, e-Bay fees, etc. etc.
If you are paying 12X face you are being foolish when you can walk into any coin shop and take possesion of a bag or even much more for considerably less.
Most brick and mortar shops are holding more bags than they'd like right now and prices are reflecting that. Truth be told, the melt market is rather soft these days.
"Big money" can quickly become small money when you overpay by 15-20+%. I suspect you haven't seriously experienced the volitility of silver spot.
Some of us have been in this silver bullion game for a long time now. Wiith the proper study and the ability to hold when needed, you can buy and sell and repurchase, etc. and come out just fine as some of us have been doing for several years, but it's a market with a very thin margin. It's not a game for the faint of heart.
May I suggest you go ahead and offer mbbiker 12X right now and both of you will be happy. At current spot of $13.95, I'll sell you all the melt coins you can handle at 12X face.
Normally, I'd be embarassed to rip someone like that, I couldn't do it. But you did make the offer.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
if the price of silver is 14.00 per ounce a half dollar is worth $5.06
just multiply silver spot by .36169 for a Half dollar.
Kitco provides a nice narket quote.
when the market closed on Feb 16th 2007 at 13:30 (1:30 PM) New york time, silver spot was 13.95 making a silver half worth 5.05
Hope this helps.
AL
<< <i>Typically you can get 10x face on E bay right now , which is about exactly what the silver content is worth at the moment.
I certainly would not sell for less, because there is no reason to. As a matter of fact, I typically "buy" at 10x-12x face,
but then again, I am in it for the "bigger" picture.
Lewis >>
Wow this is an incredible offer.......how many pounds can you handle? 10x face is fine with me.......lol
Al
A nice link for silver values
Another link
The real problem with ebay is paying those prices and not counting in shipping. When I purchase there I tried to win multiple auctions or bid on auctions that had $100 face and low shipping fees.
<< <i>Really in Lewis defense if you go to a dealer and buy retail I'm sure they are charging 10 to 10.5 times face. For those that don't have coin shops and purchase them over on Ebay they are simply paying retail. All the shops are closed today and I haven't been buying since $10 so I'm not as up on prices as I once was but the 70% is a good estimate. In fact I haven't brought 90% silver since $68 a roll just some ASE's. >>
Yesterday in Houston, you could buy retail bags at 9.85 to 9.9X face. That's in bag quantities, half bags for regular customers. Smaller quantities would probably reflect a 10X retail cost.
What dealers are paying is obviously less. 9.2 to 9.4 was typical. The higher number being in the case of bag quantities or more. That's at current spot of $13.95.
The higher spot goes, the wider the margins will be.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Typically you can get 10x face on E bay right now , which is about exactly what the silver content is worth at the moment.
I certainly would not sell for less, because there is no reason to. As a matter of fact, I typically "buy" at 10x-12x face,
but then again, I am in it for the "bigger" picture.
Lewis >>
The only problem I see with this Lewis is that by your own admission, you are overpaying. I agree with you that it's selling for full price, about 9-10x face on ebay right now. That being said, why would you pay more than that for it? I won't get in on the silver rise/fall debate, but let's assume you believe silver will rise--I don't think overpaying to add to your position makes any sense, since 90% circulated bags are by no means scarce. You can buy all you want at 9.5x-10x from ebay or a bullion dealer. Paying more simply because it's a good investment isn't wise--you wouldn't do that with stocks, bonds, or anything else would you? Like if Microsoft was trading for $65 a share, you wouldn't pay $73 a share just because it was going to rise.
On the same token, I wouldn't sell it for less than 9.5x either, especially when you can get that and more on ebay. Bullion dealers won't pay as much, but you do get to avoid shipping and ebay fees and hassels if you find one in your town.
<< <i>Melt is a little under 10x face. You might expect to get around 9x, maybe slightly more, when selling and around 10x when buying -- slightly more silver dollars. >>
Thank you.
Yes, common circ silver dollars do contain approximately 5% more silver content per face value than 90% melt coins. Of course culls rarely qualify, as soon as somebody drills a hole in one or it's worn to a near slug, you've lost that 5% and then some.
No, you're not going to be the thread killer this time.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
5x face for the 40%
<< <i>I got 9.25x face for the 90% and...
5x face for the 40%
5X face for the 40% is a total rip on your part.
It's only worth 4.12X face for the silver content, that's not even figuring in smelting, etc. They normally take quite a hit on that end. You got one Hell of a deal there.
The 90% sounds about right.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
First, and most common, is the dealer, who desires to buy below actual value , and resell at actual value.
Nothing wrong with that . In other words, they would like to buy your silver at 8 face and resell at 9.5 face.
