2006-W Gold 4-Coin Set Now Backordered....

itsnotjustme · January 20, 2007 2:20PM

All the others went to backordered shortly before the sellout (and my backordered plats are still backordered and likely not coming). With the recent NN figures in the 9,500 range, I would venture to predict the mintage will be 10,000.

I will re-post the summary I made a couple weeks back on these here.
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I was asked by Private Message: I saw your post where you think the 2006-W gold 4 coin sets will be winners, maybe not huge winners, but winners nontheless......do you still think it's worth buying a few sets to stash away? >>

My Reply
Hello XXXXX,
I do. Mostly for the fractions, but I hold hope even the 1 oz is a winner. Here's why:

First, a straight mintage comparison to other years by it self is not enough. For some people, bullion is bullion, a way to put part of your money into a hard asset. Bullion buyers do not care what date/mintmark the coin is.

That said, I asked myself if other bullion coins held premiums based on mintage. And they do. I'll use the 2007 Red Book mintage figures and a recent grey sheet for prices. Here are comparisons of common bullion vs lower mintage bullion:

1/10 Oz. (2006-W Estimate: 22K)
$65-70 Commons (200K and over)
$165 Scarce (1988 159,500)

1/4 Oz (2006-W Estimate: 14.5K)
$170 Commons(41K and over)
$340 Scarce (1991 36,100) (Note: 1990 with 41K has hardly any premium)

1/2 Oz (2006-W Estimate 13.5K)
$325 Commons (60K and over)
$1,085 Scarce (1991 24,100) (Note many issues with 30-40K carry moderate premiums)

1 Oz (2006-W Estimate: 51K)
$650 Commons (143K and over)
------ Scarce (Lowest mintage is 143K and carries no premium)

That said, I feel the fractionals have huge upside potential where in each case these will have substantially lower mintage than the prior keys that already carry 100 to 250% premiums over commoms. The 1 oz is less clear. It is looking like about 40% the mintage of the prior lowest, but that prior low carries no premium.

notwilight · January 20, 2007 2:24PM

Thanks for the update. Sounds like a winner.

ddbird · January 20, 2007 2:24PM

Nice analysis...

My brother and I picked up 4 1/2s and 2 1/4s and will be holding them for a while...

I think 3-5 years down the 1/2 could easily be a 1,200 coin

HonoluluDude · January 20, 2007 2:43PM

Thanks, just ordered a couple.

Joflax · January 20, 2007 2:47PM

<< <i>Nice analysis...

My brother and I picked up 4 1/2s and 2 1/4s and will be holding them for a while...

I think 3-5 years down the 1/2 could easily be a 1,200 coin >>

Now that is something I would be very happy to see , It does seem logical though

CoinMaster1229 · January 20, 2007 3:30PM

I ordered some 4 coin sets 1/18/2007 they show ( In Stock & Reserved )

ddbird · January 20, 2007 3:31PM

<< <i>I ordered some 4 coin sets 1/18/2007 they show ( In Stock & Reserved )

>>

Today is the 21st....

aficionado · January 20, 2007 4:12PM

They were backordered, until a few days ago, when there was no notice, that lasted a couple/few days, now they are back to backordered.

Who knows what the Mint is up to.

clackamas · January 20, 2007 4:19PM

These need to sell out before the fractionals take off. The fact you could still get the 1/2 OZ in the set kept a cieling on the 1/2 OZ. I hope they are done. I ordered 7 more on Thursday. My order is on hold but the coins show in stock and reserved.

MacCrimmon · January 20, 2007 5:22PM

I'm exhausted....I just finished prying open those stupid capsules on a bunch of sets.....it took 2 bloody hours. Plus, the coins "were" covered in lint, and of course plastic bits. Of course, I struck in my pipes and charmed the garbage right off of their surfaces.

