What modern will be the next 1973 brown box Ike?
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
The 1973 brown box Ike's were highly promoted and ran up over $100 by 1974/75.
Today they trade for $10 to $25 depending on how nice and what venue they are bought at.
Which of today's moderns will suffer a similar fate? Let's limit it to 1999 and later coins, because prior issues already probably have had more time in the sun than the old Ike's.
I did a brief search for the issue price but did not find it. My foggy memory wants to say it was $8 to $10 for the 40% Ike's.
Modern collectors have a good insight into recent issues and many know more about the market for them than 95% of coin show dealers. Bashers will say "all of them," spare me those kind of answers. I'm looking for thoughtful analysis and reasoning, or anecdotal real life stories, not pointless bashing.
/edit typos
Today they trade for $10 to $25 depending on how nice and what venue they are bought at.
Which of today's moderns will suffer a similar fate? Let's limit it to 1999 and later coins, because prior issues already probably have had more time in the sun than the old Ike's.
I did a brief search for the issue price but did not find it. My foggy memory wants to say it was $8 to $10 for the 40% Ike's.
Modern collectors have a good insight into recent issues and many know more about the market for them than 95% of coin show dealers. Bashers will say "all of them," spare me those kind of answers. I'm looking for thoughtful analysis and reasoning, or anecdotal real life stories, not pointless bashing.
/edit typos
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Comments
They come out, get hyped, go up, then come back down.
I think the 20th Annv RP and MS coins are safe (mintage vs collector number) but some of the recent commems really have me shaking my head.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i> Some of the recent commems. >>
Which commems ran up that much and are going to trade for 20% of their peak value 30 years from now? The Buffalo dollars? That is one of the few modern commems that ran up more than 100%, double issue price.
I could see scenarios where all the common modern commems trade near silver melt value. If the economy turns real bad, it might be a low, low value, if silver goes to $50 or more, a lot of the moderns stuck near issue price will trade at melt value. It already is happening with the common gold commems.
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
<< <i> The 2006 Franklin commems already did it. >>
I know they ran up a bit, but 20% or less of peak value? Did they go to $200? Maybe one person paid that much, but I can't believe that many traded that high in mint packaging.
two that come to mind are intersting, both common knowledge among the local veteran dealers. it seems that when those 1973 Brown Box Ikes got up to $100 there were scammers who would open the cases and replace the Silver Proofs with the less valuable Clad issue. the dealers had to really be careful and i'd imagine there are still Clads masquerading as Silver out there. the second, also well known among the local dealer, concerns the 1999 Silver Proof Sets which didn't have any limit. one enterprising individual evidentally bought a whopping 500 Sets at issue price and has been slowly dumping them as the price has crept up. i was helping the local guy at a show about two years ago when the dealers all started talking about him being at the show. my pal bought a few as did several of the other guys. i think it was when the price was around $250, so that guy playing a hunch was pretty smart.
Do they count in this thead?
I'm not sure how much of the run-up in the '73 proof Ikes was the result
of promotion and how much was simple supply and demand. There is a
tendency for new mint products to not be very available on the secondary
market for a period of one to three years and this tendency was much
stronger in those days. It seemed to me that a lot of people had simply
missed the chance to buy these or were angry at the mint for the hand-
ling of '73 mint and proof sets. This was also the first year of the avail-
ability of the clad proof Ike and many people considered this far more de-
sirable since it was more like the circulation coin. These forces combined
to make sales poor and the increased price caused by continued demand
in the face of little available supply brought attention to the situation and
even greater demand.
Eventually the available supply swamped the real demand and speculators
departed in droves.
In those days modern collectors were almost universally unfamiliar with
significant varieties, paid little attention to quality, and were simply unfam-
iliar with the concept that a modern might be scarce and in high demand.
It caught a lot of people off gaurd. It's entirely possible that there were
dealers manipulating this but I was unaware of such activity. It would have
been easily overlooked in those days however. Previous to this all the big
premiums for moderns had been on much more common mint and proof sets
and only the '70 mint set still had much of a premium.
When did the price of Ikes decline - after the end of the series?
<< <i>I vote for the 1999 Silver Proof sets and state quarter products in general. In 2008 everyone who hoarded these to make money will start to unload their supply.
When did the price of Ikes decline - after the end of the series? >>
The mint state Ikes have never really had a price decline.
It was primarily just this one coin that dropped over a couple year period around 1976.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
<< <i>2007 GW dollars in mint wrapping. >>
<< <i>2007 GW dollars in mint wrapping. >>
Really? Anyone know how much the mint wrapped rolls of the 1st state quarter is right now? I wasn't collecting then, so I don't have any or know.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>
<< <i>2007 GW dollars in mint wrapping. >>
Really? Anyone know how much the mint wrapped rolls of the 1st state quarter is right now? I wasn't collecting then, so I don't have any or know. >>
The gotta be a premium..just like the unopened boxes of 20th Aniversary Sets..!!
edit..unopened rolls.......