That'a a fair way to pull some low end profit . Nothing wrong with that. It's a heck of a small profit, but that is the
way most people think . Then , there are the long term investors . People like me, who plan on holding silver
10 - 20 years . For investors like me, it makes no difference at all if I buy at 10x or 12x face right now.
It's all "low buy in" as long as silver stays cheap like it is now. I am not a dealer, I do not have some inside
source to buy silver at sub 10 x face . I will say that every dealer around here is selling common date, mid grade 90%
(I don't use the term "junk silver")at about 12x -14x face, give or take.
I am more than happy to buy at 10 x face on e-bay (that includes shipping , I am not stupid)! Especially halves and dollars . I just bought another thousand dollars worth
of silver last week , and yes I paid 10x face. A year or two ago, you could have bought lower, but not now.
Not from what I have seen . Two more points of interest to make. Everybody always says, when the price of silver spikes up
, sell , then ,when it dips back down a bit, buy some more. That makes sense, BUT, you are always counting on it dipping back down
low enough to buy again. It won't always happen. When silver went from $ 4 to $ 7 , you never saw $ 4 silver again, when it moved from
$ 7 to $ 10 , you never saw $ 7 again, when she jumped from $ 10 - $ 12, $ 10 oz silver is gone forever. You will never see sub $ 10 oz silver again. Period. Then she moves to $ 14. $ 12 oz silver is gone forever . When she moves to $ 18 oz, what do you think is going to happen ? Only a fool would think silver will not go to 18oz and beyond. It may happen this summer, or perhapes 2 years down the road, but it WILL
happen . Remember this, I AM A LONG TERM SILVER INVESTOR . I am looking at a 10-20 year Big picture, not the small term, small profit
picture most of you are seeing. And my final point is this. People are always talking about the price of melting the coins.
WHY melt at all. You know exactly what it is , it's 90 % silver . Trade it as such. OK, you may need a calculator and a scale, a chart or what ever, but hey . It's 90 % precious metal, store house of wealth . It's not hard to figure it's value, and you do not need to melt it .
WHY trade it for green pieces of papper that are backed by nothing at all . The paper dollar has 4 cents buying power as compared
to what it had 100 years ago. Silver, however WILL go up . And yes, if anyone wants to PM me , assuming I can figure out how to
check PM (I just signed up and have never used it)I will buy silver dollars at 10x face (no culls please). Silver is THE best investment a person could make
right now. Of course that is just my opinion. I hope I did not offend or insult anyone on this board (I have been reading this board every day
for over 2 years )
Lewis
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continue to rise over the years , so YES, I am buying silver dollars tonight
at 10x face . I do not want any culls , just typical VG-XF common date Morgans and Peace.
Lewis
<< <i>OK, in my own defense, let me clarify a few points. First off ,there are two kinds of silver buyers.
First, and most common, is the dealer, who desires to buy below actual value , and resell at actual value.
Nothing wrong with that . In other words, they would like to buy your silver at 8 face and resell at 9.5 face.
That'a a fair way to pull some low end profit . Nothing wrong with that. It's a heck of a small profit, but that is the
way most people think . Then , there are the long term investors . People like me, who plan on holding silver
10 - 20 years . For investors like me, it makes no difference at all if I buy at 10x or 12x face right now.
It's all "low buy in" as long as silver stays cheap like it is now. I am not a dealer, I do not have some inside
source to buy silver at sub 10 x face . I will say that every dealer around here is selling common date, mid grade 90%
(I don't use the term "junk silver")at about 12x -14x face, give or take.
I am more than happy to buy at 10 x face on e-bay (that includes shipping , I am not stupid)! Especially halves and dollars . I just bought another thousand dollars worth
of silver last week , and yes I paid 10x face. A year or two ago, you could have bought lower, but not now.
Not from what I have seen . Two more points of interest to make. Everybody always says, when the price of silver spikes up
, sell , then ,when it dips back down a bit, buy some more. That makes sense, BUT, you are always counting on it dipping back down
low enough to buy again. It won't always happen. When silver went from $ 4 to $ 7 , you never saw $ 4 silver again, when it moved from
$ 7 to $ 10 , you never saw $ 7 again, when she jumped from $ 10 - $ 12, $ 10 oz silver is gone forever. You will never see sub $ 10 oz silver again. Period. Then she moves to $ 14. $ 12 oz silver is gone forever . When she moves to $ 18 oz, what do you think is going to happen ? Only a fool would think silver will not go to 18oz and beyond. It may happen this summer, or perhapes 2 years down the road, but it WILL
happen . Remember this, I AM A LONG TERM SILVER INVESTOR . I am looking at a 10-20 year Big picture, not the small term, small profit
picture most of you are seeing. And my final point is this. People are always talking about the price of melting the coins.