Anyone else notice all the gold flecks on the capsules and on the felt? I can say felt, right?

jetpro · January 20, 2007 10:36PM

Yet even the 2001 one ouncers with a mintage of 143,000 have the nearly the same value according to the guides as the proof coin with only a 24,580 mintage. How can this be?

itsnotjustme · January 21, 2007 12:10AM

jetpro,
To me that means there are not enough 1 oz gold collectors to cause any shortage of supply for that date, so the value is soley a function of bullion. The question is, with a 51K mintage, distributed primarily to collectors/investors/speculators, while demand outpace supply or is 51K also plenty to go around?

Goldbully · January 21, 2007 12:29AM

Great info itsnotjustme.

You got my blood running....I got back my fractionals from PCGS a week ago.

1 1 11254670 79980 2006-W $5 Eagle US MS69
2 1 11254671 79982 2006-W $10 Eagle US MS69
2 2 11254672 79982 2006-W $10 Eagle US MS70
3 1 11254673 79983 2006-W $25 Eagle US MS69
3 2 11254674 79983 2006-W $25 Eagle US MS69
3 3 11254675 79983 2006-W $25 Eagle US MS70

jetpro · January 21, 2007 12:30AM

In the few months I've been in this hobby, I realize that 51K is a small amount relative to the other years and as such should do quite well. With an expected rising bullion price combined with a PCGS first strike holder I like our chances.

itsnotjustme · January 21, 2007 2:34AM

My understanding is PCGS is not doing FS on the gold W's. And sets ordered now would be too late for that anyhow.

RotatedRainbows · January 21, 2007 2:43AM

Looks like the 10,000 set estimate just might be accurate since the latest figures put the sets at around 9600 and the sets went from backordered to in stock to backordered again in only a couple days. I would expect that the mint got all the remaining sets together the last time they were on backorder for a few weeks so they could get ready for 2007 production. It makes sense that they would sell out quickly if there were only about 400 sets left after they went back in stock after being on backorder the last few weeks.

CoinMaster1229 · January 21, 2007 2:43AM

I ordered some 4 coin sets 1/18/2007 they show ( In Stock & Reserved )

Mine said back ordered at first, then changed two days later to in stock & reserved.

tyler267 · January 21, 2007 3:15AM

I had the same experience as Coinmaster, I placed an order on 1/17 was listed as backorder. I just checked it today and the order is instock and reserved, with no cancel box. Now if that would only happen to my 4pc plat order.

Joflax · January 21, 2007 3:20AM

All the fractionals except for the 1 oz seem to be trading at $100 over their purchase price over the last few days . I cannot wait to see what happens when the sets sell out.
I think that the 1 oz will remain a dog even at 51K...but the fractionals will make us very happy

dthigpen · January 21, 2007 3:21AM

It's a shame that the darn Coinstar machine won't redeem these things for real money.

BigE · January 21, 2007 4:03AM

dthigpen, they dont accept the holed coins you collect either-------BigE

dthigpen · January 21, 2007 4:26AM

<< <i>dthigpen, they dont accept the holed coins you collect either-------BigE >>

Do too!

BigE · January 21, 2007 4:33AM

I forgot, you can tie a string to them and pull them out------------BigE

dthigpen · January 21, 2007 4:35AM

<< <i>I forgot, you can tie a string to them and pull them out------------BigE >>

Exactly!

Goldbully · January 22, 2007 3:03AM

The 4 pc. Unc sets have got to be coming to an end very soon.

The fractionals are making this set quite attractive.

Anyone else think the end is near????

Mint

BigE · January 22, 2007 6:31AM

Check out what it says now on the setsText---BigE

ONETHREE · January 22, 2007 6:40AM

Yes there supposed to ship the same date as the 1/2 oz I ordered December 20. Of course the shipping date on my order has changed and been pushed back at least ten times. I will assume these are now on that same schedule. If the ASE are any indication, we might see this "class" of orders several months from now, or we might not see them at all.

2006-W Gold 4-Coin Set Now Backordered....

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