TD
<< <i>It was primarily just this one coin that dropped over a couple year period around 1976. >>
The proof Ike's have also suffered. One collector reported 50% price declines on average for proof Ikes (excluding varieties). Again, in my opinion all the newer coins from the U.S. Mint have pushed Ike's to the backwater. Top pop mint state Ikes are still strong, however, there are only a very few coins in that category. Those few folks and dealers have done okay, while most everyone else in Ike's has lost their shirt. It was not one coin.
At the moment the 1999 silver proof set is getting the most votes for overpriced, overhyped, overpromoted.
<< <i>
<< <i>2007 GW dollars in mint wrapping. >>
Not if it follows the same trajectory, just remember to get out at the top around $350 a roll!
2001 Proof Sets at $80-90 (thus the 2001-S Sac)
Extra Leaf Quarters
Speared Bison Nickels
The US Mint will look like the Franklin Mint in terms of credible product. SAEs? What is considered a rare date now still was minted in numbers that look so relative to its peers but hardly a qualified rarity in the coin world. Most collectors will probably not be doing those by date, but it is speculation either way. I wouldn't bet the farm on them.
Modern proofs are hot potatoes, especially any at grade 70 and especially especially anything at 70 that actually has a pop (perhaps artifical pop as many alledge for all cases) above single digits. There are people who are convinced, or say they are convinced, there is a significant, recognizable and consistently graded difference between 69 and 70. I am waiting for someone to actually test that by repeatedly (carefully) cracking out original 70 holdered coins and resubmittig them to get statistics on the consistency. I would sooner bet the farm that the number of grade 70 self-qualified experts will not be a growing population into the future before I would bet it on those slabs.
The point about the end of the state quarter program being a time when a lot of completed sets will be dumped on the market is a good one. The overlap with the prez and first significant others programs might create an interesting effect. For those who indulge in Mint direct products, the continuing series might fall out of favor around that time and might represent key issues later one. Again, speculation.
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<< <i>
<< <i>2007 GW dollars in mint wrapping. >>
Really? Anyone know how much the mint wrapped rolls of the 1st state quarter is right now? I wasn't collecting then, so I don't have any or know. >>
1 dont think mint wrapped quarters were offered until 2001.
So I guess that would put em at a bazillion dollars for each roll you could find.
Edited to add: There's a set of New Hampshire quarters on EBay that are mint wrapped so thats what I get for thinking.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
<< <i>It was primarily just this one coin that dropped over a couple year period around 1976. >>
The proof Ike's have also suffered. One collector reported 50% price declines on average for proof Ikes (excluding varieties). Again, in my opinion all the newer coins from the U.S. Mint have pushed Ike's to the backwater. Top pop mint state Ikes are still strong, however, there are only a very few coins in that category. Those few folks and dealers have done okay, while most everyone else in Ike's has lost their shirt. It was not one coin.
. >>
There have been other drops than only the '73 40% PR but they weren't so dramatic.
It is true that the pop top Ikes are few in number but even the just missed coins are
mostly at prices which have never been substantially higher. Some specific of these
coins may have dropped after higher grades were slabbed but generally any graded
mint state coin has been going up. There has been a drop for nice BU rolls over the
last couple years which is perplexing. Most are down only in the 20% area though.
<< <i>generally any graded mint state coin has been going up. >>
I don't track Ike's that closely, mostly reading other people's experience here. Dealer comments, of course, I take with a grain of salt. Are you tracking NGC coins and others, or is that only for PCGS coins? In most moderns the divergence between NGC and PCGS coin pricing is becoming almost comical. Do you observe that gap widening over the past five years (as I would expect)?
Maybe when I have more time, I'll dig into the Heritage archives for Ike's and see what the data for the past ten years and see if you are pulling my leg on these mint state Ike's or perhaps understating the case for price increases. If roll demand is down, that usually means that the average coin is going down in price, and only the top 10% or top 1% or top 0.2% are doing okay. It also usually means the average collector is losing money.
<< <i>
<< <i>generally any graded mint state coin has been going up. >>
I don't track Ike's that closely, mostly reading other people's experience here. Dealer comments, of course, I take with a grain of salt. Are you tracking NGC coins and others, or is that only for PCGS coins? In most moderns the divergence between NGC and PCGS coin pricing is becoming almost comical. Do you observe that gap widening over the past five years (as I would expect)?
Maybe when I have more time, I'll dig into the Heritage archives for Ike's and see what the data for the past ten years and see if you are pulling my leg on these mint state Ike's or perhaps understating the case for price increases. If roll demand is down, that usually means that the average coin is going down in price, and only the top 10% or top 1% or top 0.2% are doing okay. It also usually means the average collector is losing money. >>
I don't track the prices very closely at all and this is largely just what
I see in the catalogs and price lists. This isn't only the internet guides
but also "for sale" lists and things of this nature. The prices that I've
seen often sit still for protracted periods and then move again. This
goes back to 1980 when I first heard of anyone paying a premium for
Ikes and 1984 when the first lists came out.