WHY melt at all. You know exactly what it is , it's 90 % silver . Trade it as such. OK, you may need a calculator and a scale, a chart or what ever, but hey . It's 90 % precious metal, store house of wealth . It's not hard to figure it's value, and you do not need to melt it .
WHY trade it for green pieces of papper that are backed by nothing at all . The paper dollar has 4 cents buying power as compared
to what it had 100 years ago. Silver, however WILL go up . And yes, if anyone wants to PM me , assuming I can figure out how to
check PM (I just signed up and have never used it)I will buy silver dollars at 10x face (no culls please). Silver is THE best investment a person could make
right now. Of course that is just my opinion. I hope I did not offend or insult anyone on this board (I have been reading this board every day
for over 2 years )
Lewis >>
Lewis, I see your points, but I think you're making a huge mistake using the term "never" when describing price points you believe are long gone. Don't forget that silver was $50 an ounce 26 years ago, and the same posts (well, they were articles at the time) were written as it skyrocketed, about how $10 silver is gone forever, $15 is gone forever, etc. But it wasn't gone forever. And people who bought in at $50 aren't ever going to make their money back, not even if silver hits the triple digits, because you have to account for inflation and the money lost to alternative investments.
I also think it's an investing mistake to say that it doesn't matter at what price you add to your position if the price is going up. It does matter if you pay $10 per common morgan versus $12. It matters even if the price of silver is $100 an ounce, and it matters because you can add significantly more silver to your position at $10 than you can at $12, especially if you're buying in quantity.
The last point I wanted to make is regarding this bull run, which is nothing more than that, a bullish silver market. We're not seeing much daily fluctuation or dips and spikes right now, but that doesn't mean that those are "gone forever". The truth is, commodities are meant more for trading than holding forever. You'll never realize any profit if you never sell a single ounce of the silver you've purchased, so matter how cheap you bought it and no matter how high it is today. Profits are only realized when you convert your holdings back into cash. And while nobody can time the market perfectly, with a little research you can definately learn the finer art of buying on the dips, selling on the spikes, and adding to your overall position for free!
Buy 100 ounces at $4.00=$400 spent, sell 100 ounces at $7.00=$700 gross, $300 net. That $700 can then be used to buy back at $6.00 an ounce and instead of 100 ounces you'll have 117 ounces. And if you do this a few times every year, or just once a year, over time you will have increased your silver holdings exponentially, without spending one additional red cent above your starting investment. Contrast that with just buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, no matter what the price.
I prefer to just buy . Yes, the Hunt bros did take silver to 49 oz, and yes
they lost all there money as they were not smart investors, believe it or not.
They started out great, but then resorted to buying on margin, and buying in too high .
Very dangerous strategy. That was just one wealthy, Texas big oil, family playing around with silver,
and they single handedly spooked the world into 49 oz (It would have to go to about 200 oz in today's dollars
to equal that run). But keep in mind. There is ALOT LESS silver in the world now than there was in 1979-1980.
And, also keep in mind, market manipulation is why silver is stuck where it's at now.
Ever notice it would be $ 13.35 in the morning, then $ 13.90 in the afternoon for example.
Several players are buying in millions of ounces at $ 13.35 , which causes the price to spike up to
$ 13.90 , then they sell , which then drops the price back down, so the next morning, they are back
buying in a $ 13.28 by the millions, running it up to $ 13.79 then selling by the millions .
It's actually market manipulation , and it is the key reason silver has been like a yo yo over the last year.
Lewis
produce me some non-cull dollars at 10x face , since everyone laughed at me for saying I pay that much.
Lewis
it to 11 x face . Anybody want to dump off some non-cull Morgans
and Peace @ 11x face ? Tonight only. Coins must be in the VG-XF range.
Lewis
Sunday night on this, the biggest, most powerful coin forum on the net. Fair enough, I guess
most people have already gone to bed. I am refered to as a fool for saying I pay above 10x
face, but yet no one is willing to sell their Morgans/Peace at this price (or at least on prime time Sunday night)
Boy, I sure do sound like an A$$ ,don't I ?
I do not mean to sound so agressive or rude, and to all members of this board I do appologize,
however ,I just do not like being made fun of based on the fact that I said I am willing to pay
full value for silver. Dealers may be able to buy in at a lower level, but the common person does not have that option.
Lewis
<< <i>OK, so we have established there are no willing sellers of Dollars at 11x face on this particular
Sunday night on this, the biggest, most powerful coin forum on the net. Fair enough, I guess
most people have already gone to bed. I am refered to as a fool for saying I pay above 10x
face, but yet no one is willing to sell their Morgans/Peace at this price (or at least on prime time Sunday night)
Boy, I sure do sound like an A$$ ,don't I ? I was hoping Mr. Deadhorse would ride back into this thread, since it is to him I most want to
send payment to when the Post office opens up on Tuesday.
