What is the average grade of unselected modern commems

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  Xokie Posts: 63

  January 21, 2007 2:27AM

  This is an interesting question for those of us who collect modern commems, especially in terms of the lowest cost way to keep advancing a PF/MS70 set of commems. Seem to me the best data is to look at the pops for the modern commems from the grading services. There is a need to make two assumpions: (1) That the coins submitted are, on the average, equivalent to the total population, which I think is reasonable; and (2) that most folks want their grades regardless, i.e., do not use the option of not having their coins graded, slabbed and entered into the pops if they fall below a 69 or 70. Both the PCGS and NGC pop data bases are interesting; since I am not a member of PCGS and don't have access to the PCGS pops, I use the NGC pops, which are available to everyone. When you look at these pops for the modern commems, there is really a trend. While there are individual coins that deviate significantly, there is a strong tendancy for the PF 70s to be 5-20% of the total submittals for the period 1982-2005, with the silver running more to the low end and the gold toward the upper end. Then, for the Ben Franklins, we all of a sudden get a huge upward percentage of 70s, more like 50%. For MS, either the graders are more lenient, or the Mint just does a better job somehow. Submittals of gold commems have had from the beginning a strong tendancy to be 40-50% MS70s, jumping to extremely high percentages in the last year or so. Just as a data point, I submitted 4 proofs and 4 MS $5 old mint golds; all four of the proofs came back PF69; all four of the MS came back as MS70.
  
  As can be seen from the pops, and from the prices in the marketplace, PCGS grades a much lower percent of modern commems as PF70 or MS70 than does NGC. However, I am fairly sure I am also seeing a trend to PCGS giving a higher percentage of MS and PF70s in the last couple of years. I can only assume that most of this has come from improved quality control at the mint.
  
  One fiction that bothers me is the folks that attempt to track prices tend to show prices for MS/PF 65 and 69. First, as can be seen from the pops, almost all graded modern commems are either 69s or 70s. There is no point in accumulating sales data on any other basis. Second, how can there be a value cited, changing regularly, for a modern commem PF65, when there is a zero pop in both services for that commem in PF65? I realize that they must have some kind of estimating software to project and interpolate in some manner to fill in the blanks, but in this case it is silly.
  
  To answer you question, without actually doing the detailed math, I would guess that the average grade of the mint output for modern commems prior to 2005 would be about 69.2 for gold PF, 69.4 for MS; 69.05 for silver; 2005 to date looks like 69.5 for gold and maybe 69.3 for silver, both PF and MS.
  
  FWIW.

  Xokie

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  mirabela Posts: 5,201 ✭✭✭✭✭

  January 21, 2007 2:33AM

  Because nobody slabs a coin that won't go 69 or 70, pops are not a good source of this info. Admittedly, I am not a guy who does much at this end of the hobby, but those I have in my collection -- seven or eight, maybe nine of the dollars -- all seem to be 68 or 69 ish coins. The typical thing is a clean, well struck coin with a couple of pinpoint luster breaks. I have sent back a few that had actual marks, the kind of thing I would expect to limit a coin at 67.

  mirabela

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  Trime Posts: 1,863 ✭✭✭

  January 21, 2007 2:33PM

  Sorry not to get more hard data.
  I realize that there is ascertainment bias in POP #'s as those who submit coins may be more attuned to grade (if they buy from a secondary market )and much more likely to pay the price of grading if preliminary review screens out the lesser grade coins.
  I am sure that someone ( many ) people buys bulk lots of moderns from the mint and screens for highest grade coins.
  So the grade distribution knowledge must exist.
  Hope i can stimulate even more data and opinions.
  

  Trime

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  mrcommem Posts: 1,214 ✭✭✭✭✭

  January 22, 2007 2:22AM

  I used to have a collection of Modern commemoratives that I had acquired from the mint from 1984 to 2002. I sent about fifty of them to be graded back in 1999. Virtually all of them came back MS69 or PR69. I think I have two proofs and two uncirculated came back MS68. One uncirculated coin, a Smithsonian Dollar, came back MS70. I also sent in eleven West Point Military accademy coins, 1 PR69, 9 MS69 and 2 MS70. By what I have sent to be graded the quality of modern commems is almost always MS69. The only coin that could be considered an exception would be the Washington Half Unc. These were not made with as much care and usually grade MS67 maybe MS68 if you are lucky.

  Mr Commem
  Overland Trail Collection Showcase
  Dahlonega Type Set-2008 PCGS Best Exhibited Set

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  Trime Posts: 1,863 ✭✭✭

  January 23, 2007 9:08AM

  Mrcommem,
  Feedback on and offline is failly consistent with your response.
  Different world the modern Commem grade spread.
  We have the 70 point ( present scale), 100 point (proposed), and 3 point scale (modern mint collector coins).
  

  Trime

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  perfectstrike Posts: 677 ✭✭

  January 23, 2007 9:21AM

  I'm not sure I'm a good sampling. I've ordered about half the modern silver commem sets. I usually order about 5 of each when I purchase. I'd guess that 99% are MS68 or better and about 99% are PR69 or better. Those that don't make the grade tend to be real dogs, I send these back now. I didn't always do that.
  
  David

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