Lewis >>
I don't think $10 morgans is bad deal. I wouldn't sell any of my morgans for less than $13. However, I don't see too many 90% bags of morgans being traded for spot price--most of those 90% bags are roosevelts and quarters. Halves and dollars always carried a premium, if not simply because they circulated less and contained more silver as a result. I think the cull versions of those coins have more collector interest, too. Same with standing liberties. Some will only pay melt for them, but there's a growing market for these in poor condition who want them as keepsakes.
Perhapes part of the confusion is that I only buy halves and dollars, I usually don't fool with the quarters and dimes.
I just dont see the bigger coins ANYWHERE for less than 10x face .
I guess the original point I was trying to make is this...If Selling your silver to a dealer,
just know up front they will be offereng only about 80% -85 % of the actual value.
The actual silver value is higher than their offer . At about $ 13.82 oz it becomes 10x face . We are currently at $ 13.95 at the moment.
They have to buy in low enough to turn around and re-sell it and make a couple dollars.
Nothing wrong with that at all. However, you don't have to sell to a dealer. You can sell
to a hoarder / collector who does not mind paying full value, because they WANT the silver.
They want to hold it, look at it, enjoy it, and perhapes one day , cash it in , years down the road.
If selling your used car to a dealer, he will offer alot less than selling to an individual through a newspaper ad.
That person will buy your car because they want it, not because they are planning to re-sell for profit.
Believe it or not, there are a few of us out there who actually want your silver. Not to turn a quick buck on,
but to hold it . And we pay closer to full value than dealers.
By paying 10x right now, Iam paying the actual silver value , I am not trying to "short-change"
anybody with an 85% offer. And I am OK paying this, because I know, 10 years from now I will still have my silver,
and silver will be a good bit more per ounce than it is right now. That's the point I was trying to make.
And yes, I know the (PAPER) dollar will be worth alot less a few years down the road as well, but,
that's kind of the point in holding the precious metal now isn't it ?
Lewis
Your enthusiasm is great. Your thinking is somewhat questionable.
With all due respect;
You have the Hunt brothers story wrong, and that's just for starters.
Spot is cyclical in a calendar sense. Over the years now, I can fairly well predict rises and falls. The actual spot price doesn't matter, it's the percentages that rise and fall in similar fashion.
Your offer on silver dollars is absurd. Your conclusion is based on that faulty thinking as well. Morgans and Peace dollars have long held a premium well above their silver value. They were selling at $11 each in quantity several years ago with spot at a considerably lower price.
Long term investor? So am I, have been for 7 years now. We aren't talking about 10 years in the future, not anything remotely like 20 years either. By that time we may, and probably will, have created substitutes for the bulk of silver use. Silver has value due to it's elemental properties that are moving it away from a precious metal/money and more into a needed technical and medical commodity.
Yes, it's true there is far less silver today than there was in 1980. That was an artificial bubble. I suggest you find a copy of "Greed", it's out of print, but Amazon sellers have it used on a regular basis. Read that and learn the true story of the Hunt brothers and the end result and crash. They didn't "spook" anybody, nor did they do the things you suggest regarding margins. BTW, they had a Saudi investor there with a great deal of the $$ that were in play. Anyone who uses that time frame as a benchmark for the future is fooling themselves. It's also true that there is 8 times as much refined gold on the planet today as there is silver. Logic should make silver much more valuable, but it's not and I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you waiting for that to happen. Silver has NOT been a good investment until the last 5-6 years and it will remain such for another 3-4 years, perhaps as much as 6 or 7, though I doubt it. After that, find a bettter area of growth for your money.
One more thing, 90% melt coins is not the best way to put silver away, as spot rises the margins on melt will widen. As a holder of melt coins, you lose in that process. You seem to completely overlook smelting and several other associated costs as well. If you want to invest in silver, put it into .999 fine Englehards or J&M bars. Now that's real silver.
Basestealer has is right as to how to add to your hoard at the least out of pocket cost.
Yes, I will be happy to sell you 90% melt coins at 12X face at current spot, how many bags do you want? 10? 50? 200?
Silver dollars are an entirely different play that you just added to the equation. You're not going to find them at the prices you talk about. Apples and oranges, buddy.
Please feel free to PM me. I can arrange to bury your house in 90% coins if you can afford it. One more thing, we don't use the Post Office to transfer funds, we deal in bank wires. This is a volitile market and speed is of the essence.
At this point in time I suggest you study. There aren't several players buying in the millions of ounces daily and a 65 cent rise or drop is not a typical day by any means. After all, there is only a bit more than 500 million ounces on the planet. Are you confusing paper silver with real silver? It's the paper sellers that have artificially held prices down for so long, but that dam is about to burst. Still, triple digit silver? We should be so lucky. I deal in this everyday and I have a good idea where we are going. I've been on mark for several years now. I could make a case for $17.50 silver mid-year and we may see a few shots at the $20 range towards the close of the year. That's my high-end optimistic outlook.
I like your enthusiasm, people like you who take possesion and hold it just help the price to rise and I welcome all to do just that.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
"After all, there is only a bit more than 500 million ounces on the planet. Are you confusing paper silver with real silver? It's the paper sellers that have artificially held prices down for so long, but that dam is about to burst. "
BINGO! Now you are starting to understand my point , weather You realize it or not.
There is NOT enough physical silver above ground to fulfill all the "paper" commitments.
The market IS being held down right now by manipulation , and in more ways than one.
Yes, it is a bit complicated , but That point is not even up for debate.
As far as the Hunts , by starting out buying physical , that was the right thing to do .
Buying on margin , big mistake. Buying in above $ 20 ounce, another big mistake.
They got too greedy. They could have, and would have made a nice fortune, but when
they had to cover multi million dollar margins every day due to minor fluctuations in
the market, they could not do it . Or at least that what I gathered from the research
I did on the subject. Maybe they were wrong. If so, please enlighten me .
I know this was an inflated time for silver, due to the Hunts and the fact that everybody else wanted in on the
silver "bandwagon" and has zero meaning when studying the path of silver over the last 200 years .
In summary, it means people are basically stupid. They like to follow, and often try to buy in to an investment waaay to late
in the game. Anybody who bough silver at above $ 20 in 1979 1980 was not very smart .
A market can not go that high, that fast without serious consequences .
And why is everybody so dead set on melting down 90% . Most of it never actually gets melted down anyway,
does it ? just traded around from dealer to dealer, as a comodity, which is exactly what it is. You know it is 90%
silver. HOW HARD IS THAT TO UNDERSTAND. Unless we are actually going to use it in industry , leave it alone.
Trade it , sell it , as 90% . They sell calculators at every Wallmart if needed.
Seriously, what is the hangup about melting it . Stop it, and forget about the "melt" price .
Sure it cost money to re-fine it , but there is no reason to . Are you melting your .999 eagles ?
If not , why not ? Cant use that Eagle in the medical industry the way it is now.
Forget the industrial uses, let those guys get their own silver. We hold our silver because it is
of value, and 90% is good enough for me. Of course I have lots of .999 also , but there is a certain charm
in holding the old stuff.
Lewis
Deadhorse sez...
"Yes, I will be happy to sell you 90% melt coins at 12X face at current spot, how many bags do you want? 10? 50? 200?"
OK, you got me there, I admit . I cannot afford to buy 200 $1,000 bags @ 12 face
What is that , 2.4 million ?
OK, you win that battle of egos.
Lewis
He is more of a dealer, melt price, volitile market kind of guy. I am , on the other hand, more of a
buy it, hold it , common sense says it will increase in value over time , kind of guy.
Whos strategy will work best ? Ask me in ten years.
Greg
I'm starting to understand your point?? No, no I'm not. Please, let me disabuse you of that notion.
Melt Silver Eagles? That's one of the worst silver plays you can make in the first place and what's the advantage of melting .999 refined? BTW, yes, in that form it certainly can be used in the medical industry as well as high tech.
Yes, bags are melted. You really do have a learning curve in front of you. I know of over 200 bags that were melted in December alone and that was just one batch from one of the larger bullion dealers in Houston.
Forget industrial uses? Why not say forget value then, because that's where it's coming from and it's that need that is driving up the prices. Let those guys get their own silver you say? My jaw is on the desk at this point.
You don't deal with dimes and quarters? I thought 90% silver was 90% silver? There is no premium for halves, hasn't been since Walkers held a minor one around 5X face. That's long gone. Mercs and Roosies have been mixed together now for years as the Mercs have had no premium since around 4X face.
Here's a big clue, we ARE using it in industry. Not just us, but all over the world now. Not much of it is coming out of the ground either, it's nearly all coming from the smelting of existing silver. 90% coinage is the primary source along with sterling and a few other items. I just picked up over 5,000 silver collector spoons, hard to find them in such quantity anymore and I can assure you, those are going to be melted. BTW, huge amounts of 90% coins were melted in '79-'80 and they are indeed being melted today in large quantities. Where do you think the US Mint gets the silver needed to produce those overpriced Silver Eagles. They are primarily composed of previous US coinage. Surprise!
I'm not even going to try and explain the Hunt brothers to you at this hour. You seem to have your mind made up and the facts be damned. They made a very wise play, they were about to own Wall Street till our sleazy politicians came in and changed the laws to save their contributors, er, buddies. The fact is the Congress changed the laws to save their pals. The Hunt brothers did nothing wrong except threaten to change the balance of financial power and backrupt the politicians big money contributors in the process.
My offer to sell you all the 90% you want at 12X face stands. All I have to say to you at this point is study. Due diligence is a part of the tuition in this business and it seems as if you've skipped that part. Still, PM me if you can figure out how to turn that feature on. I can send you all you could possibly handle.
Thanks for the tip on calculators at Wal-Mart, I had no idea.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Deadhorse sez...
"Yes, I will be happy to sell you 90% melt coins at 12X face at current spot, how many bags do you want? 10? 50? 200?"
OK, you got me there, I admit . I cannot afford to buy 200 $1,000 bags @ 12 face
What is that , 2.4 million ?
OK, you win that battle of egos.
Lewis
I guess to sum it all up , me and Deadhorse just have 2 different ways of looking at this subject.
He is more of a dealer, melt price, volitile market kind of guy. I am , on the other hand, more of a
buy it, hold it , common sense says it will increase in value over time , kind of guy.
Whos strategy will work best ? Ask me in ten years.
Greg >>
Is it Lewis or Greg?
It's not about egos. Sorry you took it that way. If you want to buy at 12X face, I'll be happy to send you any amount you'd like.
Actually, you are mistaken, I hold it as well, but I do trade and sell in order to increase the hoard.
I am not a dealer at all, my goal is to hold, but I know it won't be 10 years from now to sell and take profit. This bull commodity isn't going to run that long. Try and think along the lines of 3 years, give or take 6 months. That's when I see the peak, though my studies indicate that I may need to allow for perhaps 5 years at the outside.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Somehow, I am not suprised.
"Melt Silver Eagles? That's one of the worst silver plays you can make in the first place and what's the advantage of melting .999 refined? BTW, yes, in that form it certainly can be used in the medical industry as well as high tech. "
The comment was meant as sarcasm . However, since you missed the point, and put a new twist on it, how can you use an Eagle in it's current state in the medical industry without first melting it down ?
"Yes, bags are melted. You really do have a learning curve in front of you. I know of over 200 bags that were melted in December alone "
Well, if that is the case, common date junk silver won't be so common after a while.
"Forget industrial uses? Why not say forget value then, because that's where it's coming from and it's that need that is driving up the prices. Let those guys get their own silver you say? My jaw is on the desk at this point. "
Man, you mean the historical silver to gold ratio being so far out of whack has no bearing on the fact that silver will increase?
You mean it's ONLY driven by industrial uses? And when I say, let the industries get their own, I am reffereing to the fact that
they don't have to melt down old coins . They could get their silver straight from mines. Oh, but wait , the mines cannot
produce enough to keep up with industrial needs. Hmm, sounds like a supply/demand issue to me .
And that MR Deadhorse, drives prices as well.
"Here's a big clue, we ARE using it in industry. Not just us, but all over the world now. Not much of it is coming out of the ground either, it's nearly all coming from the smelting of existing silver. 90% coinage is the primary source along with sterling and a few other items"
That's EXACTLY my point! See, you DO get it. We are on the same page, you just don't want to admit it for some reason.
We are consuming far greater amounts of silver than we are mining annualy, and have been for years.
I am sure you are aware of this, because you just said the exact same thing.
And it goes back to supply and demand again.
"I'm not even going to try and explain the Hunt brothers to you at this hour. "
Yea, I figured as much.
"They made a very wise play, they were about to own Wall Street..."
Yes, trying to corner an entire market is a good business move (another example of sarcasm)
The gov. had to step in , because soon the Hunts (with their majic carpet riding arab buddies)
would have had more financial power than the U.S. gov. (Because silver is/was a powerful precious metal).
Trading rules were changed, the deck got stacked aginst the Hunts.andcovering those margins everyday kind of messed them up.
When you deal with that much $$$ on margin ,you can get screwed up real quick.
" till our sleazy politicians came in and changed the laws "
Yes, I will give you that. The rules to the game were changed
in an effort to stop the Hunts cold. Everybody knows that.
"The Hunt brothers did nothing wrong except threaten to change the balance of financial power"
Well, I guess good ol' Uncle felt that a threatning financial power, was kind of a big deal.
Just think how much less silver is above ground right now than 1980.
In other words, how much more fragile that balance of power is.
And you still think, after all You have said(most of which is the same thing I am saying)
that the price of silver is only going to move another 4 or 6 dollars an ounce , then top out ?!
I am not trying to make enemies here , I am just, as you can tell, very pro silver.
It's one of my hobbies.
Personally, and you may think I am crazy, I can see $ 20 by end of summer ,
and $ 100 by 2010.
Time will tell,
Lewis
ounces , most of which was on paper. That represented approx 50% of of the worlds deliverable,
above ground silver supply. Some considered that a "monopoly" and that is why the gov. went in and
changed the rules. Right or wrong, that is what they did. The Gov. could not allow private individuals
to hold that much financial power. Comex changed some rules, most importantly, raising margin requirements.
The highly leveraged Hunt Borthers were unable to meet their margin calls, and were forced to sell.
I admit, I may have some of the Hunt facts wrong, but it has been a few years since I
did any significant research on them .
Pretty much a case of greed out of control. I mean , damn, how much money do you need ?
And bringing those arabs into it, big mistake . Those jokers have plenty of our money already .
What the Hunts "Should" have done , buy in ,begining at $ 1.75 ounce, which they did, take
physical possession of all silver , which they did at first, buy , buy , buy , run it up to about
$ 20 ounce , boom, sell , bail out. Steve Miller put it best "Go on, take the money and run" .
Why try and corner the entire silver market ? Did they not realize that would
raise eyebrows in Washington?
And just think, all this big fiasco started with a simple question about $ 30 face silver.
If the man had been standing in front of me, I would have handed him $ 300 and we would BOTH
be happy. And THAT is the bottom line.
Lewis
But my opinion is, if you're trying to make a commodity investment, your goal should be to add as much silver to your position as possible on the dollar. And the best way to do that is to avoid minting premiums, label premiums, assayer premiums, numismatic premiums, etc. Silver eagles? They call them bullion but clearly they are collectible and sell for more than spot, and the mint sells them at a premium above spot, because it costs quite a bit to stamp out 1 ounce coins. You'd do better to purchase 100 and 1000 ounce bars. And I've even seen people on eBay with the old englehard bars calling them rare collectibles or and even assigning grades to them, lol. But if you walk into a bullion dealer's shop, you can get these for a small premium over spot or even at spot, depending on where you go. And that's the best way to buy silver if you actually want to possess it.
And like I said, you can add to your position for free if you take advantage of opportunities. You can buy on dips and sell on spikes, or you can become a dealer type and buy and sell on your own spread.
I think you've bought into some fallacies here with the Hunt Brothers conspiracy and the gold-to-silver ratio. The gold to silver ratio is meaningless, and especially when people tout what it was during the many decades in which our government fixed the ratio. That was always a sham and just an arbitrary figure to assign values to currency. But now that we have the fiat dollar, none of that matters anymore. There's really no correlation between the price of gold and the price of silver because they are two different entities. It would be like finding the ratio between candy bars and copper back in 1917 and expecting it to be the same today. Or televisions and magazines in 1975. The ratios change because times change, technology changes, prices of raw materials rise and fall, and like I said there's no sound basis for any ratio remaining the same for two independant variables. We never really know what the future holds--any weird thing could happen to upset the value of gold or silver. A meteror could crash into earth or we could find a way to mine one, and then gold is worthless? Or industry might move away from silver and lessen the demand, or maybe the demand will increase exponentially--who knows what 100 years of advancement will due to the market. But going back to Egyptian times to find a basis for a valuation today is a mistake--many things were priceless 5000 years ago that have little value today, and vice versa.
buying bars of silver because I have heard stories of lead bars silver coated,
and counterfiet "trustworthy" bars . It has always concerned me if I drop
$$ on a 100 oz for example, and it turns out to be a silver coated brick.
Maybe I am just paronoid, but I can see that happening , especialy as silver
rises in price . With old coins , I feel much better. If I have 1,000 walkers for example,
I know exactly what I have , which is 1,000 ,90% walkers. Plus , to be honest,
I would much rather look at 1,000 walkers, than some bars, but that's just me .
I just love the old 90 % stuff. Most of what I have I bought in at around 6 x face .
However, the more research I did on silver, the more I became aware that it is
most likely going to explode , and in the not too distant future. That's just my
personal belief. So, as silver has risen over the last few months, I have continued to buy.
We are, however, very close to what I would call my personal "buy in limit"
The most I am willing to pay is around 12.5x face . In other words, if silver goes to
$ 20 ounce, which it will, I won't be buying at that level, I will have already bought all
I am going to , even though I feel it will go far beyond $ 20 , I WILL NOT pay more than
13x face , period.
Just one more quick story, a few weeks ago, I bought a bunch of Barber halves at $ 6 each ,
(12x face, but hey, they're Barbers) all G-VF and in the lot was a 1897 -S .
You just can't get that kind of excitement from buying silver bars .
Lewis
I do agree with much of your reasoning , Lewis. Silver took it's beating long enough.
It still has medicinal value, too.
the 9.5 figure is pretty close to DEALERS offers.
Anything higher is usually paid by speculators. It's all good.
Joe
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
TD
<< <i>Basestealer , once again, good points . To be honest, I have always worried about
buying bars of silver because I have heard stories of lead bars silver coated,
and counterfiet "trustworthy" bars . It has always concerned me if I drop
$$ on a 100 oz for example, and it turns out to be a silver coated brick.
Maybe I am just paronoid, but I can see that happening
Lewis >>
Lewis, Greg, whatever. You've got your methods, others have theirs.
Yes, you are paranoid and your statements are full of holes and pitfalls. Fake 100 oz bars? Rarer than counterfeit coins. I've seen one in over thousands of 100 ounce bars and it was as obvious as a weed in a rose garden. Do you know what a scale is?
Your melt will continue to decline as the spread increases with spot price increases. If you have the time to look at all your Walkers, then I gather you don't have that many to start with. Nothing wrong with having a few bags of melt, I have several myself and access to as many as I want. There is a lot wrong with putting all your eggs into that one basket.
You keep adding new factors to your story. First it's melt at 12X, then it's silver dollars and now it's numismatic items that happen to be 90% coins. Sure, I'd pay 12X for coins with a numnismatic value well above their melt value. What a concept! That isn't the sort of thing you find in melt bags. They've been searched over many times, bet on it.
Your story just keeps changing as you throw up one defense after another.
I can only gather that you are fairly young and I can only suggest you study. You have a lot to learn yet.
Your enthusiasm is only overpowered by your self assurance that you already know it all.
Maybe you should just write a book and make your money there as you are missing a few obvious rules in the silver market.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
You have only seen ONE fake bar , ever ?!
And you have been in the silver game how long ??
And as far as a scale, what's to keep 95% of another metal from being plated with 5 oz of silver, as long as the physical
size , dimensions and weight are equal. You have to drill into it to inspect it, however Most dealers will not let you drill into their inventory.
"If you have the time to look at all your Walkers, then I gather you don't have that many to start with. Nothing wrong with having a few bags of melt, I have several myself and access to as many as I want. There is a lot wrong with putting all your eggs into that one basket."
I didn't say I look at each and everyone of them individually , and when did I say all my eggs are in one basket.
Damn, Darkhorse, you certainly to like to assume alot of things.
I buy coins because I enjoy them. Yes, most of what I buy is above what most people call "junk" .
I don't buy real low grade, I don't buy anything with rim damage , I don't buy culls ,etc. I do have my standards.
"Your story just keeps changing as you throw up one defense after another. "
No, Mr Darkhorse, my story does not keep changing .
The fact is , you never knew my story to begin with when you made the remark that it was
foolish to buy silver above 9.5 . It might be foolish for YOU, but I know what i AM DOING .
I made the personal comment, that I often buy common silver at 10x - 12x face .
That's all I said, then YOU made a personal attack on me by stating it was foolish to pay that.
Well, guess what, that's what I pay . If you pay less then good for you .
"You keep adding new factors to your story. First it's melt at 12X, then it's silver dollars and now it's numismatic items that happen to be 90% coins. Sure, I'd pay 12X for coins with a numnismatic value well above their melt value. What a concept! That isn't the sort of thing you find in melt bags. They've been searched over many times, bet on it. "
Well, that 97-s Barber came straight from one of the biggest silver bullion dealers around here.
He has been in the coin/silver business for almost 50 years. He simply overlooked it . I guess he
got in too big of a hurry when he inspected some of his incomming junk silver.
"I can only gather that you are fairly young and I can only suggest you study. You have a lot to learn yet."
Well, I don't know. I am fairly young compared to the average collector I guess.
Please keep in mind, this is the coin collecting board, not the silver speculators board .
Some of us actually enjoy the coins.
And keep in mind, your outlook of buying silver at below value is NOT the only game in town,
so do not try and push it on everyone . Just because that's the level YOU like to pay ,
doesn't mean other serious buyers won't pay a little more. I already explained to you,
I am not looking to turn mine short term for a little profit. I can actually feel comfortable
buying in at actual silver value .
Are you still confused Mr Darkhorse ?
Man, I feel like I am talking to a brick wall here.
Bottom line, do not pull a personal attack on me unless you first know me and know where I am coming from.
Lewis
Let's say you have a 2000 Dodge Intrepid to sell , and you ask
on a Dodge forum, what can I expect to get for my Intrepid.
A guy jumps in and says , well blue book is $ 3000, I will be willing
to give $ 3,000 , because I want the car.
Then some dealer jumps in and says, "It never fails, everytime some.bla bla bla...."
It's foolish to pay above $ 1,800 for that car .
Well, that's below actual value, because the dealer is looking to resell the car asap
and needs to make a little profit.
The other guy is willing to pay right at fair market .
Both offers are legit.
In other words, a low-ball dealer offer is not the only deal in town .
(By the way, I just made up those numbers, I don't know what the blue book value is
for that particular model , just making an example)
Lewis